El Mongol Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let me tell you straight up, this one’s a tough pill to swallow. We’re looking at a solid 16-day window, but honest to god, the surf gods are asleep at the wheel. We’ve got a stretch of utter flatness and junk conditions before a very brief, very ordinary little pulse of energy shows up.

For the first week, from Sunday the 5th right through till the morning of Thursday the 10th, it’s basically a write-off. We’re talking dribble heights between 1ft and 2ft, mostly onshore or cross-onshore wind, and combined energy readings stuck well below 100 (the weakest category). Swell periods are short, mostly 8–10 seconds, so no push. It’s a classic early-July lull.

Then we get a slight tease on Friday the 10th. For the morning only, the wind goes dead calm and glassy, and we see a tiny, weak pulse come through—3ft from the NW with a 9-second period. The combined energy finally cracks triple digits at 113 (moderate wave energy), but “surfable but very ordinary” is the generous call. For El Mongol, that’s about as exciting as watching paint dry. The water’s running at 69°F, which is a massive 4°F warmer than normal for this time of year—way unusual. You’ll be in a shorty, maybe boardies.

The real, and I mean *only*, faint glimmer of hope lands on Sunday the 12th. We get a bump up to 4–5ft from the NNW, with a moderate energy reading of 340 (moderate wave energy). It’s still a short-period swell, around 8-9 seconds, so it'll be a bit crumbly. But the kicker is light cross-shore winds from the NE. For a reef setup like El Mongol, that’s a decent combo. It’s on the smaller side, but clean enough to get a few. This is the best we’ve got, and it’s still a 1/10 on the quality scale. Don’t expect much.

After that Sunday, the window slams shut again. The rest of the run into the week of the 20th is tiny, weak, and often plagued with onshore wind. The energy levels drop back to barely a whisper.

So, while this area is usually consistent, this run is a blank. That’s just how it goes sometimes. Don’t hang up your board; forecasts shift. For now, the only date worth circling is Sunday the 12th, with the morning looking best for a sneaky session on the smaller gear.

Keep it salty,
Rusty

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