The Breakwater-St Ives Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break down what’s happening on the water.

First off, The Breakwater-St Ives is lookin’ pretty flat and funky for a long stretch. The water temp is about 64°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a small win while you’re waiting for something good.

Right now, through Thursday and into next week, the swell is mostly small and sloppy. The first decent pulse we get is on the 12th of September, Saturday afternoon, with a 6ft swell from the west, period at 8 seconds, and a cross-off wind from the southwest at about 16 mph. The combined energy is moderate (421), but the conditions are still called poor. It’s rideable but nothing special. A few clean windows show up on the 13th of September, Sunday morning, with 5ft from the west, period bumping to 10 seconds, and a cross-shore wind, but the energy is moderate (499) and it’s only marginal. The wind is light but cross-shore, so it’s not glassy.

The standout in this whole 16-day window is the 24th of September morning. That Thursday shows a 8ft west swell with a short 8-second period, but the offshore wind from the south at only 6 mph should keep it clean. The combined energy is strong at 781. That’s the one to mark—it won’t be perfect, but it’s far and away the best we’ve got. Now, the afternoon of the same day shows a massive pulse: 12ft west-northwest swell, very long period at 15 seconds, glassy conditions, with the combined energy through the roof at 6249. But man, that’s way too big for The Breakwater—that’s expert-only stuff, and the forecast even says it’s predicted to be too big for this spot. The long period will make it unload heavy, so unless you’re a seasoned charger, steer clear.

The 25th of September Friday still has a solid 10ft west swell in the morning, period at 13 seconds, strong energy (5460), and clean cross-off winds, but again, that’s well over 8ft and only for experts. The afternoon drops to 8ft, still with long period and clean, but marginal conditions are flagged. If you’re experienced, those two sessions on the 24th afternoon and 25th morning are promising, though long-range outlooks are always less certain.

The rest of the window is mostly small, windy, or poor. The 15th of September Tuesday sees 5ft to 7ft but with choppy onshore winds. The 16th Wednesday has a big 6ft swell from the west-northwest with onshore northerly winds up to 19 mph—that’s blown out and messy.

So here’s the bottom line: there’s a whole lot of waiting. The 24th of September morning is your best call for a decent paddle with clean, manageable swell. The afternoon and the 25th are for the big-wave crowd only. Otherwise, pick your moments carefully and don’t expect much.

Rusty.

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