Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let’s have a look at the picture for Church Cove over the next couple of weeks. Straight up, I gotta be honest with you – it’s a pretty grim run ahead for this stretch. The wave energy is weak to moderate at best, and the conditions just don’t line up for a good paddle. There’s a fair gap of poor surf right through the first week and a bit.

The water temp is sittin’ at a touch warmer than average for the time of year, about 63°.

We start off on Thursday, 2nd of July, with a 6ft W swell, but it’s got a nasty 16 mph NW cross wind on it and the combined energy is only moderate at 632. The report says poor surf conditions straight away and I ain’t arguing. Friday, the 3rd, the swell drops to 5ft from the W, but the wind is cross-on both morning and afternoon, so it’s choppy and messy. No joy. Saturday the 4th and Sunday the 5th are similar stories – waist-to-chest high W swell but with cross winds and a moderate cross-chop. The wave energy drops through the 200s and into the 100s. It’s just not happening.

Monday the 6th through to Tuesday the 7th, the swell punks right out, dropping below 3ft. The energy values are down in the double digits – 123 and lower – so it’s barely a ripple. Winds are light or moderate cross, but there’s no power in the water.

There’s a tiny glimmer on Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th – the wind goes cross-off from the east, and the reports say the surf is “clean”, but the swell is tiny, only 2ft to 3ft from the W, with a period around 9-10 seconds. The energy is still low, around 81 to 129. You *could* get a little log out, but it’s not going to be memorable. That clean window gets blown out by Friday the 10th and Saturday the 11th though, as the E wind picks up to a strong breeze of 28 mph on Friday, and then swings SE on Saturday with a messy cross wind.

Now, we get a bit more interesting around Monday the 13th of July. Monday morning there’s a tiny 2ft swell with a very long period of 15 seconds – glassy conditions, but that’s a long-period groundswell for you. It’s breaking pretty straight at a beach break, so not the best shape, and the energy jumps to 230 even with the small height. Monday afternoon gets a bigger 4ft W swell at 13 seconds, but the wind goes cross. The energy jumps right up to a strong 648, so there’s plenty of grunt in the water, but the cross wind will put a chop on it. Tuesday the 14th of July morning is where I’d circle the date, honestly. The swell is 4ft from the W at a solid 11-second period, combined energy is a strong 438, and the wind is glassy. That’s clean, with some decent power. The report even says “expect good surf conditions” – a rare positive! That’s your best window right there. Crowds are listed as *sometimes*, so you might share it, but with that glassy W wind, it’ll be smooth.

After that, Wednesday the 15th through Friday the 17th, the wind goes strong easterly again, blowing 16 to 22 mph cross-off, but the swell drops and the conditions get poor once more, with readings of 0 or poor surf throughout. The last few days have weak W swells under 4ft with on or cross-on winds and energy dropping right back into double digits.

So, if you’re keen, keep your eyes on Tuesday the 14th of July morning. That 4ft W swell with glassy conditions and solid energy is the standout in a pretty bleak forecast. Everything else is a write-off or just too small.

Rusty.

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