Carmel Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, it's Rusty here. I've been staring at the charts for Carmel Beach and, well, I'm not gonna sugar-coat it. This 16-day window looks pretty grim for a proper paddle. The whole run is plagued by cross-onshore winds, mostly from the NNW and NW, which is going to keep things messy.

Let's start with what we have. The water temp is sitting at 61°F with a 1°F anomaly, so it's about average for this time of year. Right now, through the start of the period, we've got a 3ft SSW groundswell with a very long 16-second period. That's a beautiful period for a point break, but here at Carmel Beach, a sandbar setup, that long period can make the waves break too straight and close out. The combined swell energy is moderate at 482. The problem is that wind. It's a light cross-onshore breeze at 6 mph, which is enough to put small wind ripples on the face and turn it into a bit of a wonky, poor surf situation.

Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th are more of the same: a long-period SSW swell, but the wind stays cross-onshore, giving us 3ft of messy, poor surf. The energy is moderate (428 and 389) but the quality is just not there. We get a small reprieve on Monday morning with a light cross-shore wind, but the forecast still calls it "marginal." It's a one-star window, but it's still not enough to get excited about.

As we move into the middle of the week, the swell direction shifts to the WNW and NW on the 20th and 21st, but the period drops to a short, weak 6-8 seconds. The height bumps up to around 4ft to 5ft, but with that short period and moderate cross-onshore winds, it's basically just choppy, wind-blown slop. The energy is moderate (506-567) but it's all noise. This is the kind of setup that looks more interesting for kite surfing than a proper paddle.

The second week is a real desert. From the 22nd of August all the way through the 30th, the pattern is relentless: small swell, poor surf conditions, and that persistent cross-onshore wind. The swell heights barely break 4ft, and when they do, the period is either too short or the wind is too strong. For example, on the 27th, we finally see a bump in energy. The combined energy jumps to 1316 (strong) on Thursday morning and 1269 (strong) on Thursday afternoon, with a 4ft S swell at 14 seconds. That's a lot of energy, but the wind is still a cross-onshore 9 mph from the NW. The forecast calls it "marginal" at best, scoring a 1 and a 2. It's a classic case of a lot of energy getting totally ruined by the wind. There's simply no standout period in this entire 16-day outlook. The consistency is there, but the quality is absent.

So, honestly, I'd give this one a miss. It's a long stretch of poor conditions. For a spot that's "very consistent," it's a real bummer. But forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it. This is Rusty, signing off.

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