Octagon House Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the surf outlook for Octagon House. This is a tough stretch, and I’m not going to sugarcoat it. Looking at the whole 16-day window, we’ve got a lot of small, weak, and messy conditions to wade through. It’s not going to be a classic run, but there are a couple of tiny windows where it might clean up enough for a paddle.

The water temp is sitting at 86° with the anomaly running about a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a little treat, at least.

We start off with a pretty bleak picture. From the 9th through to the 23rd of August, the surf is just poor. We’re looking at tiny swell, mostly under 3ft, with short, weak periods of 4 to 6 seconds. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, putting a chop on everything. The energy is weak too, with values mostly in the 20s, 30s, and 40s. There’s a lot of nothing to get excited about. If you’re a beginner, it’s not going to be too big, but it’s going to be messy and not much fun. The whole first week and a half is basically a write-off.

Now, here’s the one glimmer of hope. On the morning of Sunday the 16th, we get a break in the gloom. The wind swings around to the northwest at just 3 mph, and it’s glassy. The swell is still small, 2ft from the SSE, but with that clean surface, it’s the best the place will look. It’s a small window, and the swell is weak, but it’s the only time you’ll see real glass. It’ll be tiny, but clean.

Then we go right back into the slop for the rest of that week. More cross-onshore winds, more chop.

The real standout, the only thing that gets my heart pumping, is the morning of Monday the 24th of August. The wind is offshore, light from the WNW, and the conditions are glassy. The swell finally picks up a little, to 4ft from the south, with a bit more energy behind it. The combined energy jumps to 125, which is a huge step up from the weak readings we’ve seen all week. It’s still not big, but it’s the biggest and cleanest swell of the whole period. This is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s still a week and a half out, so we need to keep an eye on it, but it’s the only real chance for a decent wave. The period is still short, but that clean, offshore wind will make the most of what’s there.

Honestly, for most of this stretch, the conditions look more interesting for a kite than a paddle. There’s a lot of wind and chop with no real swell. But that Monday morning the 24th is the one. Keep your fingers crossed.

Rusty.

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