Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your wettie and listen up, this is Rusty.

Right now, the surf is a bit of a struggle. We’ve got some size but the wind is just wrecking it. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor conditions until we get a real standout at the very end of this 16-day run.

Let’s start with what’s on offer. For Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th of August, there’s some swell in the water at Papa Tangaroa, a heavy reef break. Swell is coming from the SW, around 5ft to 6ft, with a period of 13 to 14 seconds. It’s a long-period groundswell, so it’ll have plenty of energy and good shape on this reef, but the sets will be a bit more spaced out. The problem is the wind. On Monday we’ve got a fresh cross-offshore breeze from the NW at 22 mph, which will keep it clean, but the wave comment isn't great. Then Tuesday the wind swings onshore and it all goes to crap. The water temp is running unseasonably warm—we’re looking at an anomaly of 1° to 2° more than usual for this time of year, so you can leave the 5/4 wetsuit at home.

From Tuesday the 18th afternoon right through to Sunday the 30th of August, it’s a write-off. There’s a massive gap where the wind is either onshore, cross-onshore, or just too strong. The swell is there, even getting up to 10ft to 13ft with moderate to strong combined wave energy (up to 7317 on Wednesday the 25th), but it’s all wind-affected and lumpy. The wave state is described as poor and messy. Honestly, for a beach-and-reef setup like this, it looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing when the wind is pumping from the SSE.

Now, the true standout. You want to circle Monday the 31st of August and Tuesday the 1st of September. This is the one.

On Monday the 31st, Papa Tangaroa is going to be pumping. We’re talking a solid 15ft swell from the SW, with a period of 13 to 14 seconds. That’s a very high-energy groundswell (combined energy of 6584 to 6964). But the big deal is the wind: it’s a light offshore breeze from the N to NNE, only 6 mph, keeping it glassy and clean. This is “exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers.” This is not a beginner wave—15ft over a reef is only for the experienced crew. The swell direction (SW) lines up perfectly with the optimum direction for the spot. With the long period, it’s going to peel perfectly down the reef. Be aware, crowds are rare here but if the forecast holds, you might see a few others who read the charts.

Then Tuesday the 1st of September holds a similar pulse: 10ft from the SW with a very long 16-second period, and a fresh offshore wind from the NNW at 19 mph. Still clean, still powerful, but that big Monday is the one to chase. Keep in mind this is over a week away, so the exact size and timing could shift, but the ingredients are all there for a proper session.

Stay stoked, watch the horizon, and don’t sleep on that last week of August.

Rusty

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