Suicides Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, gather 'round, grab a coffee. Rusty here with the long-range look for Suicides. Let's be straight with you, it's a tough stretch ahead.

The overall pattern is a classic case of 'almost, but not quite'. We've got a consistent supply of north and north-northwest swell running through the whole 16-day window, but the wind is the real story here, and it's not a good one. For the vast majority of this period, we're looking at a persistent cross-onshore breeze from the north-northeast, which is going to keep the surface messy and the waves lumpy. It's a reef break that's exposed to the north-northwest swell, but it's just not going to come together. There's a significant gap in surfable conditions right from the start. The first few days of the forecast, from Friday the 31st of July right through to Monday the 10th of August, are all marked by poor surf conditions. That's a long, frustrating run.

The best chance for a surfable wave, and I'm being careful with my words here, falls on Sunday the 9th of August. The swell is due to build, with a combined energy of 305 (moderate) on the Sunday afternoon, coming in at 5 ft from the north at a 9-second period. Saturday the 8th also sees a bit of size, with 4 ft swell from the north, but the energy is lower at 184. The problem is, even then, the wind is onshore or cross-onshore. The best call is probably the morning of Sunday the 9th, with a north-northwest swell of 3 ft and a 9-second period, combined energy of 194 (moderate), but it's still cross-onshore. It's not going to be clean, but it might be the least messy. The water temperature anomaly is about average for the time of year, so don't expect any surprises there.

As we head into the second week, the swell size actually increases a bit. From Monday the 10th onwards, we're seeing 5 ft to 5 ft north swells, with combined energy climbing into the 300s and 400s (moderate to strong). But the wind also gets stronger, with a fresh cross-onshore breeze blowing 15 to 18 mph, turning into a strong breeze by Friday the 14th. This is going to be lumpy, messy, and blown out. For a reef break like Suicides, with that consistent cross-onshore wind, the setup honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It's not what you want to hear, but it's the truth.

So, the standout window, if you can call it that, is the weekend of the 9th and 10th of August. Even then, it's a gamble. The forecast confidence on that is reasonable, but the long-range stuff after that is even less reliable. For now, keep your expectations low and your standards high.

Rusty.

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