Oswald State Park/Short Sands Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The next sixteen days are looking like a tough stretch for getting a decent wave around here. We’ve got a lot of swell on the way, but the wind is going to be messing things up for the most part.

The first couple of days are a write-off. We’ve got some small, short-period swell on Friday and Saturday, but it’s trapped under a cross-onshore breeze that’s just chopping it all up. The wave energy is weak, sitting around 268 and 179 in the morning. It’s messy and not worth your time.

We start to see a bit more push on Sunday the 2nd as the swell bumps up to about 5ft, and the energy climbs a bit to 428. But the wind is still a problem, going onshore in the morning. It’s marginal at best. The afternoon gets worse with a cross-shore breeze and a bigger, lumpy 5ft swell, pushing the energy to 460. It’s just not clean.

The whole of the first full week is more of the same story. Swell energy stays mostly in the moderate range, from the 200s to the 600s, but the wind never seems to get out of the northwest quadrant. This keeps a cross or cross-onshore flow over the break, leaving the surface bumpy. The wave heights hover around 4ft to 6ft, but with these winds, it’s going to be a battle. The best call of the week is probably Thursday the 6th and Friday the 7th when the wind drops off a bit and we get some light onshore or cross-onshore conditions. It’s still only marginal, but with that 6ft of W-WNW swell and the energy in the 550-620 range, it’ll at least have some push. For a beginner, that size is pushing the limits, and the quality is not going to be there for a fun session.

Heading into the second week, the size backs off. We see a solid drop to 4-5ft through Monday and Tuesday, but the energy stays moderate. The wind doesn't improve, though, so it's still mostly poor. Then around Wednesday the 12th, we get a significant shift. The swell gets smaller, dropping under 3ft, but the period jumps right up to 15 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, and it’s coming from the west. This is interesting because the guidance says this break is exposed to a SW swell. This W swell is a bit off-angle, and with those long 14-15 second periods, the waves might be a little too straight and fat to be great here.

The water is sitting at 59°F, which is spot on average for this time of year, so no surprises there in the neoprene department.

Look, I’m not going to sugarcoat it. There are no real standouts in this 16-day window. The most promising conditions are those couple of days around the 6th and 7th, but even then, it's a “make the most of it” situation rather than a day to call in sick for. The swell is there, but the wind gods are not cooperating. If you’re desperate, you could have a look at Oswald State Park/Short Sands on Thursday the 6th. The 6ft WNW swell is the biggest of the week and the light onshore wind will be the least bad we see. It’ll be a bit of a grinder, but there could be a few fun ones if you’re willing to work for them. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game.

Signing off, Rusty.

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