Rock Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Rock Island over the next couple of weeks.

To be straight up with you, the first week is pretty bleak. We’ve got a long stretch from Monday the 17th of August right through to Sunday the 23rd where there’s nothing worth paddling out for. The swell is tiny, mostly under 2ft, and on top of that, the wind is nuking onshore from the SSW most days, especially from the 21st onwards. It’s just not gonna happen. That’s a solid week of sitting on the beach.

Things finally start to change on Monday the 24th of August. A big groundswell fills in from the SSE, pushing waves up to 5ft in the morning and 6ft in the afternoon. That’s an absolutely massive ramp-up in energy – we’re talking combined swell energy readings of 1216 and 1598! But here’s the kicker: the wind is still howling onshore from the SSW at 15-18 mph. That is going to turn it into a blown-out mess. The period is 16 seconds, which means it’s a proper long-period groundswell, perfect for a reef set-up like Rock Island, but the onshore wind will ruin it. This is really only for experts if they’re desperate.

That sloppy, windy theme continues through the 25th, 26th, 27th, and 28th. We get some solid size – swells up to 8ft on the 28th – but with the constant onshore wind, the quality is poor. It’s going to look more like a kitesurfing zone than a surf break. The energy is still very high, with readings over 1000 on several days, but it's just not clean.

Finally, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. On Saturday the 29th of August, the wind shifts to a cross-offshore from the East at 6 mph. The swell drops back to 3ft from the SSW with a solid 12-second period. The combined energy is 307, so it’s moderate, but more importantly, it’s *clean*. That morning session is the best bet so far. It’s not huge, but it’s surfable.

Then, we have a potential standout on Monday the 31st of August. The models are showing a massive 16ft SSE swell with an 18-second period hitting early in the morning. The wind is light cross-off from the NE at 6 mph. The combined energy reading is a colossal 15811! This is a huge, powerful groundswell. The catch is that the guidance says it’s predicted to be too big for this break, so you’d need to be an absolute expert and know the reef well. It will be intense. The afternoon drops to 13ft with the wind still clean. If you are a big-wave charger, that Monday morning is the call, but it’s a week and a half away, so take it with a pinch of salt.

Looking into September, Tuesday the 1st sees some glassy offshore NE wind at 15 mph with an 12ft SSE swell. That’s a lot of wind but it’s offshore, so it might be groomed, though still very big and only for experts.

Honestly, for the average surfer, the clean window on the morning of Saturday the 29th of August is the most realistic target. The water temp is 81°, which is about average for this time of year.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on those longer-range charts.

Rusty.

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