The Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s in store for the next couple of weeks.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough run. The whole 16-day window looks pretty grim for a proper surf. The wind is just never our friend, hammering that NNW direction almost constantly, and it’s always cross or cross-on. The swell is there on and off, but the conditions just ruin it. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf, with a glimmer of something rideable right at the very end.

The first real pulse of size comes through on Thursday, the 6th of August, with a 6ft swell from the NNW, but it’s a short-period 7 seconds and the wind is a fresh 22 mph cross-breeze. That’s lumpy, choppy mess. The combined energy is moderate at 375, but it’s not one to paddle out for. That kind of blown-out, short-period chop is more for the kites. The swell sticks around for a couple of days, but the wind never lets up.

We go through a flat spell from the 8th through the 14th. The swell drops right off, barely a ripple, with the combined energy sinking as low as 72 (weak). The wind is still blowing, so it’s just a skunked-out period. Nothing to even look at.

Onto the 15th of August, Saturday, we get a real spike. The swell jumps to 8ft from the NNW, but it’s a short 8-second period and the wind is a cross-on 16 to 19 mph. The combined energy is strong at 952, but it’s just a raw, onshore mess. The Reef is exposed, so it’s taking the full brunt. This is definitely expert-only if anyone’s crazy enough, and honestly, it looks more like a washing machine than a wave. The 16th, Sunday, is the same story with 8ft to 10ft swell – same wind, same mess.

Now, the only thing that gets my heart beating a little is the morning of Monday, the 18th of August. The guidance says The Reef is a 4/5 star spot, which is rare. The swell is a solid 6ft from the NNW with a 9-second period, and the wind is a manageable 12 mph cross-shore. The combined energy is moderate at 635. It’s still a cross-shore chop, but the wind is lighter, and the swell has a bit more shape. The water temp is about average for the time of year, which is par for the course. The crowds are listed as "often," so it’s likely to be busy for a spot that’s still only marginal. But for this whole forecast, that’s the standout. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only window where the numbers don’t scream “stay home.”

Then the 19th of August, Wednesday, shows another 8ft, 9-second swell with a 16 mph cross-wind. The combined energy is very strong at 1192. Again, it’s a raw, powerful, and messy wave. Expert-only territory, and not all that clean.

So, to sum it up: the good news is there’s a lot of swell energy. The bad news is the wind is relentless. The only one I’d even consider a paddle for is the morning of the 18th, and even then, keep your expectations low. The rest of the run, you’re better off waxing the kiteboard.

Rusty.

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