Octagon House Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s be straight with you. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper surf. We’ve got a long stretch of small, junky, onshore slop that’s going to test your patience more than your skill. The good news? There’s a tiny glimmer of something better way out at the end of the forecast, but it’s a promise, not a guarantee.

We’re looking at a serious dry spell here. From now, right through the rest of September, there’s just nothing that’s going to get the heart rate up. We’re talking ankle to waist-high dribble, with a persistent easterly wind messing up any chance of a clean face. The water’s sitting at a very warm 87.1° at Octagon House, which is about 3.6° warmer than usual for this time of year—you won’t need a wetsuit, that’s for sure. But you will need a longboard and low expectations.

The first few days are a write-off. It’s all cross-onshore breezes, choppy crumble, and energy readings buried in the weak zone (around 12 to 73). Periods are short and unimpressive, mostly 3 to 6 seconds. There’s a moment on the morning of Monday the 21st where it goes glassy, but the swell is barely a ripple at 0.4ft with a period of 5 seconds. It’s pretty, but it’s not surfable.

This flat, weak pattern just keeps grinding on. Some days the wind eases, but the swell stays tiny, and when a little bump tries to show up, the wind chops it to bits. The energy readings stay mostly weak, only occasionally flirting with the low end of moderate, like on the afternoon of Sunday the 27th when it hits 121.

Here’s the one thing worth circling on the calendar. The morning of Tuesday the 30th of September. Finally, we get a shift. The wind swings around to the north, giving us a clean, cross-off breeze at Octagon House. The swell direction is still off, but the period bumps up to a more respectable 7 seconds. The size is only 1.3ft, which is pathetic, but the conditions will be clean and glassy. It’s the only time in the whole 16 days that the ocean will look like it belongs to us and not the wind.

That’s it. One morning. For a guy who likes to find a diamond in the rough, this is more like a piece of broken glass. The crowd factor is a non-issue because nobody in their right mind will be out there. It’s a poor outlook, plain and simple. We’ll just have to wait for the ocean to wake up.

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