Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Let’s break down what Church Cove is looking like over the next couple of weeks.

Forget the first few days. Tuesday the 15th through Sunday the 20th is a total loss. A fresh cross-shore breeze is tearing it up, making for lumpy, choppy conditions. We’ve got some 5 to 6ft swell out there, but it’s short period and weak – the combined energy is way down in the low hundreds (436). Not even worth getting the wetsuit on.

The first real chance to get wet comes on Monday the 21st. The wind backs off to a light cross-offshore breeze from the east, and the ocean turns glassy. Swell drops to a clean 4ft from the west, but with a nice long 12-second wait between sets (423 energy). It’s small but clean. Tuesday the 22nd keeps that same vibe, going glassy in the afternoon – a 4ft, 10-second west groundswell (308 energy) for a fun, mellow session. A nice little window in an otherwise grim start.

Now, the big one. Circle Wednesday the 23rd. This is the day. Morning delivers a clean 5ft west swell with a very long 14-second period, the combined energy jumping to 1277 – that’s proper groundswell. Light east-northeast wind, cross-offshore. Come afternoon, it gets even better: a solid 7ft west swell at 13 seconds, with the energy cranking up to 1672. The wind stays light and clean. That’s excellent, powerful surf, but it’s strictly for experienced folks. That long period will give the waves great shape, but on a beach break, it might run a bit straight. Crowds are a possibility at this spot when it’s on, so get there early if you can.

After that peak, it fades. Thursday the 24th and Friday the 25th are still clean with that cross-offshore flow, but the swell drops to the 4 to 5ft range and the energy falls back to the 290 to 780 range. Surfable, but nothing special. By Saturday the 26th it’s down to knee-high dribble. Then from Sunday the 27th through the end of the month, just forget it. A strong breeze kicks up, blowing out any last bit of swell. You’ll see clean faces on tiny 2 to 4ft waves, but with the wind howling at 20 to 25 mph, you’ll just be getting blown off your board.

Water temp is about normal for this time of year, nothing unusual.

So here’s the deal: the first week is mostly a wash. The real gems are the 21st and 22nd for a clean small-wave session, and the absolute standout is Wednesday the 23rd. That one has real power. It’s a long way out, so keep your fingers crossed, but that’s the one to aim for.

Rusty.

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