Xivares Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, looking at the surf ahead for Xivares. It’s a bit of a slow start, but there’s a proper pulse of swell building into the back half of the week and into next week, if you can wait it out. The water’s sitting at 21°, which is a touch warmer than usual for mid-September — nothing crazy, but you won’t need the thickest rubber.

Right now, Sunday the 13th is pretty ordinary. We’ve got 1.5m of NNW swell but it’s crossed up, with a light ENE breeze putting a bit of chop on the face. The energy is moderate at 680, but it’s messy and the tide isn’t doing us any favours. Not worth paddling out for anything serious.

Monday the 14th drops off — 1.1m, period 11 seconds, still crossed. Tuesday’s even smaller, down to 0.6m and fading. This stretch is dead. You’re looking at a couple of days of nothing worth chasing.

Wednesday the 16th is where things start to wake up. Early morning, it goes glassy, and that NNW swell pushes back up to 1.5m with a 9-second period. The energy jumps to 438, which is solid for the size. That glass is the key — clean, no wind, proper lines. It’s a good start. The afternoon gets a bit lumpy with the north wind turning onshore, so hit the morning window.

Thursday the 17th is the first real standout. Morning is glassy again, 1.7m of NNW swell, period 11 seconds, energy climbing to 645. That’s proper, clean surf — the kind where you’re just trading off with your mates. Friday morning holds the same kind of vibe, 1.6m, glass, 654 energy. Two mornings in a row with clean, solid waves. That’s the pick of the first half.

Then things get serious. Friday afternoon the swell jumps to 2.5m, period 16 seconds, and the energy rockets up to 3277. That’s strong, groundswell energy — long-period, powerful, and it’s pushing hard. But the wind’s onshore, so it’s not clean. Saturday the 19th is the big one: 2.3m, 13-second period, energy at 1915, and it’s glassy in the morning. That’s the standout of the whole run. Big, clean, lined-up NNW swell. This is expert territory though — over 2.5m in the swell, and even at 2.3m it’s a heavy water day. If you’re not comfortable in that size, give it a wide berth. The afternoon gets a bit wind-affected with that ENE breeze, so it’s a morning mission.

Sunday the 20th backs off a touch — 1.5m, period 11 seconds, but the wind is up and it’s chopped. Not the same quality. Then Monday the 21st is another clean morning: 2.1m, 13-second swell, energy at 1431, glassy. That’s another cracker, though again, it’s big and only for the experienced. Tuesday the 22nd settles to 1.5m, glassy morning again, but the energy drops back to 735 — still fun, just not as powerful.

Now the back half of the run gets messy. Wednesday the 23rd starts okay at 1.4m, but the afternoon swings onshore with 20 km/h and the swell drops in quality. From Thursday the 24th through the 26th, it’s all cross-shore chop, ENE at 20-25 km/h, and the period drops to 7 seconds — short, weak, sloppy. The swell size stays around 2-2.1m but it’s junk. Not worth your time unless you’re into wrestling chop.

The last kick is Sunday the 27th and Monday the 28th — the swell holds at 1.7m, period 15-12 seconds, but it’s crossed again with moderate wind. Energy’s up there (1345 on Sunday morning) but the quality’s just not there. It’s a tease more than anything.

So the bottom line: if you want the best, you’re looking at Thursday morning the 17th and Friday morning the 18th for solid, clean, glassy waves in the 2-1.7m range. Then Saturday morning the 19th is the standout — big, powerful, glassy, but it’s expert-only. Monday the 21st is another big clean one if you missed Saturday. Everything else is either too small, too choppy, or just not worth the paddle. It’s a waiting game, but when it hits, it hits proper.

Stay safe out there.

— Rusty

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