Ponta Negra Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's break down what's going on at Ponta Negra. Honestly, the next couple of weeks are a total bummer. There is no standout surf on offer across the entire 16-day period. Every single session is flagged as poor surf conditions, so I’ve got to tell it like it is. We’re in for a long, quiet stretch.

The water temp is a very warm 81°, which is about 1° above the long-term average for this time of year. That’s pretty normal, nothing crazy.

We start on Wednesday, August 26th, and it’s already a washout. A 5ft swell from the ESE with a short, weak period of just 7 seconds, and a cross-onshore wind from the SE at 12 mph. That’s gonna be choppy, messy, and unrideable. The combined wave energy is moderate at best (490). This same pattern sticks around for days. Through Thursday and Friday the swell holds at 5ft to 5ft, still short period, still onshore or cross-onshore winds from the ESE at 12 to 16 mph. The energy stays moderate, in the 260 to 450 range, but the quality is just not there.

Over the weekend, Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th, it’s the same story. Swell drops a little to 5ft to 6ft, but the period remains short at 7 seconds, and the wind stays cross-onshore from the SE at 12 to 16 mph. The water will be a mess.

The first week of September is more of the same. From Monday, August 31st, right through to Monday, September 7th, we’ve got a solid run of poor conditions. Swell sizes gradually taper from 6ft down to 2ft, but the wind never lets up. It’s cross-onshore or onshore from the ESE or SE, always at 12 to 16 mph. The wave energy drops from moderate (382) down to weak (124) by the 7th. There’s no window of clean, glassy surf here.

Then we hit the second week, and there’s a tiny flicker of something different around Tuesday, September 8th. The morning shows a 5ft swell from the ESE, but with a period of just 6 seconds—that’s short-period junk. The afternoon, however, is weird. The swell drops to 2ft, but the period jumps to 17 seconds. That’s a very long period groundswell, and the combined energy spikes to 496. But the wind is cross-onshore from the ESE at 12 mph, and the report still says poor surf conditions. A long period swell like that needs a point or reef to really shine, but with that wind direction and the exposed beach setup, it’s not going to shape up.

Wednesday, September 9th, is the most interesting, but still not good. We’ve got a 4ft swell from the ESE with a 16-second period, and the combined energy jumps way up to 872—that’s strong wave energy. The problem? The wind is still cross-onshore from the SE at 12 mph. The forecast still calls it poor. A 16-second groundswell has power and long waits between sets, which can make paddling out easier, but not when it’s this blown out.

Thursday, September 10th, is the last day in the forecast, with a 3ft to 4ft swell from the ESE, a 14-second period, and onshore winds from the E and ESE at 12 mph. Energy is still strong (777 to 682), but the conditions are just as poor.

Look, Ponta Negra is a consistent break and exposed to the swell, but this entire 16-day run is a blank. The wind is relentless from the east or southeast, never giving us a break. With that constant cross-onshore flow and short-period chop for most of it, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Sometimes it just stays poor for a while, and this is one of those times. The long-period pulses in the second week have energy, but without clean wind, they’re wasted. Keep an eye on it, but don’t get your hopes up.

Rusty.

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