Roads End Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next couple of weeks at Roads End are looking pretty bleak for anyone chasing a proper wave. The water’s sitting at 52°F, which is a full 7°F colder than normal for this time of year – that’s not just a chill, that’s a proper bite. You’ll want a thick hood and gloves, no two ways about it.

We’re looking at a long, flat spell to kick things off. From Saturday the 15th right through until Wednesday the 19th, there’s barely a ripple worth paddling for. Swell’s hovering around 2ft to 2ft, with light cross-onshore winds messing up what little texture there is. The wave energy is weak, reading between 247 and 385, and honestly, it’s just not worth the rubber. This is a solid five-day stretch with nothing on offer.

Things start to stir a little from Thursday the 20th. The swell bumps up to 4ft to 5ft from the WNW, with a period of around 11 seconds. That’s a touch more life in it, and the combined energy climbs into the moderate range, around 577 to 579. The wind is still a light cross-on from the NW, so it won’t be glassy, but it’s the best we’ll see for a while. Still, the guidance calls it marginal – questionable tide and all that – so don’t get too excited. It’s a “maybe a few clean ones if you’re patient” kind of day.

The rest of that week and into the weekend stays pretty average. Friday the 21st drops back down, and Saturday the 22nd is more of the same – small, cross-shore, short-period slop. The week after, from the 24th onwards, the models hint at a pulse of longer-period swell – 18 seconds – but the energy drops right off. We’re talking 2ft waves and moderate cross-shore winds. It’s a tease. The period is long, which would be great for a point or reef, but Roads End is a beach and reef set-up, and long-period stuff can break too straight. Plus, with the onshore/cross chop, it’s just messy.

Towards the tail end, around Wednesday the 26th and into the weekend of the 30th, there’s some size – 6ft to 6ft – but it’s short-period (7-8 seconds) windswell, and the wind is a steady 12 to 19 mph cross-shore. That’s a chop-fest. The energy readings get up there, like 653 on the 30th, but it’s all that short-period, wind-blown stuff. For a paddler, this looks more like a kite-surfing afternoon than a surf session. The break consistency is “fairly consistent,” but that just means there’s always something to mess with you, not that it’s good.

Honestly, the standout – and I use that term loosely – is the Thursday the 20th morning session. It’s the only time the swell size, period, and wind all line up to give you a chance at a clean-ish wave. Everything else is either too small, too messy, or too blown out. The following week is a write-off, and the only thing that might save us is a change in the forecast. Hang in there, but don’t plan your life around it. This is one of those stretches where the board stays in the car.

Rusty.

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