Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a good look at what’s coming up at Deadman's.

First off, the water temp is sitting at 58°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year. No weird anomalies there.

The outlook starts on Tuesday, September 8th. Honestly, it’s a bit of a slow start. Tuesday morning you’ve got a small 3ft S swell with a moderate 13-second period, but the wind is cross-on, so it’s a bit messy. The combined energy is moderate (445). Not worth jumping for. Tuesday afternoon cleans up a little with a cross wind, but it's still small.

Wednesday morning is similar, but hold on – Wednesday afternoon, September 9th, is where it gets interesting. The wind drops to glassy, and we get a 2ft SW groundswell with a very long 19-second period. The combined energy jumps up to 586 (moderate). The guidance says “expect very good surf conditions.” For a reef setup like Deadman's, that long period will really shape up nicely. The sets will be clean, lined up, and there will be plenty of time between them to paddle back out. This is a standout window.

Thursday, September 10th, also looks good. The morning is a bit cross, but the afternoon has glassy conditions again with a 3ft SW swell, 17-second period, and strong combined energy (862). That’s another real winner for the reef.

Friday, September 11th, starts to go downhill. The morning has a moderate cross breeze, and by the afternoon it’s a moderate cross-shore with a chop and poor conditions. The swell is still 3ft but the wind kills it.

The weekend through the first half of the following week is a bit of a write-off. Saturday, the 12th, and Sunday, the 13th, have poor conditions and messy wind. The swell on Sunday afternoon even shifts to a short-period 5ft NW swell, which won’t have the same juice for the reef.

Monday, September 14th, sees the swell push up to 5ft, but it’s short-period (8 seconds) and the wind is fresh and cross-shore. The combined energy is moderate (769) but the quality is poor. This is more of a messy, lumpy situation. For a beach break it might be okay for kites, but for paddling, it’s ugly.

The 15th and 16th are similar – small, short-period, poor wind. The 16th afternoon has a clean cross-offshore wind, but the swell is a paltry 4ft from the NW at 7 seconds. Not much to work with.

Now, we get a bit of a reprieve later in the window. On Thursday, September 17th, the afternoon sees a 2ft SSW swell with a 16-second period, light cross-on wind, and moderate energy (547). It’s marginal but could be a sneaky clean session.

The real hidden gem here is the 18th and 19th. Friday, September 18th afternoon: glassy, 2ft SW swell, 19-second period, moderate energy (520). Saturday, September 19th afternoon: glassy again, 3ft SW swell, 18-second period, moderate energy (669). Both are rated for “very good surf conditions.” For a reef break, those long-period groundswells and glassy wind are a dream. The crowd factor is listed as “often,” so don’t expect to have it to yourself, but the quality will be worth it.

The last couple of days (20th to 23rd) have a few more marginal sessions, but the 22nd afternoon shows a 5ft NW swell with a 13-second period and very strong combined energy (1298). The wind is light cross-shore, but the swell direction is NW, which isn’t ideal for Deadman's (it prefers SW). So it’s a big, powerful swell but might not hold its shape as well here.

So, the best windows are Wednesday afternoon (Sept 9th), Thursday afternoon (Sept 10th), and then a second standout run on Friday afternoon (Sept 18th) and Saturday afternoon (Sept 19th). Get those dates in your head.

Rusty.

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