El Mongol Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break it down.

Honestly, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim. There’s no surf worth paddling out for right now, and it stays that way for a good, long stretch. The first chance of anything at all comes mid-month, but even then, it’s nothing to write home about.

For the first week and a half, from Tuesday the 7th right through to Friday the 17th, it’s a total flat spell. Tiny, weak, short-period drivel – we’re talking swell heights mostly under 3 ft and periods barely hitting 10 seconds. The combined energy is in the low double-digits or triple-digits at best, but the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and every single session is rated as poor surf. Not a single wave worth chasing. If you’re into kite surfing, the afternoon on Wednesday the 15th sees a 4 ft NW swell but with onshore wind, so maybe that setup looks more interesting for you. Otherwise, leave the boards in the shed.

Finally, there’s a little flicker of hope around Saturday the 11th. The morning shows a clean, cross-offshore breeze from the east and a 2 ft NW swell with a period of 11 seconds. That’s a groundswell, and for a reef break like El Mongol, that could actually shape up okay. The combined energy is moderate. The afternoon stays clean too, with a NE cross-off, but the swell drops a touch in energy. The wave comment calls it “surfable but very ordinary,” and honestly, with consistent offshore winds, you might get a few fun ones. Just don’t expect any barrels.

After that, it’s back to poor conditions through the rest of the second week. A few glassy moments on Thursday the 16th morning (1 ft, N, period 6s) and Saturday the 18th morning (1 ft, WNW, period 6s), but the swell is tiny and weak – energy in the teens and twenties. On Sunday the 19th, the morning goes glassy again with a 1 ft NW swell and a period of 13 seconds. That period is long, and energy is still low. It could be clean but tiny. For a reef break, a long-period swell can wrap in nicely, but at that size, you’ll be fighting for scraps.

So, the standout? It has to be Saturday the 11th. That’s your best shot. El Mongol is a consistent reef, and while the swell is small, the offshore wind will make it clean. Crowds are listed as “often,” so expect company. The swell direction is NW, which is a bit off the optimum NNW, but close enough to work. For the rest of the window, you’re better off waiting for a better forecast.

Rusty.

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