Donkin Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Donkin Bay all morning. Let’s be straight with it – this is a frustrating 16-day run for the South African coast. We’ve got a lot of swell on the table, but the wind gods are playing hard to get, and the water is flipping cold. Most of the time, the conditions are just too messy to get excited about. There’s a big gap of poor surf in the second week, but we do have a couple of windows that are worth paddling out for.

The whole period kicks off with a pulse of energy, but it’s immediately compromised. The combined swell energy is a solid 1548 (moderate to strong) on Sunday morning, the 30th of August, with a 7ft WSW swell and a 13-second period. That’s proper groundswell. But the wind is a cross-off from the S at 9 mph, which keeps it clean enough. The water temperature is a chilly 55°, which is 4° colder than normal – that’s a biting anomaly, so you’ll want a thick steamer. Donkin Bay is a reef and point, and that longer period (13 seconds) will work well here, offering shaped-up lines. The score is low, but it’s the best we’ve got early on, with clean conditions. Sunday afternoon goes to hell though – the wind swings to the SSW and cranks up to 22 mph, turning the sea into a lumpy cross-chop mess. Forget it.

Monday the 31st is a write-off. The swell drops to 6ft, but the wind is still cross from the SSW at 9 mph in the morning, and then 19 mph in the afternoon, ruining any chance of a good session. The energy is down to 857 (moderate), and the surf is just not worth the effort.

Tuesday the 1st of September is similar. The morning has 6ft SW swell with a 11-second period, and the wind is a light cross-off at 9 mph, so it’s clean. The combined energy is 882 (moderate). But the onshore breeze picks up again in the afternoon, and the scores are low. It’s a maybe session, but I wouldn’t rush.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting, but also dangerous. Wednesday morning, the 2nd of September, we see a spike in the swell. The combined energy hits 2451 (strong) with a 8ft SW swell and a 14-second period. That’s a long-period groundswell, and on a reef setup like Donkin Bay, it’ll be a show. The wind is a light cross from the SSW at 6 mph, with only small ripples. This is the standout of the entire forecast. The waves will be powerful, with big gaps between sets. However, at 8ft, this is expert territory. Beginners should stay well clear. The morning is your window, because the afternoon wind picks up to 16 mph and chops it up.

Thursday the 3rd of September is a complete disaster. The swell is huge – 12ft to 13ft – but the wind is howling from the W at 37 mph in the morning, and then from the SSW at 28 mph in the afternoon. The combined energy is 4185 (very strong). This is a full-blown storm. The surf will be huge, messy, and dangerous. Don’t even think about it unless you’re on a tow-in sled. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

After that, the swell fades fast. Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th of September have small, 4ft to 4ft swell, with clean conditions on Saturday morning when the wind goes ESE at 9 mph (offshore). The combined energy is weak, around 276. It’s a small, clean wave for a longboard or a funboard, but nothing to write home about.

Then we hit a massive gap. From Sunday the 6th of September all the way through to Sunday the 13th of September, the surf is tiny, weak, or blown out. The combined energy drops to between 75 and 451. Most days have poor conditions, with cross-shore winds or strong breezes. The waves are mostly under 3ft, with periods all over the place. The morning of the 13th of September has a clean 2ft wave with offshore wind, but it’s just not enough. The gaps between good surf are nearly a week long.

The final few days, the 14th and 15th of September, are more of the same – small, weak, and onshore. The energy is around 210. No standouts here.

So, if you’re really keen, your best bet is Wednesday morning, the 2nd of September. That’s the one. Get there early, wear a thick wetsuit, and be ready for a powerful, long-period groundswell that will wrap around the point. The rest of the 16 days is mostly a waiting game. Stay patient, and the ocean owes us one.

Rusty.

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