Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, taking a look at what we've got for Thompsons Bay over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it's a real mixed bag and mostly a frustrating watch. The water temp is sitting at about 71°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, nothing unusual there. The main issue is the wind; it just won’t play nice for most of the run.

We kick off on Friday the 21st, and it’s a bit of a tease. There’s a 4ft south swell, but the easterly cross-onshore breeze is messing it up. The swell energy is moderate at 419, but it’s not worth getting wet for.

The best window in the whole 16-day outlook is actually on Saturday the 22nd in the afternoon. The wind swings northerly, going cross-offshore and clean. The swell drops a touch to 3ft from the SSW, but the energy jumps up to a solid 923 and the period is a nice 15 seconds – that's proper groundswell. For a sheltered spot like this, that combination of glassy conditions and a clean south swell is about as good as it gets. You could paddle out and find some fun lines.

After that tiny window, it mostly turns into a write-off. Sunday the 23rd pumps up to 8ft, but it’s howling southerly cross-on. That’s too much wind for the size, making it a lumpy mess. Monday the 24th is flat and choppy.

There’s a few more marginal moments, like the afternoon of Tuesday the 26th with a solid 6ft south swell and a very long 17-second period. The energy is strong at 1631, and the wind is light and onshore – but that could clean up a bit. It’s a gamble. Then the wind just goes nuts from the 27th onwards, with strong to near-gale cross-shore breezes accompanying some very big, messy swell (over 8ft and over 10ft at times). That’s expert-only territory, and with that wind, it’s not even a good look for experts unless you’re on a tow-in sled, but more realistically, that setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

There’s a gap of terrible conditions from the 23rd all the way through to the end of the first week of September. The forecast for the first week of September is bleak – small, wind-chopped slop. The only other flicker is the afternoon of Sunday the 30th of August. It’s a big 12ft south swell with only a light cross-onshore breeze, but the period is a short 9 seconds and the wind state is still lumpy. Don't count on it.

So, in short: mark your calendar for the afternoon of Saturday the 22nd for Thompsons Bay. That’s your one true standout. Everything else is either blown out, too big for the conditions, or flat. It's a lean run.

Rusty.

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