Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let's talk surf.

Alright folks, let’s get into it. The long-range models are showing a serious pulse of energy for Papa Tangaroa (Tanga-Roa) with a massive, very long-period south swell lining up for the back half of the month. But the first week or so is a bit of a write-off from a quality standpoint. We’ve got a lot of wind and weather to sit through before the good stuff arrives.

The water temp is sitting at 71°F, which is about what you'd expect for this time of year—nothing wild there.

We kick off Monday afternoon, the 6th of July, but honestly, don't get too excited. There’s a 12ft SW swell on the cards, but a strong WNW wind is blowing 25 mph across it. That's making for messy, marginal conditions. The wave energy is high at (4276) but it's not doing us any favors right now.

Tuesday morning the 7th is still a washout with a cross-shore wind on a 7ft SSW swell. The tide and conditions look funky. However, Tuesday afternoon cleans up nicely. The wind drops to a light WNW breeze at 6 mph, going cross-offshore, and we have a 8ft SSW swell with a long 14-second period. The combined energy is solid (2512), and it's clean. That’s your best bet for the first week—a solid window of clean, powerful surf for experienced surfers.

Wednesday drops off quickly. By Thursday the 9th, the swell fades to 4ft and the wind goes onshore. We're looking at a few days of junk from Friday the 10th through to Tuesday the 14th. Strong winds, chopped-up conditions, and a lot of cross-shore mess. There are a couple of windows on the 13th and 14th where it might be worth a look if you're desperate, but the swell is short period and the wind is just okay.

Now, the real standouts come in the second week. Let’s talk about Friday, July 17th. The late afternoon brings a solid 8ft SSW swell with a very long 14-second period, 12 mph NW cross-offshore wind, and a combined energy of 3846. It's clean and powerful. But the real gem is Saturday, July 18th. This is the big one. We have a 13ft SSW swell with a very long 14-second period, and glassy conditions—absolutely zero wind. The combined energy is a massive 6249, described as exceptional for expert surfers. This is a serious, serious groundswell. For a reef break like Papa Tangaroa, that long period is going to produce some proper, grinding, focused lines. It’s for experts only though—this is not a wave for the faint-hearted.

Sunday the 19th is also worth a mention, with an 8ft S swell and a clean offshore breeze from the north in the afternoon. It’s not the beast Saturday is, but it’ll still offer a great session for the experienced crew. After that, the swell fades fast and the wind picks back up for the last few days, looking pretty grim.

So, to break it down:
- Week 1 Standout: Tuesday afternoon, July 7th. Clean, long-period SSW swell with light winds. For experienced surfers.
- The Big One: Saturday morning, July 18th. Glassy, huge, long-period SSW groundswell. Experts only. This is the one to circle.

This is a setup that rewards patience. A lot of junk to wade through, but the payoff a week and a half out is massive. Keep your eye on the 18th.

Rusty.

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