Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about the surf ahead for Thompsons Bay.

First thing you need to know: the water temp is about average for the time of year, so nothing weird going on there. The outlook is a long grind, and honestly, this is a stretch of predominantly poor conditions, with a very short window of hope. The first two weeks are mostly a write-off due to messy winds and average-sized, lumpy swells. There’s a big gap of about 4 days from the start with no decent surf recommendations, and then we’ve got a couple of standouts right in the middle.

It kicks off with a really small, long-period swell on Saturday 8 August morning, 1 ft from the SSW with a period of 17 seconds, but a moderate cross-breeze (12 mph) from the NE has it choppy. That’s a no-go. The afternoon sees a jump to 6 ft from the ENE, but the period plummets to 6 seconds and the wind gets fresh cross-shore at 19 mph – messy. Sunday 9 August is similar: 3 ft from the ENE on Sunday morning with a gentle cross-onshore breeze, and the afternoon brings 2 ft from the SSW, but still lumpy. Monday 10 August is a real beast – 12 ft from the S with a period of 9 seconds, but the wind is strong cross-onshore at 28 mph, making it a total mess. The combined wave energy is huge (2298), but it’s not for paddling; this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Tuesday 11 August stays big (8 ft, SSE) with strong cross-shore wind, and Wednesday 12 August is similar (10 ft, SE) with moderate cross-onshore wind. All poor.

Now, the standout. On Thursday 13 August, the wind finally drops. Morning brings a clean 6 ft swell from the ESE (9-second period) with a light cross-offshore breeze from the WSW at just 3 mph. The combined wave energy is moderate (698). Then the afternoon gets even better: glassy conditions, 5 ft from the ESE (8-second period), with a light WNW breeze. This is the best on offer – clean, glassy surf, and the crowd profile says it’s *sometimes* busy, so expect company. It’s a sheltered spot, so the ESE swell is working well for the break. That’s the one to aim for.

After that, it’s back to poor. Friday 14 August and Saturday 15 August are cross-choppy with NE winds. Sunday 16 August gets fresh cross-onshore winds and lumpy 6 ft swell. The whole second week is a repeat of average-sized swell (5 ft to 7 ft) with persistent cross-shore winds from the NE, and a few onshore days. The combined energy stays moderate (between 250 and 505). A bit of marginal surf on Monday 17 August morning (3 ft, E, 11-second period) but the light cross-onshore breeze ruins it. Saturday 22 August afternoon sees a big jump to 10 ft from the S, but again, poor conditions due to cross-onshore wind. The final day, Sunday 23 August, has a 8 ft swell from the S, but it’s cross-choppy.

Bottom line: if you can get out on Thursday 13 August, you’ll cop some clean, glassy waves. The rest of the 16-day window is a battle with the wind. Expect a lot of days with no real recommendation.

Rusty

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