Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, checking the charts for the next couple of weeks. It’s one reef spot doing all the talking, and it’s got a few moments of real magic.

The first few days, starting Thursday the 10th, are a bit of a bust. You’ve got a solid 8-foot swell, but the wind is junk – cross-shore and onshore, making everything choppy and ugly. The wave energy is huge (2933 to 3119), but it’s not doing you any favors. Friday the 11th is a little better, but still onshore. Saturday the 12th is a little lighter on the wind, but you’re still dealing with ripples.

Sunday the 13th is a hard pass. A 6-foot swell with a moderate cross-onshore wind is just a bumpy, choppy mess.

The spark comes on Tuesday the 15th. A cross-offshore breeze finally shows up, cleaning up that 6-foot SW swell. The wave energy is still pumping (1198), and the wind is the first real clean window we’ve seen. It’s a nice, solid day.

But the one you circle is Wednesday the 16th of September. This is the real deal. We’re looking at a moderate offshore wind, blowing from the north, grooming a 4 to 4-foot SW swell with a 20-second period. That’s proper groundswell. The combined energy is still strong (1343 and 1302), and that offshore wind is going to make those waves glassy, clean, and lined up. On a reef, a long-period swell like this is a thing of beauty. It’s the best day of the whole outlook. The swell is smaller, but the quality is through the roof.

Thursday the 17th is a solid backup. More offshore wind, a 5-foot SW swell, and a strong 18-second period. The wind is a bit stronger (25 to 30 mph), but it’s still offshore, so it’s clean. This is another banger.

After that, the winds stay clean for a few days, but the swell drops to 4 to 4 feet. The energy drops off (707 to 724), so it’s small, clean, and fun, but not the big day.

The last week of the outlook gets ugly again. The wind turns cross-on or onshore, and the swell gets bigger and rougher. The 22nd and 23rd of September are a washout – fresh cross-onshore winds, lumpy, and messy. The swell is 8-foot, but it’s a wind-blown disaster. That’s kite-surfing stuff.

So, the verdict: Wednesday the 16th of September is your absolute winner. Plan for it. Tuesday the 15th is a great warm-up, and Thursday the 17th is a close second. The rest is either too windy, too messy, or just average.

Rusty.

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