Carmel Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what Carmel Beach has got cookin' for us over the next couple of weeks. Truth be told, it’s a bit of a mixed bag, and we’re not looking at anything epic right out of the gate. The first few days are gonna be a struggle, but there might be a couple of windows where it cleans up enough to get wet.

The water temp is sitting at 60°, which is pretty much dead average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We start off with Friday the 11th. It's small, with a 3 ft SW swell pushing through, but it’s got some decent energy behind it (667). Problem is, the wind is straight out of the WNW, keeping it a bit scratchy. It’s not a complete write-off, but it’s definitely a “check the tide and maybe go for a walk” kinda session.

Saturday the 12th and Sunday the 13th? Honestly, forget about it. The wind is up, the swell gets lumpy and weak, and the quality tanks. We’ve got a solid three or four days of poor conditions here. The swell picks up to 6 ft by Sunday afternoon, but it’s a short-period NW windswell with a fresh onshore breeze. That’s not paddle-surfing weather; that setup with that much wind and chop is more interesting for kite surfing than anything with a paddle in your hand.

Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th are better in size, with waves around 5 ft to 6 ft from the WNW. The wind is still not ideal, keeping a crinkle on the face, and the period is short (8-9 seconds). The wave energy is moderate (around 600). It’s a little bit fat and sectiony, honestly. The only day that might be worth a look is Tuesday afternoon, where we see a brief moment of offshore wind, but it only lasts for that one frame and the period is short. It’s a very brief window.

We get a few more marginal days through the middle of the week, with the swell dropping back down. The biggest thing to note is a long-period groundswell arriving around Friday the 18th. The period gets up to a juicy 19 seconds, but the size is tiny, only 2 ft. That long-period energy (386) is a bit of a tease. It’s the kind of swell that will look way better than it actually is at a point break or a reef, but at a beach break like Carmel, it might just line up and break too straight to give you much of a ride. The winds stay cross or cross-on, so it won’t be silky.

The second week is pretty quiet overall. We see a slight bump again around Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th, with the swell trying to build back to 5 ft-6 ft from the WNW. The window on Wednesday afternoon looks the pick of a bad bunch: some clouds, light winds from the WNW, and a 6 ft swell with moderate energy (732). It’s just cross-onshore, but the light breeze might keep it from getting too blown out.

Honestly, the standout window is that Wednesday the 23rd afternoon if you’re desperate, but there’s nothing here that screams “go now.” The crowds are *sometimes* an issue at Carmel Beach, so you won't be completely alone. It’s a fairly consistent spot, but this forecast is a real test of patience.

Rusty.

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