Abras Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

It’s a bit of a flat, honest look for Abras over the next couple of weeks. The guidance is pretty clear: we’re not getting any decent windows of surf that would get you excited. The swell direction is all over the place but mostly from the southeast and east, which isn't what this reef wants—it needs that northeast groundswell to really wake up. On top of that, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, chopping things up and making it messy. Not a good combo.

The first stretch, from Monday the 14th through to Wednesday the 23rd, is pretty much a write-off. We’re looking at small, weak swell in the 1.2m to 1.5m range, with periods mostly around 7 to 8 seconds. That’s short-period wind swell, lacking any real push. The combined energy is mostly in that weak to moderate range, sitting around 224 to 300 in the brackets. It’s just not doing anything for the reef. The water temp is sitting at 27°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so at least the water will feel fine.

Around Thursday the 17th, there’s a little bump in energy—551 in the brackets—but the period drops to 6 seconds in the afternoon and the swell is only 1.7m. That’s a combo of weak and short-period, and with 30 km/h onshore winds, the surface will be a mess. Not worth paddling out for.

Now, the more interesting window shows up on Wednesday the 23rd. We finally see a long-period swell arrive, with periods of 11 to 12 seconds, and the energy jumps to 629. That’s more like it—proper groundswell. Swell heights are still modest, around 1.3m to 1.5m, but that longer period means more push and better shape. But here’s the catch: the direction is from the east-southeast, which is still not optimal for Abras. It’s a reef that likes northeast. So while the energy is there, the direction is a bit off, and the wind is still going to be onshore, around 25 to 30 km/h. It’s going to be lumpy and hard to read. Not a total washout, but you’d be fighting the conditions.

The last few days, from Saturday the 26th into Tuesday the 30th, the swell stays around 1.5m to 1.6m but the period drops back down to 7 seconds. So that long-period window closes quickly. The energy is moderate, around 250 to 350, but the wind stays fresh and onshore, sometimes going cross-onshore. The surf will be there, but it’s going to be junky and sectiony.

Honestly, if you’re an advanced surfer, you might find a few salvageable waves on the 23rd when that longer period swell hits, but it’s not going to be a classic. For beginners, it’s mostly too small and messy, and when it’s over 1.5m with that onshore wind, it’s not going to be friendly.

So, look, there’s no standout day in this forecast. It’s a couple of weeks of pretty poor conditions. The best bet is probably Wednesday the 23rd, but even then, it’s a “maybe” not a “grab your board” moment. The setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, especially with those consistent onshore winds.

That’s the call. Hang tight, it won’t be poor forever—forecasts change.

Rusty.

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