Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna level with ya – the next 16 days at Church Cove are a tough pill to swallow. The whole forecast is a flat, wind-battered mess. There’s no surf worth paddling out for right now, and it’s gonna stay that way for a long stretch.

We’re looking at a solid gap of about 13 days before anything even starts to stir. From Monday the 13th of July, right through to the morning of Saturday the 25th, wave heights barely nudge past 2 ft, and the swell energy is embarrassingly weak. The combined energy of all swells directed here sits at a pathetic 15 to 73 (weak energy) for most of that period. Winds are mostly cross-off or cross, but with zero wave size, it’s just a glassy lake with a breeze. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real change comes on Saturday the 25th of July in the afternoon. We see a tiny bump to 2 ft from the SSW, but it’s accompanied by a risk of thunderstorms and strong onshore winds at 16 mph. The period is a miserable 4 seconds – that’s windswell junk. Then on Sunday the 26th, things get a bit more interesting but not for surfing. The swell jumps to 4 ft from the WSW, with a period of 6 seconds, and the combined energy climbs to 129 (moderate wave energy). But the wind is a fresh cross-shore at 19 mph, making it lumpy and choppy. By the afternoon, the swell hits 4 ft from the WNW, energy jumps to 260 (moderate wave energy), but the wind is a fresh cross-onshore at 22 mph. That setup is far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The big news comes on Monday the 27th of July. The swell arrives at 8 ft from the W, with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy explodes to 796 (strong wave energy). But that’s followed by a 10 ft swell from the W in the afternoon, with an energy reading of 1115 (very strong wave energy). The problem is, the wind is blowing a strong onshore at 25 mph. This is not a surfable wave – it’s a washing machine. Definitely only for experts, and even then, it’s ugly.

We wrap up on Tuesday the 28th of July with a 8 ft swell from the W, a period of 11 seconds, and the combined energy hits 1828 (very strong wave energy). The wind is a moderate cross-onshore at 16 mph, creating a choppy, lumpy mess. Again, this is big, powerful, and totally blown out.

So, the honest truth? There’s no standout option here. If you’re desperate, maybe the early morning of Thursday the 16th of July offers a moment of glassy calm, but the waves are only 0.7 ft. It’s a flat spell. The only real energy is late in the window, but it’s all onshore junk. I’d keep your board in the van and wait for a better forecast.

Rusty.

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