Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Deadman's over the next couple of weeks. Straight up, this isn't a window for big hero missions. We're looking at a long, drawn-out run of small, inconsistent, and often messy surf, with just a few rare windows where things line up for a decent session.

The pattern is pretty clear: we kick off with a pulse of moderate energy (989 to 1038) that’s already dropping away, and then we’re in for a long stretch of tiny, fading swell with a lot of cross-shore or onshore wind messing things up. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is about average for this time of year.

For the first few days, from August 29th through September 1st, the swell sticks around 4ft down to 3ft. It’s a long-period groundswell (14 to 18 seconds) from the SSW, which is a great direction for Deadman's reef, giving it some shape. But the wind is all over the place—mainly cross or cross-off from the NW and NNW. Saturday afternoon on the 29th cleans up nicely with a cross-off breeze and a moderate 19 mph wind, and the energy is moderate (1038). That’s the best bet for the short term, offering a clean 4ft wave. After that, it’s a slow slide into smaller, choppier conditions.

We hit a serious lull from the afternoon of September 1st right through until the morning of the 3rd. The swell drops to ankle-snappers (2ft to 3ft) and the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore. The combined energy plummets to just 268 to 422, so you’re fighting for scraps. Not worth paddling out.

Now, Thursday morning September 3rd is where we get our first real standout. The morning comes in glassy with a light air, and the swell bumps up to 3ft SW groundswell at a proper 19 seconds. The combined energy ramps up to a solid 1027, and the text says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." This is the kind of clean, lined-up reef wave that Deadman's is known for when it’s small. But be warned, this spot is *inconsistent*, so this window is a rare gem. After that, the wind turns on in the afternoon and it gets messy again.

The rest of the first week and into the second is more of the same: small to tiny swell, mostly cross-shore winds, and combined energy bouncing between 258 and 1418. Nothing really lights up until we get to Tuesday September 8th afternoon. We get a glassy, calm session with a tiny 2ft SSE swell, but the energy (683) and the text say "expect very good surf conditions." It’s small, but it will be dead clean.

The next clear opportunity is on Wednesday September 9th. The swell is the biggest we’ve seen at 5ft from the NW, but it’s only 12 seconds. The morning is a bit bumpy, but the afternoon turns glassy again. The combined energy is moderate (968), and the text says "expect very good surf conditions." That afternoon is your second standout for the whole outlook.

Into the second week, things stay small but we get some beautiful glassy windows around the 10th and 11th of September with clean 3ft SSW groundswell. The energy is moderate (823 to 883), and it will be a fun, uncrowded reef session if you’re keen on a log or a fish. The 11th afternoon is especially clean with glassy conditions.

After that, it fades away again to tiny 2ft to 2ft surf by September 13th. The glassy conditions on the 13th morning are nice, but the swell is barely there.

So to wrap it up: the two best windows are Thursday morning September 3rd for a clean 3ft SW groundswell, and Wednesday afternoon September 9th for a clean 5ft NW swell. Everything else is small and requires patience and low expectations. The reef is protected from a lot of wind, but with the swell this inconsistent, don’t expect a wave count. For the size, it's not too big for beginners on the 3rd, but the 9th’s 5ft might be pushing it for learners. The 9th is fine for intermediates.

Rusty.

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