Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s on the menu at Thompsons Bay over the next couple weeks. The water temp here is sitting at a dead-on 71°, pretty much spot-on average for this time of year – nothing unusual there. The overall energy through the period is all over the shop, with some moderate to strong pulses. But the tricky wind pattern and a lot of cross-chop mean we’ve got to pick our moments carefully.

Monday morning (13 July) kicks off with a 4ft SE swell, 7-second period, weak energy (474). It’s cross-shore and light, so the vibe is “marginal.” Not terrible but not exactly lighting it up either. That afternoon it jumps to 5ft from the east, but the wind picks up to a moderate cross-shore and the conditions just fall apart. Score it a miss.

Tuesday (14 July) has a bit more oomph – 7ft ESE swell in the morning, period 9 seconds, moderate energy (789). Same issue though: cross-shore wind with a cross-chop. Afternoon gets even messier. This is pushing into that size where it could be a handful for the less experienced, and the wind’s not helping. Not a standout.

Wednesday (15 July) is where we get a little glimmer. The morning still has that cross-on breeze with 6ft E swell, but by the afternoon the wind drops to glassy – absolute magic. 6ft E swell, 10-second period, moderate energy (588). That glassy surface with a decent groundswell pulse makes this the pick of the first week. A bit of a rare treat for consistency here, and crowds are sometimes around, so expect a few others with the same idea.

Thursday (16 July) and Friday (17 July) are a bit of a mixed bag. Thursday has onshore wind in the morning, then more cross-on slop. Friday morning sees a glassy window with 4ft E swell, very low energy (338) – rideable but ordinary. That afternoon a strong SSW wind kicks up a chop, so no good.

Saturday (18 July) brings a shift. The morning has 5ft S swell, an 11-second period, and strong energy (988), but it’s cross-on with light rain. The afternoon gets interesting: 6ft S swell, a very long 14-second period, and strong energy (1340) with a light cross-shore. That’s some serious groundswell power. The long period will make it better for a point or reef setup, but at a sheltered spot like this, it might get a bit straight in the beachy sections. Still, worth a look if you’re keen.

Sunday (19 July) drops back to 3ft SSE swell with moderate energy (616), cross-shore but messy. Not much to write home about.

There’s a gap from Monday (20 July) through Tuesday morning (21 July) where the swell dips below 3ft or is just poor. Tuesday afternoon gets a 6ft ENE pulse but with a strong cross-shore chop – a kite surfer’s dream maybe, not so much for paddling.

Now here’s a real standout: Wednesday morning (22 July). Glassy conditions, 4ft SSW swell with a very long 16-second period, moderate-strong energy (856). That’s pure groundswell, long lines, and clean as a whistle. For a sheltered bay, this is the best on offer in the whole period. The long period at a beach break can be a little hit and miss for shape, but with glassy wind, it’ll be a joy. Afternoon stays okay with a gentle cross-shore but not as pristine.

Thursday (23 July) has onshore wind in the morning, but the afternoon brings 5ft SSW swell, 14-second period, strong energy (1029) with a light cross-onshore. Decent, but that morning session is the one.

From Friday (24 July) onward through to the 28th, it’s a lot of cross-shore or cross-on winds, with swell sizes bouncing from 4ft to 8ft. The 28th Tuesday afternoon has a 8ft ENE swell with an 8-second period – short period and onshore-leaning wind. That’s more of a closeout and messy. Not for the faint-hearted.

In summary, the standout moment is Wednesday 22 July morning – glassy, long-period groundswell, clean. If you’re chasing something in the first week, Wednesday 15 July afternoon is a close second. Everything else is marginal or just plain average. Crowds can show up here sometimes, so get in early.

Rusty.

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