Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. The next couple of weeks for Papa Tangaroa are a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s one standout window that has me properly excited.

The pattern starts slow. Sunday the 9th is small and messy, with just 0.7m of SW swell. The water temp is sitting at 21°, which is a touch warmer than average for this time of year – that’s a nice bonus for the session.

Monday the 10th is a write-off. Solid swell coming in at 2.2m, but the wind is howling onshore from the SSW at 25 km/h. It’s a mess. The combined wave energy is decent (3756), but you won’t want to be out there.

Tuesday the 11th is where it starts to get interesting. The morning is still a bit crossed-up with 2.5m SW groundswell and a period of 15 seconds, but the afternoon is the one. The wind drops to glassy from the WNW at just 5 km/h, the swell holds at 2.5m – that’s solid for advanced surfers – and the energy reading is strong at 2711. That’s your first proper window. The long period means it’ll be a bit straight at the beach, but at a reef setup like Papa Tangaroa, that 15-second groundswell will be offering up some real power and shape. This is the standout.

From Wednesday the 12th through Friday the 14th, we slide back into average conditions. Swells stay between 2.1m and 3.0m, but winds are mostly onshore or cross-onshore. Not terrible, but nothing you’d drive for.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th is a no-go. Saturday sees strong cross-offshore winds up to 45 km/h – it’s clean but too windy for good surging waves. By Sunday, it’s near-gale offshore at 50 km/h. The swell is still there, 1.7m and 1.4m, but you won’t be able to paddle into it. This is more of a kite day than a surf day.

Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th are unappealing. Monday has some clean waves with the cross-off breeze, but the period drops to 12 seconds and the energy is average (874 to 2113). Tuesday turns ugly with onshore gales up to 35 km/h.

We then hit a bit of a gap. From Wednesday the 19th right through to Friday the 21st morning, the wind stays onshore. Swell sizes fluctuate from 1.2m up to 2.1m, but the wind is just too poor. It’s a bleak few days.

But then – Friday afternoon the 21st is another promising moment. Light cross-offshore breeze from the NE at 10 km/h, clean conditions, and a smaller 1.4m S swell with 12-second period. Combined energy is 831, so it’s not big, but it’ll be clean and fun for a mellow session. Not a standout, but a good one.

Saturday the 22nd drops off. Swell drops to under 1.0m. Not much happening.

The last hopeful window shows up on Monday the 24th. We get a solid 2.0m WSW groundswell rolling in with a 15-second period, and fresh offshore winds from the NNW at 30 km/h. That’s a recipe for clean, powerful waves. The energy reading is strong at 2286. This is the second standout – it’s a week and a half out, so it’s promising but less certain, but the ingredients are all there.

Papa Tangaroa is a reef break, fairly consistent, and rarely crowded. When the swell direction matches its optimum S-SW setup and the wind goes offshore or glassy, it’s a special place.

– Rusty

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