Roaches Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The forecast for Roaches Reef is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got some pulses of swell coming through, but the wind’s going to be a real pain for most of it. The early part of the week is pretty much a write-off, but there are a couple of windows where things clean up enough to be worth a paddle.

Roaches Reef is fairly consistent, so it’s not like the surf is totally gone, but the quality is the issue. We’re looking at a real battle with the wind. The best bet by a long shot is Tuesday the 22nd.

Monday the 14th is a no-go. It’s 4ft of short-period, messy WSW swell (combined wave energy 281) with a cross-onshore wind. Poor surf conditions with moderate cross-onshore chop. The afternoon is even smaller at 3ft and junk. Tuesday the 15th sees the size jump a bit to 5ft from the W, and the winds go cross-off, making for clean faces. But with a combined wave energy of 238 and a short period, it’s just not doing much. Still gets a 0.

Wednesday the 16th morning brings the first real spike in energy. We’ve got 5ft from the W with a 10-second period, and the combined wave energy jumps to 787 (moderate). The wind is cross-off and clean, which is a big positive, but the scoring says it’s marginal due to tide issues. It’s the first glimmer of hope. Thursday the 17th is back to short period slop, and Friday the 18th is lumpy with fresh cross-onshore wind.

Saturday the 19th sees the swell push up to 6ft, but it’s still short period and cross-shore. The energy is getting stronger at 302-346, but the conditions are holding it back.

Then we get a nice little anomaly on Sunday the 20th. The swell drops to 3ft from the WSW with a 7-second period, and the combined wave energy is weak at 114. But the wind goes glassy in the morning from the NE at only 3 mph. That’s a rare moment of total calm, and the report says surfable but very ordinary. It’s small but clean if you need a fix.

The standout is Tuesday the 22nd. We get a 6ft swell from the W with a short 6-second period (combined energy 233). Now, the period is short, so the waves will be a bit weak and more sectiony. But the wind is offshore from the NNW at 6 mph, which will make for very clean conditions. The morning session scores well, calling for good surf conditions. This is your best window for Roaches Reef in this entire 16-day stretch. It’s only for intermediate surfers because of the short period making it a bit soft, but the clean faces will be a treat.

After that, things taper off. Wednesday the 23rd is tiny and weak. Thursday the 24th is even smaller. Friday the 25th has a weird long-period swell (14 seconds) from the W at only 2ft, which is too small to do anything with, and the cross-shore wind chops it up. The long period on a reef break like this would usually be great, but there’s just no size.

Looking further into the future, Sunday the 27th is worth keeping an eye on. The forecast shows 8ft from the WSW with a combined wave energy of 861 in the morning and 1594 in the afternoon (strong energy). That’s a lot of water moving. The period jumps to 11 seconds in the afternoon, which is proper groundswell. But the catch is the cross-onshore wind from the ESE at 15-25 mph, making it choppy. This much swell (8ft) is entering expert territory, and with the onshore wind, it’s going to be a beast. It might be more suited for tow-in or just watching a big, messy show.

The very end of the window, Monday the 28th, shows a drop back to 4ft with light cross-shore winds, and Tuesday the 29th is a return to poor conditions.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is mostly about battling wind and short-period slop for small returns. You’ve got one clear shot on Tuesday the 22nd with clean offshore wind. The second week brings a big, powerful swell on the 27th, but it’s onshore and only for the brave. Don’t get your hopes up for much else.

Rusty.

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