Playa Novillero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into what’s on the menu for Playa Novillero over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a few windows for the early crew, but the afternoons are going to be a write-off nearly every day thanks to a consistent onshore breeze kicking in. The water is a balmy 90°, which is a solid 5° warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a proper tropical bath, so you can leave the wetsuit at home.

Friday morning (7th August) is your first real window. The swell is a tiny 2 ft from the SW, but with an incredibly long 18-second period, that’s pure groundswell energy. The combined energy is a moderate 235. With the wind glassy from the east at 3 mph, it’s going to be as clean as a whistle. This is a classic small-wave point-break vibe – super fun on a log or a fish, but those long periods mean the waves will be fat and slow, so don't expect a barrel.

Saturday morning (8th) is a bit of a gamble. The swell bumps up to 2 ft, but the wind is a light cross-shore from the SSE at 6 mph, and there’s a risk of thunderstorms. The combined energy is up to 317, so there’s a bit more push, but the conditions will be messy. Not a standout.

Sunday morning (9th) is looking good again. Glassy conditions, absolutely no wind, with a 2 ft SW swell at a 14-second period. The energy is 247. It’s going to be clean and lined up, but again, small. A perfect morning for a longboard cruise.

The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, is Saturday morning, 15th August. This is the pick of the whole forecast. The swell is a clean 3 ft from the WSW at a beefy 16-second period, delivering a combined energy of 535 – that’s a solid, moderate punch. The wind is light from the east at 3 mph, giving us a clean, cross-off breeze. This is the best combination of size, power, and wind direction we’ll see. The water will be in the same warm range, and the break will be much more lined up. For intermediate surfers, this is as good as it gets in the window. Keep an eye on crowds, as Novillero can be a popular spot, and with conditions this good, it’ll be busy.

The rest of the second week is a bit of a mixed bag of small, clean mornings and blown-out afternoons. The mornings on the 16th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st and 22nd all offer some clean, glassy or glassy-adjacent conditions with waves in the 2 ft to 3 ft range. The energy is moderate, hovering around 200-280. They’re rideable, but nothing to write home about compared to that Saturday morning session.

Summing it up: if you’re only going to paddle out once, make it Saturday morning, 15th August. The rest of the time, set your alarm for dawn and be off the water by lunchtime.

Rusty.

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