El Mongol Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for El Mongol, our only spot on the menu for this stretch. We’ve got a long window ahead, but don’t get your hopes up for the next week or so – it’s going to be a slow grind.

The first real chance to get wet looks like Friday morning, the 21st of August. We’ll see a 6ft NW swell rolling in with a 10-second period, pushing a decent amount of energy (786). The catch is a light cross-onshore breeze from the W at 6 mph, which will put a bit of a texture on the surface. The water is sitting at 71°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a nice bonus. It’s looking marginal, but it’s the first pulse of anything.

Saturday the 22nd actually cleans up nicely for the morning. The swell drops to 4ft from the NNW, but the wind switches to an E cross-offshore at 9 mph, giving us clean conditions. The energy is moderate (271), and for a reef break, that combo is worth a look. It’s not a standout, but it’s the best we’ve seen so far.

The next few days from Sunday the 23rd through to Wednesday the 26th are flat. Tiny, weak swell, sometimes glassy but nothing surfable. You’d be better off finding something else to do.

Now, things start to get interesting around Thursday the 27th of August. The swell jumps to 6ft from the WNW with a short 8-second period (410 energy), but unfortunately the wind is a cross-onshore mess from the WSW at 9 mph. It turns into a proper choppy crumbler by the afternoon as the wind picks up to 16 mph and the swell hits 8ft. This is not paddle-friendly – it’s looking more like a kite session.

Friday the 28th brings a big spike: 8ft NW swell with a 10-second period, and the energy is strong (2077). The wind is a light cross-offshore from the WSW at 6 mph, which keeps the surface clean. But at this size, 8ft, this is really only for the experts. The tide might be a factor too, so pick your moment.

The standout of the entire forecast comes on Saturday the 29th of August. Overnight, the swell settles to a clean 6ft from the NNW, with a 10-second period and a solid energy reading (854). The wind goes glassy – SE at 3 mph. That’s about as good as it gets for a reef break. Clean, consistent, that size will hold up nicely. This is the day to circle on the calendar. Expect some crowds though – El Mongol is often busy, and for good reason when it’s this good.

Sunday the 30th is still nice, with a smaller 4ft NW swell and glassy conditions, but it’s a step down from Saturday.

Monday the 31st of August is a monster. Solid 13ft WNW swell with a 9-second period and an energy reading of 2654. That’s a lot of power. But the wind is a cross-onshore breeze from the W at 9 mph, and that setup is going to be a messy, powerful beast. Only for the very experienced, and even then, it’s got a sketchy feel.

The first week of September is a bit of a mixed bag. We get a few small clean mornings, like Wednesday the 2nd with a 5ft NW swell and glass, but nothing that competes with that last Saturday of August.

Saturday the 5th of September looks like another solid option. The swell is 7ft from the NW, 10-second period (1542 energy), and the wind is glassy from the NNE. That’s an excellent call for experienced surfers. The energy is strong, and the glassy morning will make it look like a dream. The afternoon stays clean with a slight cross breeze, but it’s that morning session that’s the real prize.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is mostly a waste of time. The clear standout is Saturday the 29th of August – that’s the one. The second option, for the bigger-wave crew, is Saturday the 5th of September. Keep an eye on the tides, and don’t expect much before the 28th.

Rusty.

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