Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gonna give you the straight-up on what’s coming for the next couple of weeks.

We’re looking at a pretty wild ride at Papa Tangaroa (Tanga-Roa), a serious reef break for advanced surfers only. The water is sitting at 70°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year.

Right now, it’s a mess. Wednesday the 12th sees a solid 7ft SW groundswell (13s period), but with a shitty 16 mph southerly wind on it, the surf is a write-off. The raw energy in the water is huge (1637), but you wouldn't want to be out there. Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th are the same story – plenty of swell, up to 10ft on Friday, but the wind is either cross-on or onshore, keeping everything choppy and ugly. That 10ft stuff is only for the gnarliest of experts anyway.

We get a glimmer of hope on Saturday the 15th. The swell drops to a more manageable 7ft from the SW, and the wind swings to a clean cross-offshore from the NE at 19 mph. The morning session is your best bet, with the energy dropping to a moderate 1562. It’s still a late call, but it could clean up. The afternoon turns into a strong offshore (25 mph), which makes it clean but a real mission to paddle into.

Then it gets ugly again. Sunday the 16th is a total no-go with near-gale force winds howling offshore, making it nearly impossible to get out the back. You’d be mad to try. The start of the next week is a write-off, with heavy rain and poor conditions through Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th.

Now, the far end of the forecast gets interesting. On Friday the 21st of August, we’ve got a very promising window. The swell is small, only 4ft to 4ft, but it’s a long-period SW groundswell (15-16s) with light offshore and cross-offshore winds. The energy is moderate (972), and the model is calling for “very good surf conditions”. This is a long-range standout and a bit of a gamble, but if the wind holds, it’ll be clean and lined up.

Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd see a shift in swell direction to the SE. We get consistent 5ft to 7ft waves with clean cross-offshore winds from the NW. The energy is building nicely, hitting a strong 2330 by Sunday afternoon. This run looks very promising for a reef break that likes a bit of direction.

The standout, however, is shaping up to be Wednesday the 26th of August. The wind is due to be a clean offshore from the N at 16 mph, with a solid 7ft SW groundswell rolling in at a nice 14-second period. The energy is a strong 2008, and the forecast is calling for “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers”. This is the one to circle on the calendar. Get ready for a proper session.

After that, the wind goes mental again on Thursday the 27th with near-gale force offshore winds, making it a mission to even get out. So, overall, it’s a wait for the end of the run. The Friday the 21st session is a gamble, but the real prize is the last week of August.

Rusty.

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