Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming for Papa Tangaroa.

We’ve got a solid run of surf ahead, but the first few days are rough. Strong winds are going to make things messy. The real gems come later, and there are a couple of sessions that look absolutely perfect. The water is sitting at about 71°, which is roughly a degree warmer than normal for this time of year – feels a bit mild, good for a long session.

Friday the 3rd starts with a solid 12ft swell out of the SSW, but that cross-on SW wind at 6 mph will put a bit of a bump on the surface. It’s not terrible, just average. Saturday the 4th sees the swell drop a bit to 10ft, but the wind swings to a strong WNW at 22 mph, making it clean but heavy. Over 8ft is expert territory, so this one’s for the big dogs only. Sunday the 5th stays big and windy, still too much for most.

The whole first week is pretty much blown out or just too big. Monday the 6th has the swell down to 6ft, but with a near gale blowing, you’d be mad to paddle out. Tuesday and Wednesday stay in that 6ft to 8ft range, but the wind is howling. The combined energy is still in the thousands, so there’s plenty of power, but it’s not surfable for most.

Now, here’s where it gets good. Thursday the 10th is a write-off with messy cross-shore winds, but then we hit the jackpot on Friday the 11th afternoon. The wind drops to glassy 3 mph from the south, and we’ve got a 4ft SSW swell. It’s clean, it’s smooth, and it’s a proper surf session. The combined energy is 731 – moderate, but the quality will be high.

Saturday the 12th is even better. Zero wind, glassy conditions all day, with a 4ft to 4ft swell from the south. That’s the kind of morning you get excited for. Sunday the 13th keeps the good times rolling with glassy conditions in the morning and a 5ft SSW swell in the afternoon with a light offshore breeze. These few days are the absolute best of the run.

It gets a bit wobbly again mid-week. Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th are just okay, with moderate winds and choppier conditions. But then, Friday the 17th afternoon – look out. It goes glassy again with a solid 7ft swell from the west. That’s a proper wave for experienced surfers. The combined energy is 1564, so there’s good power behind it. That’s the one to circle on the calendar if you’ve got the skill.

The last day, Saturday the 18th, has a bit of size again at 7ft but the wind ramps up, so it’s back to being a bit messy.

So, to sum it up: the standouts are Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th for clean, glassy conditions on a smaller swell, and Friday the 17th afternoon for the bigger, cleaner stuff for the experienced crew. The rest of the time you’re either battling wind or sizing up some heavy sets.

Stay safe out there.
Rusty

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