Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty.

Alright, let's have a proper look at what's on offer for the next couple of weeks. The early part of the outlook is a write-off, I'm afraid. We've got a solid, onshore southerly blow hammering the coast through to the end of the weekend, which is just mashing up a decent-sized 13-foot swell. Not a chance of a wave worth paddling for. They're calling it "poor surf conditions" and I'm not gonna argue with that. The energy is huge—over 5600—but with 25 mph winds straight on it, it's just a washing machine.

We’ve then got a long gap with no good surf until Monday the 10th.

That Monday morning, the 10th of August, is when things finally turn. The wind swings around to a glassy NNW, and it’s *on*. Papa Tangaroa (Tanga-Roa) is looking at a 7-foot swell from the WSW. The period stretches way out to 14 seconds, which means it's a proper groundswell, packing serious punch. The combined energy is sitting at 3189, so there's plenty of grunt in the water. For a reef break like this, that long-period, clean swell is going to set up some beautiful, well-shaped lines. This is the standout of the whole outlook—excellent conditions for experienced surfers. The water is sitting at 69°F, which is about what you'd expect for this time of year.

Later that Monday afternoon, we get a 7-foot SW swell at 18 seconds, which is a very long period, and a clean cross-offshore wind. It’s marked as marginal though, probably a tide issue, but the window of quality is there.

Tuesday the 11th is a write-off again as the wind turns cross-onshore and the swell gets a bit too unruly and lumpy. Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th offer only marginal windows with cleanish winds but messy, onshore chop in the mix.

Friday the 14th of August morning is another highlight. We get a big 10-foot SW groundswell, again with a long 14-second period, and clean, light cross-offshore winds. The energy is a solid 2882, and the forecast says it's excellent for experienced surfers. This is a proper session for the crew who know what they're doing—that size at that period on a reef requires your full attention.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th hangs in there, with the swell staying in the 8-foot to 10-foot range and the wind holding cross-offshore. The energy is high (over 3500 on Saturday arvo), but the forecasts start calling it "marginal", so the quality might be a bit mixed with cloudy conditions and the odd risk of a thunderstorm on the Sunday.

After that, into the second week, the swell starts to back off. From Monday the 17th onwards, we're looking at clean, cross-off winds, but the swell drops below 7 feet and the energy tapers off significantly, down to around 600-800 by the 19th and 20th. The period stays long on the 20th (19 seconds!), but with the swell only at 3 to 3 feet, it's going to be pretty weak. Winds also get messy again towards the end of the week.

And that final weekend, the 22nd, sees a big, ugly, short-period swell (12 feet to 16 feet at 9-12 seconds) slamming in with a strong cross-onshore wind. That's a messy, lumpy grey mess—definitely a kite surfer's playground, not for the paddle crew.

So to wrap it up: the entire first week is a no-go until Monday morning the 10th. That Monday morning and Friday the 14th morning are your absolute best bets for clean, powerful, long-period waves at Papa Tangaroa. The second week is a slow wind-down with smaller, cleaner but weaker waves.

Rusty.

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