Richards Bay (Outside) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and here’s the outlook for Richards Bay (Outside) in feet and knots.

We’ve got a tricky 16-day stretch ahead. The first few days are messy or just not worth paddling out for, with a run of poor and marginal conditions. The real story starts to build from the middle of next week, but hold on—there’s some serious size coming that’s going to be too much for this sandbar. Let’s walk through it.

Friday the 24th kicks off with a solid 12ft S swell at 10 seconds, but that 25 knot SSW cross-onshore wind is bulldozing it. The combined energy is a massive 2876, but it’s blown out and messy. Don’t bother.

Saturday morning the 25th drops to 7ft from the SSE with 8 knot winds, but it’s still cross-shore and only marginal. The tide is questionable. The afternoon sees the swell fade to 4ft, and the wind turns cross-onshore. Not worth it.

Sunday morning the 26th is 5ft SE swell, light NE cross breeze, but still marginal. The afternoon gets a bump in period to 13 seconds from the S, but only 3ft and a 15 knot cross wind. Just not coming together.

Monday the 27th has tiny 2ft S swell with a very long period of 16 seconds, but the wind is cross-offshore from the NNE, so it’s clean. The energy is only 269 though, so it’s flat and small.

Tuesday the 28th sees a spike: 7ft S swell with an 18-second period, but that’s accompanied by 16 knot SSE cross-onshore wind and rain showers. The energy is 2717, but it’s a lumpy, ugly mess. The afternoon drops to 6ft but with a short 7-second period and choppy onshore wind. Pass.

Now here’s where it gets interesting, but also dangerous. Wednesday the 29th morning pumps 10ft S swell at 8 seconds, with 11 knot SSW cross-onshore wind. The energy is 1102, but the forecast says the swell is too big for this break. The afternoon is the same 10ft but with a 15-second period and a huge energy of 3648. That’s a serious groundswell, but again, it’s too big for Richards Bay sandbar. Only for experts, and even then, the wind is cross-shore and choppy.

Thursday the 30th morning still has 8ft from the SSE, 9-second period, 11 knot SW cross wind. Energy is 2203. Still too big. The afternoon drops to 7ft SE, but still cross-onshore. Not the one.

Friday the 31st through Sunday the 2nd of August are all marginal or poor, with swell around 6ft to 7ft, periods of 9-11 seconds, and mostly cross or cross-onshore winds. The energy sits between 710 and 913. Just not clean.

Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th keep the same story: 6ft SE swell, cross winds, poor conditions. But Tuesday morning the 4th is a real standout. The swell drops to 4ft from the ESE at 10 seconds, but the wind goes glassy with ENE at 3 knots. The energy is 435, and the forecast says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s the cleanest window in the whole outlook. The water temp is 71°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. If you can get out Tuesday morning, that’s the pick. But it’s a sandbar, so with that long period (10 secs) it might be a bit straight, but the glassy conditions will make it fun.

The rest of the second week is small. Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th are tiny 3-3ft ESE swell, with cross-offshore winds from the NNE in the mornings, but energy is below 250. Clean but small. Friday the 7th has a long-period S swell of 16-17 seconds at 4ft, but the wind is cross-onshore, so it’s marginal. The energy climbs to 1307, but the wind isn’t right.

Saturday the 8th drops back to 3ft S swell at 16 seconds, but with a cross wind. The afternoon picks up to 4ft at 17 seconds, but the wind is cross-onshore again. Marginal at best.

So, the one true standout is Tuesday morning, August 4th. Glassy, clean, shoulder-high swell. That’s the session to circle. For the rest, it’s a waiting game or a kite-fest if the wind cranks.

Rusty

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