Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down in feet and miles.

The surf outlook here is a bit of a slow burner. Don't get too excited for the first few days, but there are a couple of windows that might get the heart rate up.

Right now, we're looking at a lot of so-so conditions to start. For the first few days, the swell is hanging around 4 to 6 feet from the NW, but it's consistently a short 7 to 8 second period. That makes for a pretty weak, messy wave. The combined swell energy is moderate at best, sitting around 385 to 644 units. The wind isn't helping much either, mostly a cross-shore breeze that leaves a little chop on the water. Thursday the 2nd and Friday the 3rd afternoon aren't terrible—clean enough on Friday afternoon—but it’s nothing to write home about.

Then we hit Saturday the 4th afternoon. That’s when things get interesting. The swell bumps up just a touch to 5 feet from the NW, still with that 8-second period, but the kicker is the wind goes *glass* dead flat, which means Deadman’s is going to be looking clean as a whistle. The water temp is sitting at 53°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so bring a thicker wetsuit. The energy is still moderate around 557, but with that glassy surface, it’s going to be a fun session for anyone who doesn’t mind the cold.

Sunday the 5th is a mixed bag. The morning has a bit of cross-onshore wind that messes with the surface, but the real story is Sunday afternoon. An 18-second period swell from the SSW sneaks in, but it’s only 3 feet. With that kind of period at a reef, it might just be a long-wait, clean little slide if the tide lines up. The energy actually jumps to 773 because of that long period, but don’t expect much size.

Things go quiet again from Monday the 6th through Wednesday the 8th. Lots of small SSW swell with some longer periods, but the waves are tiny—2 feet to 3 feet. The energy numbers hang around 600 to 900, but with those miniature heights, it’s a lot of motion in the ocean going nowhere.

Now, I want to flag the 9th and 10th of July. Thursday the 9th afternoon, we get a jump to 7 feet from the NW, with a short 9-second period. The wind is cross-offshore and clean. That's solid, punchy reef wave territory, but that short period will make it a bit lumpy. Then Friday the 10th morning rolls in with 8 feet from the NW. That’s expert territory right there. Big, powerful, and with a moderate cross-shore wind, it’s going to be a beast. The energy is 1885—that’s strong. If you're good, that's the standout session of the whole window, but don't take a beginner out there.

After that peak, the swell slowly fades through the second week. The weekend of the 11th and 12th holds 5 to 5 feet from the NW, still short period, with clean wind on the afternoons. Solid, but not epic.

Then there’s a gap from Monday the 13th to Tuesday the 14th where conditions look poor. Swell drops to 2 to 2 feet with long period on Tuesday. Not worth paddling out.

But hang on—Wednesday the 15th afternoon looks special. Glassy calm, 5 feet from the NW, short 6-second period. The energy is 608. That’s going to be a clean, fun, playful afternoon. And the 16th and 17th keep that glassy trend going with small 3-foot groundswell from the WNW at a long 16 to 17 second period. The energy is solid for the size, around 598 to 712, but with that kind of period on a reef break, it’s going to be a very clean, very organized, but smaller wave. Makes for a lovely, cruisy end to the outlook if you just want to get wet on a smooth ocean.

So if I had to pick: Saturday afternoon the 4th is the best of the first week for clean, glassy fun. But the true standout for size and power is Friday morning the 10th. That 8-foot NW swell at Deadman’s is for the well-experienced only.

Oh, and a quick note: Deadman’s is a reef break, and it’s inconsistent. It doesn’t fire every day. Also, the crowd situation here is “often,” so don’t expect to have it to yourself, especially when it’s good.

Rusty

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