Flagpoles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let me give you the honest word on what’s cookin’.

Straight up, Flagpoles is a bit of a heartbreaker over this whole 16-day stretch. We’ve got a beach and reef setup, exposed enough to catch a little something, and the water’s sitting around 86°, which is about average for this time of year, nothing wild. But the swell? Man, it’s just not happening. The whole window is choked with tiny, weak waves.

First up, Sunday the 26th of July. The afternoon brings a tiny 1 foot of swell pushing from the ENE, but the wind is a cross-on from the SE, so it’s messy and choppy. Combined wave energy is a paltry 14 – really weak stuff. We’re looking at poor surf conditions straight out of the gate. The morning of Monday the 27th does go glassy – absolute perfection with a light NW breeze at 6 mph – but the problem is the swell is basically non-existent at 0.7 ft. You’d be fighting for a ripple. The afternoon picks up a clean cross-off breeze from the SW at 9 mph, but the wave size is still just 0.7 ft. Not worth paddling out for.

Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th follow the same sad pattern. Clean conditions with cross-off or even offshore winds at times, especially Wednesday morning with a solid 12 mph WSW offshore blast. But the swell maxes out at a pathetic 0.7 ft to 1 ft. Wave energy is still in the weak double digits (8 to 11). It’s just too small, even for a beginner board. The swell period is a short 8 seconds, meaning no push behind them.

By Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st, the swell drops even further to 0.3 ft. It’s just flat. We’re talking combined energies of 2 to 9. There’s no way around it – this is a dead run.

Heading into the first week of August, things try to lift a tiny bit. Sunday the 2nd of August, we get a 2 ft swell from the SE, but the wind is a messy cross-shore from the S and SSE at 12 mph, and the period drops to a shocking 4 seconds. That’s just wind chop. Energy creeps up to 26, which is still very weak, and the surf quality is “poor.” Monday the 3rd has the same 3 ft of weak SE swell, but period is still a shocking 4 to 5 seconds, with cross to cross-on winds. The combined energy finally hits the 50s, which is at the very bottom of “moderate,” but it’s such short period wind swell that the shape is just crumbly and onshore. Not worth your time.

From August 4th through the 10th, it’s a slow, sad fade out. Swell hover around 2 ft to 3 ft, but it’s all short-period (4-5 seconds) junk from the ESE, with cross-on or onshore winds. The wave energy mostly sits in the teens and twenties. The period does jump to 10 seconds on the 8th of August with a 2 ft swell from the NE, giving an energy reading of 47 – still weak – but the wind stays cross-on and choppy. Every single entry in the file says “poor surf conditions” with a score of 0 out of 10.

The best of the worst: Honestly, the only moment that could even be called a stand-out is the Wednesday morning of the 29th of July. The wind is a clean offshore from the WSW at 12 mph, and the wave state is “moderate offshore and clean.” But the swell is only 0.7 ft from the ENE. If you were a beginner on a massive foam board, you *might* catch a knee-high ripple. For anyone else, it’s a write-off.

There is a big gap of no real surf from the start all the way through to the end. We’re talking 16 days of virtually nothing. For Flagpoles, a blank run like this is pretty normal for the season.

Given the tiny, weak swell and the persistent onshore/cross-shore winds, this setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer looking for some flat-water practice than for anyone with a paddle. Don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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