El Mongol Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s chew the fat on what’s coming for our local break.

First off, I’m gonna level with you – the next week or so is a total bummer. We’ve got a real dry spell from now through the 20th of July. Tiny little ankle-biters, messy wind, and absolutely no juice to get your heart pumping. The combined wave energy is barely breaking double digits most days, like 23 (weak energy) on the 15th morning. It’s a grim stretch of poor surf conditions, so don’t bother paddling out unless you just want to sit on your board and soak up some rays.

Things start to look a little more promising on Monday the 21st of July. That’s when we finally see a pulse of energy. The morning session at El Mongol is the standout. We’re looking at a clean 6ft swell pushing from the NNE, with a period of 7 seconds. The wind is offshore and light, coming out of the ENE at 6 mph, so the faces will be tidy. The combined energy jumps up to 331 (moderate), which is a big step up from the flat spell. This is big enough for intermediates to have a go, but beginners might find it a handful. It’s a consistent reef break, so the shape should be there. Crowds are often around here, so expect company.

The afternoon of the 21st holds a bit of size at 5ft, but the wind picks up a notch and the period drops, making it a bit more of a bumpy, less attractive option. Still, there’s energy (447) in the water.

After that little pulse, it gets a bit messy again. The 22nd and 23rd are hit-and-miss with onshore winds and weaker swell. We get another good-looking window on Saturday the 25th of July. The morning is glassy with a clean 3ft, long-period groundswell from the NW at 11 seconds. That’s a classic groundswell, full of energy (298) and long lines. This is a reef break, so it’s the right kind of spot for a long-period swell like this – it won’t just close out. The wind is glassy, a light NNW at 3 mph. That’s a beautiful combo. Ideal for a longboard or a mid-length.

The 26th of July also looks good. Sunday morning and afternoon both show glassy conditions with a 4ft swell from the NNW at 10 seconds. Combined energy is solid at 292. This is a very consistent run of clean, surfable waves.

The very end of the month, around the 29th and 30th, has some more swell in the 5ft range with long periods, but the wind is a bit dicey, with some onshore and cross-shore components. It’s still worth watching, but the 21st morning and the 25th morning are your true standouts in this 16-day outlook.

Stay safe, keep your eyes on the horizon, and don't trust the flat spells to last.

Rusty.

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