Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking for Church Cove. Gotta be straight with you – the next two weeks are looking pretty lean for a proper paddle. There’s a long stretch of nothing really worth getting excited about, so if you’re keen for a wave, you’ll need to be patient and keep your expectations low.

The water is sitting at 67°, which is *much warmer than normal* for this time of year – a real anomaly at nearly 3° above average. That’s a standout detail, but it’s not going to make the surf any better.

From Tuesday the 28th of July right through until the 5th of August, it’s a write-off. We’ve got a mix of cross-on, cross-shore, and onshore winds, mostly light to moderate, but the swell is small – under 3 ft – and the combined energy is weak, mostly under 100. The wave comment is consistently “poor surf conditions” with a score of 0. There’s nothing to chase here.

The first real glimmer comes on Thursday the 6th of August. That morning, we get a clean, light cross-off breeze from the ENE at 6 mph, with a small 3 ft swell from the SW. The combined energy is only 69, and it’s described as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions”. It’s not a standout, but it’s the first time the wind is actually clean. The swell period is a short 7 seconds, so it’ll be a bit weak and won’t hold much shape. It’s a quiet window for a longboard if you’re desperate.

Then, on Saturday the 8th of August, we get a brief moment that’s worth noting. The morning is glassy – zero wind – and there’s a 3 ft swell from the WNW. That’s the cleanest conditions in the entire 16-day window. The energy is still weak at 69, and the period is a paltry 6 seconds, so it’s going to be small, crumbly, and very short-period. But glassy conditions at Church Cove are a treat, and if you’re a beginner, this is your best bet. The break is inconsistent, so don’t expect a wave every minute, but for a quiet paddle, it’s a winner.

After that, it’s back to the bad news. On Monday the 10th of August, a bigger push of swell arrives – 6 ft from the W with a combined energy of 580 – but it’s accompanied by a fresh cross-onshore breeze at 19 mph, making it lumpy and messy. That’s a lot of energy but with poor wind, it’s going to be a choppy, blown-out mess. Not for paddle surfing – that’s kite territory if anything.

The rest of the window into the second week is more of the same: small, weak, or onshore. The 12th of August has clean cross-off winds but the swell is barely 2 ft. It’s just not happening.

So, the honest truth: there’s no true standout. The best on offer is the glassy morning on the 8th of August, but it’s small and inconsistent. If you’re a beginner or just want to sit on a board in perfect conditions, that’s your moment. For everyone else, it’s a long wait for something that never really arrives.

Rusty.

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