Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here.

Alright, look. I’ve stared at the charts for Church Cove for the next couple of weeks, and honestly, it’s a bit of a grim picture for us paddle surfers. We’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions and onshore winds messing things up. It’s going to be a real test of patience.

The really frustrating part is that there are waves on the way, but the wind just won’t play ball. Monday the 7th starts things off with a decent pulse of swell – we’re looking at around 7ft from the WSW with a 13-second period, and the combined energy is strong at 1571. But the wind is howling from the WNW at 12 mph and it’s a messy cross-shore, making it choppy and uninviting. That’s a lot of power but zero quality. It feels like a crime to waste that much swell.

The whole first week is pretty much a write-off. The winds stay fresh and onshore, swinging from the NW and W, keeping the surface lumpy and the vibe off. There are a couple of moments, like Tuesday morning the 8th, where it’s cross-offshore and clean with 6ft of swell, but the 806 energy is moderate and the 9-second period isn't great, and the overall score is just too low to get excited about. It’s one of those frustrating times where the ocean is busy but not for us. It’s not until the weekend that things start to fade, with the swell dropping right down to under 3ft by Saturday the 12th, but at least the wind eases off to a near-calm 3 mph in the morning. The energy is weak (201), so it’s a total flat spell, but the ocean will at least look pretty.

We’ve got to look at the middle of the second week for the only real hope. Wednesday the 16th is the standout. The morning is looking at a 5ft swell from the W with an 11-second period, and the wind is a gentle cross-shore from the NW at 9 mph. The energy is moderate at 545, and it’s got that “marginal” tag, likely due to tides, but it’s the cleanest surf we’re going to see in this entire run. It’s a small window, so be ready.

Just before that, Tuesday the 15th has slightly bigger surf at 6ft from the W with a long 11-second period and decent energy (764), but the wind is a fresh, lumpy cross-onshore at 22 mph. That will be blown out and messy. And after Wednesday, it all just falls apart again with the wind picking up and the swell turning to junk. The water temp is 64°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so you won’t need the thickest suit, but you might need a whole lot of patience.

Honestly, for anything worth paddling out for, you’re waiting until Wednesday the 16th. It’s a promise, not a guarantee, but it's the only real card we’ve got to play. Keep your eyes on the forecast because it can change, but as it stands, we’re in for a drought.

Catch you in the water.

Rusty

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