Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Thompsons Bay.

Straight up, this is a tough run. For the first few days, there’s not much to get excited about. The surf is small and the wind is just a mess. Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st, we’ve got a sloppy 3ft to 5ft east swell, but with a cross-onshore wind that’s got it all lumpy and chopped. Not worth paddling out. The water temp is about 69° – pretty normal for this time of year, so that’s not the issue, it’s just the conditions are all wrong.

Tuesday the 1st of September through Thursday the 3rd, the swell stays small, around 3ft to 5ft, and the wind stays messy. The combined energy is weak to moderate (around 241 to 607), so you’re not getting any real punch. There’s a slight glimmer on Thursday morning with a cross-offshore wind from the NNE and clean conditions, but the swell is only 5ft from the ENE with a short period of 8 seconds – it’s a bit weak and won’t hold up well.

Then things get weird. Thursday afternoon the 3rd, the swell jumps to 10ft from the ENE, but the wind howls from the NE at 25 mph, making it a total cross-shore mess with strong cross-chop. That’s a big energy reading (1449), but it’s unsurfable. Friday the 4th stays big and bumpy, with 7ft to 8ft southerly swell and cross-shore winds. Still not clean.

The real standout – and I mean the *only* one worth a look – is Saturday the 6th of September. The swell drops to a more manageable 10ft to 12ft from the SE, and the wind goes light and cross-shore, with a gentle breeze. The combined energy is massive (2776 to 4496), so there’s real power behind it. This is a solid, chunky southwest swell with a period around 10 seconds. It’s still a bit cross-shore, but the wind is mild enough that the chop won’t ruin it. This is for experienced surfers only – anything over 8ft is for the experts. The break is sheltered and fairly consistent, but it’s a beach setup, so that long period swell might break a bit straight. Still, this is the best you’ll get.

After that, the rest of the 16 days is a story of poor conditions. The swell stays around 3ft to 8ft, but the wind is either cross-on or strong cross-shore, and the energy readings are moderate to strong (around 500 to 1258). The week of the 7th to the 14th of September is a write-off – rain, thunderstorms, and messy winds. There’s a bit of a swell on the 10th and 11th, but the wind is light and cross-shore, so it’s still marginal. The 14th has a 8ft south-east swell, but the wind is 25 mph – that’s a kite-surfing day, not a paddle day.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a dud. The only real stand-out is Saturday the 6th of September, with a big, powerful swell and manageable wind. If you’re an expert, that’s your window. Otherwise, it’s a long wait for nothing.

Rusty.

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