Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a cuppa mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’.

It’s a pretty quiet start to the 16-day window, to be honest. There’s a bit of energy in the water but the conditions are just not cooperating for a proper surf. The first week or so is mostly a write-off with poor to marginal surf, so we’re looking at a gap of about 12 days before anything really starts to look like it’s worth paddling out for.

The only spot on the cards is Deadman’s, a reef break that’s inconsistent and can get a bit of a crowd. The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so no major surprises there.

The first couple of days, Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd, are just messy. On Wednesday morning, we’ve got a 2ft SW swell but with a 12 mph SSE cross-onshore wind, it’s choppy and ugly. The energy is moderate (438), but it’s not surfable. Afternoon gets worse with a 3ft WNW windswell and a short period of 8 seconds, and the wind picks up to 16 mph. Thursday morning has a bit more size with a 3ft SW groundswell (19 second period) and a big jump in energy (1128), but the wind is still cross-onshore and it’s described as marginal. Thursday afternoon sees a 6ft WNW swell, but the period drops to 10 seconds and the wind is light cross-onshore, so it’s not clean.

Friday the 4th is the best of a bad bunch in the early window. Morning has a 3ft SSW swell with a 1.2m (1236) energy reading and a 6 mph SW offshore wind. That’s the first time we see clean conditions, but it’s still only rated as marginal. The period is long at 18 seconds, which is a classic groundswell, but for a reef break like Deadman’s, that long period should actually produce some nice lines. The afternoon turns cross-onshore, so the morning is the only window.

Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th are similar – 3ft to 4ft SSW swells, light winds, but the wind direction is cross-onshore, so it’s never really clean. The energy drops through the 900s and 600s, and the scores are low.

From Monday the 7th all the way through to Thursday the 11th, we’re in a trough of small, weak swells (2ft to 3ft) with moderate energy readings (500-800 range). The wind is mostly light cross or cross-on, and it’s all marginal. Friday the 11th afternoon has a 3ft SW swell with a 19 mph NNW cross-offshore wind, which is clean, but that’s a strong breeze and the swell is small.

Now, the real standout is the window around Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th of September. This is the one to circle.

Monday the 14th starts with a glassy morning – 3ft NW swell with 3 mph SW winds, dead calm. The energy is moderate (411). Then the afternoon is where it’s at: a 5ft NW swell with a 12-second period, completely glassy with 0 mph wind, and a combined energy of 914. The forecast says “very good surf conditions,” and for a reef break, that’s a winner. The swell direction is NW, which is not the optimum SW direction, but with glassy conditions, the shape will be forgiving and the waves will be clean.

Tuesday the 15th keeps the good form. Morning has a 5ft NW swell with a 3 mph SW offshore wind, but the period is short at 8 seconds, so it might be a bit soft. But the afternoon is a beauty: 7ft NW swell, glassy with 3 mph WSW winds, and a 635 energy reading. That’s overhead on sets, and with no wind, it’ll be a dream for anyone who can handle it. For the crew, 7ft is solid but not huge, so intermediate surfers can have a go if they’re confident.

After that, Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th still have some size (5ft to 7ft NW swells) but with light cross-onshore winds, it won’t be as perfect as the Monday and Tuesday.

So, the best on offer is definitely the afternoon of Monday the 14th and the afternoon of Tuesday the 15th. Deadman’s is inconsistent, so to get two days of glassy, quality groundswell is a rare treat. The crowds will be there as it’s a known spot, but with the quality on offer, it’s worth competing for a wave.

Rusty.

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