Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what's coming our way. We've got a mixed bag on the horizon, but there are a few sessions worth circling on the calendar.

The overall pattern shows a slow start with a lot of marginal, choppy conditions before things clean up nicely in the second week. The first few days are dominated by a moderate cross-shore wind that'll put a bit of a chop on things, making for messy waves. The swell energy is moderate, with values mostly in the hundreds, around 964 to 1063 initially, so nothing too punchy.

Let’s start where we can. Deadman's is our only spot on the menu. It’s a reef break that can be a bit inconsistent. The water temp is 54°F, which is a touch cooler than average for this time of year—nothing too wild, just a degree or so off.

Kicking off on Wednesday morning, July 8th, we have some clouds and a 12 mph cross-shore WNW wind with a 3 ft SSW swell at a long 18 seconds. The energy is moderate (964), but that wind is going to mess it up. The afternoon is similar with a 4 ft swell at 17 seconds, but still cross and a bit rough. Thursday and Friday follow the same script: 4 ft and 3 ft SSW swells, long periods of 16-15 seconds, but that NW wind keeps it cross and average. The real bummer is the wind, not the swell. The long-period groundswell has potential for good shape at a reef like Deadman's, but that power won't be cleaned up.

We hit a real lull over the weekend of July 11-12. Saturday is a write-off with poor conditions and a drop in swell. Sunday sees a shift in swell direction to the NW, with heights of 5 ft to 6 ft, but the period tanks to 10 seconds or even 6 seconds in the afternoon. Short-period windswell with strong winds just equals messy white water. Not worth paddling out.

The start of the next week (July 13-15) stays pretty poor. The swell stays in the NW, but the period is short (7-8 seconds) and the cross-shore wind won't let up. The combined energy is moderate, but the quality is just not there. A few sessions on July 14 have a clean cross-off wind, but the short-period 5 ft NW swell will be all bumps and closeouts at a reef. On July 15, a small 2 ft SW groundswell arrives with a long 18-second period, but the 16 mph NW wind will tear it apart in the morning. The afternoon has a tiny 1 ft WNW swell with a very long 21-second period, but it's too small and the fresh breeze is still howling.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. We get a few days of decent surf starting on Thursday, July 16th. The swell builds to 5 ft from the NW (moderate 801 energy), and while the period is only 8 seconds in the morning, the afternoon pushes up to 7 ft with 8 seconds and 1118 energy. It's still cross-shore and a bit messy, but there's some push.

But the true standout, the session you want to be out for, is Friday afternoon, July 17th. This is the best on offer. We get a 7 ft NW swell with a 9-second period and a combined energy of 1145—that's a solid, powerful wave. The wind dies to 3 mph from the WNW and goes glassy. This is the cleanest it'll get. For a reef break like Deadman's, that long-period groundswell with glassy conditions is the dream. Just a heads up, 7 ft at a steep reef is expert territory. The crowds here are often there, so expect some company for this one.

Saturday, July 18th is still very good, just smaller. Morning sees a 3 ft WNW groundswell with a long 16-second period and glassy conditions. The afternoon drops a bit but still has a 3 ft SW groundswell at 18 seconds, also glassy. Both sessions are clean and fun on a longboard or a fish, with moderate energy (over 1000).

After that, the quality fades a bit. July 19-20 has some cross-shore wind returning with 5-6 ft NNW swells, but it's back to being average. Then, for the tail end of the outlook (July 21-23), we see another pattern of SSW groundswells with long periods (15-16 seconds). The afternoons of July 21 and 22 look promising with glassy conditions on 3 ft of south swell. The morning of July 23 is cross-shore, but the afternoon again goes glassy.

So if you're picking your battles, Friday afternoon the 17th is the big winner—big, clean, and powerful. Saturday the 18th is the smaller, cleaner follow-up. The glassy south swells in the final week (July 21-23) are a solid bet for a clean, small-wave session.

Stay safe, keep an eye on the wind, and I'll see you in the line-up.

Rusty

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