Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this is a tough one for Church Cove. We’ve got a solid 16-day window ahead, but it’s a real mixed bag of energy and wind, and honestly, most of it is a write-off for a good paddle. The water is sitting at a touch warmer than normal right now, about 65°, which is a bit of a treat for the end of summer.

The first proper surf we see is on Friday, August 28th. The morning is looking the most interesting of the whole run, but it’s a tease. We’ve got a 7ft swell rolling in from the west, with a short period of 7 seconds, and the wind is a clean cross-offshore from the north. The combined energy is moderate at 520. It’s clean, but that short period means it’ll be a bit crumbly, not a whole lot of push. Still, it’s the best we’ve got that day. The afternoon turns to junk with a cross-onshore wind.

From there, things get ugly. Saturday the 29th through the whole first week of September is a gong show. Swell sizes keep climbing into the 7ft to 10ft range, with combined energy soaring into the four-digit range (1021, 1373, 1021, etc.), but the wind is howling onshore or cross-onshore from the WSW and SW at 18 to 25 mph. This is classic kite-surfing territory, not for a paddle. The setup is a beach-and-reef mix, and with that much wind and swell, it’s going to be a messy, blown-out lump. Not for beginners, and honestly, not much fun for anyone.

The real kicker comes later. We get a huge, long-period groundswell arriving on Saturday, September 6th, and hanging around through the 8th. We’re talking 10ft at 12 seconds from the west, with combined energy readings over 2900. That’s serious, powerful energy. But again, the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, blowing 22 to 25 mph. With that long period, the sets are going to be super straight and powerful, but the wind will shred any chance of a clean face. This is expert-only, and even then, it’s a survival mission.

The absolute standout, and the only real window of hope, is the morning of Wednesday, September 9th. It’s a long way off, so keep that in mind, but the forecast is promising. We’ll have a 6ft west swell with a very long 12-second period, and a clean, light cross-offshore breeze from the northwest at 12 mph. The combined energy is a solid 773 – moderate, but with that period, it’ll have proper shape and power. For a point break or reef, that long period is magic, but at a beach break it can be a bit straight. Still, with the wind glassing it off, this is the only day in the whole 16 days that looks like a proper surf. The afternoon is a step down with a cross-shore breeze, so get it in the morning.

So, overall, it’s a pretty grim run. The first week is a washout, and the second week has massive swell but horrible wind. If you’re desperate, Friday the 28th morning gives you a tiny, clean wave. But the real one to circle on the calendar is Wednesday, September 9th. That’s your best bet, but it’s a long way out, so keep your fingers crossed.

Rusty

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