Oswald State Park/Short Sands Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, let me tell you about the stretch ahead. We’re looking at a real mixed bag, and I’ll be honest, the first week or so is a bit of a write-off. The water is sitting at 55°F at Oswald State Park/Short Sands, which is 4°F colder than normal for this time of year – that’s much colder than average, so you’ll want a thick suit.

We’re starting off with a period of really poor conditions. From Tuesday, the 21st, through to the end of the month, the surf is just not cooperating. On Tuesday morning, we have a tiny 2ft SW groundswell with a long 16-second period, but it’s ruined by a 9 mph cross-onshore wind making it choppy. The wave energy is weak (333), and it’s just not worth it. This pattern continues day after day – small, weak swell, and almost always a cross-onshore or cross wind. The swell does get a little bump on the 23rd and 24th, with some 4ft to 4ft NW swell, but the winds are still messy, making for marginal, poor surf. It’s a real grind.

Then, we see a glimmer of hope. On Saturday morning, the 25th of July, the stars finally align. A clean 2ft SW groundswell rolls in with a very long 23-second period. The wind goes light and cross-offshore, and the energy jumps to a solid 375. The report says "expect good surf conditions". This is a proper long-period groundswell, so it’ll have plenty of energy and shape, but it might break a bit straight on the beach. For a point break or reef, it’d be a dream, but here at Short Sands, just be ready for some long lulls between sets.

The real standout, though, is Sunday afternoon, the 26th of July. The wind goes glassy – zero wind – and the swell is a clean 3ft from the SW with a 19-second period. The combined energy hits 655, which is a solid moderate energy. The report says "expect very good surf conditions". This is your best bet of the entire 16-day window. The glassy conditions will make it absolutely perfect, clean faces all the way. If you can only get one session, this is it.

After that, it’s a slow fade. Monday the 27th through Wednesday the 29th still has some waist-high SW swell, but the cross-onshore winds creep back in, making it messy again. By the end of the month and into August, the swell drops off completely, the wind stays strong and cross, and the energy plummets to weak levels (under 200). The first week of August is just a total write-off with tiny, choppy, poor surf.

So, to sum it up: there’s a long gap of poor surf from now until the 24th. The best on offer is the glassy session on Sunday afternoon, the 26th, with Saturday morning, the 25th, as a decent second option. After that, it’s back to a long run of nothing. Don’t hold your breath for the second week – it’s a solid dud.

Rusty.

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