El Burro Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a honest look at what’s on the table for El Burro over the next couple of weeks. I’ll level with you straight up: this stretch is going to be a tough one.

Straight off the bat, the outlook is a flat spell. There’s no surf worth a paddle for the first several days. The wave energy is weak, somewhere between 1 and 18 (units), and the swell is tiny – mostly around 0.3ft to 2ft. The wind is cross or sometimes cross-off, but there’s just nothing to push into it. Wednesday the 8th through to Wednesday the 15th of July is basically a write-off. You’ll be sitting on your board staring at a lake. Not a single day in that stretch gets a recommendation from me.

The water temperature is sitting at 72°, which is about a touch warmer than what’s normal for this time of year – that is a little unusual, but it won’t help the surf.

Now, as we push into the second week, things do finally start to show some pulse. On Thursday the 16th of July, the swell bumps up to 3ft from the NE with a period of 7 to 8 seconds. The combined energy climbs to 88 and then 93 (units). That’s moderate energy, but the wind remains cross and bumpy. Friday the 17th sees the energy hit 117 (units) with 3ft from the NNE, but again, the wind is a fresh cross breeze creating lumpy conditions. This is not clean, user-friendly surf – it’s for the experienced lads who don’t mind a wrestle.

There is a couple of standout moments in the long-range. Let’s talk about Wednesday the 22nd of July. The swell jumps to 7ft and 8ft from the NE at 9 seconds, and the combined energy roars to a massive 1,159 and 1,044 (units). That is strong to very strong energy. But listen – at that size, and with cross winds, it’s strictly for experts. Beginners, stay well clear. Also, the direction from the NE is not matching El Burro’s optimum swell direction from the ENE, so it won’t be breaking at its best. And this is a sheltered reef break that’s already inconsistent, so to see that kind of size is notable but tricky. Thursday the 23rd of July still carries solid 4ft to 5ft swell from the NE with 10 second period, and on the afternoon the wind turns cross-off, giving cleaner faces. Energy is moderate to strong at 376 and 257 (units). That Thursday afternoon is probably your best shot in the whole forecast – a little more shape, cleaner wind, and still punchy.

But overall, the pattern here is a long flat gap, a bumpy build, and then a short window of burly, messy swell for experts only. Don’t get your hopes up for clean, rippable waves. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing during the windier days with bigger swell and choppy conditions. The only real standout is Thursday afternoon the 23rd of July.

Keep an eye on it, the forecasts can shift, but right now it’s a waiting game.

Rusty

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