Costa Nova Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking at Costa Nova.

Honestly, mate, the next 16 days are a real mixed bag. We’ve got a proper dry spell on the cards to start, with barely a ripple worth mentioning. The water is sitting at 64°, which is about average for the time of year, nothing out of the ordinary.

For the first week, it’s pretty grim. The morning of Friday, July 10th offers the first real chance to get wet. The swell is a tiny 2ft from the WNW, with a period of 9 seconds. The combined wave energy is weak (94). The real kicker here is the wind: glassy, absolutely perfect. It’s surfable, but you’ll be working for it. The wind is offshore, so it’ll be clean, but it’s a very ordinary little wave. Saturday the 11th morning has a similar 2ft from the NW, but it’s a cross-on breeze, so the quality is already gone.

From there, it’s a long, quiet slog. The swell drops to almost nothing for days, with periods as low as 6 to 7 seconds. The wind is mostly cross or cross-on, and the combined energy is often in the double digits (44, 25, 21). There’s a few glassy mornings on the 14th and 15th, but with only 1.0ft on offer, it’s a flat lake. The setup here is a beach and jetty, but with these tiny, weak waves and messy wind, it looks more interesting for a kite than a paddle for most of this period.

Then, the second week starts to get interesting, but it’s a long way off. The 18th of July sees a bump to 3ft, and by the 19th, the swell pushes over 5ft, with a 6ft from the NNW on Sunday morning. The energy jumps to strong (358). The wind is still cross, not clean, but there’s size. On Monday the 20th, it’s 8ft from the NNW, and the combined energy is very strong (550). This is where it gets tricky. The period is short (7-8 seconds), and the wind is cross or cross-on with a moderate to fresh breeze. At 8ft, this is pushing into expert territory, and the chop will be a mess. The 21st of July, Tuesday morning, the swell is 7ft from the NNW with a period of 9 seconds. The energy is very strong (676). The wind is still cross, but the marginal forecast notes suggest tide could be a factor.

The standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of the 21st of July. You’ve got a solid 7ft of NNW swell, with a period of 9 seconds. The energy is very strong (676). The wind is cross-shore, but it’s a moderate breeze, so it’ll be lumpy and messy. It’s not clean, but for a strong surfer who knows the break, there will be some power in the water. The longer period swell (9 secs) will offer better shape than the short-period stuff, but the cross wind will ruin it. It’s a long-range call, so treat it with a grain of salt, but it’s the only window with real oomph.

Overall, don’t hold your breath for the first week. The second week has size, but the wind is the enemy. Keep an eye on the 21st of July morning, but don’t book the trip yet.

Rusty.

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