Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Papa Tangaroa. This is a heavy, advanced reef break, and it’s fairly consistent, so when it’s on, it’s on. The water temp is sitting at 70°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year.

The first half of this outlook is a bit of a mixed bag. We’re looking at a solid swell starting on the 14th, but the wind is a mess. Tuesday afternoon the 14th sees a 3ft WSW swell, but a strong 28 mph WNW cross-off wind is just going to tear it up, and the wave energy is moderate (553). It’s a pass for me.

Wednesday the 15th has a bigger 6ft W swell in the morning, but it’s a cross-wind and lumpy. The energy is strong (1350), but the quality just isn’t there. The afternoon drops to 3ft but with a super long 18-second period; the energy is still strong (1084), but again, the wind is cross-shore and messy.

Thursday the 16th morning is a rain shower with a 6ft WSW swell, 11-second period, and strong energy (1997), but the wind is cross. The afternoon cleans up a bit with a 6ft W swell, 12-second period, and very strong energy (2722), and the wind turns cross-off. It’s cleaner, but still not perfect.

Friday the 17th is a write-off. Strong 7ft swell, but it’s short period (7-8 seconds) and the wind is cross-on and lumpy. The energy is still strong (over 1000), but the conditions are poor.

Saturday the 18th morning is the first real standout. The wind goes offshore and light (3 mph from the N), glassy conditions. The swell is a clean 4ft from the west, 10-second period, with moderate energy (525). This is your window for some clean, lined-up waves at the reef. Crowds are rare here, so you might have it quiet.

The afternoon of the 18th gets a bit of a cross-off breeze and drops off in energy, so the morning is the call.

Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th are a write-off with onshore winds. Monday the 20th afternoon does have a clean cross-off wind, but the swell is a bit weak at 4ft.

Now, looking further out, the 22nd of July is worth a mention. Wednesday morning has a 5ft SW swell, 19-second period, and very strong energy (2674) with a light offshore wind. That’s a long-period groundswell, and at a reef, it’s going to be fat and powerful, with long lulls between sets. The afternoon is a bit bigger at 6ft, but the wind cranks up to 25 mph, so the morning is the pick.

The 23rd keeps the SW swell running. Both the morning and afternoon have clean, cross-off winds. The afternoon is a solid 7ft SW swell at 16 seconds with very strong energy (2144), but at over 5ft, it's getting into expert territory only.

The 24th and 25th see a big pulse of 10ft to 12ft SW swell, but the wind is cross-on and onshore, making it messy and dangerous. That’s big, powerful, and blown out – only for the absolute nuts, and even then, it’s not fun.

The week of the 27th looks like it might clean up. Monday the 27th morning has a 6ft SW swell, 13-second period, with a strong 22 mph offshore wind. That’s a clean, powerful setup. The energy is very strong (2286), and offshore wind on a reef is a beautiful thing. That’s a date to circle. The 28th drops off in size and direction, and the 29th brings another big 12ft swell, but with onshore winds again.

So, if you’re looking for a session, Saturday the 18th morning is your best bet for clean, manageable waves. For a bigger, more powerful session, pencil in Monday the 27th morning – it’s a bit further out so keep an eye on the forecast, but it looks promising.

Rusty out.

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