El Arenal Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the menu at El Arenal over the next couple of weeks.

First up, the water is sitting at 77°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – a nice little bonus if you’re paddling out.

Honestly, for the first week, it’s a bit of a rough go. We’ve got a whole lot of nothing good from Friday the 21st right through to Tuesday the 26th. The wind is mostly cross-on or cross, and the swell is short-period and choppy. You’d be fighting a losing battle out there. It’s a long stretch of poor conditions with no real standouts.

Things start to look a little more interesting on the morning of Sunday the 23rd. We see a jump in the combined swell energy to 302 (moderate) as a new, longer-period groundswell from the NNW starts to show at 3ft. But the real shift comes that afternoon. The groundswell bumps up to 5ft from the NNW with a very long period of 14 seconds, and the combined energy climbs to 906 (strong). The wind turns onshore at 12 mph, but that long period means real shape. The catch is that the surf quality is still flagged as marginal due to tide, so it won't be perfect.

Monday morning the 24th is the closest thing we have to a highlight. The swell holds from the NNW at 6ft with a 12-second period, and the combined energy is ripping at 1012 (very strong). The wind is a light breeze, though cross-on. With that size, this is getting into the territory where beginners might want to sit it out, but for anyone with experience, it has potential. The long-period groundswell will work better on a point or reef, but here at El Arenal (a sandbar), those longer gaps between sets might make the paddle out a bit easier.

After that, it gets messy again. From Monday afternoon through the end of the month, we’re back to poor conditions with moderate to fresh cross and cross-on winds chopping things up. The swell hangs around but it’s just ugly.

Looking into the first week of September, there is a second pulse of swell around Thursday the 5th. On Saturday the 5th, we see some NNW swell at 4ft with an 8-second period and combined energy of 306 (moderate). The wind is cross, but the surf quality is still ‘poor’. It’s not worth getting excited about this far out.

So, if you’re picking your moment, the standout is Sunday morning the 24th of August. That 6ft NNW groundswell with the long period and light wind is your best shot at something decent, even if it’s not glassy. A second, less certain shout is Sunday afternoon the 23rd for the arrival of that long-period groundswell, but the tide and onshore wind will be factors.

Otherwise, it’s a waiting game.

- Rusty

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