Octagon House Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a seat. Let’s have a good hard look at what’s cookin’ over the next couple weeks at Octagon House. Straight up, mate, the short story is this: we are in for a lean run. A real drought. The 16-day window kicks off with some energy in the water, but it’s small, messy, and the wind just won’t play nice. We’re talking a solid stretch of pretty average conditions before things finally show a bit of promise right at the tail end.

Right now, from Wednesday the 2nd, the swell is tiny – we’re looking at 2ft from the SSW with a short, weak period of 5 seconds. The combined energy is a measly 21 – that's weak stuff. Plus the wind is a cross-onshore 16 mph, making it choppy. Add a risk of thunderstorm to the mix. Not what you paddle out for. The water temp is 87°, which is about 3° warmer than usual for this time of year – a touch warmer than normal, if you’re into that bathwater feel.

The pattern just doesn't change much. Through Thursday and into the first full week, the swell hangs around the 1ft to 2ft mark, period stays in the 4 to 6 second range, and the energy barely gets into double digits most days. The winds are mostly onshore or cross-onshore and light to moderate. On Friday the 4th morning, we get a glassy moment with 1ft of swell, but with only 8 energy units, it’s just not enough to push anything rideable. By Saturday the 12th, the swell bumps up a touch to 3ft, but it’s still short-period and the wind is a moderate onshore 12 mph. It’s not surfable, just messy.

This flat, poor quality run goes on and on. The guidance rates Octagon House as a fairly consistent break, which can handle an exposed SE swell, but when the swell is consistently this tiny and the wind is on it, even a consistent spot goes quiet. It’s frustrating, but for this area, a blank run like this isn’t abnormal – sometimes the ocean just takes a holiday.

Now, late in the window, things get interesting for the patient surfer. On Tuesday the 15th, we get a 2ft SE swell, but the period stretches to 6 seconds. Not a game changer, but better. Combined energy edges up to 27-28. Still not enough.

But then we hit Wednesday the 16th. The morning is where the first real standout appears. Swell drops to 1ft from the ESE, but the period holds at 6 seconds and the wind goes offshore from the NW at 9 mph. That’s clean. Really clean. The combined energy is still just 16 (weak, I know), so the waves will be small, but the quality from that offshore wind will make them peel. It’s a very small, very clean option for the longboard or a foily. The riser is the morning window.

Then, on Thursday the 17th, we get our biggest bump in swell. The size jumps to 4ft from the ESE with a 5-second period. Combined energy finally reaches 70 – that’s moderate. The wind is a light cross-shore from the SW at 6 mph. The period is still short so don't expect any power or long walls, but for the first time in over two weeks, there is actually some size. It won’t be perfect, but it’s the best size we get.

So, if I’m calling it: The best on offer is Thursday the 17th morning for the most size, but that wind and short period mean it will be a bit lumpy. For clean lines on a small day, give me Wednesday the 16th morning – that offshore wind is too good to pass up. Both are better than what we’ve seen, but neither is going to be pumping. Keep your expectations low, and maybe you’ll have a laugh.

Rusty.

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