Ferrugem Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and let me tell you, the next week or so at Ferrugem is a bit of a mixed bag, but there are some absolute gems hiding in the mix if you’re patient.

Right now, the water’s sitting at 61°F, which is a solid 5°F colder than what you’d expect for this time of year. That’s bloody unusual, so factor in a thick steamer.

We kick off Thursday, 3 July, with a bit of a messy scene. There’s a solid 8ft S swell rolling in, but a 16 mph SSW cross-breeze has it all chopped up. The combined energy’s sitting at 1117 (moderate), but honestly, it’s not worth paddling out for. Friday afternoon sees the swell jump to 10ft from the S, period 10 seconds, and even with a touch more size, the 12 mph cross-onshore wind and a combined energy of 2921 (strong) just mean it’s a washing machine. Beginners, stay well clear of anything over 8ft—this is expert-only territory if you’re mad enough.

Saturday morning, 5 July, the wind swings around to a glassy N at 3 mph, with a clean 6ft SSE swell (1111 combined energy, moderate). The cross-shore ripples are tiny, and it’s looking a lot more inviting. But the real standout comes Sunday, 6 July. Glassy conditions are back—N wind, literally 3 mph—and that 6ft SSE swell (886 combined energy, moderate) will be the cleanest, most user-friendly wave of the early run. This is your best bet for the first week, with light crowds possible (it’s ‘often’ busy), but those glassy windows make it worth the gamble.

There’s a lull from Monday through Thursday, as the swell drops to 2-3ft and mostly ordinary conditions. Then come Friday, 11 July, things start to pick back up. By Wednesday, 16 July, we’ve got a beauty on the cards: a 7ft S swell (1329 combined energy, strong), clean cross-off N winds at 9 mph, and the forecast says excellent for experienced surfers. This is a powerful, long-period groundswell (12 seconds), so it’ll have proper energy and shape—but it’s edging into expert-only size.

The real big-picture standout, though, is Saturday, 18 July. Ferrugem is set to fire with a 6ft SSE groundswell, a period of 15 seconds, and clean cross-off NNE winds at 6 mph. Combined energy hits 1398 (strong), and the forecast calls it excellent for experienced surfers. That very long-period swell will peel off the sandbar with real push, but remember, beach breaks can get a bit straight with that kind of period—still, the offshore wind and glassy morning windows will have it looking like a dream. If you’ve got the skills, that’s the session to circle.

Overall, a rocky start, but from Saturday onwards, there’s quality to be had. Stay warm, watch the wind, and pick your moments.

Rusty.

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