Stinson Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve had a good hard look at the next 16 days for Stinson Beach, and I’ve got to be straight with you: it’s a pretty bleak picture for paddle surfing. The setup is almost constantly cross-onshore or onshore, and most sessions are rated poor. There’s really nothing that jumps out as a good bet, and the few mornings that get a "marginal" tag still come with significant caveats. Basically, there’s a long dry stretch with no real standout sessions.

The first sniff of anything rideable arrives on Saturday the 1st of August, but it’s a write-off. We’re looking at a 7ft swell from the WNW with a short period of just 8 seconds and a cross-onshore 12 mph wind from the WNW. The water is sitting at 60°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only positive. The wave energy is moderate (663), but the conditions are poor—cross-onshore and choppy. Not worth paddling out.

Sunday the 2nd of August morning offers a marginal hope. The swell drops slightly to 6ft from the WNW, period stretches to 10 seconds, and the wind goes light and onshore from the WSW at just 3 mph. The combined energy is moderate (767). The score is low and the tide conditions are questionable, so it’s a gamble at best. Forget the afternoon—the wind swings back to a 12 mph cross-on from the WNW, making it choppy and poor.

From there, it’s a downhill slide. Monday the 3rd through to Thursday the 6th of August sees the swell dropping from 6ft down to 2ft, with winds staying cross-onshore or onshore. Energy drops from moderate (658) to weak (179). No surf worth chasing.

There’s a long gap of about 8 days where conditions remain poor or marginal. The next small flicker of potential is Saturday the 8th of August morning. Swell is tiny at 2ft from the SSW, but the period is a very long 18 seconds—a true groundswell. The wind is light and onshore from the WSW at 6 mph, and wave energy is low-moderate (355). The score is still low and the tide is questionable. A long-period swell on a beach break like Stinson can be tricky; it might close out or be too straight. That morning might offer a clean but very small window for a log or a longboard.

Sunday the 9th of August morning sees a bump back up to 5ft from the WNW, period 10 seconds, but the wind is a light cross-onshore from the SSW at 6 mph. Wave energy is moderate (648), but the conditions are still described as poor. It’s a similar story for the next few days: 6ft to 5ft swells, always with a cross-onshore or onshore breeze, keeping everything choppy.

The final week stays weak. From Wednesday the 12th of August onwards, the swell drops below 5ft, and by Thursday the 13th of August afternoon, a 2ft, 16-second swell from the SW arrives with a moderate 12 mph cross-on wind from the W. Even the very long period swells on the 14th and 15th of August (up to 18 and 17 seconds) are tiny at 2ft to 3ft, and while the energy ticks up a little (around 461 to 513), the wind is always cross-onshore. Sunday the 16th of August morning gets a marginal tag again with a 3ft, 16-second SW swell and light onshore wind, but again, the tide and conditions are questionable.

Honestly, Stinson is a no-go for proper surfing in this window. The constant cross-onshore wind and general lack of quality mean it’s a blank run for paddle surfing. With the swell often over 5ft but the surf quality poor and the wind strong, this setup actually looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. If you’re desperate for a clean-up, keep an eye on those marginal mornings, but don’t hold your breath. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s stay home and wax your board for another day.

Rusty.

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