Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’re looking at Church Cove, and honestly, it’s a bit of a tough run for the next couple of weeks.

Right now, the water is sitting at 67°, which is a solid 5° warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a standout – you’ll be feeling that bath-like warmth as you sit out there, even if the waves aren't playing ball.

The first week is a real struggle. We’re talking about tiny, weak swell. From Monday the 20th of July, right through to the end of the month, it’s a long stretch of frustratingly small conditions. The swell barely gets above 1 ft for most of that, and the wave energy is pathetic – we’re seeing numbers like 10 to 33 (combined energy of all swells directed here). It’s just not worth paddling out for. The winds are a mixed bag, with some glassy mornings like Thursday the 23rd, but the swell just isn’t there to back it up.

There’s a bit of a lift on Saturday the 25th. The afternoon pushes up to a bumpy 3 ft, but it’s on a short 5-second period, which is just junky, and the fresh cross-onshore wind makes it lumpy. The combined energy climbs to 68 (combined energy of all swells directed here), but it’s still a messy, low-quality affair. You’d have to be pretty desperate.

Then Sunday the 26th sees a bigger jump. The morning brings 5 ft, and the afternoon hits 6 ft from the WNW with a 7-second period. The energy is up to 345 (combined energy of all swells directed here), and the wind is cross-off, so it’s clean. But the period is short, so it’s going to be a bit of a wall of whitewater. For a rare break like Church Cove, this is the most interesting window in the first week, but it’s still not the good stuff.

The best day on offer is Thursday the 30th of July. The morning shows 5 ft of WNW swell, with clean, gentle offshore winds from the NE. The combined energy is a moderate 156 (combined energy of all swells directed here). It’s not huge, but it’s surfable and clean. This is your top pick in the near term.

Looking further out, the end of the month and into August brings a big spike. Friday the 31st of July is a monster. The morning has 10 ft from the W with a 9-second period, and the wave energy is a massive 1220 (combined energy of all swells directed here). The wind is strong cross-off, so it’ll be clean. But this is big – over 8 ft, so it’s strictly for experts only. The afternoon is even bigger, with energy hitting 2021 (combined energy of all swells directed here) and a 25 mph wind. This is a serious, powerful swell.

After that, it drops off quickly. The 1st of August is a messy 5 ft with cross-chop, and by the 4th of August, we’re looking at 8 ft and 7 ft again, but with onshore winds and a lot of energy (1568 and 1464 combined energy of all swells directed here), making it look more like a kite-surfing zone than a paddling spot.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off. Your best bet is Thursday the 30th of July for a clean, small session. The big swell on the 31st is for the brave and experienced only. The long-range stuff is promising but much less certain.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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