Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what the 16-day window has in store for us at this one special break.

The coming days offer up some real potential, but you’ve got to pick your moments. The first few days bring some clean surf, then we get a big pulse of swell that’s pretty much blown out, followed by a long quiet spell before a possible return to form right at the very end. The standout window is right at the start, Tuesday afternoon the 15th and into Wednesday the 16th.

Right out of the gate, Tuesday afternoon, September 15th, is the pick of the whole period. Papa Tangaroa will be seeing a clean 6 ft SSW swell, which is a solid size for experienced crew. The wind is glassy – 3 mph from the north, dead calm. That’s a major positive. The water is sitting at 69°, which is about normal for the time of year, nothing wild there. The combined swell energy is moderate at 955, but the combo of that size with perfect wind is what makes it shine. This is the one to aim for.

Wednesday the 16th is also a good call. The morning drops a touch to 3 ft, but that’s a long-period SW groundswell at 21 seconds – that’s a groundswell, and it’ll wrap nicely into a reef setup like this. Winds are light cross-off from the WNW. The afternoon bumps up to 4 ft with a 19-second period and the energy jumps to 1321. It’s ‘excellent for experienced surfers’ again.

Thursday the 17th through Friday the 18th are on the decline. The swell holds around 4 ft, but the wind picks up from the NW. Thursday morning sees 16 mph cross-off, and by afternoon it’s 19 mph. It starts getting lumpy. Friday brings rain showers and 12 mph winds. It’s all still clean but marginal. Not the best.

Saturday the 19th is a write-off. We get a 25-28 mph offshore wind from the NNW which is strong offshore – it’s clean but it’ll be near impossible to paddle into. The swell is only 3-4 ft and the period is dropping. Skip it.

Then we hit a rough patch. From Sunday the 20th morning through to Monday the 28th, there’s almost nothing worth paddling out for. Sunday morning is a dead flat 0.7 ft, energy of 18. Sunday afternoon jumps to 8 ft from the WSW but with 25 mph cross-off wind – messy. A massive swell comes in from the 21st to the 22nd, with 12 ft to 15 ft waves from the west with 12-second periods. The energy is huge – 3900 to over 6000 – but the wind is screaming 25-28 mph cross-off, which will make it a mountain of chop. This is expert-only, and even then, it’s gonna be tough going. For anyone else, at a beach it might look more interesting for kite surfing. Thursday the 24th through Sunday the 27th sees onshore and cross-on winds from the south and southeast, with messy, lumpy conditions. Not your friend.

Finally, a little hope returns on Monday the 28th and into Tuesday the 29th. The swell drops back to a more manageable 5 ft from the SW, and the wind starts to ease off, turning cross-off from the ENE at 19 mph. Tuesday the 29th sees 4 ft SW swell with 16-second period and lighter 16 mph winds from the NE. That’s a clean option, though the energy is down around 857-957. It’s not the stand-out of the first days, but after a week of junk, it looks good.

And the very end of the window, Wednesday the 30th, has a little gem. Moderate offshore winds from the N at 12-16 mph, clean, with 4 ft SW swell. The reports say ‘expect very good surf conditions’ for the afternoon. Keep an eye on that one; it’s 16 days out, so less certain, but it’s a promising note to finish on.

So, the call is clear: Tuesday 15th afternoon at Papa Tangaroa is the best of the bunch. Get in the water. Wednesday 16th is the strong backup.

Rusty.

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