Ponta Negra Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then folks, Rusty here, looking at the forecast for Ponta Negra.

To be straight with you, this is a pretty grim outlook over the next 16 days. The whole stretch from July 6th right through to July 21st is a write-off for decent waves. Every single day is flagged as "poor surf conditions," and the scores reflect that. You’re looking at a blank run that’s weeks long. There are no standouts, no hidden gems – just a lot of cross-onshore wind and messy, bumpy surf.

The main issue is the wind. Day in, day out, it’s coming from the SE, ESE, or SSE, blowing at 9 to 16 mph. That’s a constant cross or cross-onshore flow, which just ruins the face of the wave. For a spot that works best with a NE swell direction, we’re getting swells from the SE and ESE – that’s a poor angle. Swell heights bob around from 2ft to 5ft, periods are mostly short (6-8 seconds), so it’s weak, wind-affected junk. The combined energy values (345, 200, 172 etc.) are mostly in the 100-300 range, which tells you the wave energy is weak to moderate – but it doesn’t matter when the wind is so bad.

The water temperature is 81°F which is about average for this time of year, but you’ll hardly feel it through the chop.

There is a brief moment around July 10th when a longer period swell (13 seconds) shows up with combined energy in the 181-312 range, suggesting better shaped waves in theory. But the wind remains stubbornly cross-onshore, so it’ll still be a bumpy mess. For a beach break like Ponta Negra, a longer period groundswell can break too straight unless the sandbanks are perfect, and with these winds it won’t hold up.

Crowds are often present here, but honestly, with no surf to speak of, the line-up will be empty. If you’re a beginner, the smaller days (2ft-3ft) might be safe to bob around, but the waves will be poor quality. If the swell pushes over 5ft – like on July 18th morning with 5ft, or July 20th with 5ft – it’s going to be bigger, but with this wind, it’s more suited to kite surfing than paddle surfing.

There’s simply no reason to wax up. Save the energy for another time. Forecasts can change, but this run looks locked in.

Rusty.

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