Cottons Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a hard look at the charts for the next couple of weeks. It’s not a classic run, but there's a bit of life in the water if you know where to look.

The overall pattern is one of persistent, onshore wind from the south-west to west-south-west, which is going to keep things lumpy and messy at Cottons Point for most of the period. The swell is present, but the quality is a real struggle. We’re looking at a long stretch of marginal conditions, with a few days in the middle that are just plain poor.

We start off on Tuesday, 25 August, with a small 2 ft to 3 ft south-west swell, but the wind is on it all day. The water is a very unusual 73°F, which is a whopping 5°F warmer than normal for this time of year – feels like a bath out there. The wave energy is moderate (400-484), but the forecast is already calling it marginal. The swell has a very long period of 16 seconds on the morning, which is a proper groundswell, but the onshore wind is going to kill the shape.

Wednesday, 26 August, sees the swell pick up to 4 ft from the south, with a period of 12 seconds and moderate energy (807 in the morning). It’s still onshore, though. The wind is light, which is a small mercy, but it’s from the wrong direction for clean waves.

Thursday, 27 August, is more of the same: 4 ft south swell, onshore wind, marginal. The energy drops to 543. Honestly, it’s a grind.

Then we hit a rough patch. From Friday, 28 August, right through to Monday, 7 September, the wind shifts to a cross-on shore from the west and west-north-west, and the wave quality nosedives. The swell stays between 2 ft and 4 ft, but it’s all cross-on and choppy. The energy is moderate, but the description is "light cross-onshore with small wind ripples" or "gentle cross-onshore and fairly choppy," and later, "poor surf conditions." There’s a period around 1 September where the wind hits 16 mph from the WNW, creating a cross-chop. That’s kite-surfing weather, not paddle-surfing weather. The setup at Cottons Point (a reef and point) is exposed, but with that wind, it’s a no-go for a clean wave.

The best of a bad bunch looks to be the mornings of Friday, 4 September, and Saturday, 5 September. On Friday the 4th, we have a 3 ft SSW swell with a 17-second period and moderate energy (693). The wind is a light cross-on from the SSW, but the scan says "unknown" for the wave state, which is a bit of a gamble. On Saturday the 5th, the swell is 4 ft from the SSW, period 16 seconds, energy 780. The wind is again a light cross-on from the WSW. The wave state is again "light cross-onshore with small wind ripples". It’s not great, but it’s the least bad option. The swell is 4 ft, which is still manageable for intermediates, but it’s not going to be a standout session.

The very end of the forecast, on Tuesday, 9 September, shows a flicker of hope with a 3 ft SW swell, a long 18-second period, and moderate energy (645), but the wind is still onshore and the forecast is still marginal. It’s too far out to get excited about.

For a break that is "consistent" like Cottons Point, this is a rough patch. The crowds are listed as "sometimes," so it won’t be packed, but that’s because the surf is poor. The best I can honestly say is to keep an eye on the 4th and 5th of September for the most promising swell, but don’t expect perfection. The onshore wind is the story of this fortnight.

Rusty.

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