Condos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

Honestly, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak. There’s a real lack of any proper swell on the horizon for us. The models are showing a long stretch of small, weak, short-period junk that’s going to have a hard time breaking with any kind of shape. We’re looking at a serious dry spell here. It’s going to be a waiting game, for sure.

Let's start with the here and now. This morning, Sunday the 2nd, there’s a tiny 3ft bump from the SSE, but the period is a dismal 5 seconds. It’s just not doing anything. The energy reading is down there at 54, so it’s weak. The water temp is sitting at 84°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. It’s glassy with light winds from the SSW, so the surface will be clean, but there’s just nothing to ride. A storm is also a risk this morning, so don’t get too comfortable. It’s surfable in the loosest sense of the word, but you’d be scratching for anything. Don’t get your hopes up.

The wind swings around for the afternoon, picking up out of the SSE at 15 mph, and that’ll chop things up. Monday and Tuesday don’t offer any improvement. We’re stuck with these weak 2ft to 3ft waves, and persistent cross-on breezes are just going to make things messy and lumpy. The swell energy stays in the weak range (24-48), which tells you all you need to know. It’s a holding pattern of close-outs and bump.

Wednesday the 5th sees a slight nudge up to 3ft but with a period of only 6 seconds. The energy is still weak. This is not the kind of swell you paddle out for. It’s just a confused, wind-blown sea.

It’s more of the same through the rest of the first week and into the second. Around Thursday the 13th, we do see the energy numbers climb into the 100s (112), which puts us in the moderate range, and the swell puffs up to 4ft. But before you get excited, the period is still stuck at 6 seconds and the wind is cross-on. This isn't a clean swell; it’s just a messier, more powerful version of the same chop. It's still going to be poor.

The 16-day window basically runs out with the same theme: small, weak, and onshore. I see nothing on the horizon that would make me want to change my plans. The long-range outlook is for more of the same low-energy dribble.

Here at Condos (Big Island), the setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. If you have a kite, there might be some fun to be had in the stronger afternoon breezes, but for a surfboard, it's going to be a frustrating stretch.

Look, it’s a blank run, which is normal for this area at this time. We just have to sit it out. Forecasts can and do change, so we keep an eye on it, but don't hold your breath.

Stay stoked,

Rusty.

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