Estaleiro Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright surfers, Rusty here with the outlook for Estaleiro Reef. We’ve got a mixed bag of a 16-day window. The first few days are pretty average, but there’s a couple of windows that could be worth a look if you’re patient.

The first decent call is Friday morning, August 28th. We see some chest-high swell around 5 ft rolling in from the ENE with a short-period, 8-second pulse. The combined energy is moderate at 270, which isn’t massive but there’s something to work with. The real key here is the wind: a light cross-offshore breeze from the NNW at 6 mph will be keeping the surface clean. The water temp is sitting at 19°C, which is about average for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.

We then hit a rough patch. From Saturday the 29th right through to the middle of the next week, the quality drops right off. Expect a few days of choppy, onshore conditions. It’s a few days of nothing to get excited about.

Now, Wednesday morning, September 2nd looks like a big moment, but it’s a tricky one. We see a serious jump in swell with 8 ft coming from the SSE, carrying a nice, long-period energy of 11 seconds. The combined energy is a huge 2231 – that’s very strong wave power. The winds are forecast to be glassy and the tide is favorable, but this spot is on the exposed side and that size is pushing it. This is expert territory only; it’ll be too big for most. Not a day for the beginner crew.

After that, it fades into weak, small dribblers for the next week. The energy drops right off, and winds are mostly on the nose or cross-shore.

Monday morning, September 7th is the standout to circle on the calendar. We get a rejuvenated 4 ft swell from the SE, but this time the period jumps to a very long 14 seconds. That’s real groundswell, and the combined energy hits 510 – a solid moderate push. The direction from the SE is pretty much spot on for what this reef wants. The wind will be light and offshore from the WNW at 6 mph, keeping the surface glassy. This is the cleanest, most promising window of the entire forecast. For a reef like this, a long-period swell can really line up.

Later in the window, Saturday morning, September 12th brings another spike of 8 ft from the SE with strong energy at 1882, but the accompanying wind is moderate and cross-shore. Again, that size is too much for this break for most folks.

Overall, for the next two weeks, it’s a case of pick your moment. The best quality will be that Monday morning, September 7th, where the conditions finally come together for a clean, lined-up session. The first few days are average, the big mid-week swells are for experts only, and the final stretch looks small and messy.

Stay patient, keep your eyes on that week-two window.

Rusty.

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