Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down. Things are looking pretty quiet early on for Papa Tangaroa, but there’s some serious juice building later in the window. The first few days are a write-off with strong winds and messy conditions, so don’t bother paddling out just yet. The water is sitting at 70° right now, which is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual.

Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th are a no-go. Strong cross-offshore winds up to 28 mph on Tuesday, dropping slightly but still cross on Wednesday, with marginal to poor surf. The waves are small anyway, around 3 ft to 3 ft, and the energy is weak. Not worth it.

Thursday the 16th shows a little more size, around 6 ft to 6 ft from the WSW, with moderate energy. Winds are lighter but still cross, so the surface is a bit messy. Still just a marginal call.

Friday the 17th is a mess again. Swell around 7 ft to 7 ft, but period is short (7 to 8 seconds) and winds are fresh cross-onshore at 19 mph. Lumpy, choppy, poor. Skip it.

Saturday the 18th is the first real standout in the first week. Morning starts with light WNW winds at 3 mph, almost glassy, and the swell is 5 ft from the WSW with a period of 9 seconds. The energy is moderate. Afternoon gets even better: light offshore from the NNW at 6 mph, 5 ft swell, period stretching to 10 seconds. Clean conditions, a little lump early but smoothing out. This is your best bet for the first week – clean, fun, and the crowds are rare at this spot so you’ll have it mostly to yourself.

Sunday the 19th turns ugly again with onshore winds and choppy conditions. Monday the 20th is a bit better in the afternoon with light cross-offshore winds and clean surf around 4 ft, but it’s small.

Now, the second week gets interesting. From Tuesday the 22nd, the swell picks up with longer periods. Wednesday the 22nd has 4 ft to 5 ft from the SW with periods of 19 to 20 seconds – that’s proper groundswell. Energy is strong. Winds are cross-offshore, keeping it clean. This is a solid option for the more experienced.

Thursday the 23rd holds similar size (5 ft to 5 ft) but the period drops a bit to 16-17 seconds, still good. Winds are strong from the NW at 25 mph in the morning, but it’s cross-off, so the surface stays clean. Energy is still strong. Crowds are rare, so you’re in for a treat.

Then the big stuff arrives. Saturday the 25th is a standout. Swell jumps to 16 ft from the WSW, with a 14-second period, and the energy is massive. Winds are cross-offshore, keeping it clean. This is expert territory – over 8 ft, so only for the experienced. The reef at Papa Tangaroa will handle this long-period swell well, but it’s going to be a beast. Don’t even think about taking a beginner out.

Monday the 27th is another highlight. Morning is glassy (W at 3 mph), with 8 ft swell from the SW, period 12 seconds, energy strong. Afternoon gets even better: 15 ft from the W, 11-second period, offshore from the N at 9 mph, clean and powerful. Excellent for experienced surfers.

Tuesday the 28th is huge – 21 ft from the WSW, 14-15 second period, and energy over 16,000. Winds are strong offshore from the NNW at 25-28 mph, so it’s clean but absolutely massive. This is only for the most skilled, and even then, paddling in will be a mission. The forecast says it might be too big even for this break, so be careful.

The last couple of days, the 29th, still have big swell (15 ft to 16 ft) with clean conditions, but the size is dropping. Still a solid option for experts.

Overall, the standout days are Saturday the 18th for a fun, clean, smaller session, and Saturday the 25th and Monday the 27th for the big, clean groundswell. If you’re an expert, the 25th through the 28th are your window. Don’t bother with the first week until the 18th.

Rusty.

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