Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s heading for Deadman’s.

Over the next 16 days, it starts slow, but if you’re patient, there’s a couple of real clean windows worth paddling out for.

From Friday the 17th through Saturday the 19th, we’ve got a long-period groundswell from the WNW, with swell heights around 3ft to 4ft. The energy is moderate, sitting around 780 to 836 (combined energy). The early wind is cross-shore, so the surface is a bit choppy. But Saturday afternoon, the wind goes glassy, and the swell shifts to a clean SW direction with a period of 18 seconds and energy of 836. That’s the standout of the first week. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing crazy.

Sunday the 19th also has a glassy afternoon, with a clean 3ft SW swell, 17-second period, and energy of 831. The morning has a short-period 4ft NW windswell (8 seconds) that’s a bit messy.

Monday the 20th, we get another glassy afternoon, 3ft SW swell, 16-second period, energy 786. Tuesday the 21st starts with a dead calm morning, no wind, 3ft S swell, 13-second period, energy 665. That’s a sneaky good session if you can get out there.

After that, the consistency drops. From Wednesday the 22nd through Friday the 24th, the surf is smaller and the wind is cross-onshore on and off, with only marginal conditions. The exception is Friday afternoon the 24th, where a very long-period 24-second SSW swell rolls in at 3ft, but the energy jumps to 1016. The wind is cross-onshore, so it’s lumpy, but the swell period is massive.

The second week gets bigger but less certain. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th see bigger SSW swell, around 4ft to 4ft, with periods of 20 to 21 seconds and energy climbing to 2188. That’s strong energy for this spot. The wind is cross-shore, so it’s not clean, but there’s plenty of power. Being a reef, those long-period SW swells should wrap in nicely, but the spot is inconsistent, so don’t expect a non-stop show.

The real standout of the entire forecast comes on Tuesday the 28th of July, in the afternoon. We’ve got a 5ft SSW swell, 18-second period, energy 1445, and the wind is cross-offshore from the NNW. That’s clean. That’s the one to mark on the calendar. Water temp is still average for the season.

After that, things drop off. Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th are smaller, windier, and more marginal. Friday the 31st sees a 6ft to 6ft NW windswell, but the period is short at 9 seconds, and the wind is strong. The energy is still moderate, but it’s a messy, choppy affair. For a reef, that short-period stuff won’t shape up well, and the size is getting into expert-only territory.

Saturday the 1st of August closes out the period with a 7ft NW windswell, 9-second period, still cross-shore wind. Energy is moderate at 798, but again, it’s a short-period, lumpy mess. That’s more of a kite-surfing day than a proper paddle session.

So, bottom line: the best on offer is Tuesday afternoon the 28th of July at Deadman’s, with clean cross-offshore wind and a solid SSW groundswell. Saturday afternoon the 19th and Tuesday morning the 21st are also very good. The rest is a mixed bag of marginal conditions and short-period windswell. Keep an eye on the glassy windows, they’re your ticket.

Rusty.

Read more