Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, this is Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s on the cards for Tanga-Roa, over the next couple of weeks. Right now, we’ve got a big window of nothing much to get excited about, but there’s a couple of glimmers way out there that might be worth keeping an eye on. The long-range stuff is less certain, but we’ll take what we can get.

First up, the combined swell energy is sitting in that strong to very strong range with values like 1562, so there’s plenty of water moving, but the conditions are working against us for a while. Things start off rough. Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th have some size – 7 ft dropping to 3 ft – but the wind is howling from the north and northeast at 18 to 31 mph. It’s either cross-off or offshore, but way too strong; Saturday has a fresh breeze and Sunday is a near gale. Not worth paddling out. Monday the 17th is still messy with cross-off wind and heavy rain, 5 ft to 6 ft of SW swell. Tuesday the 18th is onshore and lumpy. Wednesday the 19th is cross-onshore and lumpy. Thursday the 20th is onshore. We’re looking at a solid gap of about a week where there’s almost nothing worth recommending.

Then, things finally start to look up on Friday the 21st. The swell drops to 4 ft from the SW with a long period of 16 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell. The wind swings around to a light breeze from the east, then east-northeast, turning cross-off in the afternoon. The combined energy is 909 in the morning and 854 in the afternoon. The afternoon session is clean, with light cross-off wind. It’s not huge, but it’ll be surfable and likely a bit softer after that long gap. This is the first real standout in the whole outlook – a quiet, gentle day after all that wind.

Saturday the 22nd sees a shift: a 5 ft SE swell with a short period of 10 seconds. The wind is cross-off from the NNW, but it’s a fresh breeze in the afternoon. The combined energy is 498 to 599 – moderate but not that strong. It’s clean, but the short period means it’ll be a bit weaker and less organised. A backup option but not the best.

Sunday the 23rd and Monday the 24th are back to messy cross-onshore and onshore winds with bigger swell (6 ft to 7 ft). Not clean. Tuesday the 25th is the next real highlight. The swell hits 8 ft in the morning and 8 ft in the afternoon, all from the SW with a long period of 16 seconds. The combined energy is huge – 4450 and 3668 – that’s strong. The wind is light cross-on in the morning (only 6 mph) and moderate cross-off in the afternoon. This is solid, powerful groundswell. The size means it’s for experienced surfers only (over 8 ft). This is a big wave day with real punch. The best on offer in the whole 16 days, but it’s over a week away – keep an eye on it.

Wednesday the 26th gets blown out with near gale cross-onshore. Thursday the 27th is lumpy again. Friday the 28th has a massive 15 ft S swell with 12-second period and combined energy of 5844 – that’s very strong and over 8 ft, so experts only – but the wind is cross-onshore, making it rough. Not ideal.

Finally, Saturday the 29th: the morning shows 8 ft SSE swell with a short period (9 seconds) and light cross-on wind. The afternoon is the real gem – glassy conditions, 8 ft SSE swell, period 8 seconds, and combined energy of 1108. This is excellent for experienced surfers. The glassy wind is a massive positive. That’s the second standout, but again, it’s far out.

So, the best on offer across the whole run is Tuesday the 25th with that big, clean SW groundswell, and Saturday the 29th afternoon with glassy, clean conditions. Friday the 21st is a nice reset day after the bad spell. Everything else is either too windy, too onshore, or too big and messy. For the experts, the 29th afternoon is a true standout. For the rest, wait for that Friday the 21st.

Rusty

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