Deadman's Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for the next couple of weeks.

We’re looking at a bit of a slow start, but there’s some real promise if you’re patient. The first few days are pretty messy, but by the middle of next week we’ve got a standout window that’s worth circling on the calendar.

Sunday the 13th kicks off with small, weak surf. The morning has a light cross-onshore breeze messing up a tiny 2.3ft SW swell with a combined wave energy of 390 (moderate). It’s poor. The arvo gets a bit more size but the wind jumps to 19 mph from the NW, making it lumpy and cross-shore. Not worth paddling out.

Monday the 14th isn’t much better. Morning has a cross-shore breeze with 5.2ft of NW swell but the period is short (8 seconds), and the energy is moderate (490). The afternoon cleans up a touch with a cross-off wind, but it’s still only a 5.9ft NW swell with a short 7-second period. It’s marginal at best.

Tuesday the 15th – the morning has 6.6ft of NW swell with a combined energy of 1015 (moderate-strong), but the cross-shore wind and short period (8 seconds) keep it from being great. The afternoon looks nicer: 6.2ft of NW swell, a light cross-off breeze, and clean conditions. It’s a solid “expect good” call, but the period’s still short.

Wednesday the 16th is a step back. The morning has 6.6ft of NW swell and strong energy (1049) but the cross-onshore wind makes it choppy. The afternoon drops to 5.2ft and stays cross-shore. Both are marginal.

Thursday the 17th – the morning is poor, with a weak 3.6ft NW swell and cross-on wind. But the afternoon is a little gem: glassy conditions, a tiny 2.0ft SSW swell, but with a very long 16-second period. The combined energy is moderate (470). For Deadman’s, which is a reef break, that long-period groundswell will wrap in nicely. It’s small but clean. If you’ve got a log, this is your moment.

Friday the 18th through to Tuesday the 22nd – this stretch is all small SW swell, 2.0ft to 3.0ft, with periods bouncing between 16 and 19 seconds. That’s very long-period groundswell, so it’ll have good shape but be pretty inconsistent. The highlight of this run is Sunday the 20th afternoon and Tuesday the 22nd afternoon, both showing glassy conditions with 3.0ft and 2.6ft SW swell respectively, and combined energies of 668 and 682 (moderate). Deadman’s is a reef, so these long-period SW swells will peel nicely, and with the glassy wind, it’ll be a dream for a mellow session. Crowds are “often” here, so expect company.

Now, here’s the real standout. Wednesday the 23rd morning. That’s the one. Glassy conditions, 6.2ft of NW swell with a solid 13-second period, and a combined wave energy of 1745 (strong). This is excellent surf for experienced surfers – 6.2ft is solid, so leave the beginner boards at home. The wind is glassy, the direction matches the optimum (SW for Deadman’s? Actually, this NW swell is cross to the reef, but with glassy wind and that period, it’ll still be quality. The crowd profile says “often” – it’ll be busy for good reason.

After that, Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th drop back to 4.3ft to 5.2ft NW swell with shorter periods (10-11 seconds) and cross-shore winds. Saturday the 26th and Sunday the 27th have some cross-off wind but the period drops to 8-9 seconds, making it less appealing. Monday the 28th finishes with poor surf and messy winds.

So, the best bet is Wednesday the 23rd morning. If you want something smaller and cleaner, Sunday the 20th afternoon and Tuesday the 22nd afternoon are your glassy, long-period windows.

Water temp is 59.2°, which is about 1.3° warmer than normal for this time of year – pretty standard, nothing wild.

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