Papa Tangaroa Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Tanga-Roa all morning. Let’s talk.

Alright, the next couple of weeks are a mixed bag, to be honest. The start is rough – strong, messy winds and big, lumpy swell that’s just not going to be any fun. Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th are write-offs with near gale-force winds and sloppy conditions on that solid 10ft to 12ft SW swell. That’s expert-only territory size-wise, even if the wind wasn’t howling, but it is, so it’s a hard pass.

We do get a small window of improvement around Tuesday the 7th. The swell eases to 8ft–8ft from the SW, still a big size for most, but the wind drops to a light breeze and goes cross. Combined energy is still pumping (2390 to 3671), but it’s a cross-shore wind with a bit of a chop, and the conditions are only marginal. Not a stand-out, but it’s the best of a bad bunch early on.

Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th drop away quickly as the swell fades, with onshore wind and rain.

The real highlight doesn’t show up until the second week. Listen, Tuesday the 14th looks like the pick of the whole forecast. Papa Tangaroa (Tanga-Roa) will have a clean 8ft swell from the SE with a cross-offshore breeze (ENE 9 mph). The period is short, 8 seconds, so it’s a windswell, not a groundswell, but the conditions will be clean and the combined energy is moderate at 1442. This is the one for experienced surfers – it’s too big for beginners at that size, but the clean conditions make it worthwhile. Crowds are rare here, so you might get some waves to yourself. Worth noting the water temp is 71°F, about 1° warmer than average, so it’s a touch toastier than normal for July.

Then on Wednesday the 15th, we get another solid day. A 10ft ESE swell with a more favourable 9-second period and a clean offshore wind from the NNE at 16 mph. Combined energy is strong (1855). Again, this is for advanced crew only – that’s a big wave size. The conditions will be clean, but it’s a serious paddle.

After that, the swell hangs around at 8ft to 10ft through to Friday the 17th, but the wind gets messy again with cross and cross-off directions, and the quality fades. By Saturday the 18th, the swell drops right off to tiny 3ft, and it’s not worth getting wet. The final days of the 20th show a weak, long-period 4ft SW groundswell (16 seconds) but with strong cross-off winds and the energy is only 1009 – not enough to get excited about.

So, to sum it up: the first week is mostly a write-off thanks to wind. The real chance is that two-day window – Tuesday 14th and Wednesday 15th – with clean conditions and decent sized swell for the experienced surfer. If you’re after a beginner-friendly wave, there’s nothing on offer in this entire 16-day outlook.

Stay patient, mates.

Rusty

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