Freshwater Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, this is Rusty.

Look, I'm gonna be straight with you – the next 16 days at Freshwater Bay (reef and point) are a real mixed bag, and honestly, there's a lot of flat, wind-affected dribble to wade through before we see anything that gets the heart racing. The water temp is sitting at 70° which is a massive 7° warmer than usual for this time of year – that's weirdly warm, like wearing a shorty in what should be a steamer season.

The first real blip of interest doesn't come until Saturday the 29th of August. For the nine days before that, we're looking at tiny waves, mostly under 3 ft, and a lot of that is junked up by moderate to fresh cross-shore or onshore winds. Thursday the 20th has a short-period 4 ft swell from the WSW, but the wind is cross-off at 15 mph and the energy is weak (100). The next day, Friday the 21st, drops to a pathetic 1 ft. Saturday the 22nd is even smaller. Sunday the 23rd is glassy, but it's 0.3 ft – you could paddle a kayak. Monday the 24th blows up with a 22 mph cross-shore easterly and a 5 ft Easterly swell, but the period is a weak 6 seconds and the energy is moderate (171) – it's just lumpy, bumpy, no good. Tuesday the 25th, Wednesday the 26th, Thursday the 27th – all small, all onshore or cross-shore, all poor. Friday the 28th picks up a bit with 6 ft from the SW and energy of 293, but a 15 mph cross-shore wind and a 6-second period means it's a messy, grovelly affair.

Now, here's the standout – and it's a long way off, so keep your fingers crossed. Saturday the 29th of August morning. The swell is pumping in at 10 ft from the SW with a 9-second period, which is a solid groundswell, and the energy is absolutely cooking at 1235. The wind is a cross-offshore from the west at 12 mph, which means the face of the wave should be clean. This is the only real window of quality in the whole forecast. The swell direction is close to the optimum SW direction for the break. It's a big swell, pushing well over 8 ft, so this is strictly for the experienced crew – beginners, stay on the beach. The set waves will have serious power, and on a reef and point set-up, it should produce some well-shaped, dredging barrels. The period is moderate, so the lulls between sets might be a bit longer, making the paddle out easier. This is the one to circle on the calendar, but remember, it's over a week out, so treat it as a promising gamble, not a sure thing.

That afternoon on the 29th, the wind swings to a cross-shore WSW at 19 mph, the energy drops to 993, and it gets lumpy – the morning window is the key.

After the 29th, it's back to the doldrums. Sunday the 30th has a 3 ft onshore slop, Monday the 31st is tiny again, and Tuesday the 1st of September sees a brief 5 ft from the SE with a north-northwest offshore at 6 mph, giving clean conditions, but the energy is only 101 and the period is a short 5 seconds – it's surfable but ordinary. Wednesday the 2nd has a fresh offshore wind from the NW at 22 mph and a 5 ft SW swell, but it's still short-period and the energy is weak (114). The rest of the week into early September is a sad tale of 1 ft to 1 ft dribble.

So, bottom line: endure a long, flat, windy run until the 29th of August. That Saturday morning is your one real shot at something memorable – a solid 10 ft SW groundswell with clean offshore winds. Be ready to jump on it, because after that, it's back to the waiting game.

Rusty.

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