Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here.

Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – there’s only one break on the cards for the whole 16-day window, Deadman's, and it’s a tricky one. This is an exposed reef that’s inconsistent, so it doesn’t take much to shut it down. The good news is we’ve got a run of small but rideable swell starting today, Monday the 7th, but for the next several days, it’s mostly a marginal affair with cross-shore winds messing with the shape. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is about average for this time of year, so no wetsuit dramas.

The first real highlight, and the standout of the whole period, lands on Thursday afternoon the 10th. We’ve got a 3ft SSW swell, glassy conditions – pure clean glass – and combined wave energy of 941 (moderate). That’s the best you’ll see for a while. The swell direction is SSW, which is off the optimum SW for Deadman's, but the glass makes everything better. Crowds are likely here, so expect company.

Beyond that, we hit a long, flat gap. From Friday the 11th right through to Saturday the 19th, the swell drops off significantly, with wave heights barely scraping 2ft and combined energy values falling into the low to mid hundreds (weak). The winds get messy again, mostly cross or cross-onshore, and the commentary says "poor surf conditions" for many of those sessions. Don’t bother paddling out.

The second week brings a glimmer. On Sunday the 20th, the swell picks up to 5ft in the morning, jumping to 8ft in the afternoon, both from the NW. This is a short-period swell (8 seconds), so it’ll be a bit jumbled and fat, but combined energy hits 788 in the morning and 1129 (strong) by afternoon. The wind is cross-off and clean. This is expert-only territory – over 8ft gets heavy – but if you’ve got the skills, there’s power.

Then Monday the 21st sees the biggest surf of the forecast: 5ft to 6ft NW swell, period 11 seconds, combined energy at 1039 and 1423 (strong to very strong). That’s proper groundswell, and it’ll be lining up with cross-shore winds. Tuesday the 22nd afternoon somehow goes glass again, with 5ft NW swell and 708 energy (moderate) – a clean if smaller follow-up. Crowds will be inevitable on any of these cleaner days.

So the short story: Thursday afternoon the 10th is your best bet for a fun, clean, small-wave session. The 20th and 21st are for the advanced crew only. The rest is a write-off.

Rusty.

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