The Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it. The next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag for us here at The Reef. There’s definitely some size on the way, but the wind is going to be the main player in whether we actually get to enjoy it. It’s not going to be a flat spell, but it’ll take some patience to find the right windows.

The first few days, right through the middle of next week, are pretty grim. We’ve got some small, weak swell, but the wind is just awful for us – mostly cross-shore and cross-onshore, which is chopping everything right up. The energy is weak, reading between 91 and 129 on the combined scale, and the wave comment just says “poor surf conditions.” Not worth getting wet for, honestly. This stretch runs from Monday the 10th through to Thursday the 13th. The swell is small, around 1ft to 3ft, and the period is short and junky. You’d be fighting the wind more than riding waves.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th sees the swell start to pick up, but the wind is still messy. Saturday, the 15th, has a bit more energy, up to 474 on the combined scale, with waves around 5ft to 6ft, but it’s cross-onshore and lumpy. Not great. Now, Sunday morning, the 16th, that’s a different story. We finally get a break in the wind – a light, cross-offshore breeze from the SE, and it’s clean. The swell is a solid 7ft from the NNW with a 9-second period, and the energy is up at 613. That’s the first real standout of the forecast. The Reef is exposed to the NW, so this is right in its wheelhouse. It’s an advanced wave, and at 7ft, it’s pushing it for anyone not comfortable in solid surf. The morning is the window before the wind swings around to the SW in the afternoon and messes it up.

Monday the 17th also has some early potential with a 6ft swell and light winds, but it’s a cross-shore, not quite as clean as Sunday. The energy is still strong at 551. It’s a decent option, but Sunday is the pick of this run.

The following week opens with a bit of a lull. Tuesday the 18th has a fun-looking morning – glassy with a 5ft swell, but the energy drops to 341, so it’s weaker. Worth a paddle if you’re keen, but not a standout. Wednesday and Thursday the 19th and 20th are back to small and ordinary, with energy dipping to around 140. The swell drops to under 3ft.

Then we see a big pulse of energy arrive for the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd, but the wind is on it, making it a messy, cross-onshore affair. The energy is strong, up in the 500s, but the quality just isn’t there. Then it gets even bigger – Monday the 24th brings a 8ft swell with strong energy, 924 on the scale, but the wind is fresh and cross-shore. That’s a lot of water moving around, and it’s going to be a washing machine. This is more of a challenge than a pleasure.

But hold on, the long-range forecast is where the real gold is. Tuesday the 25th, that’s over a week and a half away, so treat it with some caution, but it looks special. The morning is glassy with a light SSE breeze, and there’s a 3ft swell, but it’s from the WNW with a very long 15-second period. The combined energy is a strong 554. That’s a long-period groundswell, which is perfect for a reef break like this. It’ll be lining up clean. The afternoon gets bigger, up to 8ft, but the wind goes onshore, so the morning is your window. This is a promising one, but it’s a long way out, so we’ll have to see how it develops.

So, to boil it down – the overall pattern is a lot of wind-stirred up, average surf, with two real standouts. The first is Sunday morning, the 16th, and the second, and the better one, looks like it could be Tuesday morning, the 25th, if the forecast holds. That long-period WNW swell is exactly what The Reef wants to see.

One more thing – the water temp is currently 69°, which is about normal for this time of year. Always a good sign.

Alright, I’ll see you out there when it's good.

Rusty.

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