Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s going on at Thompsons Bay.

We’ve got a pretty messy start to the outlook, with a whole heap of days where the surf just isn’t worth the paddle. The first proper surfable pulse doesn’t show up until Friday afternoon July 3, and even then it’s only for the experienced crew. The swell hits 8 ft from the S with a solid 12-second period, but the kicker is the wind – it goes glass that afternoon. That’s rare, and it’ll turn the place into a mirror. Combined swell energy is strong at 2012, so there’s plenty of push. This is the standout window of the whole 16 days. Water temp is about average for the time of year.

The trouble is, Saturday morning July 4 brings a cross-on breeze and the swell jumps to 8 ft from the SSE at 13 seconds, but the wind messes it up. By afternoon on Saturday it’s cross-shore and messy. Sunday July 5 drops off fast – 6 ft but wind is already cross, and by afternoon the wind picks up to 15 km/h cross. The whole week after that is just poor conditions – tiny swell, short periods, wind chop – right through to Wednesday July 8 afternoon, which offers a brief clean moment with 3 ft from the ENE at only 9 seconds, but really not much to get excited about. The combined energy is weak at 244.

Thursday July 9 sees a spike in wind – 20 km/h cross – with 7 ft of short-period S swell at only 7 seconds, so it’s messy. Friday July 10 afternoon has a glassy window with 5 ft S swell at 13 seconds, combined energy 737, which is the second-best call but still nothing compared to that Friday glass session.

After that, it’s mostly poor or marginal through to Sunday July 12 afternoon, when a 8 ft S swell at a very long 17 seconds rolls in – combined energy 3258 – but it’s cross-on with rain, so the quality is questionable. That long-period groundswell will love a point or reef, but here at a sheltered bay it might just stack up straight.

Monday July 13 and Tuesday July 14 both have moderate energy but cross or cross-on winds keep it average. Swell directions shift to NE and ENE for a few days, but periods are short and wind is a problem. The final few days from July 15 onward are mostly small, windy, or both – not worth planning around.

The best bet by far is Friday afternoon July 3 – glassy, solid 8 ft S groundswell, and that’s as good as it gets. Saturday morning July 4 is a backup if you’re desperate, but the wind will be there. After that, you’re waiting a week for another half-decent glassy window on Friday July 10 afternoon.

No standout options beyond the first weekend. The second week is thin and unreliable. Still, with a fairly consistent setup like this, it won’t stay poor forever – forecasts can turn.

Rusty

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