Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and here’s how it’s looking for Papa Tangaroa.

We’ve got a slow start, but once the conditions line up, this reef set-up is set to fire. The water’s sitting at 69°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The opening days are a bit of a write-off. Thursday the 10th is messy, with a 10ft west swell and a strong cross-shore wind kicking up chop. The combined energy is pumping at 3081, but it’s not surfable. Friday the 11th morning is still marginal, but then—hold onto your board—Friday afternoon, the wind swings southeast and goes glassy. That’s the moment. A 7ft southwest groundswell with a 16-second period rolls in, and the combined energy is a hefty 4070. For an advanced reef break, this is the standout. The swell direction is a perfect match for the optimum, and with glassy conditions, you’re looking at clean, powerful lines. It’s a proper groundswell, so expect long, walling waves that are best for experienced surfers only.

The weekend gets a bit lumpy again. Saturday the 12th morning has an 8ft southwest swell but onshore wind messes it up, and by Sunday, the swell drops to 6ft with more cross-onshore chop. The energy drops to around 1053–1092, so it’s not worth paddling out.

Monday the 14th is still marginal, but then Tuesday the 15th brings a real change. The wind shifts cross-offshore, and the swell settles to 5–6ft with a clean face. The energy is moderate at 884–977, and it’s a solid, surfable option for the confident surfer.

Now, Wednesday the 16th through Thursday the 17th is the second real standout. Offshore winds from the north-northeast and north-northwest, combined with a 3–5ft southwest swell, but here’s the kicker—the period jumps to 18–20 seconds. That’s very long-period groundswell, and the energy sits around 1053–1500. The waves will be clean, long, and powerful, but that long period means it’ll be breaking a bit straight at the reef, so you’ll need to pick your spots. It’s still excellent for experienced surfers.

After that, it gets messy again. Friday the 18th has offshore wind but the energy drops, and by Saturday the 19th, the wind is howling at 28–31 mph. That’s a no-go. Sunday the 20th through Tuesday the 22nd is a complete write-off with strong cross-shore winds and lumpy, poor surf. The end of the period—Wednesday the 23rd to Friday the 25th—has some clean cross-off wind but the energy is moderate, and the swell is around 5–6ft. It’s marginal, but with the fresh breeze, it’s not worth the paddle.

So, the best on offer is Friday afternoon, September 11, with that glassy, 7ft groundswell, and then Wednesday the 16th through Thursday the 17th for the clean, long-period swell. Get out there if you’re good enough.

Rusty.

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