Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at what’s on the table for Thompsons Bay over the next couple of weeks. I’ve gotta be straight with you – it’s a pretty rough run. There’s not a single standout session in the whole sixteen-day window. We’ve got a lot of days with poor surf quality, strong winds that are messing things up, and conditions that just aren’t coming together for a good paddle. It’s one of those stretches where the forecast is a big fat blank for any decent waves.

Right from Monday the 24th of August, it’s a non-starter. We’ve got a weak 2.6ft swell from the SSE, period a lacklustre 9 seconds, and a cross wind from the ENE at 9.3 mph. The water’s sitting at 71.1°, which is pretty normal for this time of year. The combined swell energy is a weak 198, and the report says it’s poor surf conditions. That sets the tone.

Tuesday the 25th has a slightly better combined energy of 493 in the morning, but the swell is still small at 3ft from the SSW, with a very long period of 16 seconds – that’s groundswell, which can make it tricky and straight at a beach setup like this. Wind is light cross-onshore, but the forecast is still marginal at best. Afternoon is more of the same, just a bit choppier.

Wednesday the 26th brings a bit more size in the afternoon, with 5.6ft from the S, a long period of 17 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1752, which is moderate. But the wind is onshore and it’s still rated as marginal. Not worth getting excited about.

From Thursday the 27th right through to the end of August, the swell gets bigger – up to 11.5ft on Saturday the 29th – but the wind is a mess. It’s all cross-shore from the NE, blowing at 21.7 to 28 mph, and the periods are short, around 8 seconds. That’s a recipe for lumpy, choppy, blown-out junk. The combined energy gets up into the strong range (up to 1754), but with that wind and short period, this is more of a kite-surfing show than anything you’d want to paddle into.

Early September rolls in and it’s just more of the same. The 1st of September has a slight improvement with a lighter cross wind and 4.9ft from the E, but the period is only 9 seconds and the combined energy is a modest 425. It’s still marginal. Then the wind swings to the SSW and gets into near gale force on the 3rd, with 34.2 mph winds. That’s just blown out.

The second week offers a bit more size, but no quality. On the 4th of September, we see 8.2ft from the S and 9.8ft from the SSE, with periods of 11 seconds and combined energy well over 2000. But the wind is strong cross-shore at 24.9 mph. At 9.8ft, that’s expert-only territory even in good conditions, and here the conditions are poor. The 5th and 6th of September have a little more promise with lighter winds and some cross-shore, but the swell is big (9.8ft) and the period drops back to 8 seconds, so it’s still not coming together. The last chance looks like the morning of the 8th of September, with 8.2ft from the ENE, period 9 seconds, and a light onshore wind. The combined energy is 1045, and it’s scored as marginal. It’s the best the whole forecast can offer, but that’s not saying much.

Honestly, for Thompsons Bay, this is a long stretch of poor options. If a break is fairly consistent, you’d hope for something, but the wind and swell angles just aren’t aligning. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d give it a miss.

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