Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a solid run of swell coming through for Papa Tangaroa, but it’s a bit of a mixed bag with the wind, so you’ve got to pick your moments.

The main event kicks off Thursday morning, 30 July. That’s when we see the first real window of opportunity. The swell is a clean 5 ft from the SW, with a 12-second period that’s got some proper groundswell energy behind it. The combined energy is a meaty 1048, which is moderate but solid. The wind is a light cross-offshore breeze from the WNW at 6 mph, which is going to leave the surface glassy. This is the standout for the week. Experienced surfers are going to have a good time here. The water temperature is sitting around average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Thursday afternoon, the wind picks up to 16 mph from the NW, and it’s still cross-off, but the quality drops off fast. The swell is the same size, but the breeze is stronger, making it less appealing. Don’t waste your afternoon.

Friday through Saturday, the swell builds to 7 ft – 8 ft from the WSW, but the wind is a fresh cross-offshore, blowing 19-22 mph. That’s stiff. The combined energy climbs into the 1200-1700 range, so there’s power, but the wind is going to mess with the surface. It’s still rideable for the experienced crew, but it won’t be as clean as Thursday morning.

Sunday, 2 August, the wind swings to a light cross-onshore from the SW, with the swell dropping back to 6 ft from the SSW. The period is still a solid 12 seconds, but the wind isn’t doing us any favours. It’s a marginal day.

Monday, 3 August, is a weird one. Monday morning is a write-off – 10 ft from the SSW with a 16-second period (very long period groundswell), but the wind is a strong cross-onshore from the SE at 19 mph. The combined energy is massive at 5393, but it’s going to be a lumpy, messy mess. However, Monday afternoon looks a lot better. The wind backs off to a moderate cross-offshore from the WNW at 12 mph, and the swell is still 10 ft with that 16-second period. The energy jumps to 6608. This is a big, powerful, clean wave for the experts. The long period means it’ll be a bit straight at the take-off, but at a reef break like Papa Tangaroa, it should groom into some proper barrels. This is the second standout of the outlook.

From Tuesday, 4 August, through to the end of the first week and into the second week, it’s a long stretch of poor conditions. The wind is onshore or strong cross-onshore from the SSE, SE, or ESE, blowing 19-28 mph. The swell varies from 4 ft to 10 ft, and the energy is strong, but the wind just ruins it. The 7th and 8th of August have some very long period SW groundswell (18-19 seconds), but with strong winds, you’re just looking at a washing machine. Get the kite out if you’re into that, because it’s not paddle-friendly.

We get a bit of a glimmer on Tuesday, 11 August, in the afternoon. The wind goes light cross-offshore from the NE at 6 mph, and the swell is 8 ft from the SSW with a 13-second period. The combined energy is 2881, and the report says excellent for experienced surfers. That’s a solid window if you can wait that long.

The rest of the second week, from 12 August onward, is mostly windy and messy again, with a few marginal moments but nothing that beats the Thursday morning or Monday afternoon of the first week.

So, if you’re picking your days, Thursday morning, 30 July, is your best bet for a clean, fun session. Monday afternoon, 3 August, is the big-wave day for the experts. Everything else is a gamble on the wind.

Rusty out.

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