Octagon House Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat and messy for the Octagon House zone. We’ve got a run of tiny, short-period swell and wind that’s mostly onshore or cross-onshore, so the surf is going to be struggling to put together anything rideable for most of this stretch. The combined energy out there is weak, sitting under 50 for nearly the whole period, which tells you there’s just no punch in the water. This is one of those times where you might want to save the petrol and do something else for a while.

Monday the 10th kicks off with a risk of thunderstorms and a light cross-onshore breeze from the south at 10 km/h. The swell is a wobbly 2ft from the southeast at a short 5-second period, with weak energy. It’s poor, with small wind ripples, and honestly there’s nothing to get excited about. The water temperature is sitting at 86°, which is about average for this time of year, and that’s the only thing that feels normal.

Through Tuesday the 11th and into Wednesday the 12th, we’re stuck with that same ankle-biters: 2ft to 3ft from the southeast, periods around 4 to 5 seconds, and cross-onshore winds that keep the surface choppy. Energy climbs slightly by Wednesday afternoon but it’s still weak. Thursday the 13th sees the swell bump up to 3ft from the SSE, but with a 5-second period and a moderate cross-onshore breeze, it’s just bumpy and uninviting.

Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th keep that same 3ft SE/SSE swell, but winds turn more directly onshore from the SSE at 15 to 20 km/h, so it’s not going to be clean. This is all beach break stuff, and with this kind of short-period, low-energy swell, it's going to be closing out and dribbling.

Now, here’s the one bright spot: Sunday morning the 16th. The wind finally swings around to a light offshore from the northwest at 5 km/h, and the water goes glassy. Swell is still small at 2ft from the SSE with a 6-second period, but that clean surface is going to make the most of what little there is. It’s nothing special, but if you’re desperate, the early session could give you a few soft little rollers. The rest of Sunday turns onshore again, so don't sleep in.

After that, we’re back into a long, flat spell. From Monday the 17th through to Thursday the 20th, the swell drops right off to 1ft or even smaller, with periods all over the shop and winds mostly cross-onshore or onshore. It’s a proper dead patch.

We see a tiny bump on Friday the 21st and into the weekend, but it’s still minimal: 1ft from the SSW with a 3 to 4-second period, and winds are onshore or cross-onshore. Don’t get your hopes up.

Then things get a little interesting toward the end of the window. Monday the 24th has a light cross-shore, and then Tuesday the 25th shows another clean window with a light offshore from the NNW at 10 km/h. Swell is around 3ft from the SSE at 5 seconds. Again, it’s not big, but the offshore wind will clean it up, and it’s the only other session worth thinking about. After that, the onshore kicks back in.

So, overall, this is a bleak 16-day outlook. There are no true standouts here. The two clean windows on Sunday the 16th and Tuesday the 25th are the best on offer, but even then, we’re talking about polite, small waves that will be lucky to push 2ft. With such a long run of flatness, this is the kind of spell where you just wait it out. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye on the wind, because a bit more offshores would at least make the tiny stuff rideable.

That’s it from me. Stay patient, keep the wax warm, and check back later.

Rusty.

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