Mckenzies Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight up – it’s a lean run for Mckenzies Beach. This is a point break, very consistent, exposed to swell, and it likes it from the SE. But for most of the next 16 days, the wind and swell just aren’t lining up. We’ve got a long stretch of near-daily marginal or poor conditions, so don’t expect much action until the back half of the window. The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year.

We kick off on Saturday the 12th of September with tiny 2ft SSE swell at 10 seconds, but a cross-on ENE breeze is messing it up. Weak combined energy (115). This carries through Sunday the 13th – still small, messy cross-shore winds. The swell bumps up a little into Monday the 14th morning (4ft NE, 7 seconds), but it’s cross-shore and a bit choppy. That afternoon turns clean with a cross-off NNW breeze, but the swell drops to 3ft – just not enough punch to get excited about.

Tuesday the 15th is a write-off with cross-on wind and a lumpy 6ft SSE swell in the afternoon. Then Wednesday the 16th gets bigger – 7ft to 8ft S swell, but with fresh cross-shore and cross-on winds (up to 22 mph), it’s ugly. Combined energy jumps to 898 by Wednesday afternoon – moderate-strong energy but totally blown out. Thursday the 17th looks the first glimmer of hope: morning has light SE cross-on wind with a 6ft SSE swell at 9 seconds (455 energy), and it’s rated marginal. That afternoon turns even better – onshore E breeze at 6 mph with a 5ft SSE swell (355 energy). Still only marginal, but the cleanest we’ve seen.

Then we hit a flat spell. From Friday the 18th through to Tuesday the 22nd, the swell drops right off – mostly under 3ft, with periods as low as 4 seconds. Combined energy plummets to single and double digits. The wind varies but it’s mostly cross-on or cross-shore. Not worth paddling out for.

Wednesday the 23rd shows a small pulse of 4ft NE swell (109 energy) but again, cross-shore wind. Then things get interesting. Thursday the 24th of September morning: 5ft SSE swell at 7 seconds with a clean cross-off NNW breeze (250 energy) – best conditions of the whole run so far. That afternoon stays clean with a 5ft S swell. Still marginal, but clean surf is rare right now. Friday the 25th morning offers the standout: 5ft S swell at 9 seconds with light onshore E wind (399 energy) – clean, decent period, and the swell direction is right in the sweet spot for this break. This is your best bet for the whole 16 days.

The next few days are average, but then hold tight for Sunday the 27th of September morning. Glassy conditions with a light ESE breeze, 4ft ESE swell at 8 seconds, and combined energy of 281. The swell direction isn’t perfect, but glassy wins the day. It’s the only “good” rating in the whole window. That Sunday morning session is your other real highlight.

Bottom line: If you want clean waves, aim for Thursday the 24th morning, Friday the 25th morning, or Sunday the 27th morning at Mckenzies. The rest is small, choppy, or blown out. Stay patient.

Rusty.

Read more