Stinson Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, letting you know what's cookin' for Stinson Beach over the next couple of weeks.

It's a tough outlook, I'm not gonna lie. The water is sitting at 60°, which is a solid 4° warmer than usual for this time of year, so that's a nice little bonus if you're just looking for a paddle. But the surf? It's a real struggle. For the entire 16-day window, the conditions are just poor. The wind is almost always coming from the west or west-northwest, which is a cross-onshore or cross-shore breeze for Stinson Beach, and it's keeping the ocean chopped up and messy. The models are showing moments with moderate wave energy, with the combined swell energy hitting values like 509 (on Tuesday the 21st) and even climbing over 1000 on the 25th, 27th, and 28th, but it's all being blown out. There's no day where the wind switches to a clean offshore, so the quality is just not there.

We get a little tease on Tuesday the 21st of July. The afternoon has a gentle 4ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, and the wind is a light onshore breeze from the SSW at 9 mph. The energy is there at 509, but it's still onshore and the report says "poor surf conditions." It's just not a goer.

The whole first week is a write-off. The wind is relentless. Every day is a variation of cross-onshore or cross-shore winds from the WNW, blowing between 9 and 19 mph. The swell period is mostly long, between 11 and 16 seconds, which would normally mean good shape, but the wind is just ruining it. The waves are small, mostly 2ft to 4ft, and it's choppy. There's a period on the 24th of July where the swell period hits 24 seconds, a very long groundswell, but it's only 2ft and the wind is still on it. That's a waste of a good swell.

Moving into the second week, it's more of the same. The wind stays on it. On the morning of the 28th of July, we see a 8ft WNW swell, but it's only an 8-second period, so it's a weak, wind-driven storm chop. The wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy. That's kite surfing territory, not paddle surfing. The energy is 1462, but for a surfer, it's ugly. The 5th of August morning shows a 5ft WNW swell with a 10-second period, but again, the wind is a cross-onshore breeze. It's just a pattern that won't let up.

Honestly, the only real "marginal" window, which is just a 1 out of 10, comes on a few mornings where the wind is a bit lighter, like the 30th of July morning with a gentle 9 mph cross-onshore wind and a 3ft SW swell. But even then, it's still cross-onshore, so it's not clean. The long-range stuff on the 3rd of August morning has a light onshore breeze from the SW at 3 mph with a 2ft SW swell, but it's small and weak with an energy of only 158.

There are no standouts here. This is a blank run. The forecast is locked in on poor conditions, so there's no hope of a sneaky session. The best bet is to keep an eye on it, but for now, the board stays in the bag.

Rusty.

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