Freshwater Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's cookin' for Freshwater Bay.

To be straight with you, this 16-day window is a bit of a dry spell. We're looking at a stretch where the ocean just isn't giving us much to work with. The first real pulse of anything doesn't show up until late in the run, so we've got a lot of flat, frustrating days to get through first.

The water is sitting at 67°F right now, which is a solid 7°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That's a serious anomaly, feels more like a tropical bathtub than a typical July surf zone.

For the first week and a half, from Monday the 13th right through to the weekend of the 26th, it's a total washout. Most days the combined energy is in the single digits or low teens (0 to 62), with swell heights barely cracking 0.3ft to 4ft. That tiny swell is mostly short-period windswell from the east, bouncing around 4 or 5 seconds. It's just not doing anything for a reef and point setup. The wind is mostly cross or cross-onshore, so it's a messy, choppy, and flat affair. There's a brief moment on the morning of Wednesday the 22nd with glassy conditions and a light NNE breeze, but with only 0.3ft of swell, it's a flat calm, not a surfable wave.

The only real standout, and I use that term loosely, kicks off on Sunday the 26th of July. The morning sees a bit of a pulse from the southwest with a 1ft swell at 11 seconds, producing a combined energy of 42. It's small, but that longer period suggests some shape. The wind is a gentle cross-shore, so it'll be a bit lumpy but rideable for a longboard. Then, the afternoon of the 26th is the best we've got in the whole outlook. The swell picks up to 2ft from the WSW, and the combined energy jumps to 139 (moderate). The period is still 10 seconds, so it's a bit of a mix. The wind is a moderate cross-onshore, so it'll be choppy, but at least there's some push. It's nothing to write home about, but it's the only window with any real substance.

Going into Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th, we see a similar pattern. The swell stays around 2ft to 5ft, but the wind is either cross or cross-onshore, keeping it messy. On Tuesday the 28th, the morning shows a 4ft swell from the SW with a 5-second period and a combined energy of 94. It's a short, fat, weak wave. The afternoon bumps up to 5ft and 123 (moderate), but the wind is a moderate cross-shore, so expect a lumpy cross-chop. Because that swell is over 5ft, it's probably too much for beginners, and the short period will make it a bit of a close-out mess.

Honestly, if you're a paddle surfer, the best advice I can give is to wait for the afternoon of the 26th or the afternoon of the 28th. It's not great, but it's something. For the rest of the time, with that strong cross-shore wind and the weak, short-period swell, the setup at Freshwater Bay is looking more interesting for a kite surfer than a surfer. The forecast can always change, but as it stands, it's a tough two weeks.

Rusty.

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