Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down. For the next 16 days at this reef, we’re looking at a wild ride. There’s some serious size, but the wind is going to mess with a lot of it. The one to really mark on your calendar is next Tuesday afternoon, with another good window the following Thursday.

We kick off this Saturday the 4th with a big, powerful SSW groundswell. The combined energy is a strong 4423, and the swell is 10 feet high with a 16-second period. That’s a heavy, expert-only wave. The wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-off from the WNW, which keeps the surface clean but makes the takeoffs tricky. It’s raw power, but not the kind of clean ride you dream about. Sunday the 5th drops to 6 feet in the morning with that long period, still strong energy, but the cross-off wind picks up to a strong breeze, so it’s less appealing. Sunday afternoon is poor.

Monday the 6th is a total washout. We get a jumbled 15-foot swell from the west with a short 11-second period and near gale-force cross-off winds. That’s kite surfing territory, not paddle surfing.

Then we hit Tuesday the 7th. The morning is still messy, but the afternoon is the first standout. The wind drops to a glassy 3 mph from the south. The swell settles to 8 feet from the SSW with a 14-second period. The combined energy is still strong at 3055. The data says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and that’s the truth. Clean, glassy, powerful waves on the reef. This is the one. Water temp is about average for this time of year.

Wednesday the 8th is blown out, but Thursday the 9th afternoon is another gem. Dead calm wind, 12 feet of SSW swell with a 12-second period, and combined energy of 3683. It’s a monster, but it will be perfect. Expert only, but absolutely epic.

From Friday the 10th all the way through Wednesday the 15th, it’s a long, flat, and windy stretch. Onshore winds and dropping swell. Combined energy is mostly low to moderate. The surf quality is poor or marginal the whole time. A big gap with no real action.

Finally, on the 16th of July, Thursday morning brings a small 3-foot SW swell with a very long 17-second period and light offshore winds from the NNW. Expect very good, clean conditions. The long period might make it a bit fat on the reef, but it’ll be a fun, clean day. The afternoon stays clean with a moderate offshore and 3-foot swell. A nice way to end, but nothing like the power earlier.

The 18th of July also shows some hope with a 6-foot SW swell and gentle offshore winds in the morning, but the period is a short 10 seconds and the energy is moderate. It’s an option if you’re keen.

Best bets: Tuesday the 7th afternoon for the glassy, big-wave perfection, and Thursday the 9th afternoon for another round of clean power. The rest is either too windy or too small.

- Rusty

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