Estaleiro Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

First off, I gotta be straight with you – this 16-day run for Estaleiro Reef is a tough watch. We’re looking at a real dry spell with only a few very brief windows where it might be worth paddling out. The water’s sitting at 66°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing.

The overall pattern is a long stretch of cross-onshore winds and choppy, messy conditions. Most days are a write-off, with poor surf and weak energy. There’s a big gap of poor conditions from the start, through the first week and into the next.

Let’s break it down. The first real glimmer of hope comes on Monday, 17 August. The morning has a 5 ft swell from the east with a period of 8 seconds, and a light cross-offshore NNW breeze at 6 mph. The combined energy is moderate at 372. It’s clean, and the wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s your best bet for the whole outlook. The swell is pushing 5 ft, which is getting a bit punchy for beginners, but it’s a reef, so it could be fun for the intermediates. The period is short, so it’ll be a bit crumbly, but the clean surface will make it rideable.

Tuesday, 18 August morning offers a similar story – 4 ft from the east-northeast, 8-second period, with a light cross-offshore NNW wind at 6 mph. Energy is moderate (254). Clean again, but the swell is a touch smaller.

Wednesday, 19 August morning is the next standout. We get a 3 ft swell from the east-northeast, but the wind goes pure offshore out of the northwest at just 3 mph. The energy is still weak (146), but the glassy, clean conditions will make the most of it. The waves will be small, but if you’re after a silky session, this is the one.

After that, it’s back to poor conditions. There’s a tiny blip on Saturday, 22 August morning with glassy conditions and a 3 ft swell, but the energy is weak (123) and the wave comment says “surfable but very ordinary.” Not worth getting excited about.

The rest of the run into the second week is a desert of cross-onshore winds and choppy, poor surf. The combined energy drops into the double digits on the 23rd (68), which is basically flat. We see some cleaner conditions on the 25th and the 27th, but the swell is tiny and the energy is weak.

So, to wrap it up: the only real standouts are the Monday 17 August morning and the Wednesday 19 August morning. The Monday has the most size, but the Wednesday has the purest offshore wind. Everything else is a pass. This is a tough stretch for the reef – it’s mostly a blank run, so don’t expect much.

Rusty.

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