Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Papa Tangaroa. This is a heavy reef break, so it’s strictly for the experienced crew. The water temp is sitting at 69°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The opening part of the forecast looks rough. On Friday the 24th, we’ve got a solid 13ft to 15ft SW swell rolling in, but the wind is howling from the west at 22 mph, putting a lumpy cross-chop all over it. The combined energy is massive – 8920 to 9744 – but it’s a mess. Not worth paddling out. Saturday the 25th is not much better, with 12ft to 13ft SW swell, but the wind is cross-onshore and choppy. Energy is still high (6552 to 4922), but it’s ugly.

Now, Sunday the 26th is the standout. The morning goes glassy, with a 10ft SW swell (2443 energy) and a 12-second period. That’s a long-period groundswell, and on a reef, that’s going to produce some proper, powerful lines. The afternoon cleans up even more with a light offshore NNW breeze at 3 mph, and the swell drops to 8ft (1952 energy). This is the best window: clean, organised, and serious. The only catch is that crowds are rare here, so you might get a bit of space.

Monday the 27th sees the swell dropping to 7ft and then 5ft, with a clean cross-offshore wind, but the energy drops to 1179 and then 732. It’s still rideable, but not as punchy. Tuesday the 28th is a write-off, with onshore wind and rain showers. Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th offer small, marginal waves in the 4ft to 4ft range, with inconsistent energy (929 to 1211). Not much to get excited about.

Friday the 31st brings a slight bump, with 6ft to 7ft SW swell and 1629 energy, but the wind is cross-shore again, so it’ll be a bit lumpy. The first weekend of August (1st and 2nd) has 6ft to 8ft SW swell with clean cross-offshore wind, but energy is moderate (1209 to 1898). It’s alright, but not the standout.

The real long-range promise comes on the 8th of August. Saturday morning shows an 8ft SW swell with a 17-second period and 4999 energy. That’s a very long-period groundswell, and combined with a clean cross-offshore wind, it could be special. The afternoon drops to 4093 energy with a cross-shore wind, but still worth a look. Keep an eye on that – it’s a week and a half out, so treat it as promising but not locked in.

Overall, if you’ve got the skills for Papa Tangaroa, Sunday the 26th is your best bet. The 8th of August is the one to watch for later.

Rusty.

Read more