Cottons Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let's talk about what's coming down the line for our local break.

Honestly, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty quiet for the most part. There's a long, drawn-out period of small, clean-ish but weak waves ahead, with a single pulse of bigger energy way out towards the end of the month. But it's a long way off, so don't hold your breath.

Right now, we're looking at a long stretch of small, inconsistent surf. The water's much warmer than normal for this time of year, coming in at 75°F with a temperature anomaly of 7°F, which is very unusual.

Let's start with the next few days. From Friday the 14th of August right through to the end of the week, we're looking at really small, inconsistent swell at Cottons Point (a reef and point setup). The swell is coming from the SSW, mostly around 2ft to 4ft, with a very long period of 16 to 18 seconds. That long period means the waves will have some shape and energy for their size, but the problem is the combined swell energy is weak to moderate – we're talking values around 594 to 713. The wind is mostly cross-onshore from the west or WSW, making things a bit choppy and messy. It's not great, frankly. These are marginal conditions at best, with a few sessions flagged as poor surf. The crowd factor is "sometimes" here, but with waves this small, I wouldn't expect a lineup battle.

This pattern just about repeats itself right through the following week. The 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, and 24th of August all look like more of the same: small, choppy, and inconsistent. Swell heights are hanging around 2ft to 3ft, with the odd 3ft day. The combined energy is dropping off, getting into the 200 to 400 range – weak to moderate. The wind stays mainly cross-onshore, keeping things a bit messy. There's no real standout day here; it's a long, flat run.

Now, here's the interesting bit – and it's a *long* way out, so keep your fingers crossed. Around the 25th of August (Tuesday), we start to see a big spike in the forecast. The swell height jumps to 5ft on the morning of the 25th, then 7ft in the afternoon, with a period of 15-16 seconds from the S. The combined energy rockets up to 1795 and then 2510 – that's strong wave energy. The wind is onshore, though, from the SSW at 6-9 mph, which is not ideal. It's still a marginal forecast, but this is the only real pulse of size in the whole 16-day window. The 26th looks similar, with 7ft swell from the S, and the energy is still very strong at 2554. The wind is cross-onshore from the S, so it's still not clean. Given the size, this is for the more experienced crew out there.

After that, the swell quickly fades back down to the 5ft to 2ft range by the 27th and 28th, with the energy dropping back to moderate. The 29th of August closes out the period with a bit of a blustery, cross-onshore wind from the S, making for poor conditions.

So, to sum it up: the next couple of weeks are mostly a write-off for any decent surf. The only real glimmer of hope is that potential pulse of bigger swell around the 25th and 26th of August, but it's a long way off, the wind isn't looking great, and it's a "marginal" call. Keep an eye on it, but don't plan your week around it just yet.

Rusty.

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