Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I'm looking at this stretch of water for the next couple of weeks. We only got one break in the mix, a serious reef setup that ain't for the faint of heart.

Water temp is sittin' around 69°F, which is about what you'd expect for this time of year. No surprises there.

First thing's first: it's flat for the next few days. Nothin' doin'. The first real chance to paddle out don't come 'til Tuesday the 15th in the afternoon.

So, Tuesday afternoon the 15th, we finally got somethin'. Papa Tangaroa sees a clean 5.6ft swell from the SSW, with a light cross-offshore breeze from the ENE. That means clean lines and not much chop. The combined energy is moderate (1028), so it's got some push but won't be a monster. Good for someone who knows the reef.

Wednesday the 16th is where it gets real interesting. The morning brings a tiny 3ft swell, but listen to this – a 20-second period from the SW. That's proper long-period groundswell (1038 energy). With a light offshore breeze from the N, it'll be glassy. The afternoon gets even better: the swell bumps to 3.9ft from the SW at 19 seconds, and the wind goes glassy from the SE. The energy jumps up to 1408. On a reef like this, that long period means the waves will have shape and power, but you gotta be ready for the sets. Paddlin' out will be easier between the lulls.

Thursday the 17th is still ridable but the wind picks up from the WNW at 12-16 mph. The swell drops a bit to 4.3ft with a 16-18 second period, and it stays cross-offshore, so it'll be clean but a bit bumpier. Energy is still solid (1131-1376).

Friday the 18th sees a return to cleaner conditions. The morning has a 4.3ft SW swell at 15 seconds with a moderate offshore breeze from the NNW. The energy is 971. The afternoon the swell period stretches to 16 seconds and the energy jumps to 1213. Good run.

Now, for the standout. The absolute best is the afternoon of Wednesday the 16th. That 3.9ft swell at 19 seconds with glassy wind is the pick of the bunch. The swell direction from the SW is exactly what this reef wants, and the light conditions mean it'll be as clean as it gets. This is for experienced surfers only on a reef that can be hit or miss.

The end of the first week and into the second week gets ugly. Saturday the 19th is clean but the swell drops and the wind is a strong offshore at 19 mph, making it hard work. Sunday the 20th is blown out by a 28-31 mph offshore that you won't be able to paddle into. There's a four-day gap with no good options from the 20th through to the 23rd.

Monday the 21st brings a new pulse of swell, 5.9ft to 7.2ft from the WSW, but the wind is cross-offshore and moderate. It's ridable but not the quality of the mid-week window.

By Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd, the swell gets big. 9.8ft to 11.5ft from the W and WSW. This is expert territory only, and the wind is strong and cross, making it a messy, lumpy mess. The combined energy is massive (3466-3689). For most folks, this is a kite-surfing show, not a paddle session.

The outlook fades out towards the 27th, with a final flash on Sunday the 27th afternoon: an 8.2ft S swell at 10 seconds, with a gentle cross-offshore breeze from the NW and clean conditions (2387 energy). That's a good note to end on, but it's a long way out.

So, the clear winner is the afternoon of Wednesday the 16th. Get it while it's good, 'cause the second week is a write-off for clean, manageable waves.

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