Cabo Roche Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee. Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's coming down the line for us.

Honestly, looking at the whole 16-day run, this is a tough stretch. The numbers are pretty flat pretty much the whole way through. We’re looking at a long gap of nothing special until things try to pick up a little around the second weekend.

Let’s start at the beginning. For Friday the 3rd and Saturday the 4th of July, the swell is a tiny `0.7ft` from the West, with periods all over the place. The real killer here is the wind – we’re looking at `28 mph` to `25 mph` easterly offshore breezes. Yeah, it’s clean, but it’s howling. It’s “strong offshore and clean but hard to paddle into” – you’ll be fighting like crazy just to sit out there for nothing waves. Combined swell energy is a paltry 6 to 11 – that’s weak stuff. Forget it.

The whole first week of July continues in the same vein. Through Sunday the 5th, Monday the 6th, Tuesday the 7th, and Wednesday the 8th, that West swell drops to `0.3ft` or stays around `0.7ft-1.0ft`. Winds are mostly offshore or cross-offshore until Tuesday arvo when it turns onshore. The energy levels are bottoming out at 2 to 8. Just no power. I wouldn't bother paddling out. It’s a write-off.

We get a tiny flicker of something on Thursday the 10th of July morning – there’s a `3ft` West swell starting to show, with a short period of 5 seconds, pushing the combined energy up to 56 (moderate energy). The wind is a gentle cross-onshore from the SW, so it’ll be a bit choppy. It’s still “poor surf conditions”. For a total beginner, *maybe* the size is okay but the quality is just bad.

The best of a bad bunch – and I mean the *standout* in a desert – might be the Tuesday morning of the 14th of July. We get a tiny `1ft` West swell, period of 8 seconds, but the wind is showing as SSW at `3 mph` and glassy. That “glassy” mention is a big deal. For that one session, it’ll be clean. But we’re talking about a 1ft wave here. Not exactly going to be a classic.

Then again on Wednesday the 15th of July morning, another glassy window with a `1.0ft` West swell. Again, clean but tiny. Combined energy is only 10.

We do see a bit more size trying to show up for the second week. On Friday the 18th of July morning, we have a `3ft` swell from the WNW with a 6-second period, pushing the energy to 76. The wind is a light cross-onshore from the SW. Then that arvo, the combined energy hits a 100 (moderate wave energy) with a `3ft` swell, but the wind turns onshore from the WNW at `12 mph`. That’ll be messy.

Cabo Roche is generally a consistent spot, so this blank run is a bit of a shocker, but it happens. The water is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting around `74°F` with a positive anomaly of `3°F`.

In summary: don't get your hopes up for the next two weeks. The morning of Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th will be your cleanest windows, but you’ll be on a longboard fighting for ankle-biters. That bigger push on the 18th has some energy but the wind kills it. If you *have* to get wet, pick the glassy mornings, but be prepared for a frustrating session.

Rusty.

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