Thompsons Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with the long-range picture. We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but there’s a few days of decent waves if you know when to look.

The first few days are basically a washout. The wind is all over the place, mostly cross and onshore, and the swell is short-period and junky. You’d be wasting your time paddling out. We’re looking at a few days of this, maybe four or five, before things start to clean up.

The real turning point is Sunday the 16th. The wind goes glassy in the morning, and we’ve got a 2.0m swell rolling in from the E with a 10-second period. The energy is moderate (826), but the clean conditions make it feel a lot better. This is the day to be out there. Water temp is 71°, which is pretty standard for this time of year, so you won’t need a hood.

Monday the 17th keeps the size up, with 2.2m from the E and a longer 11-second period. The energy is a bit stronger (1166), but the wind swings to a cross-shore, putting a bit of chop on the face. It’s still good, but Sunday is the cleaner of the two.

After that, it slowly fades. We get another glassy spell on Tuesday afternoon the 18th, with 1.8m waves, but it’s not the same quality. The second week is mostly small and wind-affected. The swell drops below a metre by the 21st, and the last few days are just not worth the paddle. There’s a small pulse from the S on the 23rd, but it’s tiny and onshore—not a goer.

So, mark your calendar for the morning of Sunday the 16th. That’s the pick of the fortnight. The E swell at 2.0m should be clean and lined-up, thanks to the glassy conditions. It’s a fairly consistent break, so you should get some waves, but it can get a little crowded, so be prepared to share. It’s an intermediate wave, so some push to it, but nothing scary. If you’re just starting out, that size might be a bit much, so maybe sit this one out.

The second-week stuff is more of a lottery. The models aren’t showing much, and the wind is iffy. I’d keep my expectations low for that far out.

That’s the skinny. A few rough days, then a window of clean surf. Be ready for it, because it doesn’t hang around.

Rusty.

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