Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey, Rusty here, and I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – Church Cove is in a dry spell right now. This little spot gets a fair bit of southwest swell, but for the next week and a half, it’s mostly tiny or messy. There’s a long gap of poor surf, but the very end of the outlook finally shows some promise.

Starting Sunday the 16th, the morning is clean with a light cross-off breeze from the NNW, but the swell is only 2ft out of the west with a short 7-second period – combined energy is weak at 42, so not worth paddling out. The water temperature is 67°F, which is 4°F warmer than normal – that’s noticeably warm. By the afternoon, a cross-shore wind picks up and the small 2ft swell gets choppy.

Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th see the swell bump to 3ft, but the wind is cross-on from the WNW at 15-19 mph. The combined energy climbs to moderate (127 and 116), but the wave quality is poor – lumpy and choppy. Not good for paddling.

Wednesday the 19th brings bigger surf – 6ft in the morning building to 7ft by the afternoon, out of the WNW and west, period 7-8 seconds. Combined energy hits 325 and 499 – strong. But the cross-on wind is 19-22 mph, so the surface is lumpy and onshore. At this size, beginners should stay out, and with that wind, it’s ugly.

Thursday the 20th is the peak: 8ft swell out of the west, period 9 seconds, combined energy 811 – that’s strong. But the wind is still a fresh cross-shore 22 mph, so it’s lumpy. Power is there, but not clean.

Friday the 21st the swell drops to 4ft in the morning, and the wind goes cross-off from the NNW at 16 mph – finally clean. Combined energy is 251, moderate. Period is 8 seconds. The afternoon fades to 3ft and cross-shore.

From Saturday the 22nd through Thursday the 27th, it’s flat – 0.7ft to 2ft swell, combined energy between 18 and 89 – weak. Clean conditions many days, but barely enough wave to ride.

Now the standout – Friday the 28th. Morning sees 5ft out of the west, 7-second period, cross-off breeze from the east at 9 mph – combined energy 429, strong. Still marginal, but by the afternoon the wind goes glassy – dead calm – and the swell holds at 6ft from the WSW, period 7 seconds. That glassy surface and 326 combined energy is a glimmer of hope.

But the real highlight is Saturday the 29th. Morning brings a solid 8ft swell out of the WNW with a 9-second period, combined energy a massive 1426 – very strong. The wind is offshore from the northeast at 9 mph, clean. This is excellent surf, but at 8ft it’s for experienced surfers only. The afternoon drops to 5ft out of the west, period 8 seconds, combined energy 300, still clean with a light cross-off breeze. Saturday the 29th is the best day.

Sunday the 30th fades to 3ft-3ft, weak energy, and by the afternoon a light cross-on wind creeps in. Monday the 31st has a pulse of 7ft out of the west, 7-second period, combined energy 555, and the morning is clean – but the afternoon turns glassy with 6ft out of the west, 9-second period, and 419 energy. That Monday afternoon could be a sneaky good session.

So bottom line: the next week and a half is mostly flat or blown out, but Saturday the 29th is the standout – big, clean, offshore, powerful. Friday the 28th afternoon with glassy conditions is also worth a look. Everything else? Leave the board at home.

Rusty.

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