Costa Nova Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it’s Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Costa Nova over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – it’s going to be a long, quiet patch before we finally see some life in the water.

The first chunk of the outlook is a real bummer. From now, right through to the middle of the month, we’re looking at a run of small, weak swells and messy winds. The combined energy is mostly in the weak range, often below 100 (e.g., 55), and even when it nudges into that moderate zone around the 9th of July, the conditions are poor. Expect a lot of cross-onshore breezes and choppy, bumpy faces. There’s just nothing to get excited about for over a week.

You’ll see a couple of moments where the wind goes glassy – Friday the 10th morning, Saturday the 11th morning, and Wednesday the 15th morning – and the wave comment turns from “poor” to “surfable but very ordinary.” But honestly, with swell heights barely topping 2 feet and that weak energy (105, 136, 117), it’s just small and weak. If you’re desperate for a splash, you could catch a tiny one on the glass, but it’s not worth writing home about.

Then we hit a long dry spell from the 16th onward where the numbers look a bit bigger but the wind keeps trashing it. The 17th of July sees a jump to 5 feet, but it’s crossed-up with moderate winds and a score that says it’s still poor. The combined energy hits 372, which is strong, but the period is only 9 seconds and the wind is messy, so the quality just isn’t there.

Finally, things start to come together towards the end of the outlook. The standout window is from Sunday the 19th of July through Tuesday the 21st of July. On Sunday the 19th morning, Costa Nova gets a clean shot. The swell is 6 feet from the NW with a very short 6-second period, which isn’t ideal for a beach break like this – it’ll be a bit sectiony and on the fat side. But the key here is glassy conditions. The wind is virtually nothing from the WSW, so those waves will be clean and smooth. The combined energy is strong at 245. That 6 feet is getting into the range where beginners might find it a handful, but for an intermediate, it’s game on.

The real pick of the whole forecast, though, is Monday the 20th of July morning. Same spot, Costa Nova, and again that magic word: glassy. Swell is a consistent 6 feet from the NNW, with a combined energy reading of 334 – that’s solid. It’s the best combination of size and clean conditions we’ve seen in this entire 16-day run. The water temp is about average for the time of year, sitting around 65°F, so a spring suit is your friend.

Tuesday the 21st morning follows up with another glassy dawn, 6 feet from the NNW, and energy at 314. It’s a nice little run, but remember the period is short (7-8 seconds) so the sets will be a bit quick and not as pushy as a long-period groundswell. Still, when it’s glassy and there’s punch in the water, you take it.

A word of warning: Costa Nova can get crowded sometimes, so get in early for those glassy mornings. Also, for the afternoons on these standouts, the wind swings onshore, so your window is strictly the dawn patrol. If the wind is up and the swell is over 5 feet on the beach, this setup starts looking more interesting for the kite crew than for paddlers.

The last week of the outlook is too far out to guarantee, but that Sunday-to-Tuesday stretch is the one to circle on your calendar.

Rusty.

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