Freshwater Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Freshwater Bay look like a proper battle. We’ve got a lot of days where the wind is just going to ruin things, but there are a few windows where it could get really interesting, especially if you’re an experienced surfer willing to wait for a break in the weather.

The overall pattern is a long, drawn-out stretch of messy, blown-out conditions. There’s a big gap of poor surf quality from now through to the start of September. The first real hope comes on Monday, 31 August morning, but it’s only a marginal call. After that, there’s another lull until Thursday, 3 September morning, which again is poor. It’s a tough run.

The first standout that’s worth circling on your calendar is Monday morning, 31 August. The wind is a clean cross-offshore from the W at 19 mph, and we’ve got a 7 ft swell coming from the WSW with a moderate 8-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 560. This is a reef and point break, so that longer period groundswell energy will wrap in nicely, giving you proper shaped waves. The water is sitting at a very unusual 69°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year. Crowds are possible here from time to time. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best call in the near term for intermediate surfers.

Then, if you can hold out over a week, Tuesday, 8 September, is where things get serious. On the morning, we’re looking at a solid 10 ft swell from the WSW with an 8-second period, and the wind is a clean cross-off at 22 mph. The combined energy is strong at 1338. By the afternoon, it jumps to a beastly 12 ft swell from the WSW, period 9 seconds, and the combined energy is very strong at 2047. The wind stays clean cross-off at 19 mph. This is big, powerful stuff – over 8 ft, so it’s strictly for experts. The break quality here with a clean cross-off wind on that reef and point setup could be truly memorable. That morning session on the 8th of September is the standout call for the whole period.

There are a couple of other mornings, like Friday, 4 September with an 8 ft swell and clean wind, or Monday, 7 September afternoon with a 6 ft swell and clean wind, that are worthy mentions but not the main event. Everything else is a write-off: either too small, blown out by onshore winds, or just messy cross-chop. Don’t waste your energy on the days with strong cross-onshore winds and stormy conditions, especially around 29 August and 12 September – that’s more kite-surfing weather than paddle surfing.

Keep an eye on the long-range forecast for that 8 September window. It’s over a week away, so not locked in, but it has the potential to be the real deal.

Rusty.

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