Carmel Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me tell you how it’s looking for Carmel Beach. I won’t sugarcoat it – the start of this run is a bit of a grind. There’s a gap right now because there’s no decent surf on offer immediately. The first real chance to paddle out kicks off on Thursday morning, July 16th.

Overall, the pattern is a long stretch of tricky conditions. For the first week, from July 16th right through to the 22nd, you’re dealing with a persistent cross-onshore wind and mostly small, weak swell. The water temp is nothing special either, pretty average for this time of year, so don’t expect any surprises.

The only time the energy really picks up is around Sunday afternoon, July 19th, when we see a jump in the combined swell energy (1061). It’s still got that cross-onshore breeze though, so surf quality is marginal at best. You’d be looking at waist to chest-high sets (4 ft) from the S, but the 15-second period means it’ll have some push. It’s not a standout, but if you’re jonesing, that Sunday arvo is your best bet this side of the first week.

Then there’s a real lull from Monday, July 20th, through to Friday, July 24th. Tiny waves, light cross-onshore winds, and very weak energy readings (between 236 and 803). It’s frustrating – a classic summer flat spell for the area.

Things do get a little more interesting in the second week. On Friday, July 24th, the afternoon brings a spike in energy (1246) with 4 ft swell from the S, period of 15 seconds. The wind is lighter then. Then on Saturday, July 25th, the combined energy goes strong (1789) – that’s the most powerful swell of the whole outlook. But look, it’s a cross-onshore breeze still, and that swell is 5 ft from the S with a very long 21-second period. For a sandbar break like Carmel, that long period groundswell might make it break too straight. It’s promising, but not a clean, easy day.

Later, on Tuesday, July 28th, there’s a pulse of 7 ft from the NW (1760 energy), but that’s getting solid. That’s expert territory, and with a short period of 10 seconds and cross-onshore wind, it’s going to be a messy, bumpy affair.

Honestly, nothing here is a true epic standout. If I had to point you to the best of what’s on offer, it’s Sunday, July 19th afternoon for the most user-friendly size and a bit of period, or Friday, July 24th afternoon for the lighter wind window. But keep your expectations in check – it’s not firing.

Rusty.

Read more