Johanna Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’re looking at the next 16 days for Johanna, and it’s a tale of two very different halves. The first week is a write-off, but the second week has some serious potential if you’re willing to wait.

The forecast kicks off with a big, powerful, and messy swell. Wednesday the 12th through to the weekend of the 16th and 17th is pretty much a no-go. We’ve got a solid southwest swell running, with wave heights between 10ft and 16ft and combined energy readings that are well into the strong to very strong range (peaking at 12,932 on Thursday morning). The problem is the wind. It’s howling out of the west and southwest, smashing the surface up with cross-onshore and choppy conditions. This is a classic case of "look, don't paddle." With that much swell and wind, this setup is honestly more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing to write home about.

The real story starts Monday the 17th. The swell drops to a much more manageable 7ft to 8ft, and more importantly, the wind swings offshore. We’re talking light to gentle breezes from the northeast and east-northeast, which is the sweet spot for Johanna. The combined energy is still moderate (around 2,200 to 3,000), but the quality is excellent for experienced surfers. The swell direction is from the southwest, which is the optimum direction for this point. The period is a long 14 to 16 seconds, meaning proper groundswell energy coming through. This is the standout block of the next fortnight.

Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th keep the good times rolling. The swell holds around 7ft but drops to a more user-friendly 3ft to 4ft by Wednesday afternoon. The wind stays clean and offshore, with the combined energy dropping to a light 596. This is "expect very good surf conditions" territory. Crowds are often here, so get in early.

We get a brief resurgence on Thursday the 20th with a nice 4ft groundswell and a 16-second period under offshore winds. The energy is moderate (1,104), and the conditions are excellent. Friday the 21st through Saturday the 22nd sees a bit of a bump in swell to 7ft, but the wind picks up from the northwest, making it choppy and marginal. The longer-range outlook from the 23rd onwards has a massive 20-second period swell hitting on Sunday the 23rd, with 8ft waves and glassy conditions. That’s a standout for the experts, with exceptional conditions and a combined energy of 5,143. The final few days of the forecast show a return to big, powerful swells, but with clean or offshore winds, so the experts will have plenty to play with, though the size will be for the experienced crew only.

Signing off, Rusty.

Read more