Freshwater Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this outlook for the next 16 days is a tough one for Freshwater Bay. We’re looking at a long, dry patch of flat or poor conditions before we finally see a glimmer of something surfable, but even then, it’s not going to set the world on fire.

Right now and for the next week and a half, it’s pretty grim. From Tuesday the 14th right through to Monday the 21st of July, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. The swell is tiny, the wind is messy, and the wave energy is weak – we’re talking values as low as 2. The bay is just not offering anything. It’s a good time to fix your dings or clean the wax off your board.

The first sign of life pops up on Wednesday the 22nd of July. The morning brings a little 4ft swell from the east with a gentle offshore breeze from the north. The energy is still weak (73), but the wind is offshore and clean. It’s not going to be pumping, but you might snag a few knee-high walls. The afternoon gives us a bit less, with 3ft and clean offshore wind from the northwest, but again, the energy is low (46). It’s better than nothing, but don’t expect fireworks.

Thursday the 23rd of July morning is a similar story – 4ft east swell with a light offshore from the northwest. The waves are there, but the conditions are just ordinary. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no need for a thick wetsuit just yet.

Now, Friday the 24th of July morning is probably the best we’re going to see in this whole window. We’ve got 4ft from the west-southwest with the wind glassy – completely flat calm. That’s a major positive. The wave energy is still moderate (97), but glassy conditions on a reef and point break like Freshwater Bay can turn a so-so swell into something fun. The swell is short period though, at 5 seconds, so it’ll be a bit weak and soft. It’s the standout, but it’s a low bar. Crowds are possible here, so if you want a clean wave, get there early.

After that, it’s back downhill. Saturday the 25th is tiny, and by Sunday the 26th, the wind is howling from the west-southwest at 18-25 mph with rain showers, making it messy and lumpy. The swell picks up a bit on Monday the 27th, with 4ft in the morning and 6ft in the afternoon, but the wind is cross-shore and cross-onshore, creating a chop. The energy gets up to 181 in the afternoon, which is moderate, but it’s not clean. This setup with the strong wind and a beach-and-reef setup might actually look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The window closes with Wednesday the 29th of July, where we see a 7ft swell from the southwest with a period of 7 seconds. That’s a lot of water moving around, but the wind is a fresh cross-onshore at 18 mph, making it lumpy and difficult. The energy is strong (391), but you’d have to be an expert to handle that mess. It’s too big for beginners and the conditions are poor.

So, the only real standout is Friday the 24th of July morning. It’s not much, but it’s the cleanest we’ll get. Keep your expectations low, and you might just have a laugh.

Rusty.

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