Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the menu for the next couple of weeks. We're only looking at one spot for this stretch, Deadman's, a reef break that's pretty exposed to the southwest swell. The water's sittin' at 55°, which is dead average for this time of year, so nothing weird goin' on there.

The period kicks off on Sunday the 19th with a bit of a tease. We've got a solid 3 ft SW groundswell rollin' in with a very long 17-second period, packin' a moderate 800 units of energy. The wind is a light cross-shore, but the report flags it as marginal, so it's not really a goer. The real standout of the entire forecast is Monday morning, the 20th. It's a smaller 2 ft, but the swell direction is pure SW, and the period is a very long 16 seconds. The big news is the wind: it's glassy, absolutely dead calm, with a NE breeze. That's the jackpot for a reef. The energy is moderate at 526 units, but the conditions are described as "very good." This is the cleanest window we've got, hands down.

The rest of that week, from Monday afternoon through to Thursday the 23rd, is a bit of a mixed bag. The swell hangs around 2 ft to 3 ft, mostly from the SSW, with those long periods. The wind is fickle, mostly light cross-shore or cross-onshore, keepin' things a bit messy. Wednesday afternoon the 22nd has another glassy moment with a 3 ft SSW swell and a shorter 10-second period, but the energy drops to 348 units. It's okay, but not the stand-out.

Headin' into the end of the first week and the start of the second, things get bigger but messier. Friday the 24th sees a jump in swell with a 3 ft SW groundswell, a very long 24-second period, and energy jumpin' to 1024 units. That's strong energy. The wind is a light cross-shore, so it's not completely blown out, but the quality is still marked as "marginal." By Saturday the 25th, the swell is up to 4 ft from the SSW, period at 21 seconds, and energy is a very strong 1719 units. But the wind is a moderate cross-shore, creatin' chop. This pattern continues through to the end of the month: bigger swells (3 ft to 4 ft), very long periods (17 to 21 seconds), and moderate to fresh cross-shore or cross-offshore winds. The energy stays high, often in the 1000 to 1300 range, but the conditions are "clean" when the wind goes cross-off, but still considered "marginal" for surf quality.

Then we get to Wednesday the 29th. The afternoon session sees a big shift. The swell height jumps to 7 ft, but it's comin' from the NW now, with a short, wind-swell period of just 8 seconds. The energy is still very strong at 1326 units, but the wind is a fresh cross-shore at 19 mph, makin' it lumpy. This is not a paddle surfer's dream. This shift to a short-period, onshore-angled NW windswell continues through the first week of August. On Thursday the 30th, we see 7 ft from the NW with that short 8-second period, and the wind is cross-offshore, so it's clean, but the wave quality is still "marginal." Honestly, from the 29th of July onward, the setup looks like it might be more interesting for the kite crowd than for us paddle surfers, given the size, short period, and strong wind.

The swell hangs around 5 ft to 7 ft for a few days, but by Sunday the 2nd of August, it drops back to 4 ft from the S, with a 12-second period and moderate energy. The wind is cross-offshore, keepin' it clean, but it's "marginal" at best. Monday the 3rd of August sees the energy drop right off to 212 units, and the conditions are described as "poor," so we're done.

So, to sum it up: the one true standout is Monday morning, the 20th of July. Get on it. That glassy window with the long-period SW groundswell at Deadman's is the pick of the entire 16 days. The followin' week has size and energy, but the quality is inconsistent, and the last week looks like a write-off for clean paddle surfing.

Rusty, signin' off.

Read more