Estaleiro Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a bit of a slow burner for the next couple of weeks at Estaleiro Reef. The pattern is pretty quiet to start, with a mix of onshore winds and small, weak swell keeping things mostly flat and messy. We’re looking at a period of small, short-period waves here, mostly in the 1 ft to 4 ft range, and the wind isn’t doing us many favours. The energy is low, with combined swell energy readings mostly in the low hundreds, peaking in the low two hundreds, so it’s weak. There’s a gap of a few days of pretty poor conditions before we see a real window of opportunity, and then a couple of standout sessions later on.

The water temperature is sitting at 67°, which is just about normal for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick suit.

Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th are a write-off. The swell is small and weak, and the wind is cross-on, making for choppy, poor surf. The energy is barely registering (234 on Saturday morning). You’re better off checking the forecast again later.

Monday the 31st shows a glimmer of hope. The morning brings a light cross-offshore breeze from the SW, and the swell is a clean 4 ft from the E, with a period of 8 seconds. The energy jumps to 220. It’s small, but clean. The “expect good surf conditions” note is the first positive sign.

Tuesday the 1st of September morning is where it gets interesting. We’ve got offshore wind from the WNW, light at 10 mph, and a 3 ft swell from the ESE. The water is clean. The combined energy is 158. It’s nothing massive, but the conditions are making the most of it. A good little session for a log or a fish.

Now, hold onto your board. Wednesday the 2nd of September morning is a beast. The forecast shows a 8 ft swell from the S, with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy is a massive 1105, which is strong. But here’s the catch: the data says it’s too big for this break. This is a reef set-up, and with that much water moving, it’s likely going to be a washing machine, unsurfable for most. This is an expert-only situation if anyone dares, but I’d be giving it a wide berth. The wind is light and cross-off, so the texture will be clean, but the size is the factor.

The next real standout is Monday the 7th of September. The morning looks excellent for experienced surfers. A 7 ft swell from the S, with a 10-second period, is solid. The combined energy is 1044, again very strong. The wind is light and cross-off from the W, promising clean, lined-up waves. This is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s big, so not for beginners, but for those with the skills, it’s the best on offer in the whole window.

The following week has a few more notes. Wednesday the 9th of September brings another big one, a 8 ft swell from the ENE, but it’s the same story: too big for this reef, with a cross-shore wind making it ugly. Thursday the 10th of September afternoon has some promise with a 5 ft swell from the E and glassy conditions, good for a score.

The final standout is Saturday the 12th of September. Saturday morning is looking very good. A 5 ft swell from the E, with a 10-second period, and light cross-offshore wind from the NW. The combined energy is 776, which is moderate to strong. The conditions are clean. This is a solid, fun-sized swell with good shape potential. The afternoon holds up, too, with clean conditions.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is mostly a dud, with a few small clean windows. The real highlights are the two big, clean swells on the 2nd and the 7th of September, but the 2nd is too big for the spot. The 7th is the best bet for experienced surfers. For the rest of us, the 10th afternoon and the 12th morning are the ones to aim for.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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