Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Yo, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Thompsons Bay. This is a sheltered, intermediate spot, fairly consistent, and it’s got some action in the next 16 days.

First up, we’ve got a killer window to start. Sunday morning, July 12th is the best of the whole run. Glassy conditions, wind out of the south at just 3 mph, and a clean 5 ft swell from the south with a 12-second period. That’s a groundswell with proper energy—combined energy at 703 (moderate)—and it’s going to be clean as a whistle. Water temp is about average for this time of year. Sunday afternoon is similar, just a touch smaller at 4 ft, still glassy, still great. That’s the standout.

Monday, July 13th, the wind shifts and the quality drops. Morning has a 6 ft swell from the ESE, but it’s a short-period 8-second windswell, and the cross-shore wind at 9 mph will leave it lumpy. Afternoon gets worse with 12 mph winds and poor conditions. Not one to plan for.

Tuesday July 14th through Thursday July 16th is a stretch of marginal surf. Swell heights run from 5 ft to 6 ft, but the period is still short (8-10 seconds), and the wind is cross or cross-on. Energy is moderate (between 442 and 847), but it’s not going to be clean. The morning of the 14th might be the best of a mediocre bunch with light winds.

Friday July 17th is a write-off. Strong cross-onshore winds and messy, choppy conditions. Swell hits 6 ft in the afternoon, but it’s a 6-second period windswell with poor energy—just 494. Hard pass.

Then we get a spike. Saturday July 18th brings a big southerly groundswell. Morning sees 8 ft swell at 16 seconds, afternoon is 8 ft at 15 seconds. That’s a very long period, powerful swell, with combined energy jumping to 3679 (strong) in the morning and 2564 (strong) in the afternoon. This is a lot of water moving. The problem is the wind is light cross-onshore, and at this size, it’s really only for experienced surfers. The long period means it’ll be lining up cleanly at this sheltered bay, but it’s a serious paddle. Crowds are “sometimes” here, so you might have some company. This is another standout, but only if you’ve got the chops.

Sunday July 19th through Tuesday July 22nd is a rough patch. Strong winds, lumpy chop, and poor surf quality. Swell drops off and the period gets short again. The 22nd has a weird mix—morning has 8 ft at 8 seconds with fresh cross-shore winds, just ugly. Afternoon drops to 2 ft but with a 16-second period, but the wind is howling at 25 mph. No bueno.

Wednesday July 23rd through Friday July 25th is a long stretch of marginal to poor surf. Swell is small, mostly under 5 ft, and the wind is cross-on or cross. The periods are long (14-18 seconds), which is nice for shape, but the energy is moderate and the wind is never quite right. The 23rd afternoon has a 3 ft, 18-second swell—pretty but tiny.

Saturday July 26th has a 6 ft swell from the SSW at 16 seconds with moderate cross-onshore wind. Energy is strong (1826), but the wind is chopping it up. Sunday afternoon the 26th sees a 5 ft, 16-second swell with onshore wind, still not pristine.

Then, the capper. Monday morning, July 27th is glassy again. Wind out of the east at 3 mph, clean as can be. The swell is 5 ft from the south with a 16-second period, combined energy of 1411 (strong). This is a proper groundswell, and the forecast says “very good surf conditions.” This could be a gem, but it’s a full 15 days out, so keep an eye on it—long-range forecasts can change. If it holds, it’s a standout.

So, the two true standouts are Sunday July 12th (clean, glassy, 5 ft south swell) and Saturday July 18th (big, powerful 8 ft south groundswell for experts). The 27th is a promising maybe.

Rusty out.

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