El Arenal Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: the next 16 days are a write-off for any decent paddle surfing at El Arenal. There’s swell on the way, sure, but the winds are going to mess it up the whole run. It’s a sandbar set-up, exposed to the north, and the cross-shore and cross-onshore winds will keep it lumpy and chopped out. Not the kind of conditions you want to get excited about.

The water’s running about 76°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s the only silver lining right off the bat. You’ll be warm, but you’ll be bobbing around in messy lines.

From Tuesday the 18th through Saturday the 22nd of August, it’s all poor. Swell is small, around 3ft to 5ft, with short-period windswell (7-8 seconds). The wind is cross-on from the north, blowing 9-12 mph, keeping things choppy. Combined energy is weak to moderate (132 to 254), and honestly, it’s just not worth the effort.

Sunday the 23rd has a bump in period to 10 seconds and swell around 3ft, but it’s flagged as marginal, with the wind still crossing it up. Not a goer.

Monday the 24th teases a bit with a cross-off wind in the morning and clean conditions (energy 191), but the swell is only 2ft with a 10-second period. That’s the one moment that looks half-decent, but it’s tiny.

Then the winds get worse. From Tuesday the 25th through Thursday the 27th, the swell builds to 5ft, then 6ft, with periods dropping back to 8 seconds. The wind picks up to 19 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy and messy. Combined energy jumps from 268 to 471 – moderate to strong – but it’s all wasted on the chop.

The real kicker comes on Friday the 28th of August. Swell jumps to 7ft from the NE with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is strong at 710-721. But that’s over 6ft, so it’s expert territory, and with the cross-shore winds at 16 mph, it’s going to be a washing machine. At El Arenal, a beach and sandbar break, this setup looks more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle surfers. It’s going to be messy, powerful, and hard to get a clean one.

The last few days, from Saturday the 29th to Monday the 31st, stay in the 5ft to 6ft range with NE cross-onshore winds and periods around 8 seconds. Still poor quality, energy stays strong (456 to 646). Then it fades into September with smaller 3ft to 4ft waves and those winds never letting up.

Bottom line: there are no good surf options in this whole window. It’s a flat, messy stretch for the area. Forecasts can change, but as it sits, you’re better off finding another hobby for a couple of weeks.

Rusty.

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