Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here.

First up, Thompsons Bay. Honestly, it’s a pretty grim start to the outlook. The first decent surf we see isn’t until the 31st of July, which is a solid ten-day gap from the start of the period with nothing to get excited about. Most of the earlier days are plagued by onshore winds, choppy conditions, and marginal to poor surf quality. The swell energy is there at times—like on the 20th of July, we’ve got 6ft of SE swell with a solid 12-second period and a combined energy of 1140, which is a strong, punchy setup—but the wind is cross-on and the wave comment is marginal. It’s just not coming together. The water temperature is 73°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least it’s not cold.

The first real standout window starts on the 31st of July. Friday afternoon at Thompsons Bay turns glassy—zero wind, dead calm—with a 5ft easterly swell. The period is a short 8 seconds, so it’s more of a windswell, but with glassy conditions, it’ll be clean and fun for an intermediate. The combined energy is only 401, so it’s weak, but the lack of wind makes it rideable. That’s the best we get for a while.

Then, on the 4th of August, Tuesday morning, it gets interesting. We’ve got 8ft of SE groundswell with a 12-second period—that’s proper long-period energy, meaning well-shaped waves and longer lulls between sets. The wind is glassy, dead calm, and the wave comment is “expect very good surf conditions.” Combined energy is 1773, which is strong and powerful. This is the standout. But at 8ft, it’s big—this is for experienced surfers only. It’s a sheltered SE exposure, so the swell direction matches the optimum, and the break is fairly consistent. Crowds are possible here, so get out early.

The day before, on the 3rd of August, Monday morning, also looks promising with 10ft of SSE swell, a 12-second period, and a cross-offshore wind. The combined energy is 2911—very strong—but it’s a bit more raw. Still, clean conditions with that offshore wind make it a solid backup option for experts.

So, to wrap it up: the first two weeks are mostly a write-off for Thompsons Bay. The best surf on offer is the 4th of August, Tuesday morning, with 8ft of SE groundswell and glassy conditions. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. There’s nothing else worth paddling out for until then.

Rusty.

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