Costa Nova Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Costa Nova are looking a bit of a grind. We’ve got a long, drawn-out stretch of onshore wind and weak, messy swell that’s going to leave the place mostly chopped out and uninviting. For the first week or so, just about every session is a write-off with "poor surf conditions" on the card. It’s not until we get into the second week that a couple of windows pop up, and even then, they’re brief.

The water temp is running about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Right now, from Thursday the 6th right through to Tuesday the 18th, there’s nearly two weeks of nothing you’d want to paddle out for. The wind is stuck cross-on from the NNW or NW, gusting up to 19 mph, and the swell is tiny and weak. Most days the wave energy is well under 200 (like a measly 103 or 127), with heights bouncing between 1 ft and 5 ft. The period is short too, mostly 6-9 seconds, so it’s just wind slop.

There’s one little flicker on Wednesday morning the 12th – a 3 ft west swell with energy up to 228, but the wind is still cross-on, so it’s only a marginal call.

The real standout, and I mean the only one worth circling on your calendar, is Wednesday the 19th. We get a proper glass-off in the morning – that’s right, zero wind, clean, glassy conditions. The swell is 5 ft from the NNW with a period of 8 seconds and a combined energy of 363. That’s moderate energy and decent size, but because it’s that shorter-period NNW stuff, it’ll be a bit soft and won’t have the punch of a groundswell. Still, with no wind, it’ll be the cleanest wave we see all period.

Thursday morning the 20th is also worth a mention. We get another glassy morning with 4 ft from the NNW and energy of 180, but the wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” so it’s a step down from Wednesday.

Honestly, if you’re a beginner, the 5 ft on Wednesday is right at your limit, and the 6 ft on Saturday the 15th is too big for you – that one’s also got a strong 19 mph cross-on wind, making it lumpy and ugly.

Because the wind is so consistently cross-on and the surf quality is poor for most of the run, a lot of these days look more like a kite surfer’s session than a paddle surfer’s. The beach setup with that side wind is perfect for boosting.

So, to sum it up: wait for that Wednesday the 19th morning. It’s your best shot. Everything else is a miss.

Rusty

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