Freshwater Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this 16-day window for Freshwater Bay (reef and point) is a tough one. The ocean is going to be angry, messy, or just plain flat for most of the run. The real story here is the weather, not the waves. We’ve got a massive warm water anomaly sitting offshore – the water temp is a whopping 4° warmer than usual for this time of year, hitting 69°. That’s very unusual and it’s going to stir up some wild, unstable conditions.

We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf. The first real window where you might even want to paddle out doesn’t show up until Sunday, August 30th, and even then it’s marginal. The best bet on offer is the Monday morning, August 31st session. We’ve got a 7ft swell from the WSW, but the period is a short 7 seconds, so it’s gonna be a bit of a dirty, lumpy groundswell. The wind is a cross-offshore from the west, which is about as clean as it gets for this spot, but it’s a fresh breeze at 19 mph. The combined wave energy is pumping at 537 – that’s strong energy, but it’s shifty and raw. This is for intermediate crew only; 7ft is pushing it for beginners. The swell direction is SW, which is actually the optimum for this break, so the reef and point should line up when it’s not completely blown out. Expect crowds as it's 'sometimes' busy.

If you miss that Monday window, there’s a brief, quieter chance on Friday, September 4th and Saturday, September 5th mornings. On Friday, a tiny 2ft from the WSW with a light offshore NW wind and a clean 8-second period – the energy is weak (64), but it’ll be glassy. On Saturday, we get a bit more size at 5ft, still WSW, with a perfect glassy offshore from the NNW and light airs. The energy is moderate (151). Both are 'surfable but very ordinary', meaning the waves are there, but the quality is just average. The reef might offer up a few clean lines if the wind holds.

The rest of the period is a write-off. From August 26th through the 29th, it’s all cross-onshore, near gale-force winds, and rain – the wave energy spikes to 903 on the 29th, but it’s a 10ft, blown-out mess. After that first week, from September 1st onwards, it’s mostly cross-shore chop, tiny waves, or full-on flat spells. The second week is a real dud – the best you’ll see is a 2ft clean-up on the 8th, but it’s fleeting.

In short, the only real chance for a decent, clean-ish surf is Monday morning (Aug 31) and the two glassy mornings on Sept 4th and 5th. The rest is for the kite surfers or the determined. The water is warm, the wind is fickle, and the swell is just not playing ball.

Rusty.

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