Depressions Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's see what's coming down the pipe.

Honestly, the outlook is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of pretty average to poor conditions right through the period. The first week is a write-off with near-daily "poor surf conditions" flags. The second week gets a little more interesting with a few "marginal" days, but nothing that screams "drop everything and paddle out."

The main issue is the wind. It's mostly onshore or cross-onshore, blowing from the WSW and SW. Even when the swell is directional, the wind is just not playing ball. The water temp is sitting at about 64° at the start, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year.

Let's break it down. The first real, albeit weak, pulses start around July 13th and 14th. The swell is tiny – 1.0ft to 2ft – and the wind is onshore or cross-on. The combined energy is weak, sitting between 92 and 180 (a real dribble). The 15th sees a bump in swell with a 3ft to 5ft push from the WNW, but it's a short-period wind swell (6–7 seconds) and the cross-onshore wind is already making it choppy. The energy jumps to 202–252 (moderate), but the quality is poor. This continues through the 16th, with moderate energy hitting 391, but the wind keeps it messy.

July 17th is the first day we see a "marginal" tag, with a 3ft swell from the WNW in the morning. The wind is onshore, but it's light. The afternoon drops to 1ft with a 17-second period, which is a very long groundswell, but the size is tiny. This long period could make it a bit straight at a beach break, but it's so small it's hardly worth worrying about. The 18th and 19th of July are both marginal and small, with light onshore winds, and the energy is moderate (346–484). The same pattern holds for the 20th and 21st. July 22nd is a "poor" morning, but the afternoon gets a "marginal" tag with a 2ft swell from the SSW.

Now, July 23rd offers the best chance of the whole outlook. The morning has a 3ft swell from the SSE with a 15-second period. The energy jumps to 602 (strong), and the wind is a light cross-shore from the SE. This is the only window where the wind direction is actually working for us. The 24th also holds some promise with a 3ft swell from the S and a 13-second period, with energy at 509 (strong) and a light cross-shore wind. The afternoon on the 24th has onshore wind again, but the morning is the standout.

After that, the 25th and 26th of July fall back into "poor" conditions with onshore wind and a drop in energy. July 27th is "marginal" in the morning, but the 28th is a flat close.

So, the standout, if you can call it that, is Depressions, but only for the mornings of July 23rd and 24th. The swell is small (3ft) but from the SSE, which is a decent direction. The wind is light and cross-shore, which will keep it clean. The period is a healthy 13–15 seconds, so it's real groundswell. The energy is strong (over 500). The crowds are listed as "sometimes," so you might have some company. The big caveat is that these are still "marginal" conditions, not great. The other days, it's a lot of waiting for a tiny, messy wave.

If you're a beginner, the swell rarely gets above 5ft, so size isn't the issue. It's the consistency and the messy wind that will make it frustrating. For the first week, forget it. For the second week, the 23rd and 24th mornings are your best bet, but keep your expectations low.

Rusty.

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