El Arenal Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – looking at this forecast for El Arenal, it’s a pretty bleak run. We’ve got a solid 16 days of surf on the cards, but don’t get your hopes up. The wind is just a nightmare for most of it, and the surf quality is getting marked as poor all the way through. There’s a bit of a gap at the start with zero recommendations, and honestly, the entire period is a write-off for decent waves.

It kicks off Wednesday the 12th with some swell showing up, about 2ft from the NW, but that 16 mph NNE cross-wind just chops it all to pieces. The combined energy is weak at 206, so it’s not even got any push behind it. The water temp is 76°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, but you won't be feeling it with that wind in your face.

Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th see the swell build a bit, hitting 5ft to 6ft from the NE and NNE. But the period is a short 6-7 seconds, meaning weak, crumbly waves. And that wind stays a nasty 12-16 mph cross-shore or cross-onshore. The energy picks up to moderate levels (361-406), but it’s all messy. For beginners, the 5ft-6ft is pushing the limit, especially with these conditions.

The whole first week, right through to the 19th, is the same story. Swell between 3ft and 5ft, periods mostly 7-9 seconds, but the wind never lets up. We get a brief moment on Tuesday the 18th morning with a light 3 mph cross-onshore wind, and the swell holds at 4ft with a period of 9 seconds (combined energy 303). That’s the only “marginal” call in the whole forecast. If you’re desperate, that might be your window, but it’s still cross-onshore and bumpy.

After that, it’s a slow fade. From the 20th through the 27th, the swell drops back under 3ft for a bit, then tries to build again on the 22nd with 5ft from the NNE, but the wind is back up to 12 mph cross-onshore. The last few days of the month see the swell drop right off, with combined energy falling below 100, so basically flat and weak. The wind finally goes cross-shore again, but there’s just no power in the water.

Honestly, for this whole 16-day stretch, there isn’t a single standout. It’s not even worth picking a best day. The wind is just relentless from the north-northeast, and the swell direction is never lining up with the optimum from the north. For a sandbar like El Arenal, this is a total bust. If you’re a kite surfer, those 12-16 mph cross-shore days might be fun, but for a paddle surfer, it’s a hard pass. Forecasts can change, but right now, this is as blank as it gets.

Rusty.

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