Mihai Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this 16-day window for Mihai is a tough one. The forecast is a long, flat, and messy run for the most part, with the wind and swell just not lining up for any real quality. We’re looking at a big gap of nothing before things even start to look interesting.

The first stretch, from now through the middle of the month, is pretty much a write-off. The swell is small, mostly around the 3ft to 5ft mark, but it’s coming in from the ESE and the wind is blowing on or cross-on, which chops everything up. It’s poor surf conditions, plain and simple. The energy is weak to moderate, around 130 to 470 (moderate wave energy), and the period is short, mostly 7 to 9 seconds, so there’s no push behind it. You’d be fighting the wind for nothing. The water temp is 80°, which is about average for the time of year, so that’s not the issue.

The wind stays onshore or cross-onshore through the 14th, and we don’t see any real change. The swell gets a bit more consistent but still messy. It’s a frustrating stretch of small, short-period, onshore slop.

Then, on the 15th of August, things finally try to wake up. The swell starts to build from the south, and the energy jumps into the strong range. On Saturday morning the 15th, we’re seeing a 4ft S swell with a 16-second period, and the combined energy is up to 1011 (strong wave energy). The afternoon pushes it a bit more, with 5ft S swell and a 14-second period, energy at 1222 (strong wave energy). This is the standout period of the whole run. The wind is still cross-on, which is a bit of a letdown, but the long period and the size mean there’s real power. This is the one to watch, but it’s still a “marginal” call, so keep your expectations in check.

After that, the swell stays from the south but the energy drops back off, and the wind stays cross-on. The 16th and 17th have some moderate S swell, but it’s still choppy. The 18th and 19th fade out again, back to small, weak, and onshore junk.

So, the only real window is the 15th of August. Mihai is a river break, exposed to the south, which is spot on for this swell direction. It’s fairly consistent, but it’s a beginner-plus wave, and with 5ft of south swell, it’s still manageable for the more experienced, but it could be a bit much for total beginners. The long period from the south is good for a river mouth, keeping the waves lining up. The crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might get a few out, but it’s not going to be packed.

The rest of the run? You’re better off doing something else. The forecast can change, but as it stands, this is a long wait for a single, promising day.

Rusty out.

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