Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Papa Tangaroa. This is a solid, exposed reef setup that needs a south swell to get going, and it's looking like a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks.

Right now, the ocean is a mess. We've got a 6ft swell from the WSW, but a strong cross-onshore wind is making it choppy and poor. You'll want to sit this one out. Friday is a write-off.

But hold onto your board shorts, because the real window opens on Saturday, 18 July. It's not the biggest swell, coming in at 5ft from the SW, but the real story is the glassy conditions on the Saturday morning. The wind is set to swing light and variable, offering up that elusive, clean, mirror-like surface. The wave energy is moderate (605), and the period is a middling 9 seconds, so it won't be a freight train, but the quality of the ride will be all about the lack of wind. If you can get out for the early session, you'll be rewarded with clean, lined-up waves. The afternoon stays clean with a light cross-offshore breeze.

The Sunday is a bit of a dud with onshore winds, so we'll skip that. Monday, 20 July is another pick of the week. The swell drops to 4ft from the WSW, but it's still clean. The morning session is looking good with light cross-off winds, and the afternoon is a real treat. The swell drops further to 3ft, but the period jumps to a very long 16 seconds, and the wind goes full offshore from the north. This is a 655 (moderate energy) groundswell with clean conditions. For a reef like this, those long-period waves will be your best friend, offering up steep, powerful lines.

Now, things get interesting and a bit dicey. From Tuesday, 21 July, the swell balloons. The energy readings go through the roof, hitting 2877 and then over 5000 by Wednesday and Thursday. The surf is going to be huge, well over 8ft and up to 10ft, with a very long period of 15-24 seconds. This is powerful, expert-level territory. The wind is mostly cross-on or onshore, which will make these big sets lumpy and tricky. While the raw power is there, the conditions are only marginal at best. This is strictly for the big-wave chargers, and even then, it's going to be a battle. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing too unusual there.

The second week of the forecast is a bit of a letdown after that pump. The swell stays waist to head-high for most of the week, but the wind is often cross-onshore, keeping the quality down. There is a standout moment to keep an eye on, though. Wednesday, 29 July, the afternoon is looking excellent. The swell comes back up to 10ft from the WSW, but the wind is forecast to be light offshore from the north-northeast. The energy is strong (3224) and the period is a solid 13 seconds. The finder is calling it "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers," and with that combo of size and clean wind, that's a promising call for the experienced crew. After that, it drops back down into a messy, windy pattern for the rest of the month.

So, to sum it up: the best clean waves for the average surfer are on Saturday morning, 18 July, and Monday, 20 July. For the fearless experts, the windows of clean, big swell on 29 July are the real target, but everything else is a bit of a gamble with the wind.

Rusty.

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