Dunes Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for our stretch of coast. The surf window runs for a fortnight, but I’ll be straight with you—there’s a bit of a lull to start, then a few windows of proper fun, and one big standout at the end that’s got my attention.

The early part of the forecast is a mixed bag. We’ve got some clean mornings but the afternoons get chopped up by the wind. The energy in the water to begin with is moderate (771), with a solid 4ft WSW swell pushing through on Thursday the 10th. The morning is glassy with a light ESE breeze, so it’s looking tidy, but the afternoon shifts onshore and turns messy—you’ll want to be out early.

Friday the 11th drops a touch in size to 3ft, but it’s glassy calm in the morning with the swell coming from the WSW at 14 knots. It’s clean, knee-to-waist high stuff, so not a monster, but fun on the right board. The afternoon blows out again, so make the most of the dawn patrol.

Now, Saturday the 12th is where things start to get interesting. The swell jumps back up to 4ft and the period stretches out to 18 seconds—that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is strong (1383) and with a light cross-offshore breeze, conditions are going to be excellent for experienced surfers. The wave direction is coming from the WSW, which lines up perfectly with the optimum direction for this spot. This is a standout morning, no doubt about it. The afternoon gets cross-shore and lumpy, so again, the morning is your window.

Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th keep the size around 4ft to 5ft, with the SSW cross-offshore winds keeping things clean in the mornings. The energy stays moderate (886 and 934), and the waves have good shape. It’s consistent, a little stronger than the start of the week, but not quite as clean as Saturday. These are solid mornings, good for a paddle and a few decent rides.

After that, we hit a bit of a patchy run. Tuesday the 15th through Thursday the 17th see the swell ease back to the 4ft range, with the wind staying cross-offshore and the mornings looking clean. But the energy drops off (590 to 693), and the period shortens a touch which makes the waves a little less lined up. It’s still surfable, but you might be scratching for the better sets. The afternoons continue to get chopped, so stick to the early sessions.

Now, for the ones who can wait—mark the 20th of September on your calendar, that’s Sunday, 9 days from now. The swell model is showing a proper pulse, pushing 7ft from the WSW with a 14 second period. The combined energy is cranking (1650), and the wind is favorable with a light southerly breeze. This is the biggest, most powerful swell of the window. I’ve got to be honest, for this particular break, that size is pushing into the top end—it’s going to be a heavy, expert-only wave. Beginners should sit this one out. But for the crew who can handle it, this is the standout session.

The week after that settles back down to the 4ft to 4ft range with the usual afternoon wind issues. The quality is there in the mornings but it’s not the same energy. There’s a brief dip in swell around the 23rd and 24th where the energy really drops off (466 to 263). The wind turns offshore but the swell is small and weak—this is a good time to fix your dings.

One thing to remember; this spot at Dunes is a reef break that’s consistent, and the water temperature is running about average for this time of year. It might be a touch cooler than a typical autumn day, but nothing to worry about.

So, to wrap it up: the best bet is the Saturday the 12th morning for clean, long-period groundswell, and then the 20th for size and power if you’ve got the skills to handle it. The gap in between is a bit of a waiting game, but the waves will come.

That’s the picture from here.

Rusty.

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