Estaleiro Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a 16-day window on the radar for Estaleiro Reef, and I’ll be straight with you – it’s a quiet run. This reef setup is a bit of a moody one, and it rarely fires consistently. We’re looking at a long stretch of small, ordinary surf, so don’t get your hopes up for any epic sessions.

The forecast opens on Tuesday, July 28th, with a small, weak swell from the ENE at 2 ft, and a short period of just 6 seconds. The combined energy is weak (60). The morning looks clean enough with a light cross-offshore breeze from the NW, but it’s tiny. The afternoon turns a bit messier as the wind swings NNE and goes cross-shore, making it a write-off. Wednesday, July 29th, is a washout – the morning is clean but tiny (2 ft), and the afternoon gets hammered by a 12 mph onshore wind from the SE, making it a complete no-go. Thursday, July 30th, offers a glimmer with a glassy morning, but the swell drops to 2 ft from the east with only 7 seconds of period. It’s clean but barely surfable.

Friday, July 31st, is the first real potential standout of the period. The morning brings glassy conditions with a tiny 1.0 ft swell, but the kicker is the period jumping to 13 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, and at a reef, that can mean a clean, walling wave, even if it’s small. The combined energy is still weak (58), but with glassy conditions, it’s your best bet for a few fun, clean lines. The afternoon stays clean with a cross-off breeze, but the swell drops back to a short period.

Saturday, August 1st, sees a bump in size to 3 ft from the east, but the period is short again at 6 seconds. The morning is clean with a cross-off breeze, but the energy is still weak (91). The afternoon gets a bit messy with cross-shore wind. The rest of the first week and into the second is a desert of small, onshore, or wind-affected surf. Sunday, August 2nd, through Monday, August 3rd, is all poor conditions with cross-onshore winds and weak, short-period energy.

Now, let’s talk about the second week. We see a pattern shift around Tuesday, August 4th. The swell direction swings to the SE, and the period kicks back up to 12 seconds. The morning has a clean offshore wind from the NW, and the energy climbs to moderate (161). The afternoon goes glassy. This is a decent setup for the reef. The swell is small at 2 ft, but the long period and clean conditions mean it could be a sneaky good session. Wednesday, August 5th, stays glassy in the morning with a 10-second period, but the afternoon brings onshore winds. Thursday, August 6th, has a morning cross-off breeze and a 9-second SE swell, with moderate energy (132). It’s another clean, small option.

The real standout of the second week, and perhaps the whole outlook, looks like Tuesday, August 11th. The morning is glassy, with a 2 ft swell from the SE at a very long 12 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (176). This is the kind of day where the reef can smooth out that long-period energy and give you a proper, clean wave. It’s small, but it’s the best quality window we’ve got. The afternoon goes onshore, so hit the early session.

After that, the forecast gets ugly again with strong onshore winds and heavy rain on Sunday, August 9th, and into Monday, August 10th. The final days on offer, August 12th, are a write-off with moderate rain and strong cross-onshore winds.

So, bottom line: don’t expect much. The pick of the week is the glassy morning of Friday, July 31st, for a clean, long-period treat. The other one to circle is Tuesday, August 11th, for another glassy, long-period session. Everything else is a paddling exercise. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no nasty surprises there.

Stay patient, and don’t be afraid to sit it out. The forecasts can change, but for now, it’s a slow burn.

Rusty.

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