Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Thompsons Bay is pretty much the only game in town on the local surf menu, but don’t get your hopes up yet. Over the next couple of weeks there’s barely a decent window to wet a board, and most of the run is full of messy cross-shore wind and poor-quality surf. If you’re patient, there’s one absolute standout right at the end of the outlook – but you’ll have to sit through a whole lot of average before you get there.

It kicks off on Tuesday the 25th of August with some weak energy – the combined swell energy is only 493 in the morning and 680 in the arvo, with a 3ft SSW swell at 16 seconds plus a persistent S/SSW cross-onshore. The water temp is sitting at 71°F, about average for the time of year. It’s choppy, it’s messy, and honestly, it’s a write-off. Wednesday the 26th isn’t much better – same 4ft to 6ft S swell, periods up to 18 seconds, but the cross-onshore keeps the surface grotty, and the rating never climbs above marginal. Thursday and Friday are just ugly: north-easterly winds cranking up to 28 mph, 5ft to 10ft of lumpy cross-chop, and the swell period drops to 8 seconds. That’s windswell territory and it’s not worth paddling out in. Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th stay similar – the only half-interesting moment is Sunday morning with a 8ft ENE swell and light east-south-easterly onshore, but the score is still terrible. The start of September remains flat and frustrating: Monday the 31st sees a 4ft E swell with S cross-onshore, Tuesday is barely 3ft, and Wednesday the 2nd has a 7ft ENE swell but it’s mixed with a 7-second period – sloppy and uninspiring.

Now here’s where things change, and this is the highlight you’ve been waiting for. On Friday the 4th of September, early morning, Thompsons Bay turns on. The combined swell energy jumps to 1405 – moderate energy – but it’s the conditions that make it special: 11ft of S swell with a period of 8 seconds, glassy wind from the south at just 3 mph. That is clean, that is open, and the surf looks very good. The swell direction is a decent match for the optimum SE direction, although the period is a bit short for a groundswell – it’s more of a local pulse – but with offshore or glassy conditions like that, you’ll still find some punchy walls. This is your one true standout. Bear in mind: at 11ft, this is expert territory – not for beginners, and the crowds at Thompsons Bay can show up sometimes, so get in early. The arvo on the same day sees 14ft of S swell (10-second period) with an east-north-easterly cross-breeze, which is still rideable but not as crisp as the morning glass-off. Saturday the 5th of September offers similar 11ft S swell but with stronger cross-winds, and by Sunday the 6th the SSE swell starts dropping and the cross-on wind returns. Everything after that fades into mediocrity – 6ft to 4ft swell with lumpy north-easterly winds, and by the 9th of September you’re back to 28 mph south-westerlies and rain. Periods after the 8th are short and messy.

So the call is simple: if you’re keen, pencil in Friday the 4th of September, early. Everything else is a case of wait and watch.

Rusty

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