Carmel Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what we’ve got coming up at Carmel Beach.

It’s a pretty flat and uninspiring stretch ahead, I’ve gotta be honest. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a bust for quality waves. The first few days are a write-off because of messy, choppy conditions and the swell just isn’t cooperating. We’re looking at a long gap with nothing worth paddling out for until well into the first week of August.

We start off on Tuesday the 28th of July with some waist-high, 3ft south-southwest swell, but that’s got a 17-second period on it – a proper long-period groundswell. Problem is, the wind is a persistent cross-onshore from the northwest at 12 mph, just tearing it up. The water temp is around 59°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The combined energy is solid, hitting 798 (moderate), but the surface is too chopped up to enjoy. This pattern just drags on through Wednesday and into Thursday, with the wind never giving us a break. The swell bumps up a bit to 6ft on Thursday, but the period drops right off to 8 seconds – that’s a weak, short-period windswell, and with the same cross-onshore breeze, it’s just a messy, choppy mess.

Friday the 31st and into the weekend is more of the same. The swell stays around 5ft to 6ft, but the period is short and the wind is our enemy. Saturday, August 1st, sees 6ft from the northwest, combined energy at 824, but it’s still cross-onshore and chopped. Not a single standout session here, folks. The energy levels get up into the 1000+ range on Sunday the 2nd (1155 combined energy for a 8ft swell at 10 seconds), which is strong, but again—choppy and messy. This would be more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing if it keeps up like this.

It’s not until Monday the 3rd of August that the wind eases a little, with a lighter 6 mph breeze from the west-northwest. The swell is 7ft at 10 seconds, and the wind is just onshore but light. It’s still not clean, but it’s the least bad we’ve seen. The scores are still marginal, though. Tuesday the 4th drops back to 6ft and then 5ft, still with onshore wind. Wednesday the 5th and Thursday the 6th are small and weak – 4ft to 4ft with periods around 8 to 10 seconds and more onshore wind. There just isn’t a single day where it all lines up.

We finish the run on Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th of August. The swell is tiny, 2ft to 3ft, with long periods around 15 to 20 seconds, but the wind stays cross-onshore or onshore. The energy is moderate (408 to 755) but it’s too small and messy to get excited about. There are no real highlights here. Keep your hopes low and your expectations lower.

Trust me, if something changes, I’ll be the first to tell you. But for now, it’s a blank run.

- Rusty

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