Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Thompsons Bay.

Right off the bat, the next week or so is pretty grim. We’ve got a solid run of poor conditions from the 30th of July right through the first week of August. The wind is stuck in a cross or cross-onshore pattern, mostly from the SSW, and it’s blowing fresh to strong. That’s making a mess of anything that tries to stand up. The swell is actually there – we’re looking at a strong wave energy in the thousands (up to 1843) on Sunday the 2nd of August, with a 10ft south-easterly groundswell pushing through around 11 seconds. But with that cross-wind, it’s just lumpy cross-chop. That Sunday is the closest we get to anything rideable in the first week, and it’s still only marginal.

Saturday the 1st is a little smaller, around 7ft to 8ft, but again, the wind is all over it. Not worth getting wet for. The swell direction is coming from the SSE and SE, which isn’t really the optimum for this sheltered spot – it likes it from the SE.

We then hit a lull. Monday the 3rd through to Friday the 7th of August sees the swell drop right off, with heights barely cracking 5ft and wave energy in the low hundreds. It’s pretty well flat, and the wind doesn’t give us a break. That’s a solid five-day gap with nothing to chase.

Now, hold onto your board, because around the 9th of August the ocean wakes up. The 10th of August, Monday morning, is a big one. We’ve got a massive 15ft south-southwesterly swell rolling in with a 12-second period. The wave energy is extreme, hitting 5639. That is a lot of water moving. However, the wind is still a fresh cross-shore from the SSW, making it lumpy. This is expert-only territory at that size. For the average punter, it’s a skip.

The real standout window hits on Tuesday the 11th of August. That morning, we’ve got a 10ft southerly swell with a very long period of 16 seconds. The wave energy is immense at 4227. And crucially, the wind is light from the east, just a cross-onshore breeze with small wind ripples. For a sheltered spot like Thompsons Bay, that’s about as good as it gets for a big groundswell. This long-period energy will wrap in nicely, giving clean, well-shaped lines. It’s going to be a proper session. Tuesday afternoon holds similar size and energy but the wind swings to a moderate cross-shore from the NE, so the morning window is the pick of the bunch. Wednesday the 12th is still solid at 7ft from the south, with a 14-second period and light winds, offering a good backup session.

After that big pulse, it fades quickly. Thursday the 13th sees the swell drop way down, and by Friday the 14th of August we’re back to small, poor conditions with a cross-wind.

So, for the best bet across this whole 16-day stretch: Tuesday the 11th of August, early morning. That 10ft southerly groundswell with the 16-second period, under light winds, is a true standout. It’s going to be clean, powerful, and lined up. Just be aware, with a long period swell on a beach setup, it might break a bit straight, but the quality of the energy should make up for it.

Also worth a mention is Sunday the 2nd of August morning. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best of the first week. A 10ft SE swell with a 11-second period and a gentle cross-shore breeze will at least offer some lumpy but rideable options for the keen.

Keep an eye on that Tuesday the 11th. That’s the one.

Rusty.

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