Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this 16-day window for Deadman’s is a bit of a mixed bag, and it’s not exactly firing on all cylinders. The break is a reef, so it needs the right combo, and we’re mostly looking at marginal surf with a few fleeting moments of clean, glassy conditions. The water temp is sitting at 56°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real chance to wet a line comes Friday morning, July 17th. We’ve got a small 3ft swell rolling in from the WNW with a solid 17-second period – that’s proper groundswell with plenty of energy (818). The wind is cross from the NW at 12 mph, which isn’t ideal, but it’s not terrible. The tide might be a factor, so keep an eye on that. The afternoon cleans up a touch with lighter wind, but the swell stays small.

Saturday the 18th is more of the same: 3ft from the WNW again, but the wind is cross-on, so expect a bit of chop. The afternoon sees the swell shift to the SW with a decent 18-second period (831), but it’s still a struggle for quality.

Now, Sunday the 19th – interesting. The morning is a bit lumpy with a short-period 4ft NW swell (8 seconds) and cross-on wind. But Sunday afternoon? That’s a standout. The wind drops to glassy, and the swell picks up to 3ft from the SW with a long 17-second period (860). The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions,” and for a reef that’s inconsistent, this is a rare window. It’ll be clean, but with that long period, it might be a bit straight at the take-off zone. Crowds are often, so you won’t have it to yourself.

Monday the 20th is back to marginal, with a small 2ft SW swell and cross-on winds. Tuesday the 21st offers another glassy morning with 4ft from the S (13-second period, 707), but it’s a rain shower setup. The afternoon gets choppy as the wind swings onshore.

Wednesday the 22nd is a big one, but for the wrong reasons. The swell jumps to 7ft from the S with a short 10-second period (1247 – that’s moderate energy). The wind is cross-on and strong at 12 mph, making it choppy and messy. That’s expert territory, and frankly, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The afternoon drops to 5ft but stays choppy.

Thursday the 23rd is a write-off: poor surf conditions with 3ft.

Jumping ahead to the second week, there’s some promise but less certainty. Friday the 24th has a 2ft morning swell, but the afternoon cranks up with a 3ft SW swell and a massive 24-second period (1197). That’s very long-period groundswell, but it’s cross-on. Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th both have 4-4ft SW swells with long periods (21 seconds) and strong cross winds. The energy is high (over 1600), but the wind is a problem.

The real standout in the second week is Thursday, July 30th. The morning has 8ft from the NW with a short 8-second period (1641) and cross-wind – that’s big and messy. But Thursday afternoon is a gem: the swell drops to 7ft from the NW, the wind goes cross-off, and the forecast says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s a clean, powerful setup for the reef. The period is short though, so it’ll be a bit walled. For experts only.

The rest of the last days (31st July to 1st August) are all marginal, with small 4-5ft NW swells and cross winds.

To wrap it up: the best on offer is Sunday afternoon, July 19th, for the glassy, clean conditions. And if you’re an experienced surfer, the Thursday afternoon, July 30th, session is one to mark on the calendar – but it’s a long way off and the forecast might shift. The reef is inconsistent, so these windows are precious.

Rusty.

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