The Breakwater-St Ives Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this out there. The next couple of weeks are going to be a proper test of patience, that’s for sure. The swell is gonna be small and the wind is gonna be a headache for the most part. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf, but there are a couple of windows where it might just come together, if you’re willing to wait.

First up, the outlook for The Breakwater-St Ives is pretty grim for the next little while. This spot is inconsistent at the best of times, and this stretch is looking like a write-off. The water’s sitting at 65°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing while you’re staring at the flatness.

The first few days are a total no-go. Sunday the 9th and Monday the 10th, we’ve got tiny, weak swell—around 1ft to 2ft—with onshore and cross-onshore winds making it messy. The energy is weak, with values in the 30s and 60s [36, 35, 66]. It’s just not worth suiting up.

We get a bit of a clean-up on Tuesday the 11th with some cross-offshore winds, but the swell drops right off to nothing – 0.7ft to 1ft. It’s clean but there’s just nothing to ride. The energy is really weak, down in the 20s and 30s [26, 31].

Then we see a little pulse of energy arrive on Wednesday the 12th. The swell bumps up to 3ft to 3ft from the west, with a period around 9-10 seconds. The energy readings get into the moderate range, around 132 and 139. But the wind still isn't playing ball, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, so it’s going to be lumpy and uninviting. Still a poor outlook.

Thursday the 13th is the first time we see a bit of size, with 4ft of west swell and a period of 11 seconds. The energy is getting more solid, up to 281. But the wind is still on it, from the north, making it choppy and poor. It's a tease, nothing more.

The weekend of the 16th and 17th brings the biggest swell of the period so far, but it’s all wrong. We’re looking at 5ft on Sunday the 16th, but it’s short-period, wind-driven stuff from the north with a period of only 7 seconds. Winds are fresh and onshore, so it’s going to be a messy, stormy mess. The energy is moderate, up around 254, but the quality is zero. This is not a surf option.

After that, the swell just fades away again. Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th are back down to tiny, weak surf – 1ft to 0.3ft. There’s a long-period groundswell from the southwest on Tuesday the 18th, with a period of 16-17 seconds, but the height is only 0.3ft. It’s not even a ripple.

The following week, things pick up a touch, but it’s still not good. Around the 19th and 20th we get some cleaner conditions with cross-offshore winds, but the swell is still small, around 2ft to 3ft, and the energy is weak to moderate at best [53, 82, 92, 99]. It’s rideable for a log if you’re desperate, but it’s not what we’re after.

The real standout, if you can call it that, looks like it’s going to be Monday the 24th. The swell is forecast to build to 6ft, with a period of 7 seconds, and the energy is strong, at 473. The wind is forecast to be light from the north, which could actually groom it a bit. It’s still a short-period swell, which means it could be a bit walled, but it’s the biggest and most powerful swell in the whole window. The 23rd also shows a pulse of 5ft on Sunday afternoon, but the wind is on it, so it won’t be as clean.

Sadly, none of this is looking like classic conditions for The Breakwater-St Ives. The swell direction is mostly from the west to northwest, which is what you want, but the wind and the inconsistent nature of the break are holding it back. For the first week-and-a-half, it’s going to be a battle just to find a ripple. The second week is a bit more promising, but it’s still far from a sure thing. Hold tight, and check back in a few days.

Rusty.

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