Ronco do Mar Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook for Ronco do Mar is a tough one. We’ve got a 16-day window, but the first week and a half is basically a write-off. The water is sitting at 82°F, which is about 2°F warmer than usual for this time of year, so that’s a bit notable for a reef break like this.

The pattern starts with a weak, short-period wind swell from the East. The combined energy of all swells directed here is weak, barely cracking 145 (moderate wave energy) on the Wednesday morning, but it’s all downhill from there. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf conditions from the 5th of August right through to the 16th. The wind is a constant problem – mostly cross or cross-onshore, and at 12 to 19 mph, it’s choppy and lumpy. The swell is small, between 3 ft and 5 ft, with a period of just 4 to 6 seconds, offering no real power or shape. The surf is just not happening.

There is a glimmer of hope but it’s a long way off. Around the 17th of August, we finally see a bit more energy. The swell picks up to 5 ft from the East, and the combined energy jumps to 224 (moderate wave energy). The period stretches to 6 or 7 seconds, which is still short, but it’s an improvement. The real problem is the wind. It’s still cross-shore at 15 to 19 mph, so the wave quality is going to be messy and lumpy. The 19th of August sees the strongest energy of the whole run, hitting 307 (moderate wave energy) with a 5 ft swell from the East, but again, fresh cross-shore winds are going to ruin it.

The only semi-decent window is the morning of the 20th of August. The wind swings to a cross-offshore from the SE at 15 mph, which will clean things up. That swell is 5 ft from the East with a 6-second period, and the combined energy is 200 (moderate wave energy). It’s listed as marginal, so it’s not a standout, but it’s the only time the conditions line up for a possible surf. The rest of the time, the setup is just too rough.

If you’re a kite surfer, the consistent cross and cross-onshore winds and the choppy, lumpy water might look interesting. For paddle surfing, there’s really nothing to get excited about for the first week and a half. The last few days are better but still far from perfect. The forecasts can change, but right now, don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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