Cozies and Geeries Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right off the bat, the good news is we’ve got surf on the way, but it’s not going to be a straight shot. We’re looking at a solid run of WSW swell pushing into Cozies and Geeries (Mt Maunganui) over the next couple of weeks, but there are some real rough patches in there where you’ll want to stay on the beach. The water temp is sitting right around 65.5°F, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year – nothing weird going on there.

The first real window opens up on Sunday morning, August 2nd. We’ve got a clean 6.6ft WSW swell rolling in, and with a light ENE cross-off breeze, it’s going to be glassy. The energy is strong, with a combined reading of 1487, so there’s some push behind it. It’s a bit of a softer period at 14 seconds, so it won’t be a freight train, but for a Sunday morning paddle, it’s looking fun. The afternoon goes a bit cross, still 6.2ft, but the vibe drops off.

Monday the 3rd is a write-off. The swell drops to 4.3ft, the wind goes cross-onshore and choppy, and it’s just poor. You’re better off doing anything else.

Then it starts to get interesting. Tuesday the 4th sees the swell jump back up to 8.2ft, and the energy is really kicking – 4121 in the morning, 4157 in the arvo. The period is 19 seconds in the morning, which is a proper groundswell. That long period means it’s going to be powerful, but at a reef and point setup like this, that long period is your friend. The wind is cross-shore, so it won’t be perfect, but there’s plenty of juice. This is when the more experienced crew should be looking.

Wednesday the 5th keeps the size at 8.2ft, but the morning is a bit choppy. The afternoon, though, is the standout for the first week. The swell bumps to 9.8ft, the period holds at 16 seconds, and the wind goes offshore with a light NW breeze. Clean, big, and powering. The energy is massive at 4600. This is one of the best calls of the whole stretch.

Thursday the 6th is still solid at 9.8ft in the morning with a similar energy, but the wind is cross-on, so it’s a bit messier. The afternoon drops slightly to 8.2ft and goes more west, but the wind turns onshore and it gets poor.

Friday the 7th brings some light rain and a cross-off breeze in the morning, keeping things clean with 9.8ft on offer. The afternoon is bigger wind, more cross-shore chop, and a lower score. Not the best.

Now, if you’re looking for the true standout of this whole outlook, it’s Saturday the 8th. Morning and afternoon, we’ve got 13.1ft and 11.5ft of WSW swell, a 16-second period, and a moderate S cross-off wind keeping it clean. The combined energy is screaming – 7262 in the morning, 6273 in the arvo. This is big, powerful surf. At this size, it’s expert territory only, and it’s going to be a proper session for those who know what they’re doing. This is the one to circle on the calendar.

After that, the following week gets a bit more inconsistent. Sunday the 9th is smaller, 8.2ft, with light cross-on winds. It’s surfable but not special. Monday the 10th is poor, with a fresh cross-onshore breeze and then a near gale risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Stay off the water.

Tuesday the 11th is a mixed bag. The morning has a strong breeze but it’s cross-off, so it’s clean, with 7.2ft and a 16-second period. The afternoon is better – a fresh ESE offshore wind, clean conditions, same size. A decent pick if you need a mid-week fix.

Wednesday the 12th and Thursday the 13th are both on the bigger side at 9.8ft and 8.2ft, with strong cross-off winds keeping the surface clean. But the wind is strong, and the scores aren’t high. It’s powerful but a bit wild.

Friday the 14th settles down to 5.9ft with clean cross-off conditions. It’s a nice, mellow option.

The long-range stuff, into the second week, is all about the weekend of the 15th and 16th. Saturday the 15th has excellent conditions in the morning – clear skies, a gentle E cross-off breeze, and 6.6ft of WSW swell with a 16-second period. It’s clean and manageable. Sunday the 16th is similar, with a light ESE offshore wind and 5.6ft in the morning. Both are promising, but they’re a week and a half out, so treat them as a “could be good” rather than a certainty.

One last thing – the 17th sees the swell jump back to 9.8ft and then 11.5ft, but the period drops to 8 seconds in the morning

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