Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up at Thompsons Bay.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the next week and a half is gonna be a tough slog. There’s a big ol’ gap of nothing much to get excited about, with only a couple of days offering anything worth paddling out for. Things finally look a bit more promising right at the very end of the 16-day window, but that’s a long way off and far from certain.

First up, we’ve got a couple of sessions on Saturday the 4th and Sunday the 5th of July, but don’t get your hopes up. Saturday morning has a solid 8ft swell from the SSE with a long 12-second period, carrying some serious weight with a combined energy of 2257. The problem? It’s onshore and the conditions are described as marginal, with questionable tides. The afternoon cleans up a bit wind-wise but drops to 7ft. The scores aren't there for a standout. Sunday drops off fast, with the wind swinging onshore and the swell fading quick. That morning still has 6ft, but the wind is cross-shore, and the combined energy is down to 751.

Then we hit a real dry spell. From Monday the 6th right through to Friday the 17th of July, it’s a whole lot of nothing. There’s a tiny blip on Monday afternoon with a 4ft wave from the NE and glassy conditions, which is a rare gift in this stretch, but the period is a short 6 seconds and the combined energy is only 315 – weak and wobbly. It’s surfable, but it’s a far cry from good. Thursday the 9th afternoon has a bigger 7ft swell from the S with a long 13-second period and combined energy of 1756, but the cross-onshore wind kills it. That pattern of decent swell with uncooperative winds repeats itself.

The biggest tease comes Saturday the 11th of July. There’s a chunky 8ft S swell with a very long 16-second period and a massive combined energy of 2630. That’s a proper groundswell. But it’s cross-onshore with rain showers and a risk of thunderstorms. That setup, with that much power and onshore wind at a beach setup, honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The 8ft+ size also puts it firmly in the “experts only” category even if the wind was perfect.

Now, for the one true standout in this whole outlook. Look to the very end of the window, on Sunday the 19th of July. We’ve got a solid 12ft swell from the S, a moderate 9-second period, and combined energy of 2158. The wind is a light 4 mph from the east, which is cross-onshore, but it’s described as "slight air" with only small wind ripples. It’s not glassy, but it’s close. For a break that’s sheltered and looks for swell from the SE, this S swell will wrap in with a lot of power. At 12ft, this is for experienced surfers only – beginners need to stay well clear. It’s the most promising day of the whole 16 days, but it’s a long-range call, so take it with a pinch of salt for now.

Water temps are about average for the time of year here at Thompsons Bay.

Rusty.

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