Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for this stretch. Let’s be straight with you – we’ve got a long window ahead, but honestly, it’s a pretty quiet one for Church Cove. There’s a bit of a wait before anything even gets close to interesting, and even then, it’s more about the conditions being clean than the swell offering any real power.

The water here is sitting at 66°F, which is a solid 4°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s pretty notable – it’s much warmer than normal, so you might not need a thick wetsuit.

The first few days are a write-off. Sunday the 2nd and Monday the 3rd offer tiny, weak waves – only 2ft to 3ft – with weak energy (40 to 113). The wind is cross-off or cross-on, but the swell is just too small and gutless to bother with. Tuesday the 4th sees a bump to 4ft and 5ft from the SW, but a strong onshore wind of 15 to 22 mph kills it, and the wave energy is still moderate at best (177 to 212). The rest of the first week is a mess of lumpy, choppy, and poor surf conditions. Wednesday the 5th has the biggest swell of the whole period at 8ft, with a combined energy of 780, but it’s a fresh cross-onshore wind and the period is a short 8 seconds – it’s going to be a bumpy, blown-out mess. That’s strictly for experts, and even then, it’s not pretty.

There’s a big gap of nothing much from Thursday the 6th all the way through to the end of the first week. The swell drops fast, the wind stays messy, and the scores are all zero. We’re talking days of tiny, wind-affected junk.

The second week shows a shift in the wind, but the swell stays tiny. From Monday the 10th onwards, the wind goes light offshore or cross-off – nice and clean. But the swell is barely there: 0.7ft to 3ft, with weak energy (7 to 124). The longest period we see is 10 seconds on Tuesday the 11th afternoon, but the height is only 0.7ft, so it’s a flat, glassy lake. For a point break or reef, a long period with no size is a tease.

If you’re looking for a standout, the best on offer is probably the morning of Saturday the 15th. The swell picks up to 5ft from the WNW, with a moderate energy of 227, and the wind is a clean cross-off at 19 mph. The period is still short at 7 seconds, so it won’t have much punch, but it’ll be the cleanest, most rideable wave of the whole 16 days. The afternoon of the 15th is also worth a look – 5ft from the WNW, energy at 268, and clean cross-off wind. It’s marginal at best, but it’s the only time the conditions line up.

The rest of the second week is clean but flat. Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th have 3ft to 4ft waves with moderate energy, but the periods are short, and the swell is weak. It’s a long, drawn-out period of small, clean surf.

Overall, this is a tough outlook. The few days with any size are blown out, and the clean days have no swell. Church Cove is an inconsistent spot, and this stretch shows why. If you’re desperate, the morning of the 15th is your best bet. Otherwise, maybe give it a miss and check back later.

Rusty.

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