Flagpoles Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this stretch is gonna be a tough one. We’ve got a solid 16 days of forecast here, but the honest truth is there’s barely a ripple worth paddling for. The swells are tiny, the wind is mostly junk, and the scores are flat across the board. I’m not seeing any standouts, no hidden gems, no magic windows. It’s a long, dry spell.

Let’s start with Flagpoles. This is a beach and reef setup, pretty exposed to the NE, which is the direction the swell needs to come from to work best. But the water is sitting at 86°F – a touch warmer than normal (1°F anomaly), so that’s a nice bit of trivia for a swim. For the surf? It’s almost non-existent.

From Thursday the 16th right through to the end of the month, we’re looking at tiny swell heights. Most mornings you’ll see something like 1.0 ft to 2 ft, and the afternoons are a mix of 0.7 ft to 3 ft, but the period is short – often just 4 to 7 seconds. That’s weak, windswell junk. The combined energy is super low, rarely breaking into triple digits (you’ll see numbers like 17, 8, 24, 29 – all weak). The wave comment is consistently “poor surf conditions.”

The wind is a problem, too. Hardly any glassy mornings. On Thursday morning the 16th, we get a glassy 3 mph south wind, but the swell is a pathetic 1 ft. After that, it’s cross-on, cross, or cross-off breezes, and by the afternoons, it’s often choppy and messy. A few mornings are clean, but with zero swell, it doesn’t matter.

The best I can tell you is that on the morning of Thursday the 16th, with the glassy conditions and the tiniest bit of NE swell (1 ft, 7 seconds), you might get a knee-high clean-up set if you’re desperate. But that’s not a recommendation; that’s a consolation prize. The rest of the month is a total write-off for surf.

There’s really no standout to highlight. The whole 16-day window is a gap. If you’ve got a kite, the afternoon on the 18th or 19th has moderate cross-shore breeze and a bit more chop, so maybe it’s more interesting for that than paddle surfing. But for a proper wave? Forget it. It’s a blank run, and for this area, that’s not unusual when the trade winds lock in.

Stay patient, mates. The forecast can always change.

Rusty.

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