Point Arena Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the surf ahead. It’s a tough stretch, no way around it. The start of this run is a write-off. We’re looking at a few days of mush and chop before things even think about cleaning up. The water’s sitting at 56°F, which is a bit colder than usual for this time of year, so bring the hood if you’re keen.

We’ve got a pulse of energy showing up for Sunday the 9th, a couple of days out. Swell jumps to 8ft, but it’s coming with a fresh cross-offshore breeze and the period is only around 9 seconds. It’s got some push, with the energy reading 1104, but the forecast notes it’s marginal, with questionable tides mucking it up. It’s not going to be pretty, but there’s something to look at.

The real window, the one that’s worth circling on the calendar, is Wednesday morning the 12th. The wind swings light and onshore, but it’s weak, and the swell holds at 8ft from the NW with a 9-second period. The energy is solid at 1192. It’s still rated as marginal, but with such light wind, it’s the best chance we get in the first week. The reef at Point Arena (Mendocino) will be handling the size, but it’s not for the faint of heart. It’s a proper reef break and the size is pushing it. The crowds could be a factor, as it’s a spot that sees people when it’s clean.

After that, the bottom falls out. There’s a long, drawn-out gap of poor conditions. We’re talking day after day of small, weak, and messy waves. The energy drops, the swell fades, and the wind just keeps messing with any chance of a clean face. This flat spell runs from around the 14th through the 17th, with nothing but knee-to-waist-high dribble.

Then, on Tuesday the 18th, the swell direction shifts and the period jumps up. It’s still small, but there’s a hint of life. Wednesday the 19th looks more promising, with a longer-period NW swell at 6ft. The energy is back up over 1000, and while the wind is still cross-shore, it’s light. The period is 12 seconds, which brings better shape, but at a reef, you can get some walled-up sets. It’s a look, not a guarantee.

The second week is all about promise and uncertainty. The long-range models show something happening, but we’ve been burned before. The setup on the 19th is the standout from that part of the forecast, but it’s a “keep an eye on it” kind of deal, not a “book the day off” one. The swell is there, the size is manageable, but it needs to clean up.

The wind, the chop, the lack of real period – it’s been a frustrating run. But there are always waves out there, and when the forecast flips, we’ll be ready. Stay patient, check the buoys when you can, and don’t get too attached to any one day this far out.

Rusty out.

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