Octagon House Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s not sugarcoat it: the next couple weeks are looking pretty flat and messy for the Octagon House zone. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak surf and mostly onshore or cross-shore winds. It’s not a total write-off, but you’re gonna have to pick your moments, and even then, we’re talking tiny, soft waves. The water’s a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, sitting at 87°, which is a bit of a bonus if you’re just going for a dip.

The first few days are grim. Through Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th, we’re looking at nothing but ankle-biters, 1ft of south swell with a short, weak 4-second period. The energy is basically non-existent, with readings in the single digits. There’s a chance of a thunderstorm around, but the wind is mostly glassy in the mornings, which would be nice if there were any waves to ride. It’s just not happening.

Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th don’t get much better. Swell stays tiny, around 0.3ft to 2ft, still from the south with a short period. The energy starts to creep up a little on Friday, hitting double digits, but it’s still weak. Winds are light and cross-shore, which adds a bit of texture. Honestly, you’re better off doing something else.

The first weekend, the 12th and 13th, we finally see a pulse of swell push through 3ft, but it’s still short-period south swell and the onshore breeze is going to make it lumpy and hard to ride. The energy gets into the 20s-40s range, so there’s a bit more push, but the quality just isn’t there.

From the 14th through the 18th, we’re stuck in a rut: 2ft to 3ft of south to southeast swell, with periods stretching to 5-6 seconds. The energy builds from the 30s up to the 60s and 70s, so there’s more water moving, but the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, which ruins any chance of clean surf. It’s just a lot of lumpy, bumpy nothing.

Now, there is one point that gets interesting. Saturday the 19th, the swell bumps up a notch to 4ft, and the combined energy finally cracks 100. That’s a bit more juice. It’s still a short-period SE swell and the wind is cross-onshore in the morning. There’s a chance of a few workable peaks, but it’s not going to be epic. It might be the closest we get to a surfable day for the first two weeks, but I’m not getting too excited.

After that, it fades back again. From the 20th to the 23rd, we’re back to 2ft-3ft of short-period SE swell with light to moderate cross-on winds. The one glimmer of hope is Tuesday the 22nd morning—the wind goes light cross-offshore and the waves look clean. That could be your best shot at getting a few grovelly ones on the longboard. The swell will be small, but it could be clean.

So, the bottom line is this: there’s no big swell, no real standouts. It’s a long stretch of disappointing surf. If you’re desperate, that early morning on the 22nd might be your best bet for a clean if small wave. Otherwise, keep the board in the car and wait for this pattern to break.

Rusty, out.

Read more