Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line.

Right out of the gate, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – these next few days are a write-off. From Friday the 11th right through to Tuesday the 15th, the surf at Papa Tangaroa is messy and confused. We’ve got solid swell in the water, with waves hitting 8 ft on Friday morning, but the wind is all over the shop – onshore or cross-on for most of it. That combined wave energy is huge, over 3000 (3220) on Friday morning, but the quality just isn’t there. You’d be fighting a losing battle.

Now, hold onto your board, because Wednesday the 16th is where it gets good. We get a proper change. The swell drops a bit to 3 ft in the morning, but the period jumps to a very long 21 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy. The wind turns offshore and light, making for clean conditions. The combined energy is still solid at 1215. This is a classic reef set-up, so that long period will wrap in beautifully, giving you long, peeling waves. This is the standout of the whole forecast – clean, lined-up, and sweet. Thursday the 17th keeps that run going with 5 ft swell and a clean offshore breeze from the north. It’s on. Papa Tangaroa is the spot for the second half of this week.

The weekend of the 20th and 21st takes a bit of a dip. The wind gets howling out of the north – fresh to strong breeze – which makes paddling hard. The swell drops and the combined energy falls away to under 800. It’s offshore, but it’s so strong it’s a battle. The following Monday and Tuesday the 22nd and 23rd are pretty poor with onshore winds and low scores. We then get a big pulse of swell again around the 24th and 25th, with waves over 7 ft and combined energy over 2000, but the wind stays cross-onshore or cross, keeping it choppy. That bigger stuff might actually be more interesting for kite surfing than a clean paddle session.

Looking further out, the last few days of the month have some size – 10 ft by Saturday the 26th – but again, cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions mean it’s not the clean, classic Papa Tangaroa we saw mid-week. The water temp is sitting at 69°F, which is about where you’d expect it for this time of year, no nasty surprises there.

So, to put it simply: the first half of the forecast is a bin fire. Don’t even bother. The absolute gem is Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th. Get out there then for the best of it.

Rusty.

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