Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks. We’re talking about Papa Tangaroa, a solid reef break that’s exposed to the south and handles the bigger stuff. Water temp is sitting at 70°, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing wild there.

The forecast starts with a bit of a flat note, but we’ve got waves from Thursday the 16th. It’s a bit of a mixed bag to kick things off. Thursday morning sees a 6ft swell from the WSW, with a moderate 11-second period. The wind is a cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but the wave energy is strong (2008). The afternoon picks up a cleaner 12-second period, still a solid 6ft, but the wind picks up to a fresh breeze, making it a bit of a battle. Not the best start, but it’s surfable.

Friday the 17th is a write-off. The wind swings cross-on and gets fresh, with a lumpy 7ft swell that’s got a short, weak 8-second period. The energy drops off (1199) and it’s just a mess. Don’t bother.

Now, Saturday the 18th morning is a real standout. The wind goes glassy, dead calm, with a clean 6ft swell from the SW at 9 seconds. The energy is moderate (639), but with that glassy surface, it’s going to be a joy. The afternoon stays clean with a light cross-off breeze and a 5ft, 10-second swell. This is your best early window – get on it.

Sunday the 19th is a no-go. Strong onshore wind from the south and SSE makes it a choppy, blown-out mess, despite the swell having a decent 12-second period in the afternoon. Not worth it.

Monday the 20th is a nice surprise. Morning has a light cross-off breeze and a 4ft, 11-second swell that’s clean. The afternoon is even better: a gentle offshore breeze from the north with a very long 16-second groundswell pushing 3ft. The energy is moderate (656) but the shape will be incredible on that reef. It’s a sneaky good session.

Tuesday the 21st is a tricky one. The swell jumps up with a very long 24-second period in the morning, coming in at 3ft, but the wind is a fresh cross-off. The energy is strong (1308), but that period is so long it might be a bit walled-up on the reef. The afternoon gets a raw 5ft, 22-second swell with a fresh cross-off, and the energy is very strong (2852). It’s a big, powerful, but tricky swell. For the experienced only.

Wednesday the 22nd gets big and ugly. The swell hits 7ft in the morning and 10ft in the afternoon, both from the SW with long periods, but the wind is cross-on and choppy. The energy is huge (4617 and 5494). This is expert territory, and the wind is going to make it a battle. Not our day.

Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th are a washout for different reasons. Thursday has a big 8ft SW swell but the wind is light and cross-shore, then cross-off. The energy is monstrous (4150 and 4487), but conditions are marginal. Friday the 24th is just onshore and poor, with a big 7ft swell. Skip it.

Saturday the 25th is more of the same – a solid 8ft swell but cross-on wind and choppy. Not for paddling.

Sunday the 26th afternoon is another one to watch. A 7ft SW swell with a 14-second period, and the wind goes light cross-off from the NE. The energy is moderate (1869), but the conditions are clean and excellent for experienced surfers. This is a solid option.

The rest of the run into the 31st of July is a bit of a fade. Monday the 27th is windy and messy, Tuesday the 28th is tiny and chopped out. Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th have big, chunky swell (12ft and 10ft) but onshore or cross-shore winds. The afternoon of the 30th is clean with a 8ft SSW swell, but it’s for experts only. Friday the 31st has a tiny 2ft, long-period groundswell with a clean offshore breeze – a small, fun session for the logs.

The real standout is Saturday the 18th morning with that glassy, 6ft surf. The other best bet is Monday the 20th afternoon with the long-period, offshore gem. Everything else is either blown out, too big, or too small.

Rusty.

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