Octagon House Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, the outlook for Octagon House is a tough one. We’re looking at a long, dry spell with nothing worth paddling out for. The first real chance of a wave doesn’t show up until a week from now, and even then it’s a struggle. From Thursday the 16th right through to the end of the month, the swell is tiny, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the energy is barely there. The water is sitting at a warm 86°, which is about average for this time of year, so at least you won't be cold while you're sitting there waiting for something that never comes.

Let’s break it down. The first few days, from Thursday the 16th through to Sunday the 20th, we’ve got nothing but tiny, weak swell – around 1ft to 3ft from the SSE or SE, with periods so short (5-6 seconds) it’s basically just wind chop. The wind is a mess, mostly cross-on from the south, so it’s choppy and messy. The combined energy is laughable, barely cracking 30 or 40 (33-55). Not a single wave worth paddling for.

Monday the 20th morning offers a brief moment of glassy conditions with a light westerly, but the swell is just 1ft and the energy is down to 11. It’s a flat spell, plain and simple. The next few days, Tuesday the 21st through to Thursday the 23rd, the swell drops even further, to 0.3ft or 1ft. The wind does go offshore from the WNW on the 22nd and 23rd mornings, which is clean, but you’re looking at a combined energy of just 4 or 5. You’d be surfing ankle biters.

From Friday the 24th to the end of the month, we see a slight bump in swell to 1ft to 2ft, with a bit more period (4-6 seconds), and the wind is a mix of offshore and cross-onshore. The energy picks up a little, reaching 32 on the 29th of July, but it’s still tiny and weak. The wind on the 27th and 28th gets up to 15 mph from the SSW, creating a decent cross-chop, but the swell is too small to do anything with. This stretch is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, if you ask me.

Honestly, there’s no standout session here. The best you could hope for is a clean, glassy morning on the 20th or 22nd, but the swell is practically non-existent. It’s a blank run, and for this area, that’s not unusual. Forecasts can change, but right now, leave the board at home.

Rusty.

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