Estaleiro Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks.

Overall, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The first week has some promising windows if you're willing to pick your moments, but the second week looks like it’s going to be a long, slow grind. There’s a real noticeable gap in quality from about the 17th of July onwards, where the surf gets smaller and the conditions get trickier. The standout session is definitely the first one on the list.

We start off on Wednesday morning, 15th July, at Estaleiro Reef. This is the pick of the bunch. The swell is coming in at 4ft from the ESE with a period of 10 seconds, and the combined energy is a solid 265 (moderate wave energy). The wind is glassy offshore from the WNW at just 3 mph, so it’s going to be clean. The water is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, sitting at 62°, with a notable anomaly of 4° colder. This is a reef setup, so it handles that longer period well, and with the wind being pure offshore, you’re looking at some nice, peeling waves. The crowd factor is “sometimes”, so you might have a few out, but it won’t be a zoo. If you can get out there Wednesday morning, that’s your best bet.

The afternoon on the 15th stays clean as well, with a 4ft ESE swell at 10 seconds and 289 combined energy, with a cross-offshore breeze from the north. It’s still very good, just not quite as pristine as the morning glass-off.

Thursday morning, 16th July, sees the swell back off a little to 3ft, and the energy drops to 199. Winds are still offshore from the NW, but the waves are more ordinary. The quality drops off noticeably after this.

From Friday 17th July onwards, the swell direction shifts to the ENE and the period drops to 8 seconds. That’s a weaker, shorter-period swell, and the energy levels are moderate at best. The morning sessions on Friday 17th, Saturday 18th, and Sunday 19th all have offshore or cross-offshore winds, and the swell holds around 4ft to 5ft, which keeps them clean enough. Saturday morning, 18th July, has a 5ft ENE swell at 8 seconds with 307 combined energy and a cross-offshore breeze, making it a solid option for intermediate surfers. It’s worth noting that 5ft is getting towards the upper end for beginners.

From Monday 20th July onwards, the swell drops and the afternoons get messy with cross-shore winds. The morning sessions are still clean, but the waves are smaller and weaker. The 21st and 22nd see the energy dip into the 100s, and conditions become poor.

The second week, from 24th July onwards, looks pretty grim. We get a pulse of 5ft SE swell on Saturday 25th, but it’s accompanied by 12 mph cross-onshore winds and rain, so it’s a choppy mess. The combined energy jumps to 367 (moderate), but the wind is all wrong. This setup is looking more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, honestly. The morning of 26th July has a 5ft SSE swell with a very long period of 12 seconds and strong energy at 704, but it’s cross-onshore again, so the quality is marginal.

The tail end of the forecast, the 28th and 29th, sees a tiny 2ft to 3ft swell with a very long period from the SE (14 seconds on the 28th). The energy is back up to 232, and the wind is offshore or glassy, so it’ll be clean, but the waves are just too small to get excited about.

Overall, if you’re after a surf, get out on Wednesday morning, 15th July. That’s the standout. The rest of the run is a pick-and-choose game of clean mornings with small, short-period waves, followed by a week of messy, windy conditions. Don’t hold your breath for the second week.

- Rusty

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