Roads End Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve got to be straight with you – if you’re chasing surf at Roads End over this forecast period, you’re going to be mostly disappointed. The first week is a write-off, with barely a ripple worth paddling for. The only real glimmer comes at the very tail end of the 16-day window, with a few promising sessions around the 10th and 11th of September.

Right now, through the 27th to the 31st of August, it’s grim. Swell is tiny, 1 ft to 3 ft from the SW, with a period that’s all over the shop. The wind is mostly cross-onshore, messing up what little wave there is. You’re looking at either ‘poor surf conditions’ or just ‘marginal’ – definitely not worth suiting up for.

Then we hit a bit of a blank run from the 1st of September. The swell starts to build – 4 ft on Tuesday, climbing to 6 ft on Wednesday and 7 ft by Thursday – but the wind turns nasty. We’re talking fresh to moderate breezes from the S and SSW, smacking the surface into a choppy, lumpy mess. The combined wave energy gets up there, hitting 903 on Wednesday morning (moderate to strong energy), but honestly, with that wind, it’s more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle-friendly one. This setup is just messy.

From Friday the 4th through to Monday the 7th of September, the swell drops back a notch to the 4 ft to 5 ft range from the NW. The wind eases off, but it’s still mostly cross or cross-onshore. We get a few ‘marginal’ calls, and even one session on Saturday afternoon the 5th that’s rated as ‘clean’ with a light cross-offshore breeze from the SE. That’s a glimmer, but the swell period is short at 8 seconds, so the waves will be a bit weak and crumbly. Not exactly firing.

Now, the standout. The best bet of the entire outlook lands on Thursday the 10th of September and Friday the 11th of September. The swell drops back to a smaller 2 ft to 3 ft from the SW, but it’s a groundswell with a period of 16 and 15 seconds – that’s proper, long-period energy. The combined energy is solid – 509 on Thursday morning and 600 on Thursday afternoon (moderate energy). And here’s the key: the wind is glassy. Light airs from the SW on Thursday morning, and a 3 mph onshore from the W on Thursday afternoon. For Roads End (a beach and reef setup), that kind of clean, glassy surface is gold. It’ll be small, sure, but those long-period SW swells will wrap in and offer some clean, fun little waves. I’d be eyeing Thursday afternoon and Friday morning as the best two sessions of the whole 16 days. Keep in mind, with the period that long (over 15 seconds), the waves might throw a bit straight on a beach break, but Roads End’s reef elements should help shape them up. Crowds are possible – it’s a ‘sometimes’ spot. The water temp is a shocking 49°F, which is a massive 10° colder than usual for this time of year – so bring the thickest rubber you’ve got.

After that, Friday the 11th afternoon shows a bump back up to 5 ft from the NW with a short 9-second period, but the wind goes cross-shore again. It’s an option, but not as clean as that Thursday/Friday sweet spot.

So, in short: forget the first week and a half. The real pick is Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th of September – small, but glassy, clean, and with proper long-period push. It’s late in the game and less certain, but worth a look.

Rusty.

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