Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for Thompsons Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be honest with you – this is a rough stretch. The water temperature is sitting at 69°, which is just about normal for this time of year, so that’s not the problem. The problem is that for the first week and a half, we’re looking at a whole lot of nothing worth paddling out for. The wind is almost always cross-onshore or worse, and the wave energy is weak to moderate at best, with readings like 515 and 288 in the first few days. The swell is small, around 3 ft to 4 ft, and mostly from the east or southeast, which isn’t ideal for this sheltered spot that prefers a SE direction. Honestly, the first real surf we see doesn’t kick in until the afternoon of Thursday the 3rd of September, when a bit of ENE swell at 5 ft bumps up the energy to 526 – but it’s still marginal, with a cross-off wind that’s cleaning it up a bit. That’s your best window early on.

Then things get wild. From Friday the 4th through to Tuesday the 8th, we’re looking at a massive, messy, windy swell train. The combined energy jumps into the thousands – 1660, 5122, 5884, even 9663 on the morning of Monday the 7th – but the wind is howling from the south, often gale force, and the surf is blown out and lumpy. This is big, dangerous, and ugly. The swell hits 18 ft at times, with periods around 10 to 12 seconds, so it’s powerful but completely unsurfable unless you’re a total masochist. Honestly, for a beach-and-reef setup like this, it’s more of a kite surfer’s dream than a paddle surfer’s.

The real standout, if you can wait, is the afternoon of Thursday the 10th of September. The wind goes light and onshore from the ESE, the swell is 8 ft from the ESE with a solid 12-second period, and the energy is at 1581. The conditions are described as “marginal,” but with that light wind and a decent swell direction matching the optimum SE, it’s the cleanest and most promising window in the whole 16 days. That’s your best bet – but it’s still a long-range call, so keep an eye on it.

After that, Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th drop off fast, with smaller swell, shorter periods, and cross-onshore winds creeping back in. By Sunday the 13th, it’s back to weak, messy energy, and the 14th is a write-off with strong onshores and tiny, weak swell.

So, to sum it up: the first two weeks are mostly a bust. The only real highlight is the afternoon of Thursday the 10th of September – a clean, moderate-sized swell with light wind. Mark it down, but don’t bet the farm on it yet.

Rusty.

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