Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks. Rusty here. Let’s get into what Thompsons Bay is serving up for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a frustrating forecast. There’s swell on the charts, but for most of it, the wind is going to be your enemy. You’re gonna have to be a hawk and pick the very best windows.

Starting off this Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th, it’s flat and ugly. Swell is tiny, around 2 to 3 feet from the east and later south-southwest, but with a choppy cross-onshore wind making it a waste of time. Not your day.

Monday the 14th brings a big spike in size, with waves jumping to 10 to 13 feet from the east-northeast. That is a *lot* of water moving, with massive energy readings. But it comes with a near gale-force wind that will be cross-shore, creating a right mess. That’s way over 8 feet, so only for experts, and even then, with that wind, it’s not really a surf zone. It’s more of a kite-surfing show.

Now, Tuesday the 15th and Wednesday the 16th calm down a bit. The swell drops to 6 to 7 feet from the east, with periods around 9 to 10 seconds. The wind goes light, which is good, but it’s still a cross-onshore direction. It’s not perfect, but it’s rideable and might be your best bet for a paddle in the middle of the week. The crowd factor here is something to keep in mind.

Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th see the wind shift, bringing some rain. The size stays up (5 to 10 feet), but it’s lumpy and messy again. The lightest wind window might be Friday the 18th, when the breeze drops to almost nothing and the swell is around 8 feet from the south. Still, the period is short, so the shape won't be top tier.

The one day that really stands out is Sunday the 20th. Swell drops to a clean 4 feet from the southeast. But the story is the wind: it’s off the land—offshore from the north-northwest. For a sheltered spot like Thompsons Bay, that is the golden key. The forecast actually calls for "good surf conditions". That’s your session. It’s not huge, but it’ll be clean and fun.

After the 20th, it’s a long slog. From the 21st through the 27th, the wind is back onshore or cross-shore, and the swell stays between 5 and 10 feet but with a lumpy, choppy texture. There’s a little hope on the 25th with a 10-foot east-northeast swell and gentler wind, but the period is short (8 seconds), which means a weak, fat wave.

One last thing: the water temperature is about 68°F right now, which is a little cooler than what’s normal for September around here. So bring a good wetsuit.

Rusty, out.

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