Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a bit of a slow dance at Deadman’s this week. This spot is an exposed reef break, and it’s pretty inconsistent, so when it fires, you have to be on it. It takes a solid SW groundswell to get it going, and we’ve got a sweet long-period one rolling in.

The water is sitting at 58°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The best shot of the whole run is coming in on Thursday 10 September afternoon. The wind is glassy from the WNW at only 3 mph, and we’re looking at a clean 3 ft of swell from the southwest. The period is a meaty 17 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell with real push. The combined energy is moderate at 882, meaning there’s enough grunt to make the reef work. Expect very good surf. Just a heads up, the crowds are often here, so don’t expect to be alone.

Friday 11 September morning and afternoon are a step down. The wind swings NW at 9 mph and goes cross-shore, creating a bit of chop. The swell drops to 3 ft with a 16-second period in the morning and 15 seconds in the afternoon. It’s marginal at best, so I’d sleep in if I were you.

Saturday 12 September looks poor. The wind picks up, and by the afternoon, we’ve got a fresh cross-shore breeze of 19 mph. The swell gets chopped up and drops to 3 ft. Leave it. Sunday 13 September isn’t much better – the swell shifts to the NW with a much shorter 9-second period. The energy drops and the wind is up. Cross-shore chop is the name of the game.

Monday 14 September sees the swell push up to 6 ft from the NW, but it’s short-period windswell with only 8 seconds between waves. The wind is hammering at 19 mph in the afternoon. The setup at a beach-and-reef break like Deadman’s with this much wind and short-period junk will be more interesting for kite surfers than paddle surfers.

Tuesday 15 September shows a bump in energy – 7 ft from the NW in the morning, combined energy hitting 1011 (moderate/strong range). But again, it’s a short 8-second interval with cross-shore wind. That size is getting into expert territory at over 8 ft for the peak, but it’s still messy. Probably a session for the brave.

After that, we have a lull. Wednesday 16 September and Thursday 17 September are mostly small and cross-on. Thursday 17 September afternoon does perk up a little – the wind goes glassy from the SW at 3 mph, and we get a clean 2 ft of SSW groundswell at a beautiful 16-second period. The energy is 453. It’s small, but glassy and clean. A longboarder’s dream.

Friday 18 September afternoon is another real standout. The wind drops to glassy from the WSW, and we get 2 ft of SW swell at a massive 19-second period. The combined energy is strong at 602. Expect very good, clean surf. This is a true reward for the patient.

The following days through to the 25th see a steady diet of small SW groundswell, mostly between 2 ft and 3 ft, with periods ranging from 14 to 18 seconds. The wind is often light and glassy or light cross-shore, which will keep things clean. The combined energy stays moderate, mostly in the 500-700 range. The highlight of this run is Monday 21 September afternoon – the wind goes completely calm and glassy (0 mph from the WSW) and we get 3 ft of SW swell at 17 seconds. Expect very good surf.

Wednesday 23 September afternoon also deserves a mention – we get a pulse of NW windswell at 5 ft with a 10-second period and totally glassy conditions. It’s a different angle, but clean and fun.

Friday 25 September afternoon wraps things up nicely with small 3 ft SSW swell, a 14-second period, and glassy wind from the west. A very good way to end the 16-day window.

So, the pick of the litter? No contest: Thursday 10 September afternoon for the bigger, clean long-period groundswell. The backup is Friday 18 September afternoon for the longest period and glassy conditions. After that, keep an eye on Monday 21 and Tuesday 22 September for that classic glassy, small-but-perfect reef setup.

Remember, Deadman’s is inconsistent, but when these windows align, it’s worth the wait. Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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