Molho Leste Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a long, hard look at what’s coming our way for the next couple of weeks. I’m gonna level with you straight up: this is a rough stretch. We’ve got a whole lot of waiting around with not much to show for it. The swell energy is gonna be weak for the vast majority of the forecast, and the conditions are often pretty average. There’s not a true standout here; we’re basically looking at one short window that might be worth a paddle if you’re desperate, and one distant possibility way out at the end of the calendar.

The first real flicker of hope doesn’t arrive until Wednesday the 29th of July. Early that morning at Molho Leste, we’ll see some tiny 1 ft swell from the NW, with a period of 9 seconds. The wind is a light offshore from the N, keeping things clean, but the combined energy is only moderate at 131. It’s surfable, but it’s very ordinary. Don’t get your hopes up. That’s about as good as it gets in the near term, and it won’t last. By the afternoon, a moderate cross-shore kicks up and mucks it up. The rest of that week and into the start of August is a write-off of tiny waves, poor conditions, and mostly moderate to fresh breezes that just mess with the surface. The water temp is sitting at 70°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

After that weak session, we’re looking at a long, dry gap. From the 30th of July all the way through the first week of August, it’s a desert. There’s nothing worth mentioning. We get a slight bump on the 5th of August, with 3 ft from the WNW, but the period is short at 8 seconds and the energy is still weak (89). Even with a cross-offshore breeze, the wave comment tells me it’s poor.

Now, for the long-range stuff. We have to wait until the 9th of August, a Sunday. This is the one that might have a bit of spark. Swell starts to lift, with 4 ft from the NW that morning and 4 ft from the WNW in the afternoon. The period stays around 10 seconds, and the combined energy jumps into the moderate range (255 then 301). But here’s the killer: the wind is a moderate cross-shore the whole day. It’s gonna be messy. The larger size (up to 4 ft) isn't enough to call it big, but it’s more than the rest of the run. It’s still not a green light, though.

To be honest, the only session that might have some glassy potential is the morning of the 10th of August. Early that Monday, the wind drops to dead calm – glassy conditions. There’s still a 3 ft swell from the WNW, with a 9 second period and moderate energy (156). The devil is in the detail for a sandbar though: the swell is a short-period groundswell, and that long lull between set waves might make it tricky to get into a rhythm. Then the wind swings onshore from the W in the afternoon and ruins it.

So there you have it. The pick of a very poor bunch is the morning window on Wednesday, 29 July, for a clean but tiny session, and the very distant, less-certain morning on 10 August if the glass holds. This is one of those periods where you’re better off checking the charts again in a few days, because it tends not to stay this flat for long. But right now? It’s grim.

Stay patient,
Rusty

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