The Breakwater-St Ives Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it for the home break.

Right off the bat, I gotta be honest: this 16-day window is a real mixed bag, and for the most part, it’s looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. The first week is almost a write-off, with a whole lot of nothing happening. The surf is gonna be tiny and weak for days on end. The only real glimmer of hope comes late in the run, but we’ve got a long wait to get there.

The first real shot of decent energy doesn’t show up until Thursday the 27th. That afternoon, we’ll see a pulse of swell push through The Breakwater-St Ives, lifting to about 6 ft from the SW. The combined energy jumps to a solid 639 (moderate), and we get a gentle offshore wind. That’s the cleanest it’s gonna look for a while, but the swell period is a short 9 seconds, so don’t expect any real power or long walls. It’s a blip, not a blockbuster.

Friday the 28th afternoon sees the size bump up again to about 8 ft from the WSW, with a combined energy of 558 (moderate). But the wind swings cross-off, and the period is still a short 7 seconds. It’s gonna be a bit of a messy, lumpy beast. Not a standout.

Things get a bit more interesting as we head into the second week. On Saturday the 5th of September, we get a solid pulse of 7 ft to 8 ft from the WSW, with a combined energy between 489 and 720 (strong). The wind is offshore, keeping it clean, but the short period (7-8 seconds) means it’ll be a bit of a close-out wave at this point break. It’s a session for the experienced crew.

Now, if you’ve got some patience, the real standout is peeking over the horizon. On Sunday the 6th of September, the swell is predicted to be a solid 10 ft from the WNW. The combined energy is massive, hitting 1256 (very strong). The period is a better 9 seconds, but the wind is onshore on Sunday morning, which is a real shame. The afternoon cleans up with a light cross-on, and the energy is even higher at 1396. That’s proper, heavy groundswell. But for a point break, a 10 ft swell with that much energy is a serious proposition. It’s expert territory, and the swell direction is coming from the WNW, which is going to wrap in differently than the optimum NW direction. It’s a big, powerful, and potentially dangerous wave. The water temp is 63°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Then Monday the 7th of September keeps the energy going. We’re looking at 6 ft to 12 ft from the W and WSW, with combined energy readings of 1082 and 1351 (very strong). The wind is offshore, which is great, but the afternoon swell of 12 ft is flagged as too big for this break. That’s the expert-only window, and it’s a long way out, so treat it as a promising but not yet locked-in forecast.

So, to wrap it up: don’t bother with the first week. The standout is the big, clean energy on Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th of September, but that’s a heavy, expert-only wave at The Breakwater-St Ives. The rest of the time, the wind is gonna be a factor, and the swell is either too small or too messy. If you’re a kite surfer, the strong cross-shore winds on the 10 ft days might look appealing, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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