Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s talk shop. We've got Church Cove on the radar for the next 16 days, and it’s gonna be a bit of a grind to start. The water’s running a touch warmer than average for the season, coming in around 64°F, which is a slight but noticeable bump.

The first few days, right through the 20th, are pretty much a no-go. Lots of cross-shore wind, lumpy and choppy conditions, and the swell’s just messy. The energy is there in patches, but it’s not organized. Don’t even think about paddling out for that slop. We’re looking at about five days of nothing worthwhile.

Then, on the morning of the 21st, the wind finally goes offshore, light, and things clean up. Waves drop to a bit over 4 feet, west swell with a 12-second period. It’s not big, but it’s clean. That’s your first real window, but it’s modest. The afternoon stays clean too, just a touch smaller.

The 22nd is where it gets interesting. Morning is small, around 3 feet, but the afternoon pulses up to about 5 feet with a longer 16-second period from the west. The energy really jumps, and with that offshore-cross wind, it should set up nicely. This is the standout of the first week. Long-period groundswell like that will love a point or reef setup, which bodes well here. Keep in mind, crowds can be around sometimes.

The next few days, the wind stays favorable, but the swell gets inconsistent and fades. The 25th has a bump of around 5 feet in the afternoon, but nothing that’ll get you too worked up.

Now, into the second week, it’s more of a mixed bag. The 29th brings some serious size—8 feet in the morning, pushing 10 feet in the afternoon—but the period drops to 9-10 seconds and the wind will be howling. That’s big, short-period stuff. Only for the experts, and even then, it could be a washing machine.

The 30th still has some push, around 8 feet from the southwest, but it’s not looking clean. Then we get to the 1st of October. This is the other real standout. The morning shows around 7 feet from the west, but the period is a short 7 seconds. However, the wind is proper offshore (ENE) and moderate. It’s forecast for good surf conditions. That’s a window where the wind is right, it’s clean, and there’s enough swell to have a blast. It’s about ten days out, so treat it as promising but not locked in. The short period won’t be perfect, but that offshore breeze will make it work. This might just be the pick of the whole two-week stretch.

So, there you have it. The first five days are a wash. Your best bets are the afternoon of the 22nd and the morning of the 1st of October. The 29th has plenty of size, but it’s strictly for the experienced crew given the winds. Keep an eye on that first clean offshore morning. That’s the one.

Rusty.

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