Stinson Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what Stinson Beach has cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: the first week is a tough one. We’ve got a bit of swell in the water, but the wind is a constant problem. The best looking wave energy is actually pretty solid, with a long-period groundswell from the SW pushing in, but it’s all being messed up by cross-onshore breezes. The water is sitting at 60°F, which is a solid 4°F warmer than normal for this time of year – you’ll be comfortable in a shorty or even just boardshorts if you’re tough.

The first real chance for a surf comes early on Monday morning, July 20th. We’ve got a 2ft SW groundswell with a very long 16-second period, and the combined energy is moderate at 414. The wind is a light SSW breeze, blowing onshore but light enough that it might be glassy early. It’s a beginner-friendly size, but the consistency is just “fairly consistent” so don’t expect a wave every minute. The crowds are “sometimes” a thing, so you might have it to yourself on a Monday morning. It’s marginal, but it’s the best of a rough start.

The next couple of days are a bust. The wind picks up every afternoon, and the mornings are all cross-on or onshore. Skip the entire stretch from Monday afternoon through to Sunday, July 26th. It’s just choppy, blown-out, and not worth paddling out for.

Now, hold onto your leggies, because the end of the first week and into the second week gets interesting. It’s not perfect, but it’s different.

On Monday morning, July 27th, the swell direction swings around to a NW windswell. The height jumps to 8ft, but the period drops to a short 8 seconds. The energy is a strong 1606 (moderate to strong). This is expert territory at 8ft, and the short period means it’ll be a bit of a washing machine. The wind is cross-shore from the NW at 12 mph, which is better than onshore but still makes for a lumpy surface. Not a standout, but the only game in town.

The real highlight of the whole forecast comes on Tuesday morning, July 28th. We’ve got a 8ft NW swell, still short-period at 9 seconds, but the wind is light from the NW at 9 mph and cross-shore. This is the cleanest the surf will be all week. The energy is very strong at 1878. This is a big, powerful, lumpy day for experts only. If you’re experienced and can handle a bit of chop, this is your window. The afternoon will blow out again, so get it early.

The rest of the second week is a slow fade. The swells drop back to 3ft to 6ft, with windswell from the WNW and short periods. The winds are generally light onshore or cross-on, which means small, weak, and crumbly surf. By the time we hit August 1st and 2nd, the swell is inconsistent and the period is short, making for weak, mushy waves. The energy drops to moderate levels (around 400-700). Nothing to get excited about.

To sum it up: the first week is a write-off due to wind. The solitary standout is the morning of Tuesday, July 28th, with a big, powerful NW swell and light wind for experts. The rest of the run is mostly small, weak, and bumpy. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because this run of poor quality can’t last forever.

Rusty.

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