Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, grab a cuppa and settle in. The outlook for Church Cove is a bit of a tale of two halves. For the first week, we’re looking at tiny, weak waves that just won’t cooperate. The good news is that a definite pulse of size arrives in the second week, but it comes with a whole lot of wind. The standouts are few and far between, but there is one moment of magic if you’re patient.

The week starts off flat and frustrating. From Saturday the 18th through to Friday the 24th, we’re dealing with tiny little 0.7ft to 1ft waves. The energy is incredibly weak, with the combined swell energy reading between 6 and 33 (weak energy). The water temperature is a very unusual 66°, which is a massive 4° warmer than normal for this time of year – feels like a warm bath out there. Most of this period is plagued by cross-offshore winds, but on Monday afternoon the 20th, it goes glassy. The problem is, there’s only 1.0ft of swell on a long 11-second period, which is a groundswell, but it’s just not enough to push anything rideable. Don’t expect to get wet.

Then we hit a bit of a gap. The surf quality stays poor, but the size starts to build. Saturday the 25th sees a jump to 3ft-4ft, but the wind is straight onshore and lumpy, so it’s messy. The combined swell energy is starting to crank up, hitting 110 (moderate wave energy) on the Saturday afternoon, but it’s not worth paddling out for.

Sunday the 26th is where things get serious for the wrong reasons. We’ve got a solid 6ft of swell from the west, with a combined energy of 426 (strong to very strong wave energy), but it’s being hammered by a fresh cross-onshore breeze at 19 mph. This makes for a lumpy, ugly mess. This swell is 6ft, which is getting too big for beginners, and the wind is just ruining it. The same goes for Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th – plenty of size (3ft to 6ft) and energy (126 to 345), but all with onshore or cross-onshore winds. It’s a write-off for paddle surfing; this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing.

The real standout, if you can call it that, arrives on Thursday the 30th of July. The swell is 6ft from the west-northwest, with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is a huge 427 (strong to very strong wave energy). The catch? The wind is a strong onshore breeze from the south-southwest at 19 mph. This is going to be raw, powerful, and blown out. This is expert-only territory – the size is over 5ft, and the wind will make it treacherous. It’s not a day for the faint-hearted.

The best chance of a clean wave comes right at the end of the forecast. On Friday the 31st of July, we finally get a break. The swell drops to a more manageable 5ft from the west-northwest, with a period of 7 seconds. The combined energy is still substantial at 284 (strong wave energy). But the big change is the wind: a fresh offshore breeze from the northeast at 19 mph. The forecast says “fresh offshore and clean”, and it’s the only time in the whole period the wind and swell line up. The combined energy of 284 is moderate to strong. This is your go. It’s a bit of a late call, but it’s the only window for a proper, clean wave. Expect crowds to be possible at Church Cove, as it’s the only game in town. Saturday the 1st of August also offers offshore winds and a 3ft-4ft swell, but it’s not as good as the Friday.

So, to be straight with you: the first week is a no-go. The second week has size but mostly onshore wind, turning it into a washing machine. The only true standout is Friday the 31st of July – that’s your day. Get on it early, because it’s the only decent window we’ve got.

Rusty.

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