Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break it down.

We’ve got a long stretch ahead, but the first week and a half is pretty grim. The wave energy is moderate, but the winds are messy, and the surf quality just isn’t there. It’s not until the end of the month that we start to see something worth paddling out for.

The water’s sitting at 59° at Deadman's, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Friday 24 July kicks off with a small 2ft SSW swell (578 combined energy), but it’s cross-onshore and choppy. Not worth it. That continues through the weekend – Saturday 25 July sees a little more size, 4ft from the SSW, still cross-onshore with light wind ripples. Sunday 26 July is similar, 4ft SW, but the wind picks up and it gets lumpy. The whole week stays marginal – moderate cross-shore winds, moderate energy (around 1000-1400 combined), and the swell period is long, around 18-24 seconds, which is a groundswell. That long period will make Deadman's (a reef) work better than a beach, but the wind is never clean enough.

Thursday 30 July afternoon is the first real glimmer. The swell drops to 3ft from the SSW, period still a solid 16 seconds, and the wind goes glassy – dead calm. That’s clean, smooth, and the combined energy is 705 – still moderate, but the glassy conditions will make it feel way better. This is the standout of the first week. It’s not big, but it’ll be fun, and because the break is inconsistent and crowds are often around, you might have it to yourself.

Then a lull – Friday 31 July morning is tiny and cross-shore, and the afternoon swings to a 6ft NW swell with a tiny 6 second period – that’s windswell, short and choppy. Not good.

Saturday 1 August and Sunday 2 August see the NW swell build: 6ft to 8ft, period around 8-9 seconds. That’s moderate to strong energy (822-1373 combined). But the wind is cross-shore or cross-off, and the period is short, so the waves will be lumpy and lack shape. At 8ft, this is expert-only, and it’s not even clean. Skip it.

The real standout comes late. Thursday 6 August afternoon – 6ft from the NW, 10 second period, and glassy again. The combined energy is 634 (moderate), but that calm wind will make Deadman's look like a mirror. This is the best option of the whole 16 days. It’s clean, it’s got push, and the reef will handle that period well. It’s a long-range call, so it could change, but if it holds, that’s the session.

After that, Friday 7 August and Saturday 8 August drop off into poor surf with low energy and cross-shore winds. The window closes flat.

So the two true standouts are Thursday 30 July afternoon (small, glassy, clean) and Thursday 6 August afternoon (bigger, glassy, clean). Everything else is wind-affected or messy. Get on those if the forecast holds.

Rusty.

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