El Arenal Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a seat. Rusty here, gonna talk you through the sixteen-day outlook for El Arenal. Straight up, it’s been a rough stretch. The forecast starts with nothing but “poor surf conditions” for the first eight days, so if you’re looking to paddle out, don’t bother before the 13th. That’s over a week of waiting.

The first faint glimmer comes on the 13th of September. The reports shift from “poor” to “marginal.” Swell is a weak 5 ft from the NNE with a short period, so it’s not going to be powerful. The wind is a gentle cross-shore, which is about the best you’ll get for a while. The water temp is sitting at 77°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so the water feels comfortable. The combined energy is moderate at 306, so there’s something there but it’s not a standout.

The 14th is more of the same – marginal surf, small 4 ft to 3 ft swell, and weak energy. Not worth getting excited about.

Then, on the morning of the 15th, we get a clean window. The wind turns cross-offshore from the ENE, which is a big positive. The swell is 5 ft from the NNE, period is still short at 8 seconds, but the clean conditions mean the waves will be less choppy. The combined energy is 303, so it’s still moderate. This is the best on offer in the whole run, but it’s only a morning session. The afternoon goes back to poor.

The 17th sees a bigger pulse of swell, hitting 6 ft, and the combined energy jumps to 639 – that’s strong. But the wind is cross-on and choppy, and the period is still short. That’s too much for beginners and just messy for everyone else. It’s the biggest swell of the whole stretch, but the quality is poor.

The 18th is marginal again, with the energy dropping back. The 19th and 20th see the swell fade to nothing.

Overall, the only true standout is the morning of the 15th. It’s the closest you’ll get to decent, clean surf. The rest of the run is a write-off for paddle surfing. The setup looks more like a kite surfer’s playground with the strong cross-onshore winds on the bigger days.

Rusty.

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