Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

First off, I’ll be honest with you – the outlook for Church Cove over the next 16 days is a tough one. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf conditions, with the swell energy staying weak for the most part. The first recommendation for a surf doesn’t actually show up until Wednesday the 29th of July, and even then it’s only just surfable with very ordinary conditions. There’s a real gap of nothing worth paddling out for from now until then.

So, let’s run through it. Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th of July have tiny, weak swell with poor conditions, and the wind is all over the place – cross-off, cross-shore – nothing clean. The combined energy is pathetic, under 40 (19 to 39). Sunday the 26th sees a jump in swell height to 7ft, but it’s a messy cross-shore wind with a fresh breeze, and the combined energy hits 394 to 403 – moderate, but the quality is poor. The water is currently 68°F, which is a huge 5°F warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual, and it’s the warmest thing about this forecast.

Through Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th, the swell drops back down to under 4ft, light winds but still cross-on. The energy is moderate on Monday (around 215-228) but drops to weak on Tuesday (113 and then 88). Wednesday the 29th of July is the first time we get a "surfable" nod – a small 2ft swell from the WNW, with a light cross-off breeze from the north, keeping it clean. The period is short at 9 seconds, and the energy is only 85, so it’s weak. But if you’re desperate, you could get a few grovelly ones. Thursday the 30th of July has glassy conditions in the morning (SSE 3 mph) with a tiny 2ft swell, but it’s still poor surf conditions – the combined energy is just 55.

Friday the 31st of July is odd – morning has a tiny 1ft swell from the SW with a long period of 13 seconds, but it’s onshore and weak energy (73). The afternoon gets a 4ft swell from the WSW with a 12-second period, and the energy jumps to 408 – moderate and decent in size, but still onshore wind and poor conditions.

Now, the only real standout in this whole 16-day window is Saturday the 1st of August. That morning, we’ve got a 7ft swell from the WSW, with a long period of 12 seconds. The combined energy is strong at 1160, and the wind is a light cross-on breeze from the WSW. It’s flagged as "marginal" due to tide, but that’s the biggest, most powerful swell of the whole forecast. The afternoon is similar at 6ft, 11 seconds, 885 energy, with a gentle cross-shore. This is for experts only – 7ft is over the 5ft mark, so beginners should stay out. The long period (12 seconds) means it’s a groundswell, and at a fairly exposed spot like Church Cove, it could offer some proper lines, but it might be a bit too straight for the beach break. The water is still going to be around that warm anomaly.

After that, it drops off again. Sunday the 2nd of August has 6ft, but the wind is moderate and cross-off in the morning, keeping it clean – energy is 540, so moderate. But the afternoon turns cross-shore again. Then from Monday the 3rd through to Friday the 7th of August, it’s all poor, with strong onshore winds and lumpy, choppy conditions. The swell is between 5ft and 8ft, but the wind is fresh to strong, and the energy is moderate to strong (up to 729), but it’s a mess. Saturday the 8th of August is back to tiny 2ft, clean but weak.

Overall, if you’re looking for the best of a bad lot, your pick is Saturday the 1st of August morning at Church Cove. That’s the one with the biggest swell and the most energy, but keep your expectations low on the quality. The rest of the run is a write-off or only for the die-hards.

Rusty.

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