Flagpoles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here, and I’ve got the dirt on Flagpoles for the next couple weeks.

Right off the bat, Flagpoles is a beach and reef setup, and it’s usually very consistent, but I gotta be straight with you—this forecast is a tough one. The swell energy is weak for the first week and a half, and the winds aren’t doing us any favours. We’re looking at a long gap of pretty much nothing worth paddling out for.

Starting from Wednesday, September 9th, through to Monday, September 21st, it’s a write-off. Swell heights bob around from 0.7ft to 3ft, but the wind’s mostly cross-on or onshore, and the period is short, between 4 and 9 seconds. The combined wave energy is low—mostly two-digit numbers, peaking at just 59 on the 16th. It’s choppy, weak, and messy. For beginners, the swell’s tiny, but the conditions are so poor it’s not even fun for a learner. There is no standout here. You’re better off staying dry.

Now, we finally see a pulse around Tuesday, September 22nd. The swell jumps to 6ft from the NE, with a period of 7 seconds, and the energy cranks up to 419—that’s moderate to strong energy. Problem is, the wind is a cross-on from the SE at 16 mph, making for a choppy, poor-quality surf. This is getting into the zone where it’s too big for beginners and the wind is ruining the shape. It’s not a paddle surfer’s day.

Wednesday, September 23rd morning, the swell holds at 6ft from the N, still cross-on from the SE, but the energy jumps to 692—that’s strong energy. Still, the wind keeps it from being clean. By the afternoon, the wind swings to a cross-shore from the SSE at 6 mph, and the swell is 6ft from the NNE. The rating bumps to a 1/10—marginal at best. The period is short at 8 seconds, so it’s not a classic groundswell.

The real hope comes Thursday, September 24th morning. Swell hits 8ft from the NE, with a period of 8 seconds, and the energy is a solid 790—strong. Wind is light cross-shore from the SSE at 6 mph. Now, this is getting into expert-only territory because it’s over 8ft, but with light cross-shore wind, it could actually clean up and offer some punchy waves. It’s scored a 2/10 for the period, which is the best we’ve got. This is the one to circle on the calendar if you’re good enough to handle it. The short period means it’ll be a bit wally, but there’s energy to play with. Keep in mind, with that size and a beach-and-reef setup, if the wind stays light, it might actually be a decent, albeit heavy, session for advanced crew.

Overall, there’s a massive dry spell from September 9th to 21st, then a late burst of energy that’s only really for experienced surfers on the 24th. The water temp anomaly isn’t given, so can’t say if it’s warmer or colder than usual, but the early weeks are a no-go.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on that Thursday the 24th.

Rusty.

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