Manchester Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me get into this. Looking at the data for Manchester Beach, it's a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks. We’ve got some solid swell on the way, but the wind is just not playing ball for most of it. The real kicker is that the best waves are all going to be too big for this spot, or the wind is going to ruin it. Let's break it down.

First up, the water temperature here is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual to report.

We start off with a rough patch. From Friday July 31st right through the weekend until Monday August 3rd, the wind is a nightmare – onshore and strong, blowing straight into the beach. The swell is building, but it's a complete write-off for surfing. Expect messy, blown-out conditions. The combined wave energy is moderate (795) on Friday rising to strong (2772) by Sunday, but with that onshore wind, it's just a washing machine. The bigger picture here is that it's kitesurfing weather, not paddle surfing.

Then we get a glimmer of hope on Tuesday, August 4th. The wind swings around to a light cross-offshore breeze from the SSW at 9 mph, and the swell is still a solid 8 ft out of the northwest with a 9-second period. The combined energy is strong (1236). The report says "expect very good surf conditions," and the wind is clean. This is your best bet for the whole forecast period. But here’s the catch: at 8 ft, this is getting into expert-only territory. It's a big, powerful wave for a beginner.

After that, Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday look a bit marginal, with the wind turning more cross-shore and the swell backing off a touch. The energy drops to moderate (931) and then (678). By Thursday, it's a bit of a mess again with light cross-shore winds and weakening swell down to 4 ft. The energy is weak (291).

Then we hit a long, quiet period. From Friday August 7th all the way through to Monday August 10th, the swell dips to almost nothing. We’re talking 1 ft to 3 ft waves with a very long period (16-19 seconds) from the south-southwest, but the energy is weak (around 182-508). This is just flat, or close to it. A long period swell like that at a beach break will just straighten out and offer no shape.

The following week continues to be weak. From Tuesday August 11th to Saturday August 15th, we see some small pulses of energy, but nothing that overcomes the persistent onshore or cross-shore winds. The combined energy is mostly moderate (around 482-1110), but the swell sizes are small (2 ft to 4 ft) and the wind is never clean enough to make it worthwhile. The best you could hope for is a marginal, bumpy session on a small wave.

So, to sum it up: the only day that stands out as truly surfable is Tuesday, August 4th in the morning. The wind is clean and the swell is substantial. But it’s a big day for experts only. For the rest of the 16-day window, it’s a lot of waiting for the wind to cooperate. The forecast can change, but as it stands, it’s a pretty bleak run.

Rusty

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