Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the surf for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a rough patch, to be honest. We’ve got a long stretch of onshore and cross-shore winds messing with what little swell we have for the first few days. Then it goes super tiny. But hold on, there’s a serious pulse of energy forecast for the back half of next week that could turn things interesting, even if the wind is going to be the main character.

The first few days are a write-off. From Monday the 17th through Thursday the 20th, we’re looking at waves in the 3ft to 7ft range, but it’s all being chopped up by moderate to fresh WNW winds. The energy is weak to moderate (96-752), and the periods are short, mostly 6-8 seconds. It’s going to be lumpy and messy, more frustration than fun. This is not the time to be paddling out at Church Cove (Big Island). The water temp is about average for this time of year, but with the wind, you won’t notice.

Finally, on Friday the 21st, the wind drops right out. We get an early morning E light air, making it clean. The swell is still small, 3ft from the W with an 8 second period, so it’s weak energy (158). It’s surfable, but you’ll be working for the fun ones. It’s a small window of clean conditions, so if you’re desperate, that’s your chance.

Then the bottom falls out. From Saturday the 22nd through Tuesday the 26th morning, it’s tiny. We’re talking 0.5ft to 2ft waves with hardly any energy (27-74). There are some nice offshore winds in there, especially Sunday and Monday, but with that little swell, it’s not worth getting wet. This is a real lull, so go get your gear sorted.

But things are about to get wild. The afternoon of Wednesday the 26th sees a big jump in energy to 1005, with a 10ft swell from the WSW. Problem is, it’s coming with a 30 km/h cross-onshore and it’ll be lumpy as all get out. Then, Thursday the 27th is the standout, but only for the brave. The combined energy goes through the roof – 3508 in the morning and a massive 7412 in the afternoon. We’re talking 10ft to 12ft of W swell with a long 12-13 second period. This is serious groundswell. That long period will make it areal freight train at a spot like Church Cove, which is fairly exposed to SW but this is coming from the W. It might be breaking too straight, and with that fresh cross-onshore wind, it’s going to be a beast. This is only for experts. For most of us, it’s a spectator day.

After that, it settles down a bit. Friday the 28th and into the weekend, we see the swell drop back to 3ft-6ft, but the W winds stick around, keeping it lumpy. The energy fades too (124-592). We’re back to ordinary. The forecast for the first few days of September shows a couple of bigger pulses but with strong winds and rain in the mix, so it’s still not looking great. The longer-range stuff on the 31st and the 1st has some size (7ft-8ft) but the winds are onshore and strong. It’s promising in size but not in quality.

So, if you’re looking for that one true standout, it’s the 27th, but you better be on your A-game and have a board you don’t mind abusing. For everyone else, keep an eye on the forecast, because this blank run can’t last forever.

Rusty

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