Freshwater Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. I’ve been staring at the charts for Freshwater Bay, and I gotta be straight with you – it’s looking pretty grim for a solid stretch. But let’s walk through it.

The next week and a half is mostly a write-off. For the first few days, from Tuesday the 28th of July right through to the morning of Monday the 10th of August, the surf is tiny and the conditions are just plain messy. We’re talking about a lot of flat, weak energy (with combined energy values often in the single digits and low double digits, like 5, 3, 2 and 30). The water is way warmer than usual for this time of year – a massive 5° warmer – but that’s about the only thing that’s unusual around here. The swell is coming from directions like WSW and W, but it’s mostly under 2 ft and the period is short, under 8 seconds, so it’s not going to do anything for us. Winds are all over the place, mostly cross or cross-on, and even when it’s glassy, there’s just no swell to work with. It’s a real bummer.

Then, on Tuesday the 11th of August, we see a tiny flicker of hope. The morning shows a bit of weak energy (129) and the wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” It’s a 2 ft swell from the WSW, period 8 seconds, with a nice clean cross-off breeze from the north. That’s the best of a bad lot, but it’s not worth getting excited about. The energy is still weak, and the swell is small.

The real kicker comes on Wednesday the 12th of August. The morning sees a 5 ft swell from the SW, but the period is only 6 seconds (short period junk) and the wind is a light cross-shore. The energy is moderate (172), but it’s still messy. The afternoon is the biggest swell of the whole run: a 7 ft swell from the WSW with a 6-second period. That’s got a combined energy of 340 – moderate energy – but the wind is a gentle cross-onshore, making it “fairly choppy”. The file says “poor surf conditions”. For a reef and point break like Freshwater Bay, a 7 ft short-period swell with cross-onshore wind is just going to be a sloppy, blown-out mess. It’s too big for beginners and not clean enough for the experienced crew. Honestly, this setup over 8 ft would be expert-only, but at 7 ft with that wind, it’s just not good.

So, what’s the call? There is no standout. The only remotely surfable moment is the morning of Tuesday the 11th of August, and even that is a “meh” at best. The gap of poor surf is from the start of the forecast right through to the morning of the 11th – that’s about 14 days of nothing good. If you’re desperate, you might paddle out on the 11th for a few small, clean waves, but don’t expect much.

Rusty.

Read more