Stinson Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the outlook for Stinson Beach over the next couple of weeks. Gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch here. The pattern is dominated by constant cross-onshore wind, and that’s just making a mess of things for the most part. The water temperature is sitting at 60.8°, which is a whopping 5.4° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s really unusual, feels more like bath water than the usual chilly Pacific.

The first real chance of anything rideable doesn’t show up until Tuesday afternoon, July 7th. Even then, it’s a bit of a struggle. You’ll get a 4.6ft swell from the WNW at 11 seconds, but it’s under a 25 km/h cross-on breeze, creating poor, choppy conditions. The combined energy is moderate (947). It’s not one to get excited about. Honestly, that Tuesday session is a write-off.

Wednesday morning, July 8th, brings the most interesting moment of the early forecast. A long-period groundswell arrives from the SW at 18 seconds, with a 2.9ft face. That 18-second period is a proper long-period swell, which at a beach break means it’ll likely break straight and be a bit tricky, but the energy is there (1237). The wind is a gentler cross-on at 15 km/h, so it’s just fairly choppy. It’s marginal, but that long-period pulse is the standout option in a lean week for surfers who know how to handle it.

Thursday morning, July 9th, gets a 7.5ft NW swell at 9 seconds. The combined energy is strong (1687). That size is pushing over 5ft, so it’s getting too big for beginners, but not quite expert-only. The morning is still cross-on with a gentle breeze. It’s another marginal call, but with that much energy, there could be some punchy, close-outy walls. The afternoon, like most, turns choppy again.

Friday morning, July 10th, offers a 5.6ft WNW swell with a light onshore wind from the W at 10 km/h. It’s still marginal. You’ve got a week of mostly poor afternoons after this, with consistent cross-on winds leaving the lineup messy.

Further out, Friday morning July 17th catches the eye – a 7.5ft NW swell at 9 seconds slams in, with strong energy (1614). The wind is a light cross-on at 10 km/h. That morning is the best shot in the second week, with real size and a bit less chop. Anything over 8ft would be for experts only, and this isn’t quite there, so confident intermediates could have a crack. The rest of the month ebbs and flows with similar patterns: small to moderate WNW swell, but almost always under a cross-onshore breeze.

If you are a kite surfer, a lot of these choppy afternoons with the stronger 25 km/h winds and 5ft+ swell will look a lot more fun than they will for a paddle surfer.

Bottom line: The standout morning is Wednesday, July 8th, for that rare 18-second SW groundswell, though it’s small. The other real hope is Friday morning, July 17th, for the bigger 7.5ft NW swell. Everything else is about managing expectations in a choppy, cross-onshore world.

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