Stinson Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's see what we've got.

Alright folks, let's be straight up. The next couple of weeks at Stinson Beach are looking like a bit of a challenge. We've got some consistent swell rolling in, but the wind just won't play nice. For the most part, we're looking at a cross-onshore breeze that's gonna keep things choppy and messy. The water's also sitting at a very unusual 61°, which is a solid 5° warmer than normal for this time of year – that's a real standout.

The first real chance of anything decent doesn't come until the morning of Friday, July 10th. We get a bit of a reprieve with light offshore winds from the west, blowing at just 6 mph. The swell is a solid 6 ft out of the WNW, with a period of 9 seconds. The energy is moderate (733). It's not perfect, but that offshore wind will be a welcome change from all the chop, making it the cleanest window we've seen so far in the 16-day outlook. It's a marginal call with the tide, but that's your best bet early on.

Then, we have a real standout that pops up way out there on the morning of Friday, July 17th. The forecast is showing a bigger pulse of swell – 8 ft from the WNW – with a period of 8 seconds. The wind switches to a light offshore from the southwest at just 3 mph. The wave energy will be strong (1393). Now, 8 ft is getting into expert territory, and with a shorter period like 8 seconds, it'll be a bit lumpy and won't have that long-period grinding power. The light offshore wind is a major positive for cleaner faces, but this is a long-range call, so take it with a pinch of salt – it’s promising but far from certain.

Following that, the morning of Saturday, July 18th, sees the swell dropping back to a much smaller 5 ft from the WNW, but with a longer 9-second period and a light 6 mph offshore from the SW. The energy is moderate (682). Again, a marginal tide makes this a question mark, but the conditions are shaping up better than most other windows.

For the rest of the period, it's a slog. The wind stays cross-onshore or onshore for the vast majority of the time, churning up the beach break. The swell hangs around in the 5 ft to 7 ft range through the middle of the month, which would be fine if the wind cooperated, but it doesn't. The quality just isn't there for a good paddle session. For a beginner, anything over 5 ft is too much, and the messy conditions make it even less appealing. Honestly, with this setup, a kite surfer might find it more interesting than a paddle surfer.

Don't get too down, though. The break is fairly consistent, so it tends not to stay flat for long. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because one good wind shift could change everything.

Rusty, signing off.

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