Ponta Negra Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s happening for Ponta Negra.

Gotta be honest, the next couple of weeks are a tough pill to swallow. There’s consistent swell running, but the wind is locked in from the SE, blowing straight cross-on, and that’s killing any chance of a clean wave. The water’s warm, sitting at about 80°, which is normal for this time of year, but that’s the only easy part. The first chance to paddle out comes Sunday, July 26th, and it’s a rough start.

Sunday the 26th gives us a small 2 ft swell from the SE, with a period of only 8 seconds, and that cross-on wind from the SE at 12 mph. Combined energy is weak (134), and it's labeled "poor surf conditions." It’s choppy and messy. The afternoon bumps to 4 ft from the ESE, but the period drops to 7 seconds, making it even more disorganised. Not worth the paddle out.

Monday the 27th is more of the same: 3 ft from the SE, short period, same cross-on wind. Energy drops to 104 and 107.

Tuesday the 28th sees the swell push to 4-4 ft from the ESE, but the period is a terrible 6 seconds. Combined energy picks up a little (117), but the chop from that 12 mph wind is brutal.

Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th are rinse and repeat. Swell sits around 4-4 ft, periods still 6 seconds, cross-on wind. The energy gets slightly higher Wednesday morning at 151, but the waves look almost unsurfable.

Friday the 31st shifts a little, with light 6 mph wind from the ESE in the morning, but it’s onshore and there’s a risk of thunderstorms. Swell is 4 ft from the E at 7 seconds. Still “poor surf conditions.” The afternoon gets windier again at 9 mph, still cross-onshore.

Into August now, Saturday the 1st of August sees the swell jump to 6 ft from the ESE, with an 8-second period. Combined energy hits 348, which is moderate, but the wind is still cross-on at 12-16 mph, with rain showers. At 6 ft, it’s getting bigger, but it’s still messy. Not fun in this wind.

Sunday the 2nd of August backs off to 4-5 ft, but the wind stays cross-on. The afternoon has a little more energy (249), but nothing clean.

Monday the 3rd of August is the energy standout—morning hits 691 and afternoon 640—with 6 ft and 5 ft from the ESE at 8 seconds. This is the biggest energy push of the whole period, but that relentless SE wind at 12 mph blowing cross-on just kills it. Still “poor surf conditions.” Frustrating to have so much power and no order.

The rest of the first week of August (4th to 8th) stays in the same rut: 5 ft to 7 ft swells, periods of 8 seconds, moderate to strong combined energy (300-544), but always cross-on wind from the SE or ESE at 12-16 mph. By the 5th and 6th, swell hits 7 ft —that’s too big for beginners and pushing into expert-only territory, even if the wind was glassy. As it is, this looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The last few days, 9th and 10th of August, the biggest pulse comes Sunday the 9th morning with 7 ft from the ESE at 8 seconds and combined energy of 992—that’s strong, right on the edge of very strong. But the story doesn’t change: cross-on wind, messy, poor. Monday the 10th is the same, with 6-7 ft at 9 seconds, energy at 574-640.

I can’t pick a winner here. Not one session in this 16-day window is clean. The waves are there, but the wind ruins every single one. The near term is a bust, and the long range is promising in energy but uncertain in quality. Ponta Negra is exposed, and that SE wind just won’t quit.

Stay patient, mate. It doesn’t usually stay this poor for long, and forecasts can change. But for now, leave the stick at home.

Rusty.

Read more