Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mates, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. The surf outlook for the next couple of weeks is a mixed bag, so let me walk you through it.

The opening weekend is a bit of a scratch session. The swell's there, but it's all over the shop. The winds are howling, and the quality is just not there. We have to be patient. We’re looking at a few days of onshores and lumpy conditions before things start to clean up. It’s going to feel like a bit of a wait, maybe a couple of days, before we get anything worth paddling out for.

Here's the rundown.

The first proper chance comes on Sunday afternoon, the 2nd. The wind dies right off and it goes glassy. We've got a 5ft swell from the SSW with a 12-second period, and the water’s still a warm 69°, which is about average for this time of year. It's not giant, but it'll be clean, and after the weekend's bumps, that's a beautiful thing. I'd get on it before the wind swings around.

Monday the 3rd is a complete no-go. The swell jumps up, but a strong SSE wind blows straight into it, making a complete mess. We're looking at 8ft to 15ft of stormy, unsurfable slop. That’s not a surf day; it’s a day to watch from the cliff and be glad you're not out there. The energy is massive (4073, then 9588 on the Monday afternoon), but it's all for nothing with that wind. This continues through to the 7th, with strong, choppy onshores making everything a write-off.

Things start to settle again on Saturday the 8th. The wind turns cross-off, but the swell is still a bit messy and strong. It’s still a bit too rough to be great, but we are seeing the light. Sunday the 9th looks better, with a smaller, cleaner 7ft ESE swell and lighter winds. It's a building trend.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The real standout is shaping up for Wednesday the 12th, through to Thursday the 13th. The wind finally goes offshore and glassy, and the swell fills in nicely.

Wednesday morning starts with a clean 5ft SW swell, but as the day goes on, the winds go offshore with a 6ft SW swell. It's already looking good. But Thursday, the 13th, is the pick of the whole window.

Thursday morning we've got a glassy 10ft SW swell with a 14-second period. This is proper groundswell energy, and with the wind dead calm, it's going to be all-time. The afternoon keeps it at 10ft with a light offshore wind. For this spot, this is the day. This is the one you circle in the calendar. The swell direction is from the SW, which is exactly what this break wants to see. This is a real, solid, powerful swell, and with those conditions, it’s going to be a day for the experienced surfer only. The power is very strong, with the energy reading 3111. This is a clean, strong, lined-up day.

After that, the forecast gets a bit more uncertain. Friday the 14th is looking like a step back, with the wind turning onshore and making things choppy. The swell is still there at 10ft, but the quality is going to drop off. It'll be back to less than ideal conditions.

The last two days, the 15th and 16th, are a bit of a lottery. We still have a decent SW swell, but the winds are inconsistent, and the quality is marginal. It’s a case of checking the forecasts closer to the time. The energy is still moderate (1728 and 1152), but the wind plays a huge part.

So, in short, the window is picking up Sunday the 2nd, with a mid-week stand-out on Thursday the 13th. Don't waste your energy on the blown-out days in between. Be patient, watch the wind, and be ready for Thursday.

Stay stoked.

Rusty.

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