The Breakwater-St Ives Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the outlook for the next couple of weeks is looking pretty grim. The setup is there, but the wind and timing just aren't playing ball. We’ve got a long stretch ahead with nothing worth getting excited about.

It’s a tough one right now. The water at The Breakwater-St Ives is sitting at 64°, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so that’s one small comfort. But don’t let that fool you.

We kick off from Tuesday the 21st with tiny, weak swell. That 1ft from the WNW with a 10-second period sounds okay, but a northerly breeze is blowing straight onshore, making it a real mess. There’s basically no energy either (76). The next few days are more of the same – small, short-period junk from the north with onshore winds. Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd are write-offs.

Friday the 24th flatlines completely. That 0.3ft of long-period SW groundswell might sound fancy, but it’s a ghost. The energy is a measly 18. It’s a dead day.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th see a bump in size, hitting 5ft and 5ft on Sunday, but the wind is from the NW and cross-onshore, turning it into a choppy, lumpy mess. The energy climbs to 221 on Sunday afternoon, but it’s all wasted. The period is short (6-7 seconds), so it’s just wind slop. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one.

The pattern continues. Monday the 27th is still lumpy, Tuesday the 28th finally sees a clean window with light WSW winds, but the swell is tiny at 3ft. The energy is only 77. It’s not enough.

We go through a whole week of nothing. Morning of the 28th, the 29th, the 30th, and into the 31st – all clean but tiny. On the 31st, we get a strong offshore from the SSW, which is a good sign, but the swell is only 2ft. It’s clean but hard to paddle into. You’d be scratching for a 2-foot wave.

Then the first week of August kicks off with a pulse of energy. Saturday the 1st sees a 3ft to 4ft swell from the W with a 10-second period, bringing energy up to 279. But the wind is cross or cross-onshore from the NW. It’s going to be choppy. Sunday the 2nd is the biggest we see, with a 6ft WSW swell hitting 436 energy on the morning. That’s a solid, moderate-sized swell. But again, the wind is a cross-onshore WNW breeze. It’ll be a choppy, lumpy mess, not the clean lines you want. This is for experts only, if anyone.

The energy drops off after that. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th are smaller and cleaner, but nothing special. The last day in the window, Wednesday the 5th, is clean but tiny.

The best on offer? Honestly, if you’re desperate, the early morning of Tuesday the 28th of July is the clearest window. With a light WSW wind and clean conditions, that 3ft from the WNW might give you a couple of fun ones if you’re on a longboard. But it’s not a standout.

The real standout, and it’s a long shot, is Sunday the 2nd of August. That 6ft WSW swell with 436 energy is the biggest, most powerful pulse we see. But it’s a long way out, and the wind is forecast to be cross-onshore. If that wind shifts a little more offshore, it could be a proper session. As it stands, it’s a promise, not a sure thing.

Bottom line: this is a tough run. The peaks are all wind-affected. The best advice is to wait for the forecasts to change. It tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

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