Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Thompsons Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’m looking at this forecast and it’s a real mixed bag. The first week is a struggle, with a lot of cross-onshore wind and chop ruining the shape. The swell energy is mostly moderate, getting into the low hundreds (327) up to the mid hundreds (851), but the wind is just killing it. The water is sitting at 71°F right now, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real chance to get wet looks like Saturday morning, the 22nd of August. We’ve got a light offshore wind from the NNW, cleaning up a small 2ft swell from the south. The period is a long 13 seconds, so there’s some proper groundswell energy (305), but it’s small. It’s surfable, but only just. For a sheltered spot like Thompsons Bay, that south swell needs to wrap in just right, and the long period might make it a bit too straight for the beach, but with glassy conditions, it’s the best we’ve seen.

After that, it gets messy again until Monday afternoon, the 24th of August. That afternoon session is a standout for the near term. The wind goes glassy, with a light easterly breeze at just 3 mph. The swell is 4ft from the south, with a 12-second period (490 energy). It’s not huge, but glassy conditions at a sheltered spot like this mean clean, peeling waves. This is the one to circle if you can get out of work.

The second week gets interesting, but it’s a bit of a gamble. Thursday afternoon, the 27th of August, sees a solid 10ft swell from the ENE, but the period is a short 8 seconds (1854 energy – that’s strong energy). That’s a lot of water moving, but short period windswell will be lumpy and hard to handle, especially at over 8ft – that’s expert-only territory. The wind is light cross-shore, so it won’t be a total mess, but it’s gonna be a handful.

The real eyes-light-up moment comes Friday the 28th of August. We’ve got a 5ft swell from the SSE, with a 14-second period. That’s proper groundswell, and the energy is massive (1527). The wind is a gentle cross-shore from the NE, so the waves will have some shape. For a break that’s exposed to that south-east direction, this could be the pick of the entire 16 days – long lines, solid push, and clean enough. Just keep in mind, that long period groundswell can be a bit tricky at a beach break, but the quality of the swell is undeniable.

The rest of the run into the first few days of September is a bit of a write-off. The wind stays on the cross-shore, and the swell hangs around 5ft to 8ft, but the periods drop to 6-8 seconds, and the energy is just messy. Kite surfers might have a field day, but for paddle surfing, it’s a pass.

Best bets: Monday afternoon the 24th for a clean, glassy session, and Friday the 28th of August for the biggest, most powerful groundswell of the window. The Friday session is the real standout but it’s a week away, so keep your fingers crossed the forecast holds.

Rusty.

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