Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s on offer. I’ll level with you, it’s a tough stretch ahead. We’ve got a long, long gap with nothing worth paddling out for, so don’t be in a hurry.

Right now, the water temperature at Church Cove is a notable 64.2°F, which is 3.8°F warmer than usual for this time of year – that’s a real treat, but it's the only treat for a while. The combined wave energy for the first few days is weak, with readings of 166 and 171 on Friday the 10th, but the call is consistently "poor surf conditions". The swell is small, around 3.3ft from the west, but it’s a short-period 9 seconds windswell, and the wind is a moderate cross-off at 12 mph. It’s clean, but there’s just no juice.

From Saturday the 11th through Sunday the 19th of July, we are looking at a real desert. The swell drops to knee-high or below, with energy readings falling as low as 12. There's a brief moment of glass on the afternoon of the 17th, but with a swell of only 0.7ft from the south-southwest, it’s completely flat. You’d be polishing your board, not riding it.

The first glimmer of hope arrives on Tuesday the 21st of July. In the afternoon, the wind goes glassy with a slight air from the west-northwest at just 3 mph. The swell is a clean 1.6ft from the west at 10 seconds. The energy reading climbs to 96, and the conditions are finally described as "surfable waves but very ordinary". It’s small, but it’s the only game in town.

Then, things get interesting but messy. On Wednesday the 22nd of July morning, the swell jumps to 6.2ft from the west, with a short period of 7 seconds. The energy jumps right up to 353 – that's moderate now. However, the wind is a strong cross-off at 16 mph from the east-southeast. This is going to be a blustery, bumpy mess. It’s too big for beginners and the short period will make it dumpy.

Heading into the second week, on the 23rd and 24th, the swell stays around 4.3ft to 4.6ft with moderate energy (up to 331), but the wind swings onshore from the south-southwest or west-southwest. By Saturday the 25th of July, the swell hits 5.6ft to 5.9ft from the west, with energy soaring to 425 and 512 – strong energy. But it’s paired with a 19 mph onshore wind from the west-southwest and southwest, shredding any chance of a decent wave. With those conditions and a beach setup, honestly, this looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

So, the standout? There isn’t a true gem. If you’re desperate, Tuesday the 21st of July afternoon at Church Cove is your only shot at a glassy, ridable wave. After that, the swell comes up but the wind kills it. A long, frustrating forecast.

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