Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the table for Thompsons Bay over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be honest, the first week is a tough one to love. We’ve got a lot of energy in the water, but the wind is just not playing ball today.

The surf shows up right off the bat on Monday morning, the 27th of July. You’re looking at a 5 ft NE swell, but it’s a short, weak period of just 6 seconds and the combined energy is only reading 532 (moderate). The wind is a light offshore from the SE, which is a nice touch, but the setup is called “marginal” and the score is low. It’s a bit of a tease.

From Monday afternoon all the way through to the end of July, the conditions are a write-off. The wind is consistently cross or cross-on from the SSW, with speeds from 9 mph up to a windy 22 mph. The swell builds, hitting 8 ft on Thursday the 30th, but it’s a short-period S-SSE swell with a strong cross-shore chop. The energy is huge (over 1000 on the 30th), but it’s all for nothing with that wind. That 8 ft is expert-only territory anyway, and with the wind ruining it, it’s a hard pass.

The first week of August is pretty much a write-off too. The first couple of days of August are still messy with onshore winds and lumpy conditions. The 2nd of August (Sunday) shows a slight improvement, with a 7 ft ESE swell and light cross-shore winds, but the wave comment is still “marginal”. The afternoon of the 2nd pushes up to 8 ft with a much-longer 11-second period from the E, and the energy spikes to 1419 (strong), but it’s still a marginal call. The 3rd of August (Monday) is similar, with E swells around 7-8 ft and a 10-second period, with light ENE winds, but still not good enough to get a proper score.

The standout window, if you can call it that, is the 2nd and 3rd of August. The swell direction (E) is the opposite of the optimum (SE) for this sheltered spot, so the quality is questionable. The water temperature is 72°F, which is about average for the time of year, with an anomaly of just 1°F. Not a big deal.

After the 3rd, it’s back to poor conditions. The wind picks up again on the 4th, and the swell drops. The second week is a long stretch of nothing special. The 7th of August (Friday) has a tiny 2 ft SSW groundswell with a 16-second period, which sounds great in theory, but the wind is onshore or cross-on, and the energy is low. The 9th has a 8 ft S swell with a short 7-second period, but the wind is a strong 25 mph cross-shore, making it a mess. That’s more for the kite surfers than us.

The 11th of August (Tuesday) is the last gasp, with a 4 ft S swell at 15 seconds, but a strong 28 mph cross-shore wind kills it.

So, the honest truth is we’ve got a pretty grim 16 days ahead. The first few days are just a battle against the wind, and the second week is a mix of small, weak swells and strong winds. There’s no real standout session. The best bet is to keep an eye on the 2nd and 3rd of August, but even then, it’s a gamble. Sometimes the forecasts change, so don’t lose hope completely.

Rusty.

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