Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here, and I’ve been staring at the charts for our local stretch. Gotta be honest, it’s a rough 16 days ahead. The only spot we’re even looking at is Church Cove, and this break is inconsistent at the best of times. For the next two weeks, we’re mostly waiting for a moment that might not come.

Church Cove is a fairly exposed, SW-facing cove, and the wind is just ruining everything for most of the run. We’ve got a long, dry spell. From Tuesday, August 18, right through the end of the month, it’s all blown out. Strong cross-shore and cross-onshore winds from the west are wrecking the swell. The combined energy (177) is weak, and with a short period of 6 seconds, it’s just choppy and poor. The water temp is about normal for this time of year, but that doesn’t matter when the waves are junk.

There’s a tiny window on Friday, August 21. A morning session might see a light offshore breeze from the NNE, cleaning up a 4ft swell from the west. The period is a decent 9 seconds, so there’s a bit of shape. The combined energy (199) is still weak, but it’s the cleanest we get all week. If you’re keen, you could snag a few small, clean ones, but it’s not going to be a classic. The afternoon drops right off to 3ft.

After that, it’s back to the waiting game. The swell bottoms out completely – we’re talking 0.7ft to 2ft from the 22nd through the 24th. The Sunday morning of the 23rd is glassy, but with practically no swell. The energy is a paltry 33, so don’t even bother.

The first week of September brings a major change in energy, but not quality. A solid pulse of swell rolls in from August 31, building to a big 10ft by the afternoon, with combined energy (1042) getting strong. The problem? The wind is still cross-on, and the period is a short, junky 6 to 7 seconds. This is going to be a raw, powerful, and messy wall of white water. At over 8ft, this is strictly for experts who don’t mind a beating, and honestly, it looks more like a kite-surfing playground than a paddle surfer’s dream.

The one true standout, if you can call it that, comes on Wednesday, September 2. The morning shows an 8ft groundswell from the west, but with a period of 10 seconds, giving it some real grunt. The combined energy (1342) is strong. What makes it interesting is a clean, cross-offshore wind from the northwest. For a cove setup, that’s a rare and beautiful thing. The notes say "clean" – that’s the word we want to hear. At 8ft, it’s still a big day for Church Cove, and it’s only for experienced surfers, but if this long-range forecast holds, it could be the only worthwhile session of the entire outlook. Just keep in mind it’s over a week away, so don’t book the time off just yet.

So, to sum it up: a whole lot of blown-out, small, or oversized junk, with one promising but distant morning on September 2. Surf is scarce, so keep your expectations low.

Rusty.

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