Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s be honest about the next couple of weeks at Thompsons Bay. It’s going to be a tough slog. I'm not seeing any clean, standout days in this whole 16-day window, and there are long stretches where it’s just going to be blown-out and wonky. If you're desperate, you might find something, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

The water is 71°F right now, which is pretty standard for this time of year, so no surprises there. You’ll be comfortable in a spring suit, at least while you're waiting for a wave that never seems to come.

We start off rough. Tuesday the 11th has a 7ft SSE swell, but it’s messy and cross-on. It’s got moderate energy (1204), but it’s a total write-off. The next couple of days, the 12th and 13th, aren't much better. There's size, but the wind is all over the place, and the waves are just poor to marginal. The period is short, about 8-9 seconds, which means it’s junky and weak.

Then from Friday the 14th all the way through Thursday the 20th, we're in a pattern of just poor surf. Swell heights hover in the 4ft to 6ft range, but the wind is constantly cross or cross-on, chopping everything to pieces. There’s a small bump on Sunday the 16th with 6ft from the east with a longer period of 11 seconds, but the cross-wind kills it and it might even close out. It’s all just frustrating.

The only day that even comes close to being surfable is the morning of Wednesday the 19th. We have a 7ft south swell with a light onshore breeze, but the period is super short at 7 seconds. It’s still marginal, and with that size, it's for experienced surfers only. It’s the best of a bad bunch, but don't expect a classic.

After that, it’s more of the same from the 20th through the 26th. There’s a hint of a long-period groundswell on the 24th and 25th (swell period over 17 seconds), but the cross-shore winds will just ruin it. And when we get a bigger swell on the 21st (8ft), it’s going to have a fresh cross-shore wind on it, making it a complete mess. Honestly, a lot of this looks better for kitesurfing than surfing. The energy drops right out towards the end of the week, which means less power but also less wind.

This is a proper dry spell. It's common for this spot to go blank, but I’d say keep your eye on the forecast, because it can change. Until then, maybe find another hobby. Stay safe out there.

Rusty

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