The Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

First off, I’ve gotta be straight with you – this is a tough one. The Reef is our only game in town for the next 16 days, and to be honest, it’s looking bleak. The pattern is pretty much the same from Friday, July 31st, all the way through to Saturday, August 15th. We’ve got a wave coming in, but the wind is a constant pain in the arse. It’s almost always cross or cross-onshore, with a lot of moderate to fresh breezes, so the surface is going to be chopped up or lumpy the whole time.

The water temp at the start is 68°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so a wetsuit is fine.

Now, for the detail. It kicks off on Friday the 31st of July and the first week is a write-off. The swell is small, mostly under 3 feet, and the wind is a problem. The energy is weak to moderate – we’re talking values like 61 (combined energy) on Friday, building to maybe 169 by Saturday morning. But it doesn’t matter because the wind is ruining it. The forecasters are calling it “poor surf conditions” every single day until the 10th of August. The waves are there, but they’re just messy.

There’s a bit of a pulse on the 8th of August, with swell hitting 4 feet from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds, and the energy jumps to 324 (moderate). But again, the wind is cross or cross-on, so it’s going to be a bumpy, frustrating session. The Reef is an advanced reef break, and it’s fairly consistent, but with this wind, it’s just not gonna be fun.

The real stand-out – and I say this with a heavy heart because it’s still not perfect – is the morning of Monday, August 10th. The swell is 7 feet from the NNW, with a period of 8 seconds. The energy is strong at 450 (combined energy). The wind is cross-shore from the NNW at 15 km/h (9 mph), with a gentle breeze. That’s the best wind we see in the whole run. The problem is that the swell is big for this spot, over 5 feet, so it’s not for beginners. For the advanced crew, it could offer some size, but the short period of 8 seconds means it’ll be a bit soft and lumpy on the takeoff. It’s the only day that even gets a “marginal” call. It’s the best of a bad bunch.

After that, it drops back down. The 11th and 12th of August have 4 feet waves from the W with a 10-second period and energy around 314-318 (moderate), but the wind picks up again, with fresh breezes from the N or NNW. It’s the same story: cross-shore, lumpy, poor.

The last few days, from the 13th to the 15th, are just a repeat of the first week. Small swell, poor wind, and the energy drops to weak levels (98 on the 15th). Honestly, there’s no day in this 16-day window that I’d get excited about.

So, the bottom line? For a spot that’s fairly consistent, it’s a rare blank run. The wind is just not cooperating. It’s a surf outlook that’s more interesting for a kite session than a paddle, given the strong cross-shore winds. The forecasts can change, but as it stands, I’d give this one a miss and wait for the next system.

Rusty.

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