Freshwater Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, crew, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat and grim for the vast majority of the time. We’ve got one window that shows a bit of life, but it’s a long way out, so don’t go planning your life around it just yet.

The early part of this stretch is a write-off. From Thursday the 6th right through until around Tuesday the 12th, we’re looking at tiny, weak surf. We’re talking ankle-biters mostly under 2ft, and even the bigger bumps are coming in with short, weak periods. The combined energy is almost nothing, mostly single digits and low double digits in the weak zone. It’s going to be a real fight for a crumbly little wave, if you can even find one. The winds are also mostly cross or onshore, chopping up what little is there. It’s a good time to clean your board, fix your fins, or go for a paddle – that’s about it.

Then, on the morning of Wednesday the 12th, there’s a tiny pulse. Freshwater Bay (Freshwater-Bay) wakes up to a wave around 3ft, but with only a 5-second period. The energy jumps a bit to 65, which is still weak, but it’s something. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the NE, which will keep it clean. It’s surfable, but honestly, it’s still pretty ordinary. This isn't the standout, just a little blip of hope. The afternoon backs off again.

We get another small bump early Sunday morning, the 16th. Another wave around 3.5ft, but again with a short 5-second period. The energy is moderate at 72, and the wind is offshore from the NNW, so the surface should be clean. It's another one of those “surfable but really ordinary” moments.

But here’s the one I’m actually talking about, the one that could be worth the wait. It’s mid-next week, remember that. On the morning of Wednesday the 19th and into Thursday the 20th, the swell finally decides to show up. We’re seeing waves around 5ft to 6ft on the Thursday afternoon. The combined energy jumps into the strong zone, with readings of 181 on Wednesday morning and hitting 280 by Thursday afternoon. This is the real deal energy-wise. The swell direction is WSW, which is close to the optimum SW for the break.

Now, the catch. The short period of 6 seconds means it’s going to be a bit fat and won't have that real grunt. Plus, this swell pushes the size over 5ft, so it’s getting a little too much for beginners. The winds are the issue, though. The Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon are looking cross-shore, which will put a chop on it. The mornings do have cross-offshore winds that will keep it cleaner. This is a promising, but less certain, long-range signal. Don’t book flights, but keep an eye on it.

After that, it fades quickly back to small, poor surf for the final days of the window.

Overall, it’s a bleak outlook. The only real standout is that pulse on the 19th and 20th. It’s got the energy and the size, and if the morning winds hold true, it could be the best – and only – worthwhile session in the entire 16 days. Let’s hope the models are onto something.

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