Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, it’s Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for Papa Tangaroa over the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a decent pulse of swell on the way, but the first few days are going to be a bit of a write-off.

Right now, through the weekend, the wind is all over the place. Friday the 11th kicks off with a solid 8ft SW swell, but it’s raining and the wind is onshore. The combined energy is a meaty 3220, but with that wind, it’s just not going to be clean. Saturday is similar, with an 8ft SW swell, but the wind is cross or cross-on, so we’re still dealing with bumpy surface. Sunday the 13th the wind picks up even more, and the conditions are straight-up poor. It’s a bit of a frustrating start, but the longer period groundswell is already there in the water.

The real change comes mid-week. The standout is Wednesday the 16th afternoon through Thursday the 17th. By Wednesday afternoon, the wind swings offshore from the NNE, and we’ve got a 4ft SW swell with a very long period of 19 seconds. The combined energy is 1284, and the report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is that long-period groundswell we love – it’s going to wrap in clean, offering good shape. Thursday morning the offshore wind holds, the swell bumps up slightly to 5ft from the SW with an 18-second period and 1323 energy. This is the sweet spot. Keep in mind, a long period like this means the sets will be less frequent, but the waves will have plenty of power. For an advanced crew, this is looking prime.

Be warned, though: after Thursday, the wind gets stronger. From Friday the 18th into the next weekend, we’re looking at fresh offshore breezes, but the swell drops right down to around 4ft – 4ft. It’s clean, but the energy drops significantly, into the 600s and 700s. It’ll be fun for a smaller board, but not the standout.

Then, we’ve got another interesting pulse around Monday the 21st. The swell holds around 5ft from the WSW, the wind goes light offshore, and energy is 556. The report even says “expect very good surf conditions.” It’s a smaller window, and the period drops to 11 seconds, so it’s a bit more of a mixed bag. It’s promising, but less certain than the Wednesday/Thursday window. After that, the wind gets messy again.

The water temperature is currently 69°, which is about 1° warmer than usual for this time of year – so pretty much average, nothing unusual.

So for the true standout, if you’re free, get on Wednesday the 16th afternoon or Thursday the 17th morning at Papa Tangaroa. The offshore wind and the long-period SW groundswell will be delivering clean, powerful waves for the experienced crew. It’s a reef break, so it’s not for the faint of heart, but for those who know it, it’s the best window of the outlook.

Keep an eye on that second window around the 21st, too – it could be a nice, lighter option.

Rusty.

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