El Arenal Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at El Arenal are looking like a tough stretch for surfers. We've got a bit of a rough patch coming.

Looking at the whole picture, there are no standout days where everything lines up. The swell sticks around, but the wind is going to be a real problem for most of the period. We're seeing a persistent cross-shore or cross-onshore breeze that's going to turn things into a choppy mess. That means clean waves are going to be hard to come by.

For Thursday the 16th, it’s a non-starter. We’re looking at a tiny 2ft swell from the WNW with a 9-second period, but a moderate cross-shore wind is already messing it up. The combined wave energy is weak (76). It’s a poor day.

Rolling into Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th, the swell bumps up to 4ft on Friday and 5ft on Saturday, both from the NE. The period is short at 6 to 7 seconds, so it’s weak, wind-swell. The wind stays as a moderate cross-shore, creating a nasty cross-chop. The energy climbs into the moderate range (171 to 263), but the quality is just not there.

The second week is more of the same story. From Sunday the 21st through to the end of the month, we've got a consistent 5ft to 8ft NE swell. The combined energy gets into the strong category by the 24th (914) and even very strong on the 25th (1076). But here's the killer: that wind remains stubbornly cross-onshore or choppy. On Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th, we see a peak in size around 8ft, but with short 8-9 second periods, it's going to be a bumpy, blown-out mess. The setup with that persistent cross-onshore wind and solid, short-period swell makes this look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, honestly.

For beginners, anything over 5ft is getting too big. By the 25th, we're seeing 8ft swell, which is expert territory, but with the wind howling, even they won’t be having a good time. The only bit of light is on the morning of the 30th, when we get a clean offshore wind from the NW. But the swell is dropping, and it’s still just a “poor surf” call.

So, the honest truth: there’s no real standout session in this forecast. It’s a long run of poor to marginal conditions. Forecasts can change, but right now, you might want to save your energy.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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