Carmel Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into what’s happening for Carmel Beach over the next couple of weeks.

First off, the water temperature is about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there. The sandbar setup here is super consistent, which is a good thing, but we’ve got a tough run ahead for the next few days.

Right now, Friday morning, we’re lookin’ at a 6ft NW swell, but it’s coming in with a cross-onshore wind at 12 mph. That’s makin’ it choppy and messy. The combined energy is moderate (819), but the conditions are just poor. This continues through Friday afternoon and into Saturday morning, where the swell drops to 3ft but the wind stays cross-onshore. Saturday afternoon and Sunday actually see the wind turning light and onshore or cross-on, with a 5ft NW swell on Sunday, but it’s still marginal at best. The whole first week is a bit of a battle with this NW wind pattern.

The real story here is the long-range stuff. Look at Thursday, July 16th – we’ve got a 7ft NW swell rollin’ in. That’s a solid size, but again, it’s cross-onshore at 12 mph, so it’s gonna be choppy and tricky. The combined energy is strong (1108), but the wind is the spoiler. For experts only at that size, and even then, it’s not clean.

The best window? Honestly, it’s a tough call. The standout moment is on Friday, July 24th and Saturday, July 25th. Friday morning sees a 5ft NW swell with a light onshore wind (3 mph) – nearly glassy. That’s your best chance for clean, rideable waves. The energy is moderate (477) but it’s the wind that makes it. Friday afternoon builds to 7ft NW, still light wind, and Saturday morning holds 7ft WNW with a light cross-on breeze. That’s the pick of the bunch – a bit of size, clean conditions, and the swell direction matches the optimum W. Expect crowds, because this is a beginner-friendly spot that’s very consistent, so everyone will be out.

Before that, there’s a long gap of poor to marginal surf from now until July 24th. The 17th to the 23rd is a write-off with small, weak swells and cross-onshore winds. Don’t bother.

So, to sum it up: the next week is a scratch. Wait for the 24th and 25th – that’s your window for clean, fun waves. The long period swells (15-17 seconds) in the second week are better for points and reefs, but at a sandbar like this, they’ll break a bit straight. Still, with light wind, you’ll get some good ones.

Rusty.

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