Church Cove Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, crew, Rusty here. Let’s be real: the next fortnight is looking like a total bust for a proper surf. We’ve got a serious flat spell coming, so don’t get your hopes up for anything rideable for a while.

The water’s sitting at 67°F, which is way warmer than it should be this time of year – that’s the one good thing about a dead ocean.

Our first real sign of life doesn’t show up until the morning of the 20th. There’s a pulse of energy coming with the swell bumping up to 8ft from the WNW. Problem is, the wind is howling cross-shore at 19 mph, making it a lumpy mess. There’s a ton of energy out there (1653), but it’s not working for us. That morning is the only time we see a score of even 1/10, and it’s a marginal call at best.

After that little flash, it just dies again. We’re looking at a solid gap of flat, weak surf from the 21st through the 27th. The swell drops off a cliff, with most days seeing waves under 3ft. There are a few clean windows, especially the 22nd and 23rd with the lighter cross-off breeze, but there's just no size or power behind them to make it worth the paddle out. It’s the kind of lull where you might just want to wax up the log for some knee-high dribbles if you're desperate, but there's nothing here that gets the heart racing. The energy levels drop to double digits, a real sign of how weak things are.

All the while, we're dealing with winds that are mostly cross or cross-off, with a few days of proper strong breezes that'll just add to the mess. Even the clean, glassy morning on the 27th only has 1ft of swell. It's a real tease.

Now, things get a bit more interesting right at the end of the period. Saturday the 29th looks like the standout, with a solid 6ft of W swell rolling in. The period jumps up to 12 seconds, showing some real groundswell energy. However, the wind is still cross-shore, so expect some chop. This is one for the more experienced crew, as anything over 5ft is pushing it for beginners. The long period also means it might be breaking a bit straight on the beach, so you'll want to hunt for a bank.

The other glimmer of hope is Friday the 28th. The swell is a touch smaller at 6-7ft from the WSW, and the early light winds could make for some slightly cleaner conditions before the onshores pick up. It’s not perfect, but it’s something.

Beyond that, Sunday the 30th turns ugly fast. A strong WSW wind is forecast to howl at up to 31 mph, and with that much wind and swell, the setup just looks more interesting for the kite surfers than anyone on a paddleboard.

So, bottom line: the only real day to get excited about is that Saturday the 29th. It's the one with the most size and period, even if the winds aren't ideal. Everything else for the next two weeks is a write-off unless you're just stoked to be in the water. Don't get your hopes up too high for the end of the forecast, though – it's promising, but we have a long way to go for a clean day.

Rusty, out.

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