Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way for Thompsons Bay over the next couple of weeks.

The outlook starts quiet, but there’s a bit of a wait. The first real chance to get wet doesn’t pop up until Tuesday the 14th of July. Before that, we’ve got a few days of marginal to poor conditions with a messy cross-onshore breeze and a weak, short-period swell that just won’t clean up. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Tuesday afternoon is the first window that looks worth paddling out. The wind drops to glassy, calm conditions, and we’ll see a 5ft swell from the SE with a 9-second period. The combined energy is moderate (753), and it’s set to be clean. It’s not a huge swell, but with zero wind, it’ll be smooth and fun for an intermediate surfer.

Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th stay in the marginal zone. The swell hangs around 5ft to 5ft from the ESE, but light cross-onshore breezes keep the surface a little rippled. It’s surfable, but nothing to get too excited about. The combined energy drops off a bit, sitting around 400-500.

Then we hit a bit of a flat spell from Friday the 17th through the weekend. Friday sees a fresh cross-onshore breeze and a dropping swell, making for lumpy, choppy conditions. Not great.

Saturday the 18th is interesting. A new S swell arrives with a longer 15-second period, pushing 5ft to 6ft, and combined energy climbs back up to 1170 and 1363. The wind is light and cross-shore, so it’ll be a bit bumpy but not terrible. The long period means better-shaped waves, but it might break a bit straight on the beach. Worth a look for the more experienced crew.

Sunday the 19th is a mixed bag. The morning shows an 8ft S swell with a 14-second period – that’s serious energy (2659). But a moderate cross-shore breeze will put a chop on it. This is only for experts; 8ft is too big for most. By the afternoon, a fresh breeze makes it lumpy. Not ideal.

Monday the 20th is a step down, with a 6ft SSE swell, still with a decent 13-second period, and a gentle cross-shore breeze. Combined energy is high (1713). It’s marginal, but the wind is light, so there could be a few clean ones if you’re picky.

The standout, and I mean the real standout, is Tuesday the 21st of July morning. We’ve got a 7ft swell from the ENE, but the period is a short 8 seconds, so it’ll be a bit fat and crumbly. The magic is the wind: glassy, calm, zero wind. Combined energy is moderate (798). It’s going to be clean and smooth, a proper session for the intermediate crowd. The afternoon turns messy again with a moderate cross-shore.

After that, the wind really picks up from Wednesday the 22nd through Thursday the 23rd. Strong, fresh breezes blow out any shape, with a mix of SSW and S swells that have long periods but are just too windy. The 3ft to 5ft range is there, but it’s gonna be lumpy and messy. Thursday the 23rd morning has a clean cross-offshore wind and a 3ft South swell with a very long 21-second period. It’s small, but the clean conditions and long period will make for some fun, hollow little waves – best on a point or reef if you can find one.

The final days of the outlook, from Friday the 24th to Sunday the 26th, are a write-off. A 10ft ENE swell on Friday afternoon is pure wind-chop, and the mixed SW swells over the weekend come with onshore winds. Not worth it.

So, here’s the bottom line: your best bet is Tuesday afternoon the 14th for a glassy, clean session on a modest swell, or Tuesday morning the 21st for the same glassy conditions on a slightly bigger, but shorter-period, swell. The 18th and 19th are for the brave with big boards and a strong paddle. The 23rd morning is a sneaky good one for a small, clean, long-period wave.

Signing off, Rusty.

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