Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get straight into it. The long-range models are showing me a pretty bleak picture for Thompsons Bay over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, if you’re looking for a clean, rippable wave, you’re going to be waiting a while. We’ve got a whole lot of wind and swell but none of it lining up right for this spot. It’s a sheltered setup, and we’re paying for it with every bit of cross-shore and onshore junk that blows through.

To be real with you, the first few days are a total write-off. Monday and Tuesday of this week are looking poor, with light to gentle breezes messing up an already weak, short-period swell. The energy is weak, sitting around 295 to 298 on Monday, dropping to the 189 to 228 range on Tuesday. It’s cross-shore, it’s lumpy, and there’s just no push to it. Don’t even bother with your board, it’s not worth the paddle out.

Wednesday kicks up a bit of a longer period swell, 15 seconds, but the wind goes fresh and cross-onshore. The energy jumps to 417 and 460, but the quality is still poor. You’re just getting a lumpy, messy ocean with no shape to it. Same story Thursday – the swell gets a bit more size, but it’s accompanied by a fresh cross-shore wind and that makes it all chop. The energy is building, hitting 526 in the morning, but this is not surfable for a paddleboarder.

Then Friday, the swell really starts to fill in. We’re seeing 10ft on the afternoon, but it’s coming with rain and a fresh cross-onshore wind. The energy spikes to 2723, but again, the quality is brutal. This is when you start thinking the setup might be more interesting for a kite surfer than anyone with a paddle. The ocean’s got power, but it’s just a washing machine.

Saturday, September 5th, is the first time we see a slight chance, and it’s a marginal one. The swell is still big, 10ft in the morning, and the wind finally drops to a light breeze. The energy is a solid 2324. It’s still onshore, but clean enough that you might find some shelter. The break is fairly consistent, but the direction is all wrong – the optimum is from the southeast, and we’re seeing a more southerly angle. It’s a low percentage day, a 3 out of 10 at best, and only for the experienced crew who know the bank.

After that, it’s back to pain. Sunday and Monday of the second week are just big, messy, and blown out. We’re talking 15ft to 16ft of southerly swell with strong onshore winds. Energy readings are massive, hitting 9129 and 10180, but all that power is just going to close out the beach and make it dangerous. This is expert-only, and even then, it’s probably not happening. The period on Monday hits 14 seconds, but the wind is just too strong.

We finally get a bit of a lull on Tuesday the 8th, with the swell backing down to 12ft, and the wind turning more cross-shore. But it’s still lumpy and rainy. The energy is still high, around 4000, but it’s not a surfable mess.

The week after, the 9th and 10th, the swell drops to a more manageable 13ft and 8ft, but the wind is just constantly on it. The mornings have a moderate cross-shore blow, the afternoons go cross-onshore. The period is long, 14 and 12 seconds, which could be good for a point break, but for a beach, it's just going to be walled up. The scores are poor to marginal at best, and you’d have to be desperate to paddle out.

Then, from the 11th onwards, it starts to fade. The energy drops back to the low hundreds and the swell shrinks to around 3ft to 5ft. There’s a southeast windswell mixed in with a shorter period, but it’s just not generating any power. You’ll see a day on the 13th with a bit of size and light wind, but the period is a weak 7 seconds. It’s another false dawn.

The water temp is sitting at around 69°, which is just about normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing while you’re sitting there waiting for something that’s not coming.

So, what’s the call? The only real standout, if you can even call it that, is the Saturday morning on the 5th. It’s the only time in the whole 16 days where the wind is light enough and the swell has some size. Keep your expectations low, and if you’re not an expert, stay on the sand.

There’s a serious gap in any kind of quality surf from now until that Saturday, and then it’s a whole heap of nothing until the window closes. This is a stretch where the ocean is just full of energy, but none of it is focused for this break. It’ll turn around eventually – it always does.

-Rusty

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