Sawtell-The Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

To be honest, we’ve got a bit of a slow start and then a proper pulse of energy coming through, but the timing and conditions are going to be a serious test. The standout by far is a window around Tuesday, July 28th, but you’ve got to be patient and you’ve got to be skilled.

First up, we’re looking at Sawtell – The Island. It’s an advanced spot, fairly consistent, exposed to the swell, with an optimum direction from the southeast. The water temp is sitting at 67.8°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

The first few days are a write-off. Wednesday the 15th has tiny swell, only 0.3ft with a very long 16-second period, but the combined energy is a weak 9 – basically a lake. It stays poor through to the 17th, with small, junky short-period swell around 6.9ft to 8.2ft but the wind is a cross-offshore breeze, which keeps it clean, but the waves aren’t offering anything worthwhile. The energy is moderate (502 to 859), but the comments all say marginal.

We hit Saturday the 18th and the swell starts to build. The morning is a bit lumpy with a fresh cross-shore breeze, but by Saturday afternoon the swell is 8.2ft from the ESE at 10 seconds, and the energy jumps to 1675 – that’s a proper moderate push. The wind is still a cross-offshore fresh breeze, so it’s clean, but the forecast says it’s still marginal for this break.

Now, Sunday the 19th is where it gets big. 11.5ft from the ESE, 10-second period, and the energy is massive – 2792 in the morning and 4863 in the afternoon. That’s strong to very strong. The wind is cross-shore and fresh, creating some lumpy chop. The report says the swell is too big for this break. That’s expert territory only, and even then, it’s going to be a wild, powerful beast. Not for beginners.

Monday the 20th is still big, with 9.8ft in the morning (energy 3384), dropping to 7.9ft in the afternoon but still a cross-shore breeze. Still too big for the average surfer.

Then we get a sweet spot. Tuesday, July 21st: the swell drops to 5.9ft from the east, 10-second period, and the wind swings to a light cross-offshore (3 mph). The energy is 696, moderate, and the comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s the best window for a decent surfer. The wind is light, clean, and the swell has shape.

Wednesday, July 22nd morning is glassy – 0 mph wind, 4.3ft east swell, 10-second period, energy 333. That’s a lovely, clean morning for a longboard or a funboard. The afternoon goes onshore and turns to junk.

Thursday, July 23rd morning is also glassy, 3.6ft east swell, 9-second period, energy 206. Clean and small, but a nice little session.

Friday, July 24th morning has a clean 3.6ft east swell with a cross-offshore breeze, energy 213. Solid little wave for a cruiser.

The standout, and I mean the real standout, is Tuesday, July 28th. The morning session is a cracker: 5.6ft from the south, with a very long 12-second period. That’s a proper groundswell. The energy is 1286 – moderate to strong. The wind is a light cross-offshore breeze, and the report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is a true point-break or reef-style wave, and with that long period, the sets will be clean, powerful, and well-spaced. The paddle out will be easier between sets. This is the best wave on offer in the whole outlook. The afternoon gets chopped up by a moderate cross-shore, so get it in the morning.

After that, the swell fades. Wednesday the 29th still has a clean 3.6ft morning, but the energy is dropping. By Thursday the 30th, it’s back to 3.0ft and poor conditions.

Overall: the first week is a dud, then a big, dangerous, expert-only swell hits, followed by a few clean, smaller days, and then one absolute gem on the morning of Tuesday, July 28th. If you’re an experienced surfer and can wait, that’s your day.

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