Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s break it down for Thompsons Bay over the next 16 days. Truth is, it’s a tough stretch – almost nothing worth getting wet for. The wind is a constant problem, and the swell is either too short, blown out, or just plain wrong. There’s a big gap of poor conditions, but we do have one tiny window of hope right at the end.

The first week is a washout starting Tuesday, August 25th. Swell is there, but the wind is either cross-on or cross-shore, mostly moderate to strong, and the waves are called “poor” all the way through. We get a big southern groundswell on Wednesday afternoon with 7ft at 18 seconds, but the onshore breeze keeps it marginal – the energy is high (2715). Still, it’s a no-go. From Thursday through Saturday, the wind cranks from the northeast, hitting 31 mph, with 8ft to 10ft of short-period windswell (8 seconds). That’s lumpy, messy cross-chop – only for kite surfers if anyone’s game. The energy is strong (1738 to 1588), but it’s all garbage.

Then we get a whole week of light cross-on winds from the south and east, with small swell (2ft to 5ft) and poor conditions. Water temp is 70°F, which is average for the time of year. The energy stays weak to moderate (238 to 526). It’s a long, boring stretch.

The only real standout is a brief moment on Thursday, September 3rd. That afternoon, the wind goes glassy – a light easterly at 3 mph, described as “glass” – and we get 8ft of swell from the SSW. The period is short at 6 seconds, so it’s a windswell, but the glassy conditions make it clean. The report says “expect good surf conditions.” For a split second, this is the best on offer. The combined energy is moderate (566). The break is sheltered and faces southeast, so this SSW swell might not be a perfect fit, but with zero wind, it’s the only chance. This spot is fairly consistent, but it’s been a rough run.

After that, it’s back to the nightmare. Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th bring massive 16ft to 20ft swell from the south, with cross-on winds at 28-31 mph – totally blown out, dangerous for experts only. The energy is huge (5839 to 7783), but it’s a no-go for paddling. The rest of the run into the second week is similar: cross-shore winds, messy chop, and poor surf.

So, to wrap it up: the only real chance is a clean, glassy window on Thursday afternoon, September 3rd. It’s short-period but 8ft and clean. Other than that, it’s a long wait. The area tends to have these blank runs, so it’s not unusual. Forecasts can change, but for now, keep your gear dry.

Rusty.

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