Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’ve got one spot on the radar for the next couple of weeks, and to be honest, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Thompsons Bay is the only game in town, and it’s a sheltered spot, so it’s not going to be the first to pick up a big swell. The water is sitting at 72°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The next few days are looking rough. Wednesday the 22nd has a bit of swell, 4ft from the SE with a nice long 12-second period, moderate energy (738), but the wind is a cross-shore breeze. It’s just not clean enough to get excited about. That trend sticks around through Thursday and Friday, with the wind staying cross-onshore or just messy. Friday the 24th actually sees a big spike in swell—12ft from the south—but with a strong cross-onshore wind at 28 mph, it’s going to be a washing machine. That’s a big, powerful swell (energy at 1849), but the conditions are pure mayhem. For most of us, it’s a pass.

Saturday the 25th is a slight improvement. The swell drops to 6ft from the SSE, and the wind eases right back to a light breeze. It’s still cross-onshore, so you’ll have a bit of ripple on the face, but it’s the most promising we’ve seen. The energy is moderate (871), and it’s a manageable size. Not a standout, but if you’re desperate, it’s your best bet in the early window.

We then hit a real dry spell. Sunday through to the end of the month is mostly small, wind-affected, or just ugly. There’s a bit of a tease on Wednesday the 29th with a long-period SSW swell (15 seconds) and some energy (1053), but the wind is light and cross-onshore, so it’s marginal at best. The conditions are just not cooperating.

Now, there is a glimmer of hope on Friday the 31st of July. The wind finally swings cross-offshore from the NNE, and it’s light. The swell is small at 3ft, but the period is a very long 16 seconds, and the energy is moderate (529). The report says to expect good conditions, and for a sheltered spot like Thompsons Bay, that clean, glassy skin is a gift. It’s small, but it’ll be the best-looking waves in a long time.

Rolling into August, the first weekend (1st and 2nd) is small and pretty average. But then Monday the 3rd of August is where my heart starts beating a little faster. We’ve got a 10ft swell from the east, 10-second period, and the wind is light and cross-shore. The combined energy is a massive 3020 – that’s strong, powerful surf. The catch is that 10ft is in the expert-only zone, and at a beach break, a long period east swell like this can close out and be a handful. It’s a real beast. The wind holds light through the afternoon, so it’ll be less choppy than it could be, but that’s a lot of water moving.

The days following that, the 4th and 5th, keep the size up (8ft to 12ft) but the wind gets messy again. The best call for the whole outlook is probably that Monday the 3rd. It’s a big, powerful, clean-ish swell, but it’s for the experienced crew only. And as always, that’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it.

For the rest of us, the little clean window on the 31st of July is the one to circle. It’s small, but it’s your only real chance for a peaceful, clean session in the next couple of weeks.

Rusty.

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