El Mongol Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it for our local stretch.

We're looking at a pretty quiet period ahead. The swell energy is weak for most of the first week, with combined energy values mostly in the two-digit range – we're talking about 65 or 69 early on, which is barely a bump. The water temp is sitting at 69°F with a 1°F anomaly, so pretty average for this time of year, nothing out of the ordinary.

Thursday 30th July kicks things off with a tiny 2ft NW swell, 8-second period. Morning is glassy with NNW wind at 3 mph, but the waves are poor – it's just too small to do anything with. The afternoon is a cross-on breeze, still nothing worth paddling out for.

Friday 31st July and Saturday 1st August are more of the same. Tiny amounts of NW and NNW swell, around 2ft, with mostly light winds. Saturday morning looks the cleanest of the bunch with some cross-off ENE wind and a glassy feel, but the wave size is still poor.

Sunday 2nd August morning is glassy but the swell has dropped to just 2ft from the NNE with a real short 5-second period. This is barely a ripple. Monday 3rd August morning is glassy again on a tiny 0.9ft WNW swell, but the period jumps a bit to 9 seconds – still, not enough push to make it worthwhile.

The rest of the first week stays flat or near-flat. Thursday 6th August morning is glassy on a 0.6ft WNW swell with a 10-second period – that’s a long wait for nothing. The combined energy is only 25 (weak).

We hit a gap in quality surf until Monday 10th August. That morning we finally get a 3ft WNW swell with 8-second period and glassy conditions from a light NE breeze. The combined energy hits 132 (moderate) – we’re in the three-digit zone. This is surfable but very ordinary, a one-out-of-ten kind of day. The afternoon jumps to 6ft but with a 6-second period and cross-shore wind, so it’s a mess.

Tuesday 11th August brings the biggest pulse of the whole 16 days: an 8ft NW swell with 10-second period. The combined energy is massive – 2029 in the morning (very strong) and 1489 in the afternoon. But here's the catch – the wind is onshore from the NNW and NW at 6 mph, and the quality score is marginal at best. This is big and unruly, really only for experienced surfers. It’s a bit of a beast.

Wednesday 12th August sees the swell drop to 5ft from the NNW in the morning, still onshore wind (291 energy), marginal. The afternoon is even smaller at 5ft, still onshore.

Thursday 13th August morning looks better – 3ft NNW swell with glassy conditions and a light NE breeze. Combined energy is 135 (moderate). The water temp anomaly is still normal. This is a decent window for a session, but the afternoon gets chopped up by a 9 mph cross-shore wind.

Friday 14th August finishes things off with a clean morning – 3ft NNW swell, cross-off E wind at 6 mph, combined energy 75. It’s small, but clean. The afternoon gets gusty with a 12 mph breeze.

The standout window? Honestly, there's no true gem here. If I had to pick, Tuesday 11th August morning has the biggest swell at 8ft from the NW, but the onshore wind makes it a messy, expert-only affair at El Mongol (reef). The best balance of size and clean conditions might be Monday 10th August morning (3ft, glassy) or Thursday 13th August morning (3ft, glassy). Both are just "surfable" though – not epic.

This spot breaks consistently, but the 16-day window is mostly flat with one big, windy spike. For a reef break like El Mongol, that long 10-second period on the 11th is a groundswell, so it’ll have more shape but long lulls between sets. Expect some crowd at this spot as it's often busy.

Rusty.

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