Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s coming up for Papa Tangaroa. This is a reef break that’s exposed to the south, so we’re looking for a solid south swell to get things going. The water temp is sitting at 69°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The outlook starts off a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got swell on the first couple of days, but the wind is a problem. Saturday the 1st sees a strong 8ft to 8ft WSW swell, with a period of 11 seconds, and a cross-off wind. The combined energy is high (1612-1884), but the forecast says the tide might mess things up, so it’s not a total green light. Sunday the 2nd drops a bit to 5ft-6ft, but we get a rain shower and a cross-on wind, making it choppy. Not the best start.

Then we hit a real rough patch. From Monday the 3rd all the way through to Friday the 7th, it’s pretty much a write-off. The wind is howling onshore or cross-onshore, mostly from the ESE or S, hitting 25-37 mph. There’s still a lot of energy in the water (over 3000 at times), but with that wind, it’s going to be a mess. This is a solid week of poor surf conditions, so don’t bother.

We get a bit of a breather on Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th. The swell drops to 6ft-7ft from the ESE, and the wind turns cross-off. The energy is moderate (around 1200), and the conditions are clean. It’s still listed as marginal, but it’s a big step up from the week before.

Now, the real standout. Monday the 10th starts to show promise, with a 6ft SW groundswell and a period of 18 seconds. The energy is already ramping up to 3533. But the true gem is Tuesday the 11th. We get a 8ft SW groundswell with a 16-second period, and the wind goes light and offshore from the NNW. The combined energy is a massive 3928, and the forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is the best of the bunch. That long period means it’s a proper groundswell, so it’ll be punching hard on the reef. Paddling out might be easier between sets, but the waves will be powerful. This is for the advanced crew only, as 8ft is expert territory.

Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th still look good, with 6ft-6ft SW swells, 13-14 second periods, and light offshore winds. The energy is a bit lower (around 1300), but the conditions are clean. The standout session is still the Tuesday.

The last few days of the run, from the 14th to the 16th, drop off a bit. The wind turns onshore again on Friday the 14th, and then we get a mix of cross and cross-off winds, with the swell hanging around 5ft-8ft. It’s not the cleanest, but it’s better than that first week.

So, overall, if you’re keen, the window to watch is from the 10th of August, but the absolute best day is Tuesday the 11th. That’s the one you want to plan for. It’s going to be heavy, so don’t be a hero if you’re not ready for it.

Rusty.

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