Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your board and let’s talk about what’s shaking. This stretch is a bit of a mixed bag, honestly. We’ve got some swell rolling through, but the winds are going to be the real story, and for the most part, they’re not playing nice. The start of this run looks pretty grim, with more chop and cross-shore junk than clean, rideable surf. But don't write it off just yet, because there are a couple of moments tucked in there that could be worth the wait.

First things first, the water at Church Cove is sitting at 66°, which is just a touch warmer than average for this time of year. Not a big deal, but you might not need the thickest suit.

We're looking at a rough patch right out of the gate. Thursday the 20th has a solid 8ft to 8ft of west-northwest swell with a 9-second period, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy and messy. The energy is moderate to strong (868 and 1754), but it's just not going to be clean. The surf quality is poor, and it’s not worth paddling out into that. Friday and the weekend drop off in size, but the wind stays cross-off, keeping things clean but small. The swell is just too weak, with energy falling below 100. We're looking at a few days of nothing worthwhile.

The start of next week is more of the same, with tiny surf and clean conditions, but nothing to get excited about. The energy stays weak, with values in the 30s and 50s. You’d be better off finding something else to do. This gap of no-surf stretches on for days.

Then, things get a little more interesting. We start seeing some push of energy from the 26th onwards. There's a risk of thunderstorms and a lumpy 5ft to 6ft south-southwest swell, but the wind is on it, making it choppy. It's still not good. The 29th sees a big jump in size, with a 13ft west swell and energy hitting 2954, but it's accompanied by fresh cross-onshore winds. That's a big, stormy mess, not a surfing wave. That’s for the experts only, if anyone’s mad enough.

Now, here’s where I get a little more hopeful. The long-range stuff, well into the second week, starts to look a bit better. After that wild weekend, the winds ease off and turn offshore. There’s a period around the 2nd and 3rd of September where we get some clean conditions. The swell is still small, around 4ft, but the wind is lighter and cross-off. The energy is moderate (285). It's a promising sign, but it's a long way out. And then, on the 4th of September, the morning looks glassy with light offshore winds and a clean 3ft wave, though the energy is weak (79). It's not a classic, but after this long dry spell, any clean wave is a good wave.

So, the standout here, and I mean the only real standout, is that morning of Thursday, September 4th. It’s not big, but it’ll be clean, and with the wind going glassy, it might just be the most fun you’ll have all forecast. It’s far out, so don’t book your flights just yet, but keep an eye on it. Otherwise, this is a waiting game. The surf will be back.

Rusty.

Read more