Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's have a look at what's coming up for Thompsons Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I've got to be straight with you — the forecast is a bit of a mixed bag, and it's going to test your patience. The water temp is sitting at 71°, which is about average for this time of year, so you won't be needing a thick wetsuit.

We've got a long wait ahead. The first few days are a write-off. Monday the 6th and Tuesday the 7th are flat out poor, with weak, messy, cross-shore winds and small, weak swell. Wednesday the 8th afternoon shows a tiny glimmer of life with a clean, cross-off breeze and a 1ft swell from the SW, but it's very ordinary and not worth paddling out for.

The real action, and the only true standout in this whole outlook, is late on Friday the 10th into the weekend. On Friday afternoon, we see a 8ft S swell with a very long period of 15 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 2318 (moderate to strong). Winds go light onshore, and the swell is pumping. This is a proper groundswell — long period, deep water energy. Just remember, that long period means it'll be a bit walled up and straight at a beach break, so it's better suited to the points or reefs. At 8ft, it's getting into expert territory, so beginners should stay out of the water. Saturday the 11th morning still has size at 5ft from the S, but the wind swings cross-on and it loses its magic.

After that, the consistency drops off. There's another pulse of swell on Monday the 13th, with an 8ft S swell at 14 seconds and a huge combined energy of 4059 (very strong), but the wind is onshore and the conditions are marginal. It's a big, powerful, messy wave. For the experts, there might be a session, but it won't be clean.

The rest of the second week is a struggle. We see more size on Wednesday the 15th — 12ft from the S — but it's a jumbled, cross-wind mess. By Friday the 17th, the swell drops and the wind comes back cross. Honestly, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing through much of this period.

So, to sum it up: the best bet by a country mile is Friday the 10th afternoon. It's a big, long-period S swell with light winds. It's a proper power session for the experienced crew. Everything else is a gamble on clean conditions.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on the wind shifts.

Rusty.

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