Roaches Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your wetsuit, let’s get into it.

We’re looking at a pretty quiet stretch ahead here. The forecast is lean, with surf kicking off small and never really firing, so don’t get your hopes up for anything epic. Water temp is sitting at 66°, which is a solid 6° warmer than what we’d usually see at this time of year – that’s very unusual, feels more like a late summer holdover than early autumn.

Friday morning the 11th is your best bet for a paddle. Roaches Reef has a clean 4 ft swell from the WSW, period at 9 seconds off a light cross-offshore NW breeze at 19 mph. Combined swell energy is moderate at 277. It’s the only real window with anything decent, and even then it’s pretty small. This break is fairly consistent and exposed to the SW swell which lines up with the direction we’re getting.

From Friday afternoon onward, it goes pear-shaped. That breeze swings onshore or messy, and the swell drops, with all the scores tanking. Saturday the 12th stays lumpy and bumpy with an 19-22 mph SW cross-on wind. Sunday the 13th morning is clean but weak – 4 ft with a cross-off – surfable but ordinary.

We get a glimpse of slightly bigger energy midweek. Thursday the 17th morning shows a clean 6 ft from the west, period short at 7 seconds and with moderate breeze, energy climbing to 310. By the afternoon it’s hitting 7 ft and 439, but the quality still gets the thumbs down, so don’t expect anything hollow or organised. That size is at the upper end for intermediates; beginners might want to sit that one out.

From the 19th onward it’s tiny – under 3 ft most days – and the period flops around. By the 23rd we get a long-period 13-second pulse from the WSW, but it’s only 1 ft, so not doing anything. With that long period and tiny height, it’ll be weak and hard to ride at this reef setup. There’s a clean, glassy morning on the 25th of September but with just 0.7 ft on offer, you’re better off taking the camera than the board.

Honestly, there’s nothing in the second week that lights a fire. The whole 16-day window is a mostly flat, weak run, with only the first Friday morning and maybe the Thursday the 17th worth a look if you’re desperate. For most of it, you’re waiting for something that never really arrives. Forecasts can change, but right now this is about as quiet as it gets around here.

- Rusty

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