Estaleiro Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at what we’ve got coming up over the next couple of weeks for Estaleiro Reef.

Honestly, the start of this outlook is a bit of a tough one. There’s a real dry spell for the first few days. Nothing really worth paddling out for from Monday the 14th through to Friday the 19th. We’re looking at a solid week of poor to marginal conditions, with short-period, weak swell and mostly cross or cross-onshore breezes messing things up. It’s one of those stretches where you’re better off working on your wax collection or just staying home.

The first real glimmer of hope comes at the tail end of the week. Check out Sunday the 20th during the afternoon. The wind drops right off, going glassy, and that’s a major positive. We’ve got a 6 ft swell from the ENE, and the combined wave energy jumps up to a very solid (602) for the morning and (599) in the afternoon. This is the kind of setup that can turn a reef break like this on. It’s still a bit of a long period for a beach setup, but on a reef, those longer gaps between sets will help with the paddle out, and the waves should have some real shape to them. Definitely the standout for the first week.

The good news keeps rolling into Monday the 21st of September. Morning and afternoon both see clean conditions with a light cross-offshore breeze, holding swell around 5 ft to 5 ft from the East. The energy is still cranking (406 and 476). This is proper, rideable surf.

After that, things get a bit mixed up again with onshore winds returning Tuesday and Wednesday the 22nd and 23rd. But hold on, because we’ve got another sweet window. Thursday the 24th of September is looking clean in the morning with a light offshore from the WNW (the optimum direction for this spot) and a 4 ft swell. That’s not huge, but with clean conditions and a solid period, it’ll be fun.

And for the very end of the run, Monday the 28th of September also has a morning window with clean, cross-offshore wind and a 5 ft SE swell, producing moderate energy (207). That’s worth keeping an eye on, but it’s over a week away, so treat it as a promising "maybe".

The water is about 67°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no nasty surprises there. Just keep in mind, this reef is inconsistent, so when it’s on, it’s worth the wait, but don’t expect a carnival every day.

In short: the first week is a write-off. Your real targets are late on the 20th and through the 21st for the best waves, with a couple of potential morning windows later on.

Rusty.

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