Octagon House Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's break it down.

Well, folks, I gotta be straight with you. Looking at the next 16 days, it’s a tough stretch. The data shows a whole lot of nothing for a long while. The first recommendation doesn't even pop up until the 5th of September, and even then it's a real struggle. We're looking at a solid 11-day gap from the start of the forecast period with no surf worth talking about.

The water temp is sitting at about 87°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

The only spot that’s even on the radar is Octagon House (Octagon), but it’s a beginner spot that's exposed to the swell, and it's only "fairly consistent." The problem is, the swell’s coming from the SSE, which is more cross-on or onshore for most of the period, and the heights are puny. The wind is mostly a mess, keeping things choppy and messy.

For the first few days, from August 25th right through to the end of the month, you’re looking at tiny swell, 1ft to 2ft from the S or SSW, with short periods of 4 to 5 seconds. The combined wave energy is weak, with values in the teens and twenties. The wind is mostly cross or cross-on, making it a frustrating, bumpy mess. It’s a total write-off.

Into the first week of September, it’s more of the same. Tiny, weak swell and poor conditions. The wind's still onshore or cross-onshore, and the surf is just not happening.

Now, there’s a glimmer of something on the 5th of September, a Saturday morning. We get a bit of a pulse: 3ft from the SE with a period of 5 seconds. The combined energy is 38, which is still weak. The wind is light and onshore, which is not ideal, but it’s the first sign of life. The whole day is a "risk tstorm" scenario, so it’s a gamble.

The 8th of September, a Tuesday, sees a real jump. The swell builds to 4ft from the SSE in the morning, and the period stretches to 7 seconds. The combined energy hits 140 (moderate). By the afternoon, it’s 6ft from the SSE with a period of 7 seconds, and the energy jumps to 334 (still moderate). The catch? The wind is cross-on in the morning, turning onshore in the afternoon. It’s going to be choppy and messy, but for the first time, there’s some real size. This is too big for beginners, but it’s the most interesting window.

The best of the best, if you can call it that, is probably the morning of the 9th of September, a Wednesday. The swell is 6ft from the SSE, period 7 seconds, with a combined energy of 297 (moderate). The wind is cross-on, which is a bit cleaner than straight onshore, but it’s still a cross-on breeze. The afternoon sees it jump to 6ft with energy at 606 (strong), but it’s onshore wind again. This is expert territory only if it gets over 8ft, but at 6ft, it’s a close-out for the average punter.

Overall, it’s a grim outlook. There’s a small window around the 8th and 9th of September that has some size, but the wind is working against us. The rest is a long, flat spell. For a spot like this, a blank run is more normal than not. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d be finding something else to do.

Rusty.

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