
Surf Forecasts:
Papa Tangaroa surf forecast from 13 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 15 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 10s period, SSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 14 Sep, 7AM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 12s period, SW swell with 1,742 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 15 Sep, 4PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 10s period with SSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Papa Tangaroa this week:
The surf forecast for Papa Tangaroa over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 15) at 4PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.7m and 10s period with a secondary swell of 0.8m and 18s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Papa Tangaroa in the next 16 days are 2.5m 12s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 14) at 7AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.1m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 20) at 1AM.
| Wave Type | Time (-06) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 4PM (Tue 15th Sep) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 10s |
| Best Surf | 4PM (Tue 15th Sep) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 10s |
| Most Powerful | 7AM (Mon 14th Sep) | 8ft (2.5m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Papa Tangaroa over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, and I'm looking at this stretch of water for the next couple of weeks. We only got one break in the mix, a serious reef setup that ain't for the faint of heart.
Water temp is sittin' around 69°F, which is about what you'd expect for this time of year. No surprises there.
First thing's first: it's flat for the next few days. Nothin' doin'. The first real chance to paddle out don't come 'til Tuesday the 15th in the afternoon.
So, Tuesday afternoon the 15th, we finally got somethin'. Papa Tangaroa sees a clean 5.6ft swell from the SSW, with a light cross-offshore breeze from the ENE. That means clean lines and not much chop. The combined energy is moderate (1028), so it's got some push but won't be a monster. Good for someone who knows the reef.
Wednesday the 16th is where it gets real interesting. The morning brings a tiny 3ft swell, but listen to this – a 20-second period from the SW. That's proper long-period groundswell (1038 energy). With a light offshore breeze from the N, it'll be glassy. The afternoon gets even better: the swell bumps to 3.9ft from the SW at 19 seconds, and the wind goes glassy from the SE. The energy jumps up to 1408. On a reef like this, that long period means the waves will have shape and power, but you gotta be ready for the sets. Paddlin' out will be easier between the lulls.
Thursday the 17th is still ridable but the wind picks up from the WNW at 12-16 mph. The swell drops a bit to 4.3ft with a 16-18 second period, and it stays cross-offshore, so it'll be clean but a bit bumpier. Energy is still solid (1131-1376).
Friday the 18th sees a return to cleaner conditions. The morning has a 4.3ft SW swell at 15 seconds with a moderate offshore breeze from the NNW. The energy is 971. The afternoon the swell period stretches to 16 seconds and the energy jumps to 1213. Good run.
Now, for the standout. The absolute best is the afternoon of Wednesday the 16th. That 3.9ft swell at 19 seconds with glassy wind is the pick of the bunch. The swell direction from the SW is exactly what this reef wants, and the light conditions mean it'll be as clean as it gets. This is for experienced surfers only on a reef that can be hit or miss.
The end of the first week and into the second week gets ugly. Saturday the 19th is clean but the swell drops and the wind is a strong offshore at 19 mph, making it hard work. Sunday the 20th is blown out by a 28-31 mph offshore that you won't be able to paddle into. There's a four-day gap with no good options from the 20th through to the 23rd.
Monday the 21st brings a new pulse of swell, 5.9ft to 7.2ft from the WSW, but the wind is cross-offshore and moderate. It's ridable but not the quality of the mid-week window.
By Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd, the swell gets big. 9.8ft to 11.5ft from the W and WSW. This is expert territory only, and the wind is strong and cross, making it a messy, lumpy mess. The combined energy is massive (3466-3689). For most folks, this is a kite-surfing show, not a paddle session.
The outlook fades out towards the 27th, with a final flash on Sunday the 27th afternoon: an 8.2ft S swell at 10 seconds, with a gentle cross-offshore breeze from the NW and clean conditions (2387 energy). That's a good note to end on, but it's a long way out.
So, the clear winner is the afternoon of Wednesday the 16th. Get it while it's good, 'cause the second week is a write-off for clean, manageable waves.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 18°C on Sat afternoon, min 17°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 20°C on Fri morning, min 17°C on Tue afternoon). Wind will be generally light. | |||||||||||||||||||
Sat 12 | Sunday 13 | Monday 14 | Tuesday 15 | Wednesday 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SSW 10 | SSW 10 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
2061 | 1285 | 1037 | 1365 | 1576 | 1499 | 1193 | 966 | 743 | 649 | 462 | 700 | 1070 | 942 | 1087 | 865 | 803 | 705 | 897 | 714 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-on | cross-off | on | on | on | on | on | cross | cross | cross-off | cross-off | off | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | off | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:18PM0.59m | 9:58AM0.55m | 10:46PM0.64m | 11:22AM0.55m | 11:48PM0.69m | 12:20PM0.57m | 00:36AM0.74m | 1:04PM0.58m | 1:14AM0.78m | 1:39PM0.59m | 1:47AM0.80m | 2:08PM0.59m | 2:16AM0.80m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:49AM0.29m | 4:08PM0.27m | 5:23AM0.26m | 5:16PM0.25m | 6:25AM0.21m | 6:06PM0.22m | 7:11AM0.17m | 6:47PM0.19m | 7:48AM0.15m | 7:20PM0.18m | 8:20AM0.14m | 7:49PM0.17m | ||||||||
— | — | 8:17 | — | — | 8:15 | — | — | 8:15 | — | — | 8:14 | — | — | 8:12 | — | — | 8:11 | — | — | |
8:08 | — | — | 8:08 | — | — | 8:09 | — | — | 8:09 | — | — | 8:09 | — | — | 8:10 | — | — | 8:10 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
Feels °C | 17 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SW 14 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 13 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 12 | SW 11 | SW 11 | SSW 10 | SSW 10 | SSW 10 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 16 | SW 16 | SW 15 | SW 16 | SW 15 |
2061 | 1285 | 1037 | 1365 | 1576 | 1499 | 1193 | 966 | 743 | 649 | 462 | 338 | 1070 | 942 | 1087 | 865 | 803 | 705 | 897 | 714 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 7 | NE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | SW 20 | SW 19 | SW 18 | SW 18 | SW 20 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | SW 11 | SW 10 | WSW 9 | WSW 9 | S 10 | WSW 9 |
25 | 24 | 35 | 51 | 58 | 45 | 44 | 373 | 287 | 379 | 249 | 700 | 302 | 209 | 254 | 200 | 113 | 248 | 17 | 140 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNW 12 | NNW 12 | NNW 12 | NNW 12 | SW 23 | SW 21 | SW 21 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | S 12 | S 10 | S 10 | ENE 7 | S 10 |
60 | 48 | 47 | 46 | 185 | 285 | 355 | 54 | 50 | 41 | 29 | 28 | 36 | 37 | 35 | 66 | 33 | 18 | 9 | 17 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 3 | NW 5 | NW 5 | W 9 | NW 5 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 76 | 38 | 299 | 49 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3525 | 2 | 0 | 3525 | 4 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Easter Island | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Chile | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Papa Tangaroa Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Papa Tangaroa provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Papa Tangaroa can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Papa Tangaroa surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Papa Tangaroa) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Papa Tangaroa may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
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