Stinson Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's coming up for Stinson Beach. I gotta be straight with you – this stretch doesn't look like a classic surf paradise right now. We've got a long run of small, choppy conditions with winds mostly coming from the west and cross-onshore, messing up the surface. Most of the time, the combined energy sits between 300 and 500 (moderate wave energy), but with the wind and short-period, windswell-like waves, it's not doing much good.

Starting Saturday August 15th, we see a tiny 1.0ft groundswell from the SW at a very long 17-second period (combined energy 439). The morning is the pick of the day, but it's still just "questionable." The wind is light cross-onshore, so it won't be glassy. The afternoon gets worse with a choppy 12 mph wind. This pattern holds through the week – small swells around 2ft to 5ft, and winds that are almost always cross-onshore and building in the afternoons. Sunday morning August 16th has a brief moment of light onshore wind from the SW at 3 mph, which is about as good as it gets, but the swell is still just 3ft.

The first real change comes on Monday August 24th. The morning shows a jump in size to 6ft from the NW (combined energy 978), with a light onshore wind. It's still a short period (8 seconds) though, so it's more of a messy bump than clean lines. That's a big step up in energy, but the quality is still "marginal." The following days, August 25th and 26th, stay in that 6ft to 6ft range, still with cross-onshore winds.

Now, if you're an experienced surfer and you've got patience, Thursday August 27th morning is a standout, but it's a long way out. We're looking at a 8ft swell from the NW with a period of 9 seconds. That's getting into expert territory, too big for beginners. The best part is the wind: a light onshore breeze from the W at 3 mph. It's not offshore, but it's clean enough to make the size workable. The combined energy jumps to 1755 (strong), which is the biggest push we've seen.

Friday August 28th morning is another one to circle on the calendar. The swell jumps up to 10ft from the NW (10-second period), with combined energy at 2682 (very strong). That is serious power. It's only for experts. The wind is a light cross-onshore, which will still put some texture on it, but at that size, it's about the power.

The real highlight, though, is probably Saturday August 29th morning. The swell is still a hefty 7ft from the WNW (9-second period, combined energy 1381), making it a solid challenge. But the wind is a gentle cross-onshore breeze, meaning it won't be as chopped up as the afternoons. Sunday August 30th morning has a smaller 5ft swell from the WNW (9-second period, combined energy 992), but the wind shifts to a gentle cross-shore, which is a different texture. It's still not perfect, but it's the last chance for something more manageable.

The long-period groundswells (over 15 seconds) at the start of this period are better suited for a point break or reef, but Stinson is a fairly exposed beach break. The water temperature right now is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

Crowds at Stinson can be an issue sometimes, but honestly, with this forecast, it's unlikely to be mobbed until that weekend of the 27th-30th. For the vast majority of this 16-day window, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, with those consistent cross-onshore winds and short-period chop. If you want a paddle, focus on the mornings of the 27th, 28th, or 29th. The 27th is the standout for size, but the 29th might have the better overall balance.

Rusty.

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