Freshwater Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, it's Rusty here. Let's have a look at what the next couple of weeks are serving up for us. I gotta be straight with you – this is a grim run for Freshwater Bay. We're looking at a long, dry spell with nothing really worth paddling out for until well into the second week, and even then, it’s a struggle.

The first week is basically a write-off. From Friday the 10th right through until Tuesday the 22nd, it’s a sea of “poor surf conditions.” The winds are mostly cross, cross-on, or just creating chop, and the swell energy is either tiny or non-existent. For a reef and point setup that likes a good SW swell, we're getting weak, short-period E windswell that just doesn’t have the grunt. The first real pinch of hope shows up on Wednesday morning the 15th, with a 3.9ft ENE swell and clean conditions thanks to a gentle offshore, but the wave energy is weak at only 88 (low moderate) and the rating is just a 1/10 for quality. It’s surfable, but you’ll be working hard for nothing special.

We then go through another long gap of near-flat conditions until Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd finally show a pulse. The standouts in this entire 16-day window are those two days.

Wednesday the 22nd is the best of the bunch. We get a 4.3ft WSW swell with a 6-second period pushing in. The combined energy hits 129, which is moderate, and the morning sees light NNE winds, giving us a clean, cross-offshore texture. It’s not pumping, but it will be rideable and clean for the intermediate surfer. The swell direction is right on the money for Freshwater Bay, as it loves a SW groundswell. Keep in mind that with only 6 seconds of period, it won’t have the punch of a proper groundswell, but the wind will make it look better than it sounds.

Thursday the 23rd is similar in size (4.3ft WSW), but the afternoon turns messy as a moderate cross-onshore kicks up. The morning of the 23rd is flat, so your window is tight.

Now, a quick mention of the water temperature on the first day of surf – Friday the 10th – it’s sitting at 66.6°F, which is a massive 7.0° warmer than average for July. That’s very unusual, so you won't need the thickest rubber, but don’t get used to it being that warm for long.

Forget the rest of the second week; Friday the 24th throws up a big 8.2ft to 9.8ft WSW swell with an energy reading of 833-1005 (strong to very strong). That’s a serious amount of water, but with ESE cross-onshore winds at 12 mph, it’s going to be a chunky, blown-out mess. That’s expert territory and it’s not looking clean at all – more of a kitesurfing spectacle than a paddle-surf session.

So, to wrap it up: wait for the morning of Wednesday the 22nd. That’s the only real window where the stars align for a clean, rideable wave at Freshwater Bay. The rest is either flat or ugly.

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