Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a pretty average run of surf shaping up for Deadman's. There’s some energy in the water early on, but the wind and swell direction just aren't playing nice. The first few days are a bit of a write-off for quality waves, so be patient.

Monday the 14th is a bit of a no-go. We’re looking at a 5ft NW windswell with a short, weak 8-second period and a cross-breeze messing it up. The combined swell energy is moderate at best (474), but it’s just not clean. The afternoon bumps up to 6ft but with a 30 km/h cross-offshore wind, it’s going to be blown out. Skip it.

Tuesday the 15th is where things start to look a little better. The morning is still a bit cross-chop on a 5ft NW swell, but Tuesday afternoon is the first real standout. The swell holds at 6ft from the NW with an 8-second period, but the wind swings to a light 10 km/h cross-offshore from the NNW, cleaning it right up. The wave comment says "expect very good surf conditions," and I’d agree. That’s the best bet for the first week. The water temp is about average for the time of year at 59°.

Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th morning are marginal, with poor wind directions and choppy conditions. However, Thursday afternoon throws a curveball. The swell drops right off to just 2ft, but it’s a super-long period 16-second groundswell from the SSW. The wind goes glassy. It’ll be tiny and weak, but if you’ve got a log, that glassy surface on a reef setup like Deadman's could be a fun, clean session. Keep in mind, that spot can be inconsistent, so don’t get your hopes up for a big day.

From Friday the 18th right through to Monday the 21st morning, it’s a long stretch of small, weak swell (2ft to 3ft) from the SW with long periods (17-19 seconds). The energy is moderate, but the waves will be fat and slow. The wind is mostly light and cross or cross-on, so it’s not terrible, but it’s not pumping. Not worth rushing for.

Now, the second week gets interesting. Monday the 21st afternoon sees a jump back up to a 7ft NW windswell with a clean cross-offshore breeze. The energy is cranking up (977). Tuesday the 22nd is the absolute standout of the entire 16-day window. Tuesday afternoon delivers a 6ft NW swell with an 11-second period, and it’s glassy with an SSE breeze. The combined swell energy is strong (1117), and the wave comment says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." That is the session to circle on the calendar. The swell is pushing 6ft, which is getting up there for intermediates, but for the experienced crew, that’s a gem. The long period will make it a proper groundswell, and on this reef, it should hold up nicely. It’s a long-range call, but it’s looking solid.

The rest of the week from the 23rd onward tails off again into smaller, weaker swell, though we get a few more glassy windows on the 24th and 25th afternoon with a 4ft WNW groundswell. The very end of the forecast, around the 29th, shows a big jump in energy (1602) with a 8ft NW swell, but the wind is messy, and it’s too far out to get excited about yet. Keep an eye on it.

Overall, the best on offer is Tuesday afternoon the 22nd at Deadman's, with Tuesday afternoon the 15th as a solid runner-up. Crowds are likely at Deadman's, so get in early.

Rusty.

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