El Anclote Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what we’ve got coming up.

The next 16 days are a bit of a slow burn, honestly. We’re looking at a long stretch of small surf with a few scattered windows where things clean up. There’s a good gap at the start before we see anything worth getting excited about, but patience will pay off.

The first real opportunity to get wet hits Saturday morning, July 4th. It’s not epic, but we start with small 2 ft swell from the southwest at El Anclote. The water is sitting at a very warm 89°F, which is a full 5°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s muggy, tropical bathwater. The wind is glassy from the northeast at 3 mph, so the surface will be clean for the early session. The combined energy is moderate at 137. A nice mellow start for beginners on the reef.

Sunday, July 5th, has a similar story. Another tiny 1 ft SSW swell in the morning, but with zero wind. It’s completely flat-calm and glassy. It’s surfable, but you’ll be working for every ripple.

Monday, July 6th, is the pick of the first week. The morning session looks best – 2 ft from the SSW, combined energy climbing to a solid moderate 267, and glassy conditions again with a light 3 mph northeast breeze. You get clean, small waves with a little more push than the weekend.

After that, things get messy. Tuesday, July 7th through to Friday, July 10th, onshore winds and cross-shore chop spoil the fun. The swell stays tiny and the quality drops off. The Thursday and Friday afternoons do offer some cleaner cross-off or offshore winds, but the energy is fading into the weak range. Not worth paddling out for.

Saturday, July 11th and Sunday, July 12th continue the small-theme. The swell is dropping to 1 ft, but the afternoons bring a moderate offshore wind from the northwest (16 mph), so the surface will be clean and bumpy with texture. The energy is weak now (99), but it’s a surfable window for those who just need to get wet.

Monday, July 13th through the middle of Thursday, July 16th is the real gap. The swell bottoms out around 0.7 ft to 1 ft, winds turn onshore or cross-shore, and we get a string of "poor surf conditions" with a risk of thunderstorms. Nothing to report here – a blank run.

The next hint of life arrives Friday, July 17th. Mornings bring 1 ft from the SSW, and the afternoon picks up slightly to 2 ft. Light cross-off winds (6 mph) from the west-northwest keep things clean. Still small, but the combined energy bumps back to a moderate 175. It’s a solid session for a log or a funboard.

Now, the standout window. Saturday, July 18th and Sunday, July 19th are where we finally get some size. On Saturday, the swell jumps to 4 ft to 4 ft from the southwest, with combined energy hitting strong to very strong (476 to 574). The wind is clean and cross-off from the northwest in the afternoon. This is not for beginners – it’s getting into that intermediate territory, and with chest-high waves, it’ll be fun. The period is short (12-13 seconds), so it’s a windswell mix.

Sunday, July 19th holds at 4 ft from the southwest. The morning has glassy conditions again with a light 3 mph northeast breeze, making for clean, smooth faces. The energy is still strong (439-441). The wind does turn cross-shore in the afternoon, but the morning is your best bet. Crowds are listed as "sometimes," so expect a few locals out at El Anclote (reef break) – it’s a consistent spot.

To wrap it up: the first real standout is Monday morning, July 6th – small but clean. The true highlight is the morning of Sunday, July 19th, for the biggest, cleanest swell of the period. Everything else is small and average. Don’t hold your breath for the middle week.

Rusty.

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