Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and look at what’s on offer. It’s a pretty quiet picture for the next couple of weeks, with only one spot on the radar.

We’ve got Deadman’s, a reef setup that’s known for being inconsistent, so it’s not a surprise that we’re looking at a long stretch of so-so conditions. The water temperature is sitting at 59°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – nothing crazy, but a nice little bonus.

The outlook kicks off on Friday the 24th of July, but don’t get your hopes up. The swell is a small 3 ft from the SSW with a very long 24-second period. That’s a lot of energy in the water (combined energy of 1337), but the wind is a cross-onshore from the WNW at 15 km/h, making it choppy. It’s a marginal call.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are much the same story. Swell hangs around 4 ft to 4 ft from the SSW/SW, with that long period still in the mix. The wind stays cross-onshore, and the flat descriptions like “gentle cross-onshore and fairly choppy” tell you everything. Not worth rushing out.

Monday the 27th through Wednesday the 29th sees the swell hold steady at 4 ft to 5 ft from the SSW. The wind is mostly cross-shore or cross-off, with a nasty cross-chop. The one potential bright spot is Tuesday afternoon the 28th, when the wind goes cross-off from the NW at 30 km/h, and it’s described as “clean.” The swell is 5 ft from the SSW at 18 seconds – still good energy. If you’re desperate, that’s the best of a bad bunch early on.

Then we hit a weird blip on Thursday the 30th of July. The morning sees a 6 ft swell from the NW, but with a short 8-second period. That’s a sloppy, weak windswell. The combined energy is still high at 1188, but it’s a messy, cross-shore wind. The afternoon settles back to a smaller 4 ft SSW swell. This is a no-go.

Friday the 31st of July through to Saturday the 1st of August is a proper lull. Swell drops to 3 ft to 3 ft, periods are all over the place, and the winds are either cross or cross-off. Saturday afternoon the 1st sees a jump to 7 ft from the NW with a 7-second period and a cross-off wind, but that’s a short-period windswell that’s too big for the inconsistent reef and the quality is poor.

Sunday the 2nd and Monday the 3rd of August brings a bit more size. Swells are 6 ft to 10 ft from the NW, but the periods are short (8 to 10 seconds). The energy starts to spike big time on Monday afternoon – we’re talking 2402 combined energy from a 10 ft, 10-second NW swell. The wind is cross-off and clean. This is the one standout for the whole period. The swell is big, over 8 ft, so this is for experts only. The short period means it’ll be a bit lumpy, but the clean cross-off wind at Deadman’s could make for some heavy, hollow reef waves. It’s a long way out, so take it with a grain of salt, but it’s the only real pulse on the charts.

After that, the rest of the run from Tuesday the 4th to Thursday the 6th of August is a mix of 6 ft to 7 ft NW swells with short periods and moderate to fresh cross-shore winds. Not great.

Finally, we get a little glimmer of hope on Thursday the 6th of August afternoon. Swell is 6 ft from the NW at 10 seconds, and the wind goes glassy from the south at 5 km/h. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s clean, it’s a decent size, and it’s the second-best window. The 5 ft to 5 ft swell on Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th with light offshore winds could also be fun, but the energy is dropping.

So, if you’re an expert, circle Monday the 3rd of August. The rest of the run is mostly a write-off with a few clean, small windows. The setup is a reef, so it won’t be a total washout, but for most of us, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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