Freshwater Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here.

Let me tell you, looking at this forecast for Freshwater Bay is like watching paint dry for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a big old stretch of nothing to very little, and you’re gonna need some serious patience if you want a wave.

The first week is almost entirely flat. There’s a bit of an inside pulse on the 16th, but it’s weak, short-period slop. The wind is mostly cross-off or light, which is the only positive, but the swell energy is just not there. We’re talking ankle-biters. On the 17th, there’s a brief bump to around 5-6 feet, but it’s all over the place—jumbled and lumpy. Not worth your time. Then it just dies off again. The next few days bring nothing but tiny leftovers, with occasional long-period pulses that don’t have any push behind them. The water is a toastier-than-normal for this time of year, coming in at about 67°F, which is over 5° warmer than average—that’s a real conversation starter.

Now, heading into the second week, the winds start to turn easterly, and that’s when things get a bit more challenging. We’ve got consistent east winds blowing 20-30 mph, which is creating a messy, cross-onshore chop. There’s still some swell on the 24th and 25th, around 4-5 feet, but it’s all short-period wind swell, bumpy and uninviting. It’s the kind of surf that’s more work than it’s worth, and the crowd would have to be desperate.

Then, just when you’re ready to write the whole period off, we get a glimmer of hope. On the 30th of September, a proper SW groundswell finally shows up, with a period of 10 seconds and a solid 5-6 feet of swell. The combined energy spikes to 551, which is a strong signal. Crucially, the wind is light offshore, out of the NE, which should groom those faces into something clean and fun. This is the standout, and if you can only paddle out once in this whole window, this is the morning to do it. The afternoon gets a bit lumpy, and by the next day it’s back to the same old east-slanted mess.

So, there you have it. A long, flat spell with one decent day hiding at the very end. If that day points, you better be in the water. If not, leave your board at home and maybe take up kite surfing, because for the rest of this period, that’s about all that’s going to have any energy.

Rusty

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