Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Thompsons Bay is serving up over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a bit of a flat and messy run for Thompsons Bay for most of the period. The spot is sheltered, so it takes a specific swell direction to really light up, and we just aren’t getting that consistently. The water temp is sitting at 72°F, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

We kick off on Wednesday, the 8th of July, and it’s pretty gutless. Tiny 1ft to 1ft SSW swells with a long period of 14 seconds, but the wind is cross-shore and the energy is weak (92-130). It’s a no-go for a proper surf – you’d be fighting for nothing.

Thursday the 9th sees a bit more push in the morning, 2ft SSW swell at 15 seconds, but the cross-onshore wind has it messy. By the afternoon, the swell bumps up to 5ft from the south with 14 seconds, and the energy jumps to 1038, so there’s some weight there. But the wind is still cross-onshore and light, making for marginal conditions. It’s surfable if you’re desperate, but it’s not pretty.

Friday the 10th is the real tease. The morning shows a solid 8ft south swell with a 15-second period – that’s proper groundswell, and the energy is pumping at 2474. But the cross-onshore wind has it chopped and messy. This is one for the experienced crew only, as 8ft is pushing into expert territory, and the wind is ruining what could be a great wave. The afternoon doesn’t improve, with the wind picking up to 12 mph and the waves staying lumpy.

Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th drop back down. Saturday morning has 6ft south swell at 13 seconds, but again, cross-onshore wind. The energy is still moderate (1011), but the quality is marginal at best. By Sunday, we’re down to 4ft and the wind is light but still cross-onshore. Not worth getting wet for.

Then we hit a real dead zone. From Monday the 13th through to Wednesday the 22nd, it’s a solid stretch of poor surf. The swell is small, the wind is either cross or cross-onshore, and there are a few days where it’s blowing a fresh breeze, making for lumpy, choppy conditions. The combined energy drops off into the low hundreds mostly, and it’s just not doing anything interesting. You’re looking at a week and a half of flat, messy water. On Thursday the 16th there is a brief moment where the wind goes light and onshore, with 5ft east swell, but the period is only 10 seconds and the quality is marginal – it’s a maybe for a dawn paddle, but nothing to write home about.

The one glimmer in this whole outlook lands on Monday the 20th of July. The morning shows a 3ft south swell, but with a very long 15-second period, and the wind is a light cross-offshore from the NNE at 19 mph. The energy is moderate at 1099, and the report says it’s clean. This is the standout. For a sheltered spot like Thompsons Bay, a clean, glassy morning with a long-period south swell is about as good as it gets. But this is a long-range call, so treat it with a pinch of salt. It’s a promising little window, but don’t bank your week on it.

After that, it’s back to poor conditions with strong winds and lumpy seas through to the 23rd of July. Thursday the 23rd morning has a 4ft SSW swell at 13 seconds with a light cross-shore breeze, but the energy is moderate (998) and the quality is only marginal. It’s a maybe if you’re keen, but it’s not a standout.

So, the honest truth: this is a tough forecast for Thompsons Bay. The only real window to consider is Monday morning, the 20th, if that cross-offshore holds. The rest is a write-off. If you’re a beginner, stay out of it when it gets over 5ft, and for the few days it hits 8ft, that’s expert-only territory.

Rusty.

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