Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s not beat around the bush – we’ve got a tough stretch ahead for Thompsons Bay. The water temp is sitting right around average for the time of year at 71°F, so nothing weird there, but the surf is a different story.

We start off Saturday morning, July 11th, with a 6ft south swell. The period is a solid 13 seconds, so there’s some groundswell energy in the water, with combined energy hitting 1125 (moderate to strong). The problem is the wind is cross from the SSW at 9 mph, putting a bit of a chop on it. The models are calling this marginal at best, and honestly, it’s not looking like the kind of day you’d rush out for. The swell is too big for beginners and the conditions aren't clean enough to get excited about.

Sunday the 12th drops off to 5ft, but the wind stays cross-onshore. Same story. The energy drops to 649 (moderate), but the quality is poor. Monday and Tuesday see the swell drop further and the wind flips around, but it’s still cross or cross-on. A few 5ft to 6ft bumps show up but the period drops to 8 or 9 seconds – short-period windswell that won’t hold much shape. Combined energy is in the 400-600 range (weak to moderate). The surf is inconsistent and messy.

Now, here’s the only real highlight in the whole 16 days. It’s a long way off, but keep an eye on Saturday, July 18th. We’ve got a 8ft south swell rolling in, with a very long 17-second period. The combined energy jumps to a massive 4471 (very strong). This is a serious groundswell – the kind that will have power but will be tricky on a beach break. It’s going to want a point or reef to really shine. The wind is cross-onshore though, at 12 mph, which is a real shame. The models are still calling it poor for paddle surfing because of the chop. If the wind swings offshore, this could be the standout, but as it stands, it’s going to be a lumpy, powerful mess, and only for experts. The 8ft size is expert territory.

Sunday the 19th has a 7ft south swell (13 seconds, 1556 energy) but again, cross-shore wind at 12 mph. More of the same frustration. Monday the 20th sees a 7ft northeast swell, but the period is a short 7 seconds – weak, junky, and disorganized.

The second week is a write-off. The swell drops below 3ft, the period goes long again (15-18 seconds) but with no energy to back it up. The combined energy falls to the 200-400 range (weak). The wind stays annoying. By Sunday the 26th, we’re left with a 3ft south-southwest swell at 18 seconds, but cross-shore wind at 15 mph. It’s a total dud.

Honestly, the best bet in this whole outlook is the Saturday morning of July 18th if you’re an expert and you don’t mind the wind. For everyone else, you’re looking at a long stretch of poor to marginal surf. The area is not producing anything consistent, and with the wind being the main problem, a blank run like this is pretty normal for the area when the conditions don't align. Keep an eye on the wind forecasts, because that’s the only thing that could save it.

Rusty.

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