El Mongol Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty checkin’ in from the water’s edge.

Alright, listen, I’m not gonna lie to you. The next week and a half at El Mongol is a real grind. There’s some swell in the water, but with the wrong wind direction for this spot, it’s gonna be a frustrating watch. We’ve got a long dry spell before anything really clicks. The water temp is sitting at 68.5°, which feels way warmer than it should for this time of year—a solid 4° above normal, so you can leave the 4/3 at home for now.

Right now, starting Saturday the 4th, it’s tiny. We’re looking at 2.6ft of weak NW swell (145 combined energy) with a cross-offshore breeze. It’s surfable if you’re desperate, but it’s very ordinary. Sunday the 5th is more of the same, barely 2.3ft. Monday the 6th drops even further; we get a glassy morning but it’s only 1.6ft. That’s a no-go.

We drift through a whole bunch of flat, onshore days with nothing to recommend. You’ve got a long gap from the 4th through to the 11th with basically no real options.

Finally, there’s a pulse of energy building for the morning of Saturday the 11th. The swell jumps to 3ft from the NW, with a longer 11-second period and a solid 277 combined energy, but the wind is onshore, which messes it up. It’s still marginal.

Now, hold onto your board. The standout—the one you’ve been waiting for—is Monday the 13th. This is the pick of the entire forecast. We’ve got a solid 6.9ft NW swell rolling in, with a short period of 8-9 seconds (so it’s a bit raw) but the energy is significant at 811. The wind goes completely glassy all morning and into the afternoon. Perfect conditions. It’s a reef break, so with that size, this is expert territory—6.9ft is solid, don’t take it lightly. The swell direction is from the northwest, which is good for this spot, but with a short period like that on a reef, expect some heavy, fast walls.

Tuesday the 14th drops back to a much more manageable 3.6ft in the morning, still glassy, but the size is gone. After that, it’s back to small, onshore junk for the rest of the window.

So here’s the deal: grit your teeth through the first ten days of flat and onshore slop. Your reward is a killer glassy morning with proper-sized waves on Monday the 13th, but that’s a day for the experienced crew only.

Stay patient.

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