Merewether - Ladies Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for our local patch. It’s a bit of a slow burner, but there’s a solid pulse of energy coming through if you’re patient.

The early part of the outlook is a write-off, to be honest. We’ve got a few days of lumpy, onshore junk. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are messy with a moderate breeze blowing straight onto the shore, making for poor surf conditions. The swell is there, around 5 ft to 7 ft, but it’s short-period windswell and the wind is just ruining it. You’d be fighting a losing battle.

Then things start to get interesting. Monday the 20th morning is where we get our first real standout. Merewether - Ladies (Merewether-Ladies) cleans right up. We’re looking at a clean 5 ft swell from the east with a 10-second period, but the wind goes glassy – dead calm. That’s a major positive. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual to report. The combined swell energy is a solid moderate 556 (moderate wave energy). It’s a very consistent reef break that’s exposed to the ESE swell, and with those conditions, it’s going to be super clean. Just a heads up, it can get a crowd sometimes, so get in early.

The rest of that week drops off quickly. Tuesday through to the end of the week sees the swell fade right down to a dribble, mostly under 3 ft. There are a few windows with clean, offshore winds (like Wednesday the 22nd morning and Thursday the 23rd morning), but the wave heights are tiny – 2 ft to 2 ft. It’s surfable if you’re desperate, but it’s not worth paddling out for.

We go through a long, flat gap of several days where the energy is just too weak to get excited about. The real event is a long way out.

Now, here’s the one that’s got my blood pumping. Looking way ahead to Friday the 31st of July, we get a massive pulse of south swell. The early morning session is going to be the pick of the whole 16 days. Merewether - Ladies is looking at a potent 12 ft swell from the south with a 12-second period, and the wind is offshore from the WNW. The combined swell energy is a whopping 6434 (strong wave energy). That is powerful, long-period groundswell. This is an expert-only zone. 12 ft is too big for beginners, and on a reef, it’s going to be a heavy, serious wave. The period is over 11 seconds, so that’s proper groundswell with plenty of punch. The offshore wind will have it looking like a dream. The afternoon session gets a bit choppy with a cross-onshore breeze, so the morning is the absolute winner.

The energy carries into the weekend, but the wind turns against us. Saturday the 1st of August is still big, with 10 ft to 8 ft, but the onshore wind makes it marginal. Sunday the 2nd of August morning is another standout for experts: a glassy 13 ft south swell with the same powerful energy reading of 5906 (strong wave energy). It will be clean and perfect, but again, that’s for the experienced crew only.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off until Monday morning. The real gold is that Friday the 31st of July and Sunday the 2nd of August mornings. Mark your calendars. The long-range outlook is promising but, as always, keep an eye on it as we get closer.

Rusty.

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