Sawtell-The Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Sawtell-The Island over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, with some solid size early on, but also a fair few sessions where the conditions are questionable – tide, wind, and sheer power will be the deciding factors.

The water temperature is sitting at 67.8°, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing freaky there.

We’ve got a decent stretch of surf on the way, but the first real standout? That’s a tricky one. The opening session on Saturday afternoon, 4th July, is pretty lacklustre – a cross-shore breeze and a weak 3.9ft southerly swell with an 8-second period, giving a combined wave energy of just 379. It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about.

Sunday the 5th kicks off small and clean in the morning, with a 2.0ft SSE swell and 9-second period, but the energy is low (115), so it’s more of a longboard glide. The afternoon brings a bump up to 6.2ft SSE swell at 12 seconds – that’s better period, and the combined energy jumps to 1060. The wind is cross-offshore from the SSW, so it’ll be clean. That’s a solid session for the keen ones.

Monday the 6th sees the swell push up to 8.2ft from the SSE with a 9-second period. The combined energy is 1121 in the morning, and the wind is cross-off, so it’s clean. But at 8.2ft, we’re getting into expert-only territory – this is not a beginner’s wave. The wind picks up to 30 km/h (18.6 mph) in the afternoon, making it even more gnarly. The energy climbs to 1383 – it’s proper grunty.

Tuesday the 7th is a beast. The swell hits 11.5ft with an 11-second period from the SSE. The combined energy is 4252 in the morning and 2599 in the afternoon. The wind is cross-off, so it’s clean, but the file says the swell is too big for this break. This is for serious chargers only, and even then, it’s a mission. Same story for Wednesday morning the 8th – 11.5ft SSE swell, 11-second period, energy at 4862. That’s massive. The afternoon drops to 7.2ft SE swell with 11-second period – still big, but the energy is 2509. The wind stays cross-off, so the shape might hold, but it’s still heavy.

Thursday the 9th brings a 7.9ft SSE swell at 10 seconds, energy around 2023 in the morning. The wind is cross-off, but the conditions are marked as marginal. Not the cleanest.

Now for the standout. Friday morning the 10th July is where it’s at. The swell drops to a more manageable 5.2ft from the SE with a 10-second period, combined energy of 620. The wind is cross-off from the SSW, and the file says to expect very good surf conditions. The swell direction (SE) matches the optimum for the break, and the crowd factor is only “sometimes”, so you might get a few waves to yourself. This is the best session of the first week – clean, decent size, and good energy.

Saturday the 11th has a glassy 4.9ft SE swell at 10 seconds in the morning – energy 433 – and the wind is a glassy light northwesterly. That’s a beautiful clean morning, but the swell is a little smaller.

Sunday the 12th holds up well: a 4.3ft ESE swell with 11-second period in the morning, energy 441, and a clean cross-off breeze. The afternoon goes glassy again with a 3.6ft SE swell at 10 seconds – very clean, but small. Good for a log.

After that, we hit a lull. From Monday the 13th onwards, the swell drops right off – 2.0ft, then 1.3ft, then 2.0ft ENE junk. The energy drops to 70 and below. That stretch runs through to the 15th, with tiny, weak surf. There’s a gap of several days with nothing worthwhile.

Wednesday the 15th afternoon sees a slight uptick – 6.6ft S swell at 8 seconds, energy 527 – but the wind is cross-off and the conditions are marginal. Not great.

Thursday the 16th has 7.2ft SSE swell at 9 seconds, energy around 898, but the wind gets strong – 35 km/h (21.7 mph) from the south in the afternoon. It’s messy.

The second week’s real highlight? Look to Sunday morning the 19th July. A nice 3.6ft ESE swell with a very long 13-second period, combined energy of 842. The wind is a light offshore from the WSW – glassy. The period is long, which means more energy and better shaped waves

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