Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve got to be straight with you – the next 16 days at Church Cove are a real struggle. This spot is inconsistent at the best of times, and this forecast is a long, drawn-out dry spell. We’re looking at a solid two-week gap with nothing worth paddling for, starting from now, Sunday the 19th of July, all the way through to Friday the 31st of July. The water is sitting at a very unusual 67°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s the only good news. The swell is tiny, weak, and the wind is mostly cross or cross-off, but the heights barely reach 1.0 ft most days. The combined energy is a pathetic 4 to 22 (weak energy) – there’s just no power. Even when the wind goes glassy on Monday afternoon the 20th, the swell is only 1.0 ft with a period of 11 seconds, so it’s a flat, clean lake, not surf.

The first faint glimmer comes on Saturday the 25th of July, but it’s poor. The swell bumps up to 3 ft to 3 ft from the WNW, but the period is a short 5 to 6 seconds, and the wind is a fresh cross breeze at 12 to 19 mph, making it lumpy and choppy. Combined energy is still low at 42 to 67 (weak). Not worth it.

A bigger pulse hits on Sunday the 26th of July morning, with a 5 ft swell from the WNW and a period of 7 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 194 (moderate energy), but the wind is a moderate cross breeze, creating a messy cross-chop. That size is still manageable for most, but the quality is poor. The afternoon drops to 4 ft with cross-on wind, making it choppy. Again, not a good look.

The best chance in the whole outlook, and I mean the only one I’d even consider, is on Saturday the 1st of August. The morning shows a 3 ft swell from the WNW with a period of 10 seconds, and the wind is a light cross breeze. The combined energy is 157 (moderate energy). This is the standout. The swell direction matches the optimum SW guidance reasonably well, and the light wind will keep it reasonably clean. Still, it’s Church Cove, which is inconsistent, so don’t expect a lot. The afternoon gets ruined by a moderate cross-on breeze.

After that, it’s back to tiny, weak surf. The very last morning on Monday the 3rd of August finally shows clean conditions with an offshore wind from the ENE, but the swell is a paltry 2 ft. The wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” with a score of 1. That’s as good as it gets, and it’s barely a whisper.

Bottom line: this is a blank run. The area is prone to these long flat spells, and this is one of them. If you’re desperate, the morning of the 1st of August is your only real shot, but keep your expectations low. For now, forecasts can change, but it’s a tough outlook.

Rusty.

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