Paukukalo_Wailuku Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this 16-day stretch over at Paukukalo_Wailuku is a tough one. We’ve got a lot of energy in the water, but it’s all coming in sideways and the wind is just messing it up. The surf is going to be lumpy, choppy, and pretty darn hard to ride. It’s not a no-go, but you’re gonna have to work for every crumb you get.

The water temp is sitting at 80°F, which is pretty much dead average for this time of year, so no worries there.

The first few days, from Wednesday the 5th through the weekend, are looking pretty poor. The swell is small, around 3ft to 5ft, with a short, weak period of 5 to 8 seconds. The wind is mostly cross-onshore from the ENE, which will have the surface all chopped up. The energy is weak to moderate, ranging from 83 up to 234 in the gauges. It's just not doing anything for us.

We see a bit more size push in on Sunday the 9th, with the swell climbing to 6ft, and the energy jumps to 409, but the period is still short and the wind stays cross-onshore. It’s just a bigger, messier version of the same thing. This pattern holds through the middle of the week, with the swell bouncing between 4ft and 5ft. The energy stays moderate, and the wind just won't let up.

Now, the real swell starts to build later in the week and into the weekend. By Friday the 14th, we're looking at 6ft of swell, and the energy is getting into the strong territory at 413. Then Saturday the 15th sees it jump to 7ft, with the energy reading 628 and 735. This is a lot of water moving, but it’s marred by a fresh cross-onshore breeze at 19 mph, making it lumpy and tough. By Sunday the 16th, we’re still seeing 7ft of swell, with strong energy at 743. This is definitely expert territory; it’s well over the 8ft mark for a reason, and the cross-onshore wind is going to make it a battle.

The second week, from the 17th onward, the swell backs down a touch but stays in the 6ft to 6ft range, with moderate to strong energy. The wind is still cross-onshore, so the quality remains poor. It’s a lot of water moving, but it’s all for nothing if the conditions stay this messy.

So, here’s the deal. There are no real standouts in this entire 16-day window at Paukukalo_Wailuku. The break is fairly consistent, but the conditions are not. Everything is cross-onshore and choppy. For a reef break that likes that NNE swell, having it coming from the ENE with that side wind is just a mess. It’s gonna be a grind. If you’re a die-hard, the bigger days on the 15th and 16th will have the most push, but only for the experts. For everyone else, you might be better off doing something else. The setup is looking more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, to be honest.

Keep an eye on it, but don't hold your breath. Forecasts can change, but this one looks like a long, bumpy road.

Rusty.

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