Carmel Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for Carmel Beach over the next couple of weeks. I’ve got to be straight with you—this stretch is looking like a bit of a bummer for paddling out. The wind is stuck in a nasty cross-onshore pattern from the northwest for almost the entire forecast period, and that’s keeping the surface choppy and messy. The swell energy is there, ranging from moderate to strong (check the numbers: 368 to 782), but the conditions just aren’t lining up for decent surf. Water temp is sitting at about 60°F right now, which is pretty normal for this time of year—no weird anomalies to worry about.

Let’s run through it. Starting Tuesday, 18 August, through to the end of the month, it’s all cross-onshore winds. Swell sizes are mostly under 3 ft from the SSW or WNW, with a period over 15 seconds—long-period groundswell—but the wind just ruins it. For a beach break like Carmel Beach, that long period can make waves break a bit too straight, and with the chop, it’s not doing anyone any favors. The energy is moderate, but the “poor surf conditions” label pops up on almost every morning and afternoon. I see a couple of mornings, like Thursday 20 August, where the swell jumps to a WNW direction with 11-second period and 3 ft, and the energy is up at 540, but again—cross-onshore.

Things tick up a bit toward the end of the month. Around Saturday 29 August afternoon, we get a WNW swell of 6 ft with 8-second period—short period, so not a lot of shape—and energy hits 782, strong stuff. But the wind is still cross-onshore, 12 mph from the NW. Sunday 30 August morning has the same 6 ft with 8 seconds, energy of 724, and a cross-onshore NW wind at 12 mph. 6 ft is getting into intermediate-to-expert territory, but the chop and short period make it a hard sell. On 2 September Wednesday afternoon, we see 5 ft with 8-second period, energy 537, but wind is cross-onshore from the WNW at 12 mph—still messy.

Because of the persistent cross-onshore wind and the beach break setup, this whole window looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The only standout might be if you’re desperate for a session—look at Tuesday 1 September morning: 4 ft, 9-second period WNW, with moderate energy of 398. But even then, it’s cross-onshore. There’s no glass-out here, no offshore window, no hidden gem.

So, what’s the best on offer? Honestly, nothing screams “go.” If I had to pick one, maybe the Saturday 29 August afternoon with 6 ft WNW swell and that high energy (782) could give you some grunt, but be ready for choppy, wind-affected faces. Not a day for beginners. The long gap of poor conditions stretches from now through the end of the forecast, with only a couple of marginal spots where the rating is 1/10, like Wednesday 19 August afternoon. It’s a tough call, but forecasts can change—don’t lose hope.

Rusty.

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