Octagon House Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this is a tough one. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing much to get excited about across the whole 16-day window. The first wave of any note, if you can call it that, doesn’t show up until Monday morning, July 13th, and even then, it’s a bit of a struggle.

Overall Pattern

We’re looking at a prolonged period of small, weak swell and persistent onshore or cross-onshore winds. The wave energy is pitifully low, barely registering numbers in the teens and twenties, peaking at a measly 77 (combined energy) on Friday, July 17th. That’s weak, no two ways about it. The wind is a constant problem, mostly from the S and SSE, keeping things choppy and messy.

Day-by-Day Breakdown

Monday, July 13th: The first option is Octagon House. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, exposed to the SE, and it’s fairly consistent. But honestly, the surf is poor. We’re looking at a tiny 2 ft SSE swell with a short period of 5 seconds. The water is a warm 86°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. The morning has a cross-shore wind at 9 mph, turning fully onshore in the afternoon. The energy is insignificant (33 in the morning, 65 in the afternoon). This is not a surf you paddle out for unless you’re desperate for a float.

Tuesday, July 14th – Saturday, July 19th: The story doesn’t change. Swell heights hover between 1 ft and 3 ft, all from the SSE or SE, with periods stuck at 5 or 6 seconds. The wind is consistently onshore or cross-onshore, ranging from 6 to 16 mph. Every single day is marked as “poor surf conditions.” The wave energy creeps up to a high of 77 on the Friday morning, but it’s still a messy, weak, short-period windswell. There’s no standout.

Sunday, July 20th – Monday, July 28th: The second week is even more depressing. Swell drops to 1 ft to 2 ft, and the energy is pitiful, bottoming out at 8 on Thursday, July 23rd. The wind is a constant cross-onshore, rarely letting up. There is one tiny moment of "clean" conditions on the morning of Thursday, July 23rd with a light cross-offshore wind from the WSW at 9 mph, but the swell is only 1 ft from the S with a period of 4 seconds. You’d be lucky to get a wave you can stand up on.

The Best on Offer

There is no true standout. If I had to pick the least terrible window, it would be the morning of Friday, July 17th at Octagon House. The swell is 3 ft from the SSE, which is the biggest we see, and the energy is at its highest (77). It’s still a poor, short-period (6 seconds) windswell, and the wind is a cross-onshore at 12 mph, making it choppy. It’s not good, it’s just the best of a bad lot.

For a beginner, this whole period is a write-off. The swell never gets above 3 ft, so it’s not too big, but the quality is so consistently poor that it’s not worth the paddle. The short periods (4-6 seconds) mean the waves are weak and mushy, with no real push.

Final Word

This is a classic flat spell for the area. A blank run of this length is fairly normal when the wind doesn’t cooperate. Forecasts can change, but right now, you’re better off doing something else. The setup here is more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, given the persistent onshore wind and small, choppy waves.

Rusty.

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