The Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Yo, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the waves coming up for The Reef. It’s a reef break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the NW, so it’s got potential, but the wind’s just not playing ball for most of the next two weeks. We’ve got a long stretch of messy, cross-onshore winds that’ll keep things choppy and frustrating. The water temp’s sitting at 69°F which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days are a tough watch. From Sunday 19 July through to Saturday 25 July, the swell is tiny, mostly under 3ft, and the wind is hammering it from the NW or NNW, making it all cross-onshore and rough. The combined swell energy is low, mostly between 45 and 164 (moderate to weak), and the period is short—6 to 8 seconds—so it’s just windswell mush. There’s no quality surf here; it’s all poor, with scores of 0. You’d be fighting a choppy mess for nothing.

The run of poor conditions lasts until the end of the month. On Sunday 26 July, the swell lifts a bit to 5ft from the NW, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy. The combined energy jumps to 259 (moderate), but the period is still short at 7 seconds. Monday 27 to Tuesday 28 July sees the swell push to 7ft, with energy climbing to 618 (strong), but the wind stays fresh and cross-onshore, making it a lumpy, ugly wave. The period is only 8 seconds, so it’s not well-shaped. This is getting too big for beginners, and with the wind, it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-friendly one.

Now, there’s a slight glimmer late in the window. On Wednesday 29 July, the swell is 8ft from the NNW with a longer period of 9 seconds, and the wind drops to a light 6 mph cross-on from the NW. The combined energy is 853 (strong). This is the first time the conditions feel borderline—the score is a 1, not a 0, and it’s described as “marginal” due to tide or other factors. It’s still cross-on, but the light wind means less chop. Thursday 30 July morning looks a touch better: 7ft swell, same period, light cross-shore from the S at 6 mph, which gives a score of 2. The energy is 770 (strong). This is the best on offer for the whole forecast, but it’s not a standout. The direction is NNW, not the optimum NW, and the period is only 9 seconds—not a long-period groundswell, so it won’t have the punch of a proper swell.

Friday 31 July and Saturday 1 August are back to poor conditions, with moderate winds and choppy surf. The swell drops to 5ft with energy around 321 (moderate). Then, Sunday 2 August morning is the only real highlight: the wind goes glassy from the WNW at just 3 mph, and the swell is 4ft from the NNW with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is 226 (moderate). The score is a 2, and it’s described as “expect good surf conditions.” This is the cleanest session of the entire 16 days—light wind, no chop, and a rideable swell. It’s not big, but it’ll be smooth. The crowd at The Reef is often there, so expect a few heads out. After that, Monday 3 August sees the wind pick up again, killing the quality.

Overall, the best window is Sunday 2 August morning, with glassy conditions and a clean 4ft swell. The rest of the two weeks is dominated by poor wind and messy waves. If you’re keen, the 30 July morning might offer a slightly bigger, cleaner option, but it’s a gamble with the light cross-shore wind. For most of the period, the surf is a write-off—strong but windy, or small and choppy. The Reef is consistent, but the wind’s just not cooperating.

Stay patient, Rusty.

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