Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I've gotta be straight with you. Looking at the next 16 days for our area, it’s a bit of a flat spell, honestly. The main event, Church Cove, is an inconsistent wave even on a good day, and it’s rarely breaking, so we have to be realistic. The water here is sitting at 63°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that's a small comfort.

We start with a real quiet run. From Saturday the 4th right through until the morning of Wednesday the 8th, there are no surf recommendations at all. The data shows poor surf conditions with a lot of cross and cross-onshore wind making a mess of things, and the swell is small. There's weak wave energy, sitting at just 63 to 94 on the energy scale. Basically, don't bother paddling out until at least Wednesday.

Wednesday the 8th morning finally shows a glimmer. Church Cove sees a small 2ft west swell at a short 9-second period. The combined energy is still weak at 97, but the wind swings to a cross-offshore breeze from the ESE, and the notes say it's clean. It’s "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions," so you’ll be scratching for something small and gutless, but at least it's not a total blown-out mess. That same clean but small theme carries into Thursday and Friday morning, with those easterly cross-offshore breezes holding, and the swell staying at 3ft to 3ft. The energy is still in the weak category, only getting to 132.

Now, Saturday the 11th brings a pulse. The swell jumps to 4ft in the morning and 5ft in the afternoon, still from the west with a 10-second period. The wave energy ramps up to a moderate 327 and then 464, which is a significant jump. But here’s the rub: the wind gets messy again, swinging WNW and blowing at 12-16 mph, creating a cross-shore chop. The notes still say "poor surf conditions," so that size comes with a lot of wind texture. The swell direction is from the W, and Church Cove’s optimum direction is SW, so it’s not perfect, but it’s in the ballpark. This is the most energy we see, but it’s going to be a rough one. For an inconsistent spot like this, it might be worth a look if you’re desperate for something with a bit of push, but honestly, with that wind, it's going to be a struggle.

The whole second week, from the 14th onward, we're back to very small surf, mostly 2ft to 3ft, and weak energy. There are a couple of brief windows of clean conditions on Tuesday the 14th afternoon and Wednesday the 15th morning with cross-offshore light winds, giving a few surfable but ordinary waves, but nothing to get excited about. By Sunday the 19th, it goes glassy, but the swell is a tiny 1ft. So, it’s a lean run, folks. If you have to get wet, aim for the Wednesday the 8th morning or the short windows early in the second week for the cleanest, most forgiving conditions on the small stuff. Otherwise, don't hold your breath.

Rusty.

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