The Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for The Reef for a good while now. Let’s be straight with each other: the next couple of weeks are not looking like a classic run. We’ve got a long, flat, and messy pattern setting in, and there are no real standouts to get excited about. The only break worth talking about is The Reef, and I have to say, it’s a tale of persistent disappointment until the very last few days.

It’s pretty grim right from Wednesday, July 29th. The water temperature is about what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing weird going on there, but honestly, you wouldn’t want to be in the water anyway. The wind is mostly cross or cross-on, and the swell is tiny, from the NNW, with combined wave energy that’s barely registering (weak). It’s just not doing anything. That theme runs all the way through the first week of August.

We roll through Thursday and Friday, still nothing. Swell heights are around 1.3 ft to 2.9 ft, periods are short, and the wind keeps messing with what little shape there might be. Even a small bump in energy on Saturday, August 1st, with a moderate reading and a 3.3 ft swell, is totally ruined by the messy cross-shore winds. There are no clean waves to be found.

This flat and poor quality run carries on right through until Sunday, August 9th. That’s over a week of nothing worth paddling out for. It’s a long, quiet spell.

Finally, there’s a tiny flicker of hope on Sunday morning, August 9th. The wind eases off and swings to a light ENE cross-offshore, cleaning things right up for a window. The swell is 3.6 ft from the west, with a short period. The energy is up to moderate conditions, and it’s described as clean. It’s surfable, but let's be honest, for The Reef, that swell with that short period isn’t firing. It’s more of a ‘if you’re desperate’ kind of session.

Moving into Monday, August 10th, the swell bumps up to 5.2 ft from the northwest, period still short, and the energy is solidly moderate. The morning wind is light and cross-shore, so it’s only a light cross-chop. This is the most promising look in the whole two weeks, but the forecast warns it’s marginal due to tide. For a reef break, that’s a massive caveat. At 5.2 ft, it’s starting to get a bit much for beginners, but not quite expert territory.

After that, it gets wild but ugly. By Tuesday, August 11th, the swell jumps to 7.2 ft from the NNW, period still short, packing strong energy. That’s a lot of water moving. But the wind is fresh and cross-shore, making it lumpy and tricky. For The Reef, that size is for experts only, and the wind is going to make it a real battle. The same holds into Wednesday and Thursday, with winds up to 19-22 mph. The setup is so wind-affected and chunky that it might actually be more interesting for kite surfers than for paddle surfing.

For the whole period, the best I can point you to is Monday morning, August 10th. It’s the only time we get a decent 5.2 ft swell from a good direction with light winds. For a reef break, expect the long-period energy to make the sets a bit straight, but the wind could give you some cleanish walls. Still, it’s not a standout, it’s just the least bad option in a long, poor run.

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