Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's on the menu for the next couple of weeks at Church Cove.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this is gonna be a tough stretch. The forecast is pretty grim, with a lot of wind and messy conditions. The water temperature is sitting at 65°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing your toes off.

We start off on Tuesday, the 25th of August. The morning has a fresh offshore breeze from the ENE, but the swell is tiny, just 2 ft from the west with a weak energy reading of 99. It's a poor surf day. That afternoon brings some rain showers and a cross-offshore wind, but the swell is still a measly 2 ft. Not worth paddling out.

Wednesday and Thursday are a write-off. The swell is small, the period is short, and the wind is all over the place – cross-on, cross, onshore, you name it. The energy is weak, barely cracking 130. On Thursday the wind is onshore from the SW at 16 mph with a 4 ft swell, but it's a short-period 6 seconds. It's just messy.

The first weekend into the following week doesn't get any better. Friday, the 28th, has a moderate cross-onshore wind and lumpy 5 ft swell. Saturday the 29th shows a bit more size, with 7 ft to 8 ft from the WSW, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore, keeping everything lumpy. The energy is moderate, hitting 498 and 576, but the quality just isn't there. Sunday the 30th sees a risk of thunderstorms and a strong onshore wind, with 7 ft of swell. Monday the 31st has a massive energy spike to 1609, but with a 22 mph cross-onshore wind and 8 ft of west swell, it's a lumpy, blown-out mess. That's expert territory, but the wind kills it.

The beginning of September is more of the same. Tuesday the 1st sees the swell peak at 12 ft from the WSW, with a strong breeze of 25 mph onshore. The energy is huge at 2352, but this is for kite surfers, not paddle surfers. Wednesday the 2nd is still onshore and messy at 7 ft. Thursday the 3rd drops a bit to 5 ft, but the wind is still onshore.

We then hit a gap of a few days with no real hope. Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th are all cross-onshore wind and lumpy, with the 5th seeing a return of 10 ft swell and a risk of thunderstorms. Sunday the 6th is the same story.

Now, here's the one slim glimmer of hope. On Monday, the 7th of September, the wind finally swings offshore from the NNE at 22 mph. The swell is 8 ft from the west, with a period of 10 seconds, and the energy is strong at 1668. It's a fresh offshore and clean setup. The wave comment says "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions," but this is the only window where the wind is right. The afternoon keeps it clean with a cross-offshore breeze, but the swell is 8 ft, which is borderline for experts only. Tuesday the 8th of September still has some marginal conditions, but the wind goes light and variable, and the swell drops to 5 ft.

Then we're back to the bad stuff. Wednesday the 9th of September brings a huge 10 ft swell from the WSW with a long 11-second period, but the wind is cross-onshore at 19 mph, making it a lumpy, blown-out beast. The energy is extreme at 2170, but again, it's a kite surfer's paradise, not for a clean paddle.

So, to be honest, the standout here is the morning of Monday, the 7th of September. It's the only time the wind is offshore and the swell is sizeable. It's a long way out, so take it with a grain of salt, but it's the best we've got. Everything else is a hard pass. Church Cove is inconsistent at the best of times, and this run of poor conditions is a real bummer. But that's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes.

Rusty.

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