Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you—this stretch is a tough one. Over the next 16 days, Thompsons Bay is pretty much a write-off for decent waves. There’s no standout session in the whole window, and most of the time the wind is just ruining it. The few moments where the swell isn’t horrible get trashed by cross-shore or cross-onshore breezes, and when the wind does ease up, it’s often glassy but the surf is ordinary at best. That’s the reality here.

Starting off on Wednesday 9 September, it’s already messy. The swell is 6 ft from the ENE with a short 7-second period, but a 25 km/h NE cross-wind chops it up—poor conditions. Thursday 10 September and Friday 11 September don’t get any better; Thursday has similar 6 ft to 7 ft ENE swell with cross-winds, and Friday drops to 3 ft to 4 ft but picks up a cross-onshore breeze from the SSW, so it’s lumpy and choppy.

The weekend into the following week stays grim. Saturday 12 September has tiny 3 ft to 3 ft E swell, cross-onshore wind, and weak energy (182–192). Sunday 13 September morning has a long-period 18-second SSW groundswell, but it’s only 2 ft and cross-onshore—hardly worth a paddle. That afternoon, the wind turns onshore from the SE with a 7 ft ENE swell, but it’s marginal, and the conditions are questionable.

Monday 14 September gets ugly: a 10 ft to 12 ft ENE swell with a 7–8 second period, but 45–55 km/h NE cross-winds make it a full-on mess—this is kite-surf territory, not paddle surfing. The combined swell energy shoots up to 1082 to 1853, but with that wind, you wouldn’t want to be out there.

Tuesday 15 September afternoon is the only flicker of hope. The swell drops to 5 ft from the E with an 8-second period, and the wind goes glassy (5 km/h SSE). The wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” so it’s clean but uninspiring. That’s your best shot, but it’s a weak one.

From Wednesday 16 September onward, it’s back to poor surf with cross-onshore winds and messy conditions. Swell sizes bounce between 5 ft and 12 ft, but the wind never plays ball—strong cross-shore or fresh cross-onshore keeps it lumpy and choppy. By the second week, there’s a marginal moment on Saturday 19 September with 8 ft SE swell (12-second period) and light onshore wind, but it’s still only a 1 out of 10. After that, it’s more of the same: big swell, poor wind, and no quality.

The water temp is 69°F with a -0.8° anomaly—pretty average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

In short, don’t get your hopes up. If you’re desperate, the glassy window on Tuesday 15 September afternoon might let you float around on some average 5 ft waves, but there’s no real standout here.

Rusty.

Read more