Cottons Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this 16-day window for Cottons Point is a tough one. We start pretty flat and messy, and it takes a long while before anything worth paddling out for shows up. The whole first week is a write-off, with poor surf conditions day after day. The swell energy stays moderate, around 250 to 450 (combined energy), but the wind’s always cross-on or onshore, and the wave comment is consistently “poor surf conditions” or “marginal.” It’s not until around Wednesday 23 July that we see a real change, and even then it comes with strings attached.

The water temp on Sunday 12 July is 68°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – a nice little bonus if you do get wet. But honestly, for the first ten days, you’re looking at flat, choppy, or just unrideable stuff. From Sunday 12 July right through to Tuesday 22 July, there’s nothing I’d recommend. The swell height hovers around 1 ft to 4 ft, but the winds are never clean – mostly cross-on from WSW, W, or S at 6-12 mph, and the period is all over the shop. Sunday 12 July morning has a 3 ft SSW swell at 14 seconds, but with “poor surf conditions” and a score of 0, it’s a no-go.

The real standout – the only one worth talking about – comes Thursday 23 July and Friday 24 July. Thursday morning sees a solid 7 ft S swell at 14 seconds, with combined energy hitting 1647, which is strong to very strong. That’s a serious push of water. But here’s the catch: the wind is cross-on from WSW at 6 mph, so while it’s not howling, it’s not glassy either. The wave comment is “marginal surf forecast,” and the score is a 3 – the best we get all window. That 7 ft is gonna be too big for beginners, and with a 14-second period, it’s groundswell. At a reef and point setup like Cottons Point, that long-period swell should wrap in nicely and offer some proper shape, but the cross-on breeze will mess with take-offs. For experts only that morning. Friday 24 July stays similar, with a 6 ft SSW swell at 13 seconds and combined energy of 1443 – still very strong – but again cross-on winds at 9 mph. The afternoon drops to 6 ft S swell, same period. Both days are “marginal,” so expect lumpy faces but some grunty waves if you’re keen.

After that, Saturday 25 July afternoon shows a glimmer: 4 ft SSW swell at 12 seconds, with the wind swinging to onshore from SW at 3 mph – almost glassy. Combined energy is 664, moderate. That afternoon could offer cleaner lines, though the swell is dropping. Sunday 26 July morning has a 2 ft SW swell at a very long 20-second period – that’s proper groundswell, with long waits between sets. Combined energy 594, still moderate. But it’s onshore and light, so might be a sneaky session for a longboard or a mid-length.

Crowds at Cottons Point are described as “sometimes” a problem, so on these better days – especially the 23rd and 24th – expect a few locals out, but it won’t be a zoo. This spot is fairly consistent normally, but this forecast is a long dry spell before the juice turns on. Don’t hold your breath for the first ten days, but if you’re an expert, mark your calendar for Thursday 23 July morning.

Rusty.

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