Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking at Thompsons Bay.

Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – the start of this outlook is a bit of a slow grind. There’s no real stand-out surf for the first few days, but we’ve got a couple of windows where the conditions line up alright. The water’s sitting at 71°, which is bang on average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real chance to get wet is Thursday morning, the 16th of July. We’ve got a 5ft easterly swell pushing in, and the wind is glassy. That’s a major positive – clean, smooth conditions. The wave energy is moderate (538), and with a 10-second period, it’s a solid, workable wave. It’s not going to blow your mind, but it’ll be fun on a log or a mid-length. Just be aware that on a Thursday, the crowds are *sometimes* an issue here, so you might have a few others with the same idea.

Things get a bit more interesting on Sunday the 19th. The afternoon session looks like the pick of the week. The swell shifts to a 5ft south swell with a 12-second period, coming from the south-west. The wind turns cross-offshore, keeping the faces clean. The combined energy is strong (797), and it’s a proper groundswell – longer period, more punch, and better shaped waves. This is the best on offer in the first week. If you can get out there Sunday arvo, do it.

Now, we hit a bit of a flat spell or poor conditions from Monday the 20th right through to Wednesday the 22nd. The wind gets messy, and the swell drops. It’s not worth paddling out.

Then, on Wednesday the 22nd of July, we get a big pulse. The morning sees a 7ft south-southwest swell with a 14-second period. That’s a serious groundswell, and the energy is very strong (2108). But here’s the catch – the wind is cross-shore and a bit lumpy, which messes with the quality. It’s a bit of a gamble. The afternoon, however, cleans right up. The wind goes light and cross-offshore, and the swell drops to a still solid 5ft. The energy is still strong (1075). This is your standout for the whole outlook. That’s a proper, powerful wave with clean faces. It’s a long-period swell, which means it’s going to be better if you’re surfing a point or a reef – it might break a bit straight on a beachie, but the quality makes up for it. This is a Thursday, so you’ll have a chance to get some good ones.

After that, from Friday the 24th onward, the wind gets nasty. Strong onshore breezes and choppy, lumpy conditions take over. The swell hangs around, but the quality is poor. It’s a write-off for paddle surfing. Honestly, with that onshore wind and the beach setup, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than anything else.

So, to wrap it up: the best windows are Thursday morning the 16th for a clean, mellow session, and then Wednesday afternoon the 22nd for the real meat of the forecast. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

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