Rodanthe Pier Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get real about the surf outlook for Rodanthe Pier over the next couple of weeks. I've got to be straight with you—this is a tough one to write. The models are showing a real flat spell, and for the majority of this forecast period, we are looking at barely a ripple.

Right off the bat, the first recommendation doesn't come until Monday the 17th of August, and even then, it's a tough sell. We're looking at a tiny 1 ft ESE swell with a weak energy reading of just (18). On top of that, the wind is a cross-off from the SSW at 16 mph with a risk of thunderstorms. The water temperature is sitting at 82° with a 1° anomaly, so pretty much average for this time of year, but the surf itself is just "poor." Honestly, this isn't a session you'd paddle out for.

We grind through a whole run of tiny waves and poor conditions right through the rest of August. Tuesday the 18th, Wednesday the 19th, Thursday the 20th, Friday the 21st—all offering up ankle-snappers with energy readings barely breaking 40. There is a brief moment of calm on the morning of Thursday the 20th with glassy conditions and zero wind, but the swell is a pathetic 1 ft with an 8-second period. It's clean, but there's nothing to ride.

The pattern of small, weak, and often windy conditions drags on. We see some "clean" conditions on the 21st and 22nd, but the swell height is stuck at less than 1 ft. It's frustrating. There are several days here with absolutely no surf worth talking about.

Now, hold on, because there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but you've got to be patient. Around Wednesday the 26th of August, things start to change. The combined swell energy jumps to (122) and (123) as a pulse of ESE swell pushes in at 1 to 2 ft. The period stretches out to a very long 15 seconds on Wednesday morning. This is a classic groundswell signal, which means better shaped waves, but at a beach break like this, that long period might make it break a bit too straight. Still, the wind is a clean cross-off, so it's the most interesting it's been.

Thursday the 27th of August looks like the standout for this whole forecast. We see the swell size bump up to 2 to 3 ft from the ESE with a 12-second period and a solid energy reading of (176). The wind holds as a cross-off from the SSW at 22 mph. It's a bit breezy, but the direction is good, keeping things clean. For a beach break, that's a solid combination. This is about as good as it gets for the next two weeks, but keep in mind the crowds here are listed as "sometimes," so expect company if the waves show.

After that little flurry, it fades fast. By Friday the 28th, the wind swings onshore from the N and the swell drops back down. The first week of September starts with more of the same: small, short-period windswell and lumpy, messy conditions. The energy drops back into the 30s and 60s, with the swell barely making it to 3 ft on Tuesday the 1st of September, but with a terrible 5-second period. It's a long, bleak run with no real standouts after that Thursday.

The bottom line: For the next couple of weeks, if you are a surfer, your window is narrow. Focus on Thursday the 27th of August for the most size and energy. Everything else is either flat, messy, or both. It's one of those stretches where the forecast can change, so keep an eye on it, but don't hold your breath.

Rusty.

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