Costa Nova Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have an honest look at what’s on the table for Costa Nova. Straight up, this stretch is going to be a battle for most of the next two and a half weeks. The first recommendation for a paddle doesn’t show up until the morning of Monday the 27th, so you’ve got a solid gap of a few days with nothing worth getting wet for before then.

The early runs – from Thursday the 23rd right through the weekend – are tiny, messy, and blown out. Swell is barely 1 ft to 2 ft, period short around 6-7 seconds, and the combined energy is weak (33 to 228). Winds are either cross or onshore, and the water is sitting at 70°, a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, which is a nice bonus if you’re just standing on the sand.

Then, Monday the 27th morning, it finally turns. We’ve got glassy conditions – dead calm, wind from the ENE at just 3 mph. Swell is a modest 4 ft from the NNW, period only 7 seconds, so it’s short-period windswell, not groundswell. Combined energy is moderate (236). It’s a small, clean window and the first proper chance to get out there.

The real standout, though, is Tuesday the 28th morning. This is the one. Another glassy morning, wind from the WSW at 3 mph, and the swell bumps up a touch to 4 ft from the NNW, but the period stretches to 10 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell with more shape and energy. Combined energy hits 324 (moderate), and with offshore/glass conditions, it’s going to be peeling clean. This is your best bet for the whole outlook. The break is Costa Nova, a beach/jetty setup, exposed to W swell, and the swell is coming from the NNW, not dead on its optimum W, but with that period and glass, it’ll still offer up some fun ones. Crowds can be a thing there sometimes, so keep an eye out.

After that, it gets messy again. The rest of the week from Wednesday the 29th onward is mostly cross-onshore winds and choppy, lumpy conditions. Swell hangs around 3 ft to 5 ft but the period drops back to 7-8 seconds and the energy goes moderate but the quality is poor. You get a couple of mornings with marginal conditions – the 30th morning is borderline but still cross-shore wind ripples.

The second week, from the 1st of August onward, is a write-off. Swell drops to 1 ft to 3 ft, period varies, winds stay fresh and cross or cross-onshore, mostly from the NNW at 12-19 mph. Combined energy is weak to moderate (40-157). There’s a glimmer on Friday the 7th morning – glassy again with 3 ft from the NNW, but period is short at 6 seconds and energy is weak (89). It’s surfable but very ordinary. Not worth holding your breath for.

So, bottom line: the only session that’s truly worth chasing is the morning of Tuesday the 28th. Monday the 27th morning is a decent fallback. Everything else is either blown out, tiny, or both. If you’re a kite surfer, the afternoon cross-onshore breezes and bumpy chop might look more interesting than a paddle. Until then, keep the board in the car and wait for that Tuesday glass-off.

Rusty.

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