Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and let’s get stuck into what’s in store for our local stretch of coast. The only break on the radar is Deadman’s, a reef setup that’s known to be inconsistent and can draw a crowd at times. The water temperature is sitting about average for the time of year, nothing too wild there.

Overall, the forecast is a mixed bag with a heap of marginal surf and a few glimmers of something decent. There’s a noticeable gap at the start with no real standouts, so we’re looking at Saturday the 11th of July with a small 3-foot swell from the SSW, period 14 seconds, and combined energy in the moderate range (453). The wind is a cross-shore from the NW at 9 mph, so it’s a bit choppy and not worth paddling out for.

Sunday the 12th sees a bump in size to around 5 feet on the morning, but it’s coming from the NW with a short 10-second period, and the cross-shore wind picks up to 12 mph, making things messy. The afternoon pushes to 6 feet but period drops to 7 seconds, so it’s junky, and the wind is cross at 16 mph. Not one to get excited about.

Monday the 13th is more of the same: 4 to 5 feet, short period, and cross-shore winds. The Monday afternoon has a lighter breeze at 6 mph, but it’s still cross-shore and the waves are average.

Now, Tuesday the 14th is where things start to look interesting. The morning is still marginal with 4 feet, but the afternoon is a standout—5 feet from the NW, short period at 7 seconds, but the wind goes glassy (3 mph from the WNW), and the combined energy is moderate (526). This is a real chance for clean, fun waves if you can get out there. The reef should handle the short period fine, and the glassy conditions will make it smooth.

Wednesday the 15th is a step up in size but the wind is cross-shore at 12-16 mph, so it’s a bit of a battle. The afternoon pushes 7 feet from the NW with a 7-second period, but the cross-off wind keeps it clean. Still, it’s marginal.

Thursday the 16th is the biggest swell of the run—morning sees 8 feet from the NW, period 9 seconds, and combined energy is strong (1871). That’s serious wave energy, but the cross-shore wind at 12 mph and the size means it’s only for experienced surfers. The reef will be handling a lot of water.

Friday the 17th offers a bit of relief with 5 feet, but the wind is cross-on in the morning and cross-shore in the afternoon. The light breeze keeps it manageable, but it’s not a highlight.

The real standout for the whole outlook is Tuesday the 25th of July. That’s over a week away, but it’s worth marking. The morning has 5 feet from the NW, period 7 seconds, with a light NW cross-shore at 6 mph. Then the afternoon is something special: 6 feet from the NW, short period, but glassy conditions with a SW wind at 3 mph. Combined energy is moderate (540), and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the best on offer—clean, head-high waves on the reef, and crowds might be a factor given the quality.

The rest of the forecast is a lot of average to poor surf, with a long gap of marginal days after the 25th. There’s a bit of a lull in the second week, with small swells and cross-shore winds. The Thursday the 24th of July has a clean afternoon with 5 feet from the NW, but it’s short period and the wind is cross-off, so it’s tidy but not a standout.

So, to sum it up: the best on offer is Tuesday the 14th of July afternoon for a quick glassy session, and then Tuesday the 25th of July afternoon for the best combo of size and clean conditions. The rest is mostly for the dedicated or the kites, as the reef setup and cross-shore winds will have the kite crowd grinning on the bigger days.

Rusty.

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