El Mongol Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, looking at the next 16 days. We've got one spot on the menu, and it's gonna be a bit of a slow burner.

Alright, let's get into it. The forecast starts off with a bit of a flat spell. For the first couple of days, we're looking at tiny, weak waves. The energy is low, around (41 to 50), and the swell periods are short, so there's just not much to work with. You'll be waiting for a pulse.

The first sign of life arrives on the morning of Thursday the 27th. The swell bumps up a bit to 3ft from the WNW with an 8-second period, pushing the energy into three digits at (101). The wind is glassy which is a big plus, but the waves are still pretty ordinary. It's surfable, but don't expect anything special. This pattern of small, glassy waves from the WNW continues through to the weekend, with the swell hovering around 3ft to 4ft. The water temp is sitting at a balmy 71°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you can leave the thick rubber at home.

Now, things start to get a bit more interesting. On Friday the 28th, the swell builds to 5ft from the WNW, but it comes with a cross-shore wind which messes with the quality. It’s a bit of a miss on the wind window.

The real standout we're looking at is on the morning of Saturday the 29th. The swell holds at 5ft from the NW, but crucially, we get glassy conditions again. This is a solid, rideable size with clean conditions, (390) of energy behind it. For an intermediate surfer, this is the session to aim for, with clean, glassy waves. The crowds are likely to be there though, so get in early.

The next highlight comes on the morning of Wednesday, September 2nd. This one has a bit more promise. The swell comes up to 6ft from the NW with a 10-second period and a healthy (696) energy reading. The wind is a light cross-offshore breeze, keeping things clean. This is offering some of the best shape and power in the whole outlook, and definitely the biggest clean swell of the run. If you can handle it, this is the one.

After that, the swell backs off again but hangs around the 4ft to 5ft mark for the first week of September. The winds get a bit more onshore and messy for most of it, making it hard to find a good bank. A few mornings offer glass, but the surf is average.

Looking further out, we've got a final dash of hope on the morning of Wednesday, September 9th. A 5ft NW swell with a very long 13-second period pushes the energy up to (831). That's proper groundswell energy, but the wind is straight onshore from the NNW. For El Mongol, a reef break, that long-period swell will wrap in nicely, but the onshore wind will likely make it a bumpy, choppy mess. It's a case of what could have been.

So, to wrap it up: the best two windows to pencil in are the morning of Saturday the 29th for a clean, intermediate-friendly session, and the morning of Wednesday, September 2nd, for the pick of the swell under clean offshore winds. Beyond that, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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