Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be honest, looking at the next sixteen days for Thompsons Bay, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The water’s currently sitting at a crisp 68°, which is a touch cooler than we’d usually expect for this time of year, about 3° off the mark. Early on, there’s some moderate-sized swell around, but the winds are just not playing ball. We get a few small windows of something clean, but a lot of this period is going to be blown out and messy.

The first real chance for a wave comes on Thursday, September 3rd, with a morning session at Thompsons Bay. We’ve got a small, clean 2ft swell from the SSW, and a light NW cross-offshore breeze keeps things looking tidy. The energy is moderate at 436, but the report flags it as marginal, so keep your expectations in check.

That’s about as good as it gets for a while. From Thursday afternoon all the way through the weekend and into the middle of the next week, we’re looking at a long run of poor conditions. The wind is howling, mostly cross or cross-onshore, and the waves are choppy and messy. We see a big 12ft S swell on Friday afternoon with a strong breeze, but it’s unsurfable. There’s a slight glimmer on Saturday, September 5th, with a chest-high 8ft SSE swell and a lighter wind, but it’s still cross-onshore, leaving it choppy.

The week that follows is more of the same. We’ve got a huge long-period south swell arriving on Monday, September 7th, with a period of 17 seconds and a massive combined energy reading of 2941, but that fresh cross-shore wind and lumpy chop ruin it. The same goes for the following week.

The only real standout in this entire run lands on Monday, September 14th. The swell jumps to a solid 10ft from the S with a very long 15-second period, and a combined energy of 3307, which is strong. The wind is light and cross-shore, meaning it should be clean. This is big, powerful groundswell – over 8ft, so it’s strictly for experienced surfers only. That long period will make it line up and unload, and it’s going to be best out at the points and reefs rather than just the beach, as it’ll have a lot of energy. The afternoon gets a bit windier, but the morning looks promising. It's far out, so the forecast could shift, but right now that’s the one to circle.

The last few days of the outlook drop back into poor, windy conditions with strong cross-shore breezes and messy wave faces. The long gap of unrideable surf in between means you’ll have to be patient.

Rusty

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