Carmel Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, this is Rusty. Let's be straight with you – this isn't exactly a premium run of surf for Carmel Beach. The whole 16-day outlook is a bit of a struggle, with only a few fleeting moments that might get you in the water. We're looking at a long stretch of small, messy swell and persistent cross-onshore winds that just won't give us a break.

Right now, water temp is sitting at a comfortable 60°F, which is bang on average for this time of year.

The first few days from Tuesday the 25th through to early next week are pretty much a write-off. Swell heights are tiny, mostly between 2ft and 2ft, coming from the SW with a long period of 16 seconds, but the wind is a steady cross-on from the NNW or NW at 9 to 12 mph. That makes for choppy, bumpy conditions. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate (384 on Tuesday, dropping to 268 in the arvo, then hovering around 254-244 on Wednesday). The system is calling it “poor surf conditions” – I'd call it a flat, blown-out mess.

Thursday the 27th sees a slight bump in size with a NW swell pushing 4ft in the morning and 6ft in the afternoon, but the period is a short, weak 7 seconds, and it's still cross-on at 9-12 mph. The energy climbs to 482 in the arvo, but it's poor quality – more of a wash cycle than a surf session.

Friday the 28th offers a glimmer. Swell drops back to 2ft to 3ft, but the period jumps to 17-19 seconds, a proper long-period groundswell from the SSW. The energy is moderate (558 in the morning, 701 in the arvo) and the wind eases to a light breeze from the N to NW. The catch? It's still a cross-shore to cross-on breeze, and the forecast calls it “marginal” at best. For a patient surfer on a longboard, this might be the best bet in the first week, but don't expect any standouts.

From Saturday the 29th right through to Tuesday the 1st of September, it's back to the same tired pattern: small SW swell (2ft to 4ft), long periods of 13-18 seconds, but relentless cross-on winds at 9-12 mph. The energy slowly fades from 825 down to 199. It's just not happening.

The second week (from Wednesday the 2nd of September onward) offers a slight improvement, but it's still marginal. The swell remains small (2ft to 3ft) with periods ranging from 12 to 19 seconds, mostly from the SW or SSW. Winds start to ease, with some light breezes around 6 mph, and we even see a couple of offshore or onshore spells on Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th. The energy is moderate (451 to 790). The best-looking window is Sunday the 6th morning, with a light cross-on breeze, 3ft of SSW swell at 15 seconds, and a score that suggests it's worth a look. By Monday the 7th, a NW swell of 5ft pushes in, but the period drops to 9 seconds and the wind is cross-on again – not great. Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th continue the marginal trend, with small NW and SW swell and light onshore winds.

Honestly, there's no day that really stands out as a true standout. If I had to pick the best of a weak bunch, I'd say Friday the 28th morning or Sunday the 6th morning offer the cleanest conditions, but even then, you're looking at small, inconsistent waves. For beginners, the small size (under 3ft) is fine, but the constant chop and poor shape won't be fun. This is a stretch where you might be better off checking the forecast again in a few days – things can change.

Rusty.

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