Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let me tell you straight – for Thompsons Bay, it’s a tough stretch. We’re looking at a real dry spell right through the second half of August. Honestly, if you’re a surfer, you might want to find something else to do until we hit that final week.

Right now and for the next several days, the wind and the swell just aren't playing ball. We’ve got a persistent cross-shore wind and a messy, weak little easterly windswell. The wave energy is struggling, barely hitting the 700s (724) early on and dropping from there. Clean conditions are a distant dream. That goes on all the way from the 16th to the 21st. Every single session is rated “poor surf conditions.”

Even when the swell size bumps up a touch, like on the 20th with 7 ft from the SSW, the wind goes fully cross-onshore at 19 mph, wrapping the place in chop. And on the 21st we see a long-period 14-second S swell creep in, energy jumps to 972, but again the wind is just too strong and onshore to make anything of it.

Now, the waiting game. The first real glimmer of hope is the morning of the 22nd of August. We get a clean window with offshore WNW wind at 12 mph. The swell is a modest 4 ft from the SSW with a nice 12-second period. It’s labeled as “expect good surf conditions,” but the energy is still moderate at 476. For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is a decent chance to score a clean wave if you’re not expecting anything big.

After that, the rest of the 22nd and all of the 23rd get blown out again by strong cross-onshore winds. On the 23rd afternoon, the swell jumps to a massive 16 ft from the S with a very long 14-second period, and energy goes through the roof to 9282. But the wind is howling at 19 mph from the S. For a sheltered spot like this that needs the right direction, that’s not going to work for surfing. Honestly, with those numbers, if you have a kite, that’s where the fun’s at.

Here’s the real standout—and it’s a long way off. The morning of the 25th of August. Mark that date. The wind is forecast to be glassy—absolute dead calm from the SSW at only 3 mph. The swell is a solid 8 ft from the S with a long 13-second period pushing big energy at 2028. This is described as “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That 8 ft is in the zone for someone with some skill, and with that period, it’ll have proper power behind it. Just bear in mind a long period S swell can make a beach break sectiony, but for a spot like this that’s fairly consistent, it should still produce. Crowds are always a possibility at Thompsons Bay, so get there early. And the water temp is sitting right around average for this time of year at 70°, so it’s comfortable.

The days after that fade back into cross-shore winds and a dropping swell. A couple of marginal windows show up around the 24th and 31st with onshore or cross winds, but nothing I’d get excited about. The 31st does have a bit of size with 10 ft from SSW, cross wind, but the wind energy will mess up the face.

So here’s the short version: you’re looking at a week-plus of flat or poor surf. The 22nd morning is a small, clean option. But the clear winner, the one to hope for, is that glassy morning on the 25th of August. It’s a promise, not a guarantee this far out, but it’s the only real standout on the horizon.

Rusty.

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