Freshwater Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mates, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty flat and grim for Freshwater Bay (Rusty’s corner). There’s a whole lot of nothing on the horizon for a while, so don’t get your hopes up. We’re looking at a long stretch of tiny, weak surf with poor conditions, so you might be better off fixing your dings or going for a run instead.

First things first, the water’s sitting at a toasty 70°, which is a solid 7° warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s a big deal, but honestly, with no waves, it doesn’t matter much.

The next good-looking surf doesn't show up until Friday, August 28th. That’s a long dry spell from now until then. We're talking over a week and a half of frustrating flatness. There are a few pulses of energy early on, like Tuesday afternoon, August 18th, when a 4ft WSW swell shows up with a weak 5-second period, and the combined energy is only at 99. That’s not surf; that’s a lake with a bit of wind chop. The wind will be howling cross-shore at 19 mph, making a mess of things anyway.

The next blip is Wednesday, August 19th, with a similar 4ft swell, but again, it’s a short-period thing, weak energy at 86, and it won’t offer anything rideable. The rest of that week is just tiny dribbles of 0.3ft to 1ft. There’s a nice glassy moment on Thursday morning, August 20th, but the swell is a pathetic 1ft. Not worth paddling out for.

The wind turns nasty on Sunday, August 24th, with strong easterly cross-onshore winds at 25 mph, and the surf is just messy windslop. That trend continues for a few days with more cross-shore junk.

Now, when we get to Friday, August 28th, things finally start to wake up. The swell builds into the afternoon with a 10ft SW groundswell, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 1321. The wind is cross-off from the NE at 22 mph, which will keep it clean. This is promising, but the 8-second period is still a bit short for a spot like this. It could be a handful and a half. Saturday, August 29th, continues with a solid 8ft WSW swell and a strong 823 energy, but with a strong N cross-off wind at 25 mph. This is definitely the standout period of the entire forecast, but the quality is still questionable, so I wouldn't call it a perfect day.

For most of this window, Freshwater Bay is a reef and point setup, but with these small, weak swells, it just won’t have any shape. There’s also a period when the swell is over 8ft, which, for a point break, might be pushing it for anyone not on their A-game. And with the light winds and clean conditions early on, you’d be surfing nothing but a ripple.

Honestly, if you're a kitesurfer, some of these windy, choppy days might be more up your alley, but for a paddle surfer, you should just wait.

Keep the faith, it tends not to stay this bad for long. Once that bigger swell hits at the end, it could be worth a look, but it might get a bit wild.

Rusty out.

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