The Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, looking at the next 16 days for The Cove. Gotta level with you, it’s a rough spell. The swell is tiny, the wind is almost always wrong, and the whole thing is a flat, choppy mess. There’s a long stretch of nothing worth paddling for, so don’t rush.

The first hint of anything doesn’t show up until Wednesday, September 9th. Even then, it’s only a weak 3ft swell from the northeast, with a short period of 8 seconds. The wind is onshore from the east at 9 mph, so it’s going to be bumpy. The combined wave energy is moderate (106), but it’s a low-quality, onshore mess. The Cove is a beach and reef setup, so with that short period and onshore wind, it’s not going to be clean. It’s a “poor surf conditions” call, so leave the board at home.

That little bump fades fast. Thursday the 10th drops back to 3ft, still onshore, and then it’s back to tiny, weak junk for days. From Friday the 11th all the way through to Thursday the 17th of September, the swell is mostly under 2ft. The wind is a mix of cross and cross-on, but none of it is good. The wave energy is low, barely cracking 41. It’s a dead period.

Now, the one thing that catches my eye – and I mean the *only* thing – is towards the end of the run. Starting Friday, September 18th, the swell picks up. We’re looking at 4ft from the north-northeast, with a period of 9 seconds. That’s a solid, moderate groundswell, and the combined energy jumps to 250. That’s the most power we’ve seen in the whole forecast. The water’s a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, about 87°.

Here’s the problem though: the wind is still onshore from the east-northeast at 9 mph. The swell size (4ft) is getting into the intermediate zone, but the onshore wind is going to chop it up. It’s a “poor surf conditions” call again, and the wind state is “unknown,” which usually means it’s not clean. For a spot that’s fairly exposed to the northeast, the direction is okay, but the wind is a killer. This is the best on offer, but it’s not a standout. It’s a promise of a swell that’s let down by the wind. If you’re desperate for a wave, you could have a look, but don’t expect glassy perfection.

The last few days from the 19th keep the swell around 3ft to 4ft, with the same northeast direction and more onshore wind. The combined energy stays strong (197 to 223), but the wind is 12 to 19 mph. That’s getting into a fresh breeze territory, and it’s gonna be lumpy and choppy. That setup, with a beach-and-reef break and significant wind, honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, the bottom line: there’s really nothing to get excited about for the first 12 days. The one window of swell on the 18th and 19th is the only chance, but the wind is working against it. Keep an eye on the forecasts, but I wouldn’t be clearing your schedule.

Rusty.

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