Freshwater Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this is a rough stretch for Freshwater Bay. The next 16 days are looking pretty grim, with no standout sessions to get excited about. The forecast is basically a long run of small, weak, and messy surf, with a few brief moments that might get your heart racing a little, but nothing that’s going to have you calling in sick.

Right off the bat, Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th are a write-off. Tiny little waves, 0.7 ft to 1 ft, with cross-onshore winds making things choppy and unappealing. The combined swell energy is barely a whisper (39 and 18 on Monday, 21 and 59 on Tuesday). Not worth paddling out.

Wednesday the 5th does see a bit of a bump. The swell jumps to 5 ft in the morning from the WSW, with a short period of 6 seconds. The combined energy climbs to 191 (moderate), and the wind is cross-off, so it’ll be clean. The afternoon gets a bit bigger at 6 ft, but the wind swings cross and gets fresh, turning it lumpy. The short period (6 secs) means it’s going to be a bit of a washing machine, not the kind of wave that holds shape. It’s surfable, but not great.

Thursday the 6th morning is a ghost town—zero swell. The afternoon sees a 4 ft spike from the WSW, but again, short period (5 secs) and cross-shore wind make it a messy, lumpy affair. The energy is only 95 (weak).

Friday the 7th morning is a total tease. The swell is tiny, 1 ft, but the wind is glassy. It’s clean as a whistle, but there’s nothing to ride. A real shame.

The weekend and into the following week are more of the same: tiny waves, poor winds, and very low energy (single-digit and low double-digit numbers). The combined swell energy barely cracks 10 most of the time. You’ll see a few cleaner moments, like Sunday the 9th morning with a light NE breeze, but the swell is 0.3 ft. It’s a lake.

The 12th through the 14th show a little more promise. The swell bumps up to 3 ft on the 12th Wednesday morning, from the east, with a light W wind and clean conditions. Combined energy hits 52. It’s not big, but it’s the most interesting thing in the whole run. The wind goes offshore on the 14th Friday morning (NNW 15 mph), but the swell is back down to 1 ft.

The 16th (Sunday) morning sees a 4 ft swell from the WSW, with a 7-second period, and the energy jumps to 134 (moderate). The wind is a gentle cross-shore, creating a slight chop. It’s probably the biggest swell of the whole period, but it’s still weak and messy. The afternoon is similar at 4 ft and 161 energy.

Bottom line: There’s nothing here that qualifies as a standout. The water temperature is a wild 70°F, which is a massive 8°F warmer than normal for this time of year—very unusual, and you’ll feel it. Surf camps are going to be a tough sell. The best bet is the Wednesday morning of the 5th for the cleanest 5 ft waves, or the 12th Wednesday morning for the cleanest 3 ft easterly swell. But even then, it’s marginal. The rest of the forecast is a long, flat, and choppy reality. If you’re a kite surfer, some of those afternoons with fresh cross-shore wind and a bit of chop might be more interesting than for a paddle surfer.

Hang in there, folks. Forecasts change. But for now, don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

Read more