Suicides Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s cut straight to it.

Look, I’ve been staring at this forecast for the next 16 days and honestly, it’s a tough one to swallow. Suicides is a reef break that knows how to handle a proper swell, but the wind just won’t play ball. We’ve got a solid sequence of swell coming through, but the wind is locked in from the north, hammering the place with a fresh cross-onshore breeze for the vast majority of the period. That means the surface is going to be lumpy, choppy, and just plain messy. The water temp is sitting about average for July, so nothing unusual there.

The first real surf on offer kicks off on Sunday the 19th, but it’s a write-off. Swell at 5 ft from the NNE, with a short, weak period of 6 seconds, and the combined energy is a weak 160. That’s not surf, that’s a washing machine with a 19 mph cross-on wind. The whole first week, from the 19th through the 25th, is the same sad story: swell builds from 5 ft up to 7 ft, the period stretches to 8 seconds, but that wind never lets up. The energy climbs from weak to moderate (160 to 453), but it’s all for nothing. We’re looking at a solid 7 days of “poor surf conditions” with no break in the onshore wind. It’s a total bust.

Things start to get interesting around the 28th of July. The wind finally shifts to the NNW, turning onshore, but for the first time in a week, it’s not cross-on. The swell drops to 4 ft on the 28th afternoon, but with a period of 7 seconds, it’s not much to write home about. The energy is still moderate (246). But then, on the 30th of July, we get a glimmer of hope. The swell comes up to 6 ft from the north, the period stretches to a solid 10 seconds, and the wind holds from the NNW. That’s a groundswell pulse, and with 844 combined energy, it’s a strong, powerful push. The problem is, the wind is fresh at 19 mph, so it’s not clean, but it’s the best window we’ve got. The swell direction is a close match to the optimum (NNW), so the reef should handle it well. For the experienced crew, the morning of the 30th is the standout. Keep in mind that 6 ft with that period is solid, not for beginners.

The last few days, from the 1st of August onwards, the swell drops back to 4-5 ft, and the wind goes back to that cross-on NNE mess. It’s a bit of a whimper.

So, the pick of the litter is a single window: Thursday the 30th of July. The morning brings 6 ft of north swell at 10 seconds, with a moderate onshore breeze. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only time the wind and swell align even close to being surfable. The combined energy (844) tells you there’s plenty of water moving. It’s a reef, so those long-period groundswell lines will peel nicely. It’s strictly for the advanced crew though – 6 ft with that power is no joke. Crowds are likely, as it’s a consistent spot. For the rest of us, it’s a good week to clean the wax off your board and wait for the pattern to change.

Rusty.

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