Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's talk about Church Cove. Straight up, this is a tough outlook. We've got a solid 16-day window ahead, but it’s a long, long wait for anything worth paddling out for.

Right now, the water is sitting at about 64°, which is a touch warmer than normal for the time of year. That’s about the only thing that’s going for us for a while.

For the first week, from August 27th right through to at least September 3rd, it’s pretty much a write-off. We’ve got a messy mix of strong onshore and cross-onshore winds, with a lot of wind from the SW and WSW. The swell is there, sure, but it’s all short-period windswell, and the wind is just killing any chance of a clean wave. You’re looking at lumpy, choppy, messy conditions. Not worth the wetsuit. Even when the swell bumps up on the 29th and 30th, with moderate to strong wave energy (643 and 2133 on the combined scale), the onshore wind just ruins it.

There’s a flicker of hope on Monday, August 31st morning. We get a bit of a drop in the wind and a clean-ish cross-shore breeze. The swell is a solid 8ft from the W with a 10-second period, giving it good energy (1599). But the file says the surf is marginal due to questionable tide conditions, so it’s a risky call at best. Not a standout.

From there, we slide back into onshore slop for a few more days. September 5th morning actually has a light onshore breeze and 7ft of swell, but the wind direction is wrong, and we’ve had days of poor quality before it.

Then, we get to the second week. September 9th afternoon is the best on offer. The wind is a moderate cross-onshore from the S, but we finally see a shift in the swell. The period jumps to 12 seconds, a proper groundswell from the WSW, with a solid 6ft of height. The combined energy is 823, which is decent. This is the only real standout in the whole 16-day window. It’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it, but this is the one session that could actually deliver some clean lines at Church Cove if that wind backs off just a touch. The crowds can be around sometimes here, so you might have company.

After that, the wind turns onshore again, and the swell drops off, leaving us with small, choppy waves right through to September 11th.

So, to sum it up: a whole lot of nothing for a long time, with one possible session on September 9th afternoon. Don't hold your breath on anything before that.

Rusty.

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