El Mongol Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here, lookin’ at what’s cookin’ for El Mongol over the next couple of weeks. Straight up, this is a tough stretch. We’re talkin’ a long, quiet run with very little to get excited about.

Right now and for the next 13 days, it’s mostly a write-off. We’ve got a solid gap from Wednesday the 8th of July right through to Monday the 20th of July with nothing worth paddling out for. The swell is tiny, mostly hanging around 1ft to 2ft, and when it’s not dead small, the wind’s cross or onshore, messin’ up what little shape there is. Even the glassy mornings on the 9th, 11th, 14th, and 15th are let down by swells that are just too weak to do anything with – the combined energy is way under 100, often in the 30s or 50s, which is basically flat. It’s a real patience tester.

Now, if you can wait, there’s finally a pulse way out there. Tuesday the 21st of July morning is where it starts to get interesting. We’re lookin’ at a solid 7ft swell from the west-northwest, with the combined energy jumpin’ way up to 554 – that’s some proper grunt. The wind is glassy, which is a huge win, and the water temp is a touch warmer than normal at 68°. But hold up – that’s a lot of power for this setup. At 7ft, this is gettin’ into expert territory. The period is 8 seconds, so it’s a short-period swell, not that clean, drawn-out groundswell we love. The optimum direction here is north-northwest, and this is comin’ from the west-northwest, so it’s a bit off-angle.

The standout, and I mean the only real standout, looks like Wednesday the 22nd of July morning. The swell drops a little to a still-chunky 6ft from the northwest, with an energy of 778 – that’s very strong. The wind is glassy again, dead clean. This is a much better match for the optimum north-northwest direction. That said, at 6ft it’s still big enough to be a handful for anyone but experienced surfers. This break is consistent, so it’ll hold that size, and it’s a reef setup, so it should handle that period of 8 seconds better than a beach break would. Expect clean, powerful waves. Just keep an eye on the crowds, because ‘often’ crowded might mean a few of the locals are finally out after this dry spell.

After Wednesday morning, it fades fast. Thursday the 23rd drops away and we’re back to small stuff.

So, the call: the best bet by a long shot is the morning of Wednesday the 22nd of July at El Mongol. Keep the long-range hope in check, but that session has the best combo of size, wind, and direction in the whole outlook.

Rusty.

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