Stinson Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's get straight into it.

Alright, folks, it’s a tough run ahead for Stinson Beach. Looking at the whole 16-day stretch, we’ve got a long stretch of nothing special. The consistency is there, but the quality is just not on our side. The wind is the main culprit, stubbornly cross-on or cross for most of the period, keeping things choppy and messy. You're looking at a solid 16-day window with really only a couple of mornings that might just squeak by as surfable, but nothing to get the heart rate up.

Thursday, September 10th, is a non-starter. We’ve got a long-period 3 ft SW swell hitting, and that sounds okay until you factor in the 20 km/h WNW winds. It’s choppy, it’s messy, and honestly, it’s a write-off.

Moving into Friday, September 11th, the morning is clean enough with light 10 km/h winds, but the swell is still that small, long-period stuff at 3 ft. It’s just not packing the punch you need. The afternoon winds pick up and it’s back to choppy.

Saturday, September 12th sees the swell dropping to 2 ft. The morning is cross-on and choppy, but the afternoon gets interesting for the wrong reasons. The swell jumps to 7 ft from the WNW, but with a short, weak period of only 7 seconds and a fresh 30 km/h cross-shore wind. This creates lumpy, bumpy conditions. That energy reading is 591 – moderate – but with that wind and period, it’s a battle. This setup actually looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Sunday, September 13th is another washout with a tiny 2 ft SW swell in the morning and a 30 km/h cross-shore in the afternoon.

Now, let’s talk about the only true standout, and you have to look close. Monday, September 14th morning. We’ve got a 5 ft WNW swell with a 9-second period. The energy is solid at 509 (moderate). The key here is the wind: a light 10 km/h W breeze, keeping it just cross-on but with very small wind ripples. The file tags it as “marginal,” but compared to everything else, this is the best you’ll get. It’s not perfect, but it’s your best shot at a clean(ish) wave.

After that, Tuesday, September 15th morning offers another brief glimmer. Swell drops to 5 ft WNW, period is short at 8 seconds, but the wind is almost nothing from the SSW at 5 km/h. It’s light cross-on again. Marginal, but possible.

After that, from Wednesday, September 16th, right through the end of the month, the winds stay stubborn and the swell stays small and messy. There are a couple of mornings with “marginal” tags on the 18th, 21st, and 22nd, but the wind is always messing with it. The groundswell that tries to show up on the 25th has a super long 22-second period, but it’s only 1 ft, making it weak and fickle for a beach break like Stinson.

We finally get some proper groundswell trying to rotate back in around the 25th and 26th of September. A 1 ft SW swell with a very long period of 22 seconds sounds promising for a reef or point, but for Stinson’s beach-break setup, that long period will likely just straighten out and produce a weak, hard-to-ride wave. The wind is still cross-shore and bumpy, so it’s another pass.

The water temperature is sitting at a very unusual 64°F, which is a full 6°F warmer than normal. It’ll feel like a warm bath, but that’s about the only highlight.

Bottom line: This is a grim outlook. We’re looking at a 16-day stretch with no good surf. The best options are the mornings of Monday the 14th or Tuesday the 15th for a marginal, clean-ish paddle on a small, weak groundswell. Otherwise, save your energy. The blank run is real. Forecasts can change, but for now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more