Stinson Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you about the next couple of weeks at Stinson Beach. It’s gonna be a grind for most of it, and I mean that. We’ve got a whole lot of days where the wind and the surf just aren’t on the same page, leaving us with lumpy, choppy, cross-onshore junk. The good news is, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, but it’s a long tunnel.

Right now, things are looking pretty sad. For the next several days, we're looking at small, weak surf. Forget about scoring; this is a paddle-around-and-get-frustrated kind of setup. We’re seeing swells around 1ft to 2ft with moderate cross-onshore winds. The energy is weak, with combined wave energy readings in the low 200s to mid-300s (256, 301, 384). It's clean-ish at times, with the wind dying off on Sunday morning, but there just isn't any power to make it worthwhile. This poor run looks like it'll hold through the 25th and 26th. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing while you're getting skunked.

A bit of a pulse shows up on the 27th with a morning swell of 6ft, but the period is a weak 7 seconds and the wind is still going to mess it up. It’s a tease, a bit of energy at 794 but no shape to it. The end of August and the first day of September continue in the same vein – small, short-period, cross-onshore slop. Even when the swell pushes up to 7ft on the 30th, the period is only 8 seconds and the cross-shore wind is fresh, creating lumpy conditions. Honestly, if the wind keeps up like this and the surf is junky, this setup looks more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers.

Now, let's talk about that light at the end of the tunnel. It’s a long way off, but things start to look more promising as we get into the first week of September. On the morning of Tuesday the 2nd, the swell jumps to 8ft from the WNW with a 9-second period. The wind is light, which is a huge plus. The combined energy is a strong 1833. This is the first real sign of life we’ve had all forecast.

But the real standout, the one you should have circled on your calendar, is the morning of Thursday the 3rd. We're looking at a solid 10ft of NW groundswell with a 10-second period. The combined energy reading is a very strong 3041 (that’s a four-digit number, folks). Winds are light and offshore-ish (WSW) and that should groom it into proper shape. This is a big-time swell for Stinson. This size is strictly for experienced surfers only— it’s way over the head and not for beginners. Even the following morning, Friday the 4th, looks like it will hold some decent size and shape.

Here’s the caveat: this is over a week away, so don’t book the day off work yet. Long-range forecasts can shift, but the potential is definitely there for a great day. It’s a promising but less certain call at this distance. Until then, be patient, keep your board in the car, and wait for that Thursday morning window.

Rusty.

Read more