Surf Forecasts:
Papa Tangaroa surf forecast from 5 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 8 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 12s period, SW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Sunday 6 Sep, 4AM (local time) - 7.5ft (2.3m), 17s period, SW swell with 3,259 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 8 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 5ft (1.6m), 12s period with SW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Papa Tangaroa this week:
The surf forecast for Papa Tangaroa over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 08) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.6m and 12s period with a secondary swell of 0.6m and 8s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Papa Tangaroa in the next 16 days are 2.3m 17s and forecast to arrive on Sunday (Sep 06) at 4AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.5m 7s period and expected on Thursday (Sep 10) at 10AM.
| Wave Type | Time (-06) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Tue 8th Sep) | 5ft (1.6m) 12s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Tue 8th Sep) | 5ft (1.6m) 12s |
| Most Powerful | 4AM (Sun 6th Sep) | 7.5ft (2.3m) 17s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Papa Tangaroa over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a yarn about what’s in store for us at Papa Tangaroa.
Mate, this is a tricky one. The forecast is a bit of a mixed bag for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got some solid groundswell pulsing in from the South-Southwest, but the wind is just not playing ball for most of it. The first week is a real write-off for clean surf, with a consistent cross-shore or cross-onshore breeze making things choppy and messy. The water is sitting at a warm 69°, which is about average for this time of year, so no complaints there.
The first real chance of anything decent won’t be until Tuesday the 15th of September. That’s the standout. The swell is still a good size, around 8 ft from the SSW, and the period is a solid 11 seconds. But the real magic is that it’s glassy. The ESE wind drops to nothing, and the surface goes flat. For a reef break that’s fairly consistent, this is the session to wait for. The wave energy is strong (1644), so it’ll have some punch. It’s a bit big for beginners, but for experienced surfers, it’s going to be excellent.
The following day, Wednesday the 16th, also looks promising. The swell holds in at 7 ft from the SSW, and we get a clean, moderate offshore wind from the North. It’s a little windier, but still clean. The wave energy is still strong (1282). That Wednesday afternoon though, the swell jumps to 12 ft from the South with a 14-second period. That’s a big, powerful groundswell with very strong energy (5040), but it’s also pushing into the expert-only zone. The wind is a cross-off, so it’ll be clean, but you’ll need to be on your game.
After that, the swell starts to ease off through the rest of the second week, with cleaner but smaller conditions. The 18th and 19th have some clean, longer-period swell from the SW, but it’s down to 4 ft and 3 ft, and the rain and a shifting cross-on wind knock the quality back.
Overall, it’s not a long run of good surf. The first week is basically a gap of nothing but chop and onshore wind. The real call is to hold out for that Tuesday the 15th – that’s the one. The 16th is a solid backup, but that 12 ft swell on the afternoon is for the brave only.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Sat night, min 16°C on Fri afternoon). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Thu morning. Warm (max 20°C on Wed night, min 17°C on Mon afternoon). Winds increasing (light winds from the ESE on Mon night, strong winds from the N by Thu morning). | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 4 | Saturday 5 | Sunday 6 | Monday 7 | Tuesday 8 | Wednesday 9 | Thursday 10 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 19 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 17 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 1719 | 778 | 1616 | 1760 | 1288 | 3053 | 3058 | 2422 | 1728 | 1665 | 1228 | 940 | 706 | 503 | 344 | 171 | 236 | 520 | 528 | 1448 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-on | cross | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | off | cross |
High Tide | 1:18AM0.90m | 1:31PM0.62m | 1:56AM0.92m | 2:08PM0.63m | 2:36AM0.91m | 2:47PM0.63m | 3:17AM0.87m | 3:29PM0.62m | 4:01AM0.81m | 4:18PM0.61m | 4:51AM0.73m | 5:17PM0.59m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:40PM0.10m | 7:52AM0.12m | 7:18PM0.08m | 8:29AM0.11m | 7:57PM0.06m | 9:07AM0.12m | 8:39PM0.08m | 9:46AM0.15m | 9:24PM0.11m | 10:30AM0.18m | 10:16PM0.17m | 11:20AM0.22m | 11:20PM0.23m | |||||||
 |  |  | | | | | |  | |  | | | | | |  |  | |  | |
 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:20 | — | — |
 | 7:05 | — | — | 7:06 | — | — | 7:06 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — | — | 7:07 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 8 | 5 |
Temp °C | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
Feels °C | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 18 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 16 | SW 13 | SW 14 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 14 | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 19 | SW 19 | WNW 10 | W 9 |
| kJ | 1719 | 778 | 1616 | 1760 | 1288 | 3053 | 3058 | 2422 | 1728 | 1665 | 1228 | 940 | 706 | 503 | 344 | 171 | 236 | 520 | 754 | 431 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSE 8 | SW 16 | SSE 7 | SSE 7 | SW 18 | NE 7 | ENE 7 | SE 9 | SE 9 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 9 | E 7 | SW 11 | SW 11 | N 7 | SW 17 |
| kJ | 85 | 504 | 27 | 26 | 1112 | 23 | 31 | 27 | 38 | 27 | 15 | 31 | 43 | 61 | 55 | 34 | 76 | 30 | 271 | 1448 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 8 | SSE 7 | NNE 12 | NE 8 | SSE 6 | SSE 7 | SE 9 | NNW 10 | NNW 14 | SE 9 | ESE 8 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 17 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | SW 18 | N 7 |
| kJ | 6 | 57 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 18 | 37 | 25 | 113 | 154 | 133 | 163 | 143 | 22 | 11 | 528 | 134 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | NE 6 | — | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | — | — | — | — | ENE 4 | NE 5 | NE 6 | NNE 6 | NNW 7 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | 10 | — | 36 | 38 | 37 | — | — | — | — | 8 | 67 | 165 | 309 | 539 | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 6 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3515 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3541 | 3525 | 3541 | 3562 | 3541 | 2 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Easter Island | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Chile | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Papa Tangaroa Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Papa Tangaroa provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Papa Tangaroa can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Papa Tangaroa surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Papa Tangaroa) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Papa Tangaroa may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
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