Matanzas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Alright, lookin’ at the next 16 days for Matanzas, it’s a tough stretch. The swell is there, but the wind is mostly a mess. We’ve got a lot of cross-shore and cross-onshore breeze, and that’s gonna make things choppy and lumpy. We’re not looking at a classic run of clean, glassy waves, that’s for sure.

The water temp is sitting at 57°F which is about 2°F warmer than normal for this time of year, so it’s pleasant enough. The combined wave energy in the early days is up there, around 885 (moderate) on Thursday morning, but that’s paired with a 16 mph cross-wind. The swell is coming from the WSW at 4ft with a 14-second period, which is a nice groundswell, but the wind just ruins the shape. It’s a cross-chop mess. Thursday afternoon is even worse, with a fresh breeze and lumpy conditions.

Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th are much the same story. The swell period jumps to 18 seconds on Saturday morning, which is a very long period groundswell. That’s the kind of energy that would be magic at a point break, but at a reef break like Matanzas, it might just power through and make things a bit straight. The wind is still cross-shore, so the waves will be there, but don’t expect perfection.

Sunday the 6th is a bit of a glimmer. We get a light NW wind in the morning at only 3 mph, almost glassy. The swell is 5ft from the SW with a 15-second period, and the combined energy is 960 (moderate). The wind is cross-onshore though, so there will be a slight ripple. This is the best the first week has to offer. It’s a surfable, clean-ish wave, but we’re dealing with a marginal forecast.

The rest of the first week and into the second week is a write-off. The wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, the swell drops or gets messy. There’s a pulse on the 11th of September with 6ft to 8ft swell from the WSW, but the wind is screaming at 19 mph, so it’s just a lumpy, blown-out mess. This is expert-only stuff, and even then, it’s not enjoyable.

From the 14th of September onwards, the wave energy drops off significantly. The combined energy readings are all below 500 (weak), and the swell is small and short-period. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf conditions. The 18th of September sees a slight uptick in size to 6ft, but it’s a short-period, onshore windswell of 8 seconds. That’s just messy, choppy water.

Honestly, the standout is a relative one. If you’re desperate, Sunday morning the 6th of September is your best bet. The wind is light, the swell has some decent energy, and you might get a few clean ones. It’s not a classic, but it’s the only window that isn’t a total write-off. The rest of the time, you’re fighting the wind. For a reef setup like Matanzas, the persistent cross-chop is a real killer.

Stay patient, and don’t force it. The forecast can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty

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