The Fort Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. We’ve got a long stretch of onshore and cross-shore winds messing up what little swell is showing. We’re talking about The Fort, a consistent reef setup, but it’s going to be a battle against the chop for most of this run. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real window starts this Friday morning, the 14th. We’ve got a weak 2ft SW swell, with a long 15-second period. The wind is light but cross-onshore, so it’s going to have a bit of texture. The combined energy is weak at 287, so it’s marginal at best, just small lines with a bit of bump on them. The afternoon sees the wind pick up, so it’s not getting any better.

Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th are more of the same. The swell stays small, around 3ft from the SW, with a decent 16-17 second period. Saturday morning has a light onshore wind, but it’s still only a 1 out of 10 for quality. It’s a long-period swell, which can be tricky on a reef, but at this size, it's just not doing much. There will be some clean-ish moments, but don’t expect much. The energy is moderate, around 400-460.

Monday the 17th, we drop a little more. The swell is 3ft, but the wind is on it again. By the afternoon, a moderate cross-shore breeze kicks up, and it’s a write-off.

Now, here's where it gets a bit ugly. From Tuesday the 18th through the end of next week, we see a shift. The swell direction goes WNW, and the period drops to a short, junky 8 seconds. The wave heights bump up a bit – Tuesday morning is 5ft, Wednesday morning is 5ft – but this is all windswell. The energy is moderate to strong (up to 652 on Wednesday morning), but it's messy. The winds are mostly moderate cross-shore or cross-onshore, and the wave comment is just "poor surf conditions" across the board. This is not a surfer's window. This is the kind of setup that, with that strength of wind and a beach break, might be more interesting for the kite crew than for us paddlers. I wouldn't bother.

We get a tiny breather on Saturday the 22nd. Still junky WNW swell at 4ft, but the wind drops to a light breeze. It’s still only marginal, but there might be a salvageable one or two if you’re desperate. The period is a weak 6-7 seconds, though, so it’s not going to have any push.

Next Sunday the 23rd, the swell is a bit bigger, 5ft, but it’s still short-period and the wind is back up. Poor conditions again.

Monday the 24th is interesting, but only for the experts. We see the biggest swell of the period, 7ft from the WNW, but with that short, 8-second period. The combined energy is strong at 993. This is too big for beginners and the quality is still marked as marginal. For a crowd-free reef, it might be powerful and fat, but with the cross-onshore wind, it’s going to be a grindy, lumpy mess. This is one for the experienced locals only.

After that, the swell fades fast. The last week of August is looking like a total drought. We’re back down to 2ft to 3ft of SW groundswell, but the wind is relentless, with fresh cross-shore breezes. The energy is weak to moderate, and the period is around 14-16 seconds. It’s cleanish, but there’s just nothing to ride. The conditions are consistently poor from the 25th to the 27th.

Then, a glimmer of hope for the end of the run. On Friday the 28th, we see a new SSW groundswell start to fill in. It’s 4ft with a solid 16-second period, and the energy is building, hitting 838 on the Friday afternoon. But the wind is still a fresh cross-shore breeze, spoiling the party. The Saturday morning of the 29th is smaller at 4ft, with the same 13-second period and a light cross-onshore wind. It's still marked as poor, but it’s the only sign of life at the end of a long, flat spell.

Honestly, there are no standouts in this whole window. The closest thing we have to a chance is if you can get out Monday the 24th when it’s biggest, but you’d better be on your game. The rest is just a waiting game. This is shaping up to be a classic late-winter flat spell. The swell will come back, it always does, but don’t hold your breath for the next week and a half.

Rusty.

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