Sawtell-The Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks at Sawtell – The Island.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a mixed bag. The water’s sitting at about 68°, which is pretty much bang on average for the season, so nothing wild there. The real story is that this spot is an exposed point break that loves a solid S to SSE groundswell, and it’s about to get hammered. We’ve got a lot of swell energy coming through, but the timing and size are going to make it tricky for most surfers.

The first run of decent waves kicks off on the morning of Saturday the 4th. It’s clean, with a light cross-off breeze, and a S swell around 5ft coming in at 8 seconds. The wave energy is moderate at 424, and while it’s not huge, it’s a fun, clean start for the advanced crew.

Things ramp up quick. By Sunday the 5th and into Monday the 6th, the swell is building. Sunday morning is a bit messy with a fresh breeze, but by Monday we’re seeing solid 8ft S swell with the energy jumping into the thousands (1029 and 1279). The wind stays cross-off, keeping it clean, but that size is starting to push it out of beginner territory. Over 8ft and we’re talking expert-only.

The real standout, and I mean the one to circle on the calendar, is the morning of Tuesday the 8th of July. That morning is packing a 10ft swell from the SSE, with a long period of 11 seconds and massive wave energy of 3179. It’s an advanced-only affair—way too big for the average punter. The wind is cross-off and moderate, so the lines should be holding. But honestly, at that size on The Island, you need to know what you’re doing. This is a high-performance, expert wave. Expect crowds, ‘cause spots like this don’t stay empty when they’re pumping.

We then get a string of days with similar size through to the 10th, and then a drop-off. The morning of Saturday the 11th sees the swell ease to a more manageable 5ft from the SE, with an 8-second period and cleaner conditions on a light cross-off. The energy drops back to 436. That’s a good window for the strong intermediate who wants a piece without the terror.

Then we hit a quiet spell. From Sunday the 12th through Tuesday the 14th, the swell plummets. The morning of the 12th is glassy, with a tiny 3ft ESE swell, and I mean glassy—N wind at 3 mph with no chop. That’s a longboard or a sup session if you’re keen, but there’s not much push. By the 14th, it’s almost flat, with a 1ft wave.

After that lull, the next notable pulse arrives on the 15th of July. We’re back into 8ft SSE swell, but the wind is up around 15 to 18 mph from the SSW. It’s cross-off, but fresh. That keeps it in the “marginal” category for me—big, but a bit on the windy side.

The true second week highlight is the morning of Sunday the 19th of July. That’s 8ft of SSE groundswell at 11 seconds, with a gentle cross-off breeze, and wave energy at 1228. The combination of a clean, moderate-sized groundswell with light wind is the best balance of power and quality in the whole outlook. This is the one for experienced surfers who want a proper session without the 10ft+ chaos. Again, expect some company in the water.

So, to sum it up: the standout is the morning of Tuesday the 8th of July for the big-wave chargers, and the morning of Sunday the 19th of July for the experienced surfer wanting quality size with cleaner conditions. There’s a quiet gap from the 12th to the 14th with barely a ripple, but it’s not a dead zone forever.

Rusty.

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