Octagon House Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get real about the next 16 days down at Octagon House. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, fairly consistent, exposed to the southeast, and it’s best when the swell comes from the southeast. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so nothing to get excited about there.

Honestly, right from the get-go, it’s a rough start. The first few days – from Sunday the 26th of July right through to the end of the month – are pretty grim. We’re looking at tiny, weak swell, mostly under 2ft, with a short period of just 4 to 5 seconds. The wind is a mess of cross and cross-onshore breezes, chewing up the surface. The combined swell energy is barely registering, with values like 18 to 28 (weak energy). It’s just poor surf conditions, day after day. Not worth paddling out for.

As we roll into the first week of August, things start to hint at a change, but it’s still a struggle. On Saturday the 1st of August, the morning looks a bit cleaner with a light cross-offshore wind from the WSW and a clean surface. The swell is still small, 2ft from the SW, with a period of 5 seconds, and the energy is still low (32). It’s a glimmer of hope but not a standout.

Sunday the 2nd of August morning is the best you’ll see in this whole outlook. The wind is light and cross-offshore again, keeping the surface clean. The swell picks up just a touch to 3ft from the SW, with a period of 5 seconds, and the combined energy hits 72 (still weak, but the best of the bunch). It’s the only time the conditions look surfable for a beginner. The afternoon will blow out again with a fresh cross-onshore wind, so get your session in early.

From Monday the 3rd of August onward, it’s back to the same old story. Small, weak swell, poor wind, and choppy water. The energy stays in the low teens to fifties, and the swell direction never really locks into that optimum SE zone. The combined energy even drops to 14 (weak) on the 7th and 8th of August. There’s a run of "unknown" wind states from the 4th to the 8th, which is a bit of a red flag.

So, the standout? It’s Sunday the 2nd of August, morning. That’s your window. It’s not a classic, but it’s the only time the conditions align for a clean, beginner-friendly paddle. The crowd factor is listed as "sometimes" at Octagon, so you might have a few others with the same idea, but it’s not likely to be packed.

For everything else, it’s a waiting game. The forecast shows a long gap of poor-to-marginal surf from the start all the way through, with only that one morning offering a real shot. The combined swell energy throughout the 16 days never reaches a three-digit number, so there’s no real power in the water. It’s a tough stretch, but forecasts can change.

Rusty.

Read more