Estaleiro Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this isn’t a classic run for Estaleiro Reef. The first half of the outlook is pretty slow, with a few small windows of clean surf, but nothing that’s going to get the heart racing. The real standout is much further out, so you’ll need to be patient.

The first decent morning is Thursday the 16th. Estaleiro Reef is breaking with a small 3ft swell from the ESE, and the wind is light offshore from the WNW, so it’ll be clean. The water is a cool 62°, which is a whopping 4° colder than normal for this time of year – that’s genuinely unusual, so you’ll want a decent wetsuit. The combined energy is weak (196), so it’s more of a grovel session than a proper session. It’s inconsistent, so you’ll be sitting and waiting between sets.

Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th mornings look similar, with a bit more size. On Friday morning we’ve got 4ft from the ENE, light offshore NW wind, and clean conditions. The period is short at 8 seconds, so it’ll be a bit crumbly, but the energy is moderate (230). Saturday morning builds to 5ft from the ENE, again with a light offshore NW wind, and the energy is a bit stronger (307). These are the best of the early days, but it’s still a short-period swell, so don’t expect much push.

Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th mornings are clean again with light offshore winds and 5ft to 4ft ENE swell, but the energy drops back to 244 and 214 respectively. It’s surfable, but ordinary.

Then we hit a real lull. From Tuesday the 22nd through to Thursday the 24th morning, the swell drops to 3ft or less. There’s a glassy morning on the 23rd with 3ft from the ENE, but it’s tiny and weak (139). Not worth paddling out for.

Now, the real standout. Friday the 24th afternoon is where it gets interesting. The swell jumps to 6ft from the SE, with a longer period of 9 seconds. The wind is from the NNW, cross-offshore, and conditions are clean. The energy ramps up to 449 (moderate to strong). This is the best swell of the whole run.

Saturday the 25th morning pushes even bigger: 6ft from the SSE, with a 15 km/h cross-offshore wind from the W. The energy is a solid 723 (strong). The period is 9 seconds, so it’s got some grunt. However, this is getting into the size where it’s really only for competent surfers. The tide or bank might be a bit tricky, but on its day, this could be the best session of the outlook. The crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so it could get busy if word gets out.

The rest of the second week drops off quickly. The afternoons get chopped out, and the mornings are small and weak. A few mornings around the 28th and 29th have clean 4ft to 4ft E swell with light offshore winds, but the energy is only moderate (230–249). It’s a distant follow-up to the big Friday.

So, to sum it up: the best on offer is Friday the 24th afternoon and Saturday the 25th morning at Estaleiro Reef. The Friday has a great 6ft SE swell with clean cross-offshore wind, and the Saturday has a bigger 6ft SSE swell but with a cross-offshore wind that’s a little stronger. Those are the two you want to circle. Everything else is small, weak, or just ordinary.

Rusty.

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