El Mongol Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me tell you how it's looking at El Mongol for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I've gotta be straight with you – it's a bit of a tough stretch ahead. We've got a long, quiet start to the period. The first real chance to even think about paddling out won't come until Thursday the 6th of August, and even then, it's not going to be anything to write home about. We're looking at a few days of pretty ordinary conditions before that.

Right now, water temps are sitting at 69°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year.

So, let's run through it. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th are a write-off – tiny swell, poor surf. Wednesday the 5th stays small, with a touch more energy in the afternoon but still not worth suiting up.

Thursday morning the 6th is where we finally see something. A bit of a NNW swell pushes in at about 4ft, with a period of 10 seconds. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the ENE, keeping things clean. The combined energy is up to 251 (moderate). It's surfable, but it's just very ordinary. Thursday afternoon is much the same, a little less energy (186) but still clean.

Friday the 7th drops right back off into the tiny stuff, and we're back to poor conditions. Saturday and Sunday the 8th and 9th stay tiny and mostly poor.

Now, here's the one and only standout in this whole forecast, and it's over a week away. Tuesday the 11th of August. By the afternoon, we've got a pulse of N swell coming in at 4ft with a 10-second period. The wind swings to a light cross-offshore from the NE, which should keep the reef at El Mongol looking pretty clean. The combined energy hits 287 (moderate). The model is actually calling for "good surf conditions" for that Tuesday arvo. That's your best bet. It's a ways out, so don't lock it in, but it's the one to watch.

Wednesday the 12th onwards we drop back into small, weak surf and mostly onshore or cross-shore winds, so that window is tight.

The big issue here is consistency – or lack of it. For a reef break that's usually fairly consistent, this is a lean run. A few of those days in the second week have a bit of energy, but the wind just ruins it. For example, Monday the 17th has a 4ft swell but the cross-onshore wind is going to mess it up. And Tuesday the 18th has a 4ft swell and moderate onshore wind, making it look more like a kiteboarding session than a surfing one.

So, to put it simply: if you're hanging for a wave, your best window is Tuesday afternoon the 11th. The rest of the fortnight is mostly a waiting game.

Stay patient.
Rusty.

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