Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The long-range forecast for Thompsons Bay is a tough one to swallow, I’m not gonna lie. We’re looking at a solid stretch of poor conditions and messy surf ahead. The good news? It won’t last forever, and there’s a tiny glimmer of hope out there for the patient ones.

Right off the bat, the water is sitting at 69°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year. Nothing crazy, but you’ll want the hood or a good thick chest zip.

We start with a blank run. Thursday the 10th through to Wednesday the 16th is basically a write-off. There’s swell, but it’s messy. Thursday afternoon is a cross-shore mess, and the wind is up. Friday gets a bit of a bump, but it’s cross-on and lumpy. The weekend brings smaller surf, but it’s choppy and cross-on. Monday the 14th is where it gets properly angry – a 10ft to 12ft ENE pulse with a near gale blowing. That’s a full-blown closeout situation, way too big and wild for a paddle. You’d be better off with a kite. Tuesday and Wednesday are still poor, though Tuesday afternoon does get flagged as “marginal.” Basically, it’s a lot of moving water, but none of it is doing anything user-friendly.

The energy levels through this period are moderate to strong, but with the winds and directions, it just doesn’t line up for our sheltered bay. We see a reading of 471 on Thursday, and it climbs to over 1077 and 1964 by Monday, which shows the ocean is working, but it’s all for nothing if it’s blown out.

Then on Thursday the 17th, it gets big and raw again, 12ft with a strong cross-shore. Another one for the kites. Friday the 18th looks a little better on the surface with light onshore wind, but there’s still very poor surf quality.

The one true standout, if you have the patience of a saint, is Tuesday the 22nd of September. The morning sees a small but clean swell, 3ft from the SE with a period of 11 seconds. The wind is a light cross-offshore breeze, which is a huge deal. It’s the first time we get real clean conditions. It’s small, not gonna blow your mind, but it’s the best on offer. The combined swell energy is a weak 264, so it’s not powerful, but it will be rideable. A morning session with your log or fish is the ticket. It’s not a day for a shortboard.

After that, it’s back to the poor conditions. Wednesday the 23rd has a bit more size at 7ft but it’s cross-off and clean early, but the period is short and the wind picks up. Thursday the 24th gets messy again, and Friday the 25th is back to cross-on choppy junk.

So, overall, it’s a grim outlook for the next two weeks. There’s only one window, Tuesday the 22nd, that even comes close. It’s a classic case of the ocean being full of energy but not lining it up for our sheltered shores. Keep an eye on the charts, because a 16-day forecast can always change, but as it stands, this bay is gonna be mostly for the kites and the windsurfers.

Rusty, out.

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