Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk Thompsons Bay. The next couple of weeks are a mixed bag, with a slow start and a few windows that could get the heart pumping if you play your cards right. The water’s sitting at a normal 71° for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days—Tuesday the 7th through Thursday the 9th—are a write-off. Tiny, weak, messy cross-shore junk. Nothing doing. Then Friday the 10th rolls in with a solid push of S swell, 7 ft on the morning, period 15 seconds, and the energy ramps up hard (2079). Problem is, it’s onshore from the SE, so it’s a bit lumpy. The afternoon gets even bigger—8 ft, 16-second groundswell, energy spiking to 3175—but still onshore, though only a light 3 mph. It’s marginal, but for a sheltered spot like this, that’s a lot of water moving. Not for beginners—over 8 ft is expert territory. Saturday the 11th drops a bit but stays onshore and messy. Sunday the 12th gets blown out by SW winds.

Then comes the real standout: Wednesday the 15th afternoon. The wind goes glassy, dead calm, and the swell is a solid 7 ft from the SSW, period 9 seconds. The energy is strong (1175), and the conditions are about as clean as it gets for this break. That’s the pick of the fortnight—if you can get out, it’ll be worth it. The swell direction isn’t the ideal SE, but when it’s glassy and holding 7 ft, you don’t complain.

After that, it goes downhill again. Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th are blown out with strong winds. Saturday the 18th has a little SSW groundswell but short period, marginal. Sunday the 19th sees another big S pulse (8 ft, 1379 energy) but cross-onshore and choppy. Monday the 20th has 8 ft S swell but fresh cross-winds. Then Tuesday the 21st is a bit lighter but still marginal.

Finally, Wednesday the 22nd morning brings a monster: 15 ft from the SSW, period 12 seconds, energy shooting up to 9967. That’s a serious swell, but it’s onshore from the SSE, and the score is still marginal. Only for the most experienced, and even then the wind might ruin it. The afternoon drops to 8 ft but gets choppy again.

So in short: the first week is mostly a waste, the one clean window is Wednesday the 15th afternoon, and the second week has some size but wind issues. If you’re willing to wait, the 15th is your best bet—glassy, solid, and clean. Otherwise, keep an eye on the long-range for the 22nd, but it’s a gamble.

Rusty.

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