Mckenzies Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, surf’s up… or not just yet. Looking at the run ahead, we’ve got a slow start, a messy middle, and then a proper little window of glory that’s worth circling on the calendar. Let’s break it down day by day, but first, the big picture: this stretch is mostly about waiting. The water’s sitting at 63° – that’s about normal for this time of year, nothing wild there. But the waves? They’re all over the shop for the first week and a half.

We kick off this Sunday the 13th with nothing doing. Tiny 2ft, short-period junk from the SSE, and a cross breeze that’s messing with it. Combined energy is weak at 100, so you’re looking at flat, bumpy leftovers. The afternoon bumps up to 5ft, but it’s a NE windswell with a 6-second period and a 25 km/h cross-shore chop. Not worth the paddle.

Monday the 14th is still poor – 2.5ft to 3ft, cross-off breeze, but the period is only 7 seconds and the energy is moderate at best (129). It’s clean-ish, but there’s barely a wave to push you along. Tuesday morning the 15th is the first glimmer – 3ft, glassy, and a 7-second period. It’s surfable, but it’s very ordinary, and the energy is only 128. By Tuesday afternoon, a 30 km/h south breeze kicks up 6ft of lumpy chop with 335 energy. That’s a no-go.

Wednesday the 16th sees the swell build but the wind wrecks it. 6.5ft in the morning, 8ft in the afternoon, but it’s all cross and cross-on with 35 km/h winds. Energy jumps to 469 and then 898 – that’s a lot of power – but it’s raw and ugly. Thursday the 17th drops to 5.5ft, but it’s still cross-on and choppy. The afternoon is marginal with a 9-second period, but the onshore breeze keeps it messy.

Friday the 18th fades fast – 3.5ft dropping to 2ft. Poor conditions all day. Saturday the 19th is tiny – 1.5ft with a 10-second period in the morning, but it’s clean. The energy is only 59, so you’re basically floating. Sunday the 20th is flat – 1.5ft at best, cross-off but nothing to ride. Monday the 21st gives you a small 3ft glassy window in the morning with a 7-second period, but it’s still very ordinary. The afternoon picks up a 25 km/h cross breeze and messes it up.

Tuesday the 22nd is poor again – 2ft to 2.5ft, short period, weak energy. Wednesday the 23rd is where it starts to feel a little more real. Still small – 1.5ft to 2.5ft – but it’s clean, cross-off, with a 9 to 10-second period. The energy is low (95 to 109), so don’t get excited, but at least the water looks inviting.

Then comes the ugly stretch from Thursday the 24th through Saturday the 26th. Rain, onshore winds, and a jump in swell that’s all wrong. Thursday afternoon sees 7.5ft of NE swell with a 6-second period and 533 energy – lumpy, cross-on, and messy. Friday the 25th stays in the 5ft to 6ft range with NE energy, but it’s still cross-on junk. Saturday the 26th is cross-shore, 5.5ft, with a 9-second period – marginal at best, but the wind is blowing 20 km/h from the NE and it’s not clean.

Alright, now here’s where it gets good. Sunday the 27th is the standout. The morning starts with 3.5ft of S swell at 10 seconds, cross-off, light breeze, and the energy is moderate at 304. The waves are starting to line up. But the afternoon? That’s the one to chase. 5ft, S swell, 10-second period, glassy conditions, and energy jumps to 728. That’s the best combination of size, power, and clean faces you’re going to see in this whole run. Mckenzies Beach (point) is going to be handling that S swell nicely – it’s exposed to the SE, but the S direction is right in the pocket. This is the pick of the fortnight.

Monday the 28th is a letdown after that. Light rain, 20 km/h cross winds, 5ft but with a 9-second period and energy at 469 to 679. It’s still got some push, but the chop and cross wind will make it a battle. Marginal at best.

So, if you’re holding out for one window, it’s Sunday the 27th afternoon. The rest is a mix of flat, messy, or too windblown. And honestly, the long-range stuff – that Sunday the 27th call – is still a few days out, so treat it as promising but not locked in. Near-term, the next week

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