Suicides Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here.

Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it—this stretch is a real flat spell for us. We’ve got a 16-day window, and honestly, there’s not a single day where I’d tell you to paddle out. The wave energy is there, sure, but it’s all wrong for the spot we’re watching.

That break is Suicides, a proper advanced reef set-up. It’s consistent, but it’s exposed to swell from the NNW, and everything in this forecast is coming from the north or northeast. That’s the wrong angle, so we’re looking at a whole run of poor surf conditions.

The first week, from Monday the 10th through Sunday the 16th, is all cross-onshore wind. We’re talking a moderate breeze from the NNE and N, at 12 to 16 mph, keeping things choppy and lumpy. Swell heights hover around the 3 ft to 5 ft mark, with periods of 6 to 8 seconds. That’s short-period wind slop, not real groundswell. The combined energy is mostly weak to moderate, in the 100 to 238 range. It’s just messy, weak and bumpy. Not what you want at a shallow reef.

There’s a slight drop in wind on the 16th and 17th, but the swell stays small and weak. We go into the second week, and the winds finally ease up a bit. From the 17th onwards, we see lighter breezes, but the swell is still small, around 3 ft to 4 ft. The period does stretch out to 9 seconds on the 17th, 18th, and 19th, which is a bit better, and the energy picks up to the 265 range on the 18th. But it’s still coming from the north, and the wind state is either cross-onshore or straight on. It’s just not going to break with any shape.

One thing to note: the water temp is 74°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Not a huge deal, but a bit noticeable.

The last few days of the window, starting around the 22nd, we see the swell tick up a little, hitting 5 ft on the 22nd and 6 ft on the morning of the 23rd. That’s the biggest of the whole run, and the energy jumps to 353, which is the strongest we’ll see. But the period is still only 7 to 8 seconds, and the wind is back to a moderate cross-onshore. That’s still not a recipe for a good reef wave. It’ll be fat and walled-up.

So, there you have it. No real standouts, no days that scream “go.” It’s a blank run, which can happen for this area when the swell angle is this wrong.

Keep the board in the car for a drive, maybe check somewhere else, because this stretch is a no-go for us. Forecasts can change, but as it stands, I’d find something else to do.

Rusty.

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