Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right. G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s just get this straight up front: the next 16 days are a bit of a grind for our area. Nothing’s properly firing, and the sparse bits of surf that show up are compromised by wind or chop. The first real chance to even look at the water doesn’t come until Saturday the 25th of July, and even then, it’s a tough sell.

So, Saturday the 25th: Thompsons Bay is running 6 ft of SSE swell, but it’s coming from the wrong direction for this sheltered spot, it’s short period at 10 seconds, and the wind is a cross-on from the south at 6 mph. The wave energy is moderate (878), but the surface is poor. Not a session to get excited about. Sunday the 26th sees the swell drop to 5 ft from the SE, but the wind kicks up to 12 mph from the NE, making it cross-shore and choppy. The combined energy drops to 653. Still poor. Through the week, we get a mix of light rain, fresh winds, and messy cross-shore conditions. Monday the 27th has a brief pulse of 5 ft from the NE but with a terrible 6-second period and a SE wind that’s onshore. It’s marginal at best.

The only highlight worth talking about is Friday the 31st of July. The morning session at Thompsons Bay looks promising. The swell is 5 ft from the SE, period is 9 seconds, and the wind goes glassy calm from the NNE at just 3 mph. The energy is moderate (640). That’s the best window of the whole outlook – clean, lined up, and easy paddling. But it’s a short-lived window; by the afternoon it’s cross-on again.

After that, we see a pulse of bigger swell into the first weekend of August. Saturday the 1st and Sunday the 2nd both have 6 ft to 8 ft from the SE and ESE, with periods stretching to 10-11 seconds and moderate energy climbing to 716 and then 1246. However, the wind is a moderate cross-shore from the NE, and the setup becomes more interesting for kitesurfing than paddle surfing. The surf quality is poor, and the size is getting into the expert-only zone for the Sunday. It’s a heavy, messy cross-shore situation.

The second week of the outlook, from the 3rd of August onward, is consistently poor. The swell stays around 3 ft to 5 ft, but the wind is too strong from the NE, often 12-19 mph, and the periods are short. The energy is weak to moderate. By the 7th and 8th, the wind shifts to a fresh cross-on from the SSW, and the whole thing gets lumpy. No standouts. Nothing to chase.

So, the one true standout – the only one worth a look – is the glassy morning of Friday the 31st of July. That’s your best bet. The rest of the window is a write-off. Keep an eye on it, though. The bay can turn around.

Rusty.

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