Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the only spot on the menu.

The whole 16 days is all about Papa Tangaroa (Tanga-Roa). It’s a proper heavy reef break, fairly consistent, and open to south swells. Water temp is 71°, which is about 0.9° warmer than the usual for this time of year – nothing crazy, just a touch above average.

We kick off with a big groundswell this weekend. Saturday afternoon the 4th of July brings a solid 8ft SSW swell at 16 seconds. That’s a very long period, meaning real energy and long lulls between sets. The combined energy is a strong 3072. The wind is a cross-off from the NW at 28 mph, keeping the surface smooth, but it’s a strong breeze, so it’ll be a fight. The wave comment says marginal surf due to tide, so it won’t be perfect. Experts only.

Sunday the 5th drops to 6ft SSW at 15 seconds, still long period, but the afternoon wind picks up to 31 mph from the NW, making it a write-off. Monday the 6th is a total mess with 12ft SW swell and howling winds – combined energy hits 4573, but it’s a blown-out, cross-chop disaster. That’s a kite session, not a paddle session.

Tuesday the 7th of July is the first real standout. Morning has 7ft SSW swell, still 15 seconds, and the wind drops to only 9 mph from the W – a gentle cross-shore. That’s as clean as it gets. The afternoon goes light onshore from the SSE at 6 mph, which is nearly glassy. The energy is still 2495, so it’ll have plenty of punch. This is the top pick for the first week.

From Wednesday the 8th through the 11th, the swell fades and the wind gets messy – cross-on or cross-off but mostly too strong or from the wrong angle. The 8th has strong NNW winds, and the 9th and 10th are chopped up by cross-on breezes.

The next real chance is Monday the 13th of July. We’ve got 6ft SSW swell at 13 seconds, and a gentle cross-shore from the E at 9 mph. The energy is a solid 1321. The waves will be clean and user-friendly. A good session for intermediate surfers.

Tuesday the 14th jumps up to 8ft SE swell, but the period drops to 9 seconds – short period, not much grunt. The wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy. Skip it.

Wednesday the 15th of July is the late standout. The morning has 6ft S swell at a very long 16 seconds, with a moderate cross-off from the NE at 16 mph – clean. The afternoon is the real prize: offshore wind from the N at 19 mph, 6ft S swell at 14 seconds. That’s fresh offshore, clean, and a proper groundswell on the reef. This is the best session of the second week.

After that, it fades. Thursday the 16th has small 4ft SSE swell, Friday the 17th drops to 3ft, and the weekend of the 18th and 19th brings back strong cross and cross-on winds with 6ft to 6ft SW swell, but it’s messy and blown out.

So, to sum it up: Tuesday the 7th of July is your best bet for clean, solid waves in the first week, and Wednesday the 15th of July afternoon is the standout for the second week – offshore, decent size, and that long period. Remember, Papa Tangaroa is a reef, long period swells can make it a bit straight, and it’s for advanced riders only. Crowds are rare, so you’ll have it mostly to yourself.

– Rusty

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