Matanzas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a 16-day window for Matanzas, and honestly, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The first few days are looking pretty average, but there’s a glimmer of hope if you’re patient.

The overall pattern is dominated by a persistent cross to cross-onshore wind, which is going to keep things choppy and messy for most of the period. The swell energy is moderate, with values mostly in the 800-1000 (combined energy) range early on, but it’s not enough to overcome the wind. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing to write home about.

Friday, September 4th kicks off with a 4 ft WSW swell, but with a 15 mph cross breeze from the south, it’s going to be a lumpy, frustrating session. The energy is there (845), but the quality isn’t. Not worth paddling out.

Saturday, September 5th drops off to 3 ft, but the real story is the 18-second period on that SW swell. That’s a long period groundswell, which means it could have some real shape to it, but unfortunately the wind is still cross. The morning has a small window of lighter breeze (9 mph), but it’s still cross. The energy is higher (1037-1146), but the conditions are marginal. Not a standout.

Sunday, September 6th is the one to circle. The morning sees a light NW breeze at just 3 mph, switching to a light onshore 6 mph offshore in the afternoon. The swell is a solid 5 ft from the SW, with a 15-second period, giving it real grunt (1053 combined energy). The wind is light and cross-onshore, but the biggest draw is the early morning glass-off potential. This is the best window of the next week. The break is a reef, so that long period will wrap in nicely, and the light wind means clean walls. It’s the pick of the first week.

Monday, September 7th through to Wednesday, September 9th is a write-off. The wind picks up again, stays cross-onshore, and the swell drops. The combined energy dips below 500, and the conditions are “poor”. Don’t bother.

Thursday, September 10th is interesting. The morning is glassy, with zero wind, and a 3 ft WSW swell. The energy is low (271), but for a log or a funboard, that glassy morning could be a real treat. The forecast says “expect good surf conditions,” and that’s rare in this outlook. It’s not a big wave day, but it’s clean.

Friday, September 11th brings a bump in swell to 6 ft, but it’s a short period (12 seconds) and the wind is back to 15 mph cross-shore. The energy is 815, but it’s going to be a messy, blown-out scene. Kite surfers might enjoy it, but for paddle surfing, it’s a pass.

The second week, from Saturday, September 12th onward, is a slow decline. The swells are smaller, the period drops, and the wind is consistently cross-onshore. Saturday the 12th has 6 ft, but it’s short period (10 seconds) and the wind is on it. The energy is just 591. Sunday the 13th is similar. Monday the 14th sees a drop to 2 ft in the morning, then a slight pick-up in the afternoon with a 4 ft WSW swell and a 14-second period. The wind is lighter cross-shore, so it’s passable, but not a standout.

Tuesday, September 15th has a tiny window of light wind in the morning, but the swell is only 4 ft and the period is average. The rest of the week is all poor conditions with gusty cross-shore winds.

The best on offer is Sunday, September 6th, morning. That 5 ft SW swell with a 15-second period and light NW wind (3 mph) is the cleanest, most powerful wave of the entire forecast. It’s a reef break, so it’ll handle that long period well. After that, Thursday, September 10th morning is a consolation prize for the glassy conditions, but the swell is tiny.

Rusty.

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