El Arenal Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up for El Arenal.

First thing you need to know: the water is sitting at 75°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. Feels nice.

Honestly, the outlook is a tough one. We’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions ahead. The first few days don’t have any real surf on offer. Tuesday the 28th through Thursday the 31st of July are all showing poor surf conditions with moderate cross-onshore or cross-shore breezes in the 12 to 16 mph range, making it choppy and messy. The swell is there, but it’s short-period windswell, mostly 3 ft to 5 ft from the NNE or NE, with combined energy reading between 135 and 298 (weak to moderate), but the wind just ruins it.

We finally get a slight glimmer on Friday afternoon, the 31st of July. The swell bumps up to 5 ft from the NE, period still short at 7 seconds, but the combined energy jumps to 548 (moderate wave energy). It’s still only marginal, with a moderate cross-shore breeze, but it’s the first hint of something that might be rideable. Saturday the 1st of August morning sees a light wind shift: a slight air from the N at 3 mph, cross-on, with 5 ft NE swell. That’s about as clean as it gets in this entire run, but it’s still only marginal. The best of a bad bunch.

From the 2nd of August onwards, we slide back into a pattern of poor surf and cross-on winds. The swell does build in size: by the 4th of August Tuesday morning we’ve got 6 ft from the NE, and by the 5th of August Wednesday morning we’re looking at 7 ft from the NE, with combined energy hitting 602 (strong wave energy). The wind is light and cross-shore those mornings, so it’s borderline. But don’t get too excited – the period is still short at 7-8 seconds, and the swell direction is not ideal for the optimum N direction this spot likes. For a beginner, 6 ft to 7 ft might be pushing it.

The rest of the run into the second week just keeps a similar story: swell height stays between 4 ft and 8 ft, mostly from the NE or NNE, with persistent cross-on or cross-shore winds. The combined energy occasionally hits 760 or 812 (strong to very strong wave energy), but the wind is always on it, making it choppy. There’s no standout day that’s a clean winner.

If you’re a beginner, this stretch is mostly a write-off. The onshore wind and chop will make it frustrating. For more experienced surfers, the mornings with lighter winds – like the 4th, 5th, and 6th of August – might offer a few semi-clean waves if you’re desperate, but it’s not going to be pretty. This setup, with the wind and beach-break nature, would actually be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on most days.

Bottom line: the best on offer is probably the morning of Saturday the 1st of August with the lightest winds, but even then it’s a marginal call. Don’t hold your breath; things can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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