Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's break down what's on the cards for the next couple of weeks at Papa Tangaroa.

We’re looking at a real mixed bag ahead. The swell is going to come up, drop off, and then come up again, but the consistency and quality are going to be a real battle. The water temp is sitting at 71° with basically no anomaly, so it’s about average for the time of year.

There’s no surf on offer right at the start. The first couple of days are a write-off. We’ve got a stormy Monday the 6th with a big 12ft swell but a howling 22 mph cross-onshore, and that’s just ugly. That trend continues into Tuesday the 7th and Wednesday the 8th with onshore winds and messy conditions. Expect about a three-day gap before anything decent shows up.

Things start to look up on Thursday morning, the 9th. We get a drop to a 4ft swell from the SSW, and the wind goes glassy. That'll be your first chance for a clean, albeit small, paddle. The combined energy is still pretty weak (645), but the window is good.

Friday morning the 10th is *the* standout for the first week. A 6ft SSW swell with a nice 13-second period and a solid 12 mph offshore wind from the north. That’s moderate offshore and clean. (963) energy. That’s the session to circle on the calendar.

After that it gets a bit average again. The weekend has cross-onshore winds and sloppy conditions. Then we hit a dry spell. From the 11th through to the 15th, it's mostly poor or marginal with strong winds making a mess. The energy drops right off.

The second week has a couple of interesting prospects, but they’re more of a promise than a certainty. Thursday the 16th morning has a tiny 2ft swell but with an incredible 20-second period from the south, blowing fresh offshore. That’s a super long period groundswell, but it’s tiny. Good luck paddling into that. That afternoon, the swell jumps to 4ft with an 18-second period and a strong offshore wind. It says it’s hard to paddle into, so that’s one for the experts and those on a gun.

Then on Sunday the 19th, we get a pulse. The morning has a solid 10ft WSW swell with a clean light offshore wind. That’s excellent conditions for experienced surfers. The energy is strong (1970). The day after, Monday the 20th, gets massive with an 18ft swell, but it arrives with a strong cross-shore wind that will make it a messy, dangerous mess. That’s for the truly mad, or more likely, kite surfers.

So, if you’re picking a time, your best bet is the Friday morning of the 10th for clean, moderate waves with offshore wind. The Sunday morning of the 19th is another standout if you’ve got the chops for a big swell.

Rusty.

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