Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I've been staring at the charts for your area, and to be honest, it's a bit of a tough stretch. The one spot we've got on the radar is Deadman's, a reef break that's pretty inconsistent. The whole 16-day window is a mixed bag of marginal conditions, and there's definitely no world-class swell on the cards. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first sniff of anything rideable comes on Wednesday, July 22nd, but it's a grim start. We're looking at a 4ft S swell with a period of 11 seconds, but the wind is a cross-on S breeze at 9 mph, making it choppy and messy. The combined energy is weak at (584), and the surf is just poor. The afternoon doesn't get much better, with a 5ft S swell and a 10-second period, but it's still cross-on. You'd be battling for a half-decent wave.

Thursday, July 23rd, sees a drop in size to 3ft SW swell, but the period stretches out to 14 seconds. That's a bit of a groundswell, but the wind is still cross-on or cross-shore, so it's not clean. The energy is moderate (421). This pattern of small, messy swell with cross-shore winds basically hangs around for the rest of July and into the first days of August. The swell direction is mostly from the SSW or SW, which is the optimum for Deadman's, but the wind just won't play ball. The swell periods are often long, over 14 seconds and even hitting 24 seconds on Friday, July 24th, which is a very long groundswell. That's good for the reef, but it's under 3ft and the wind is all over the shop.

The real kicker comes in the second week. There's a gap of nothing from July 29th through to August 3rd where the conditions are just poor or marginal. The best of the entire forecast is a small window around August 4th to 6th. On Tuesday, August 4th, the morning is glassy with a 4ft NW swell, but the period is a shocking 6 seconds. That's short-period windswill. The energy is weak (287). The afternoon is glassy too, with a 6ft NW swell, but still only 6 seconds. The energy is weak (378). This is the only time the wind is clean, but the swell quality is poor.

The real standout is Wednesday, August 5th, in the afternoon. The wind goes glassy, and we get a 7ft NW swell with an 8-second period. The combined energy is moderate (726). It's a bit too big for beginners, and the swell is from the north-west, which is not the ideal direction for Deadman's. It's a gamble, but the glassy conditions are a huge plus. The morning of Thursday, August 6th, is also glassy with a 6ft NW swell at 8 seconds, which is another good option with moderate energy (786).

Overall, don't get your hopes up. The first two weeks are a write-off unless you're desperate for a paddle. The best bet is to pencil in the afternoon of Wednesday, August 5th, or the morning of Thursday, August 6th, for the cleanest waves. But remember, this is a long-range call, so it's promising but not locked in. Deadman's is inconsistent anyway, so a blank run is not unusual for this area. For now, the setup looks more interesting for a kite than a paddle.

Rusty.

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