Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a mixed bag coming up for Papa Tangaroa over the next couple of weeks, so let’s break it down.

First up, the water temp is sittin’ around 69°, right about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. We start with small, weak energy on Tuesday the 15th. It’s mellow with a 6ft swell from the SW and light east winds making it a little choppy. Not terrible, but nothing to get too excited about. The real standout in this whole window is Tuesday afternoon. The wind drops off completely, going glassy—a major positive. We’ve got a clean 6ft SSW swell wrapping in. The combined energy is still high (955), but the conditions are perfect. This is the best on offer early on.

Wednesday the 16th morning is small and weak with a 3ft swell from the SW and a really long 21-second period. That kind of period is prone to lining up and breaking straight on the reef, so it might be a bit weird here. The afternoon cleans up nicely with a light offshore from the NW and a 4ft SW swell. The energy jumps way up (1366) and the conditions are excellent for experienced surfers.

Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th have some size but get blown out by strong NW and WNW winds. The swell’s in the 4ft to 4ft range, and the energy is still decent, but the wind makes it messy. Not worth rushing out for.

Then we hit a rough patch. Saturday the 19th is a write-off with 25-28 mph winds and rain. Sunday the 20th sees a jump in size—8ft to 10ft—but it’s from the west with short, weak period and cross/offshore winds. The energy is high (1543-1588), but for a reef break, the quality isn’t there. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than paddle surfing.

Monday the 22nd of September brings a huge, powerful swell—13ft to 15ft from the west. The combined energy is off the charts (6074). But the wind is fresh and cross-shore, creating a lumpy cross-chop. This is serious, heavy water. Only for experts, and even then, the conditions are marginal. Definitely not for beginners.

From Wednesday the 23rd onward, the wind swings onshore from the south and southeast. Swell sizes range from 3ft to 8ft, but the wind state is consistently choppy or messy. The energy is moderate to strong, but the wind ruins any chance of clean waves. There’s a long gap of poor conditions from the 23rd all the way to the end of the forecast on the 30th. Nothing surfable in that stretch.

Best bet: Tuesday afternoon, September 15th. Glossy conditions, clean 6ft SSW swell. That’s the one to circle. Wednesday afternoon is also worth a look for the experienced crew.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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