Estaleiro Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a mixed bag coming up for Estaleiro Reef, with a slow start but some promising windows later on. Let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, Friday the 3rd is a write-off. We’ve got a cross-on wind and choppy conditions on a 5ft swell from the SE – just ugly. The water’s sitting at 64°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want the thick rubber. Nothing to get excited about.

Saturday the 4th is where it starts to turn. Morning is the pick early on: clean surf with a light offshore breeze, 3ft of SE swell, period around 12 seconds. That long period is proper groundswell, and on a reef setup like this, it should wrap in nicely. The combined energy is moderate (275). It’s not big, but it’s fun. A light cross-off wind in the arvo keeps it clean for the most part.

Sunday the 5th morning is deadset glassy – clean, offshore flow from the NW, 3ft SE swell at 12 seconds (255 energy). That’s your first standout: small but really clean, and on a reef with that long period, the shape will be there. Expect it to be inconsistent though – this break doesn’t fire often, so when it cleans up like this, it’s worth jumping on.

Monday the 6th drops off a notch. Clean enough in the morning but the swell’s only 2ft with 10-second period (176 energy). Ordinary. Tuesday the 7th gets ugly again with a cross-on, choppy mess. Skip it.

Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th are small and clean but barely waist high. Not worth paddling out unless you’re desperate. Friday the 10th is messy.

Now, Saturday the 11th – both sessions are looking clean and fun. The swell bumps up to 3-4ft from the ESE, period 11 seconds (249-306 energy), and a cross-off wind. That’s a decent little block of surf.

Sunday the 12th morning is another standout: clear skies, offshore wind from the WNW, 3ft ESE swell with a 13-second period (354 energy). That’s a gem. Long period, clean, solid little waves for the intermediate crew. The reef will handle that length of swell nicely.

Monday the 13th morning is also clean with offshore wind and 3ft SE swell (12 seconds). A follow-up session with similar vibes.

We then hit a lull again Tuesday the 14th through the rest of that week – small, messy, not much to talk about. Wednesday the 15th has a weird 3ft SSE swell with a 6-second period – that’s windswell, short and crap. Best left alone.

Thursday the 16th afternoon is a treat: glassy conditions, 3ft SE swell at 12 seconds (253 energy). That’s a sleeper session – dead calm, clean lines. Worth a look.

Now, for the bold call: Friday the 17th morning and afternoon bring a jump in size – 7ft swell from the S/SSE, with period around 9-10 seconds. That combined energy is strong to very strong (880 to 1031). That’s proper grunt. But the period is short, and with a cross-shore wind, it’ll be a bit lumpy. For a reef break, 7ft with that short period can be a handful – more of an expert wave. The plus side is that the wind is light, so it won’t be a complete washout. If you’ve got the skill, that Friday arvo session could be the biggest wave day of the outlook, but it’s not for the faint-hearted.

Saturday the 18th morning cleans back up with offshore wind and 3ft SE swell (239 energy). A nice way to close out the run.

Overall, the best on offer is Sunday the 5th morning for glassy, long-period fun, and Sunday the 12th morning for the best combo of size, period, and clean offshore wind. Friday the 17th is the big-wave wildcard – promising but less certain. Don’t expect much in between the standouts; this break lives up to its “inconsistent” name.

Rusty.

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