Carmel Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break this down in feet and miles per hour.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch. We’re looking at a long, dry spell with hardly anything worth paddling out for. The first real chance of anything rideable doesn’t show up until the 9th of July, and even then, it’s not pretty. The water temp is around 58°F at Carmel Beach, which is pretty much what you’d expect for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.

The whole first week is a write-off. From the 4th through the 8th, we’ve got tiny swell, mostly around 2ft to 3ft, and the wind is either onshore or cross-onshore, chopping everything up. The combined energy is weak to moderate (360 to 925), but the quality is just not there. You’d be wasting your time.

Things get a little more interesting around the 9th and 10th of July, but don’t get too excited. The swell bumps up to 7ft on the 9th, coming from the NW with a short period of 9 seconds. That’s a lot of water moving, but the wind is cross-onshore at 12 mph, making it a choppy mess. The combined energy is strong (1090 to 1168), but the quality is poor. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session. For the experienced crew, there might be a few heavy, lumpy ones, but beginners should stay well clear – that’s too much size and chop.

The 10th of July drops back to around 6ft, still short period, and the wind is a bit better on the afternoon with an onshore flow, but it’s still marginal at best. The 11th and 12th see the swell drop right back down to around 3ft, and the wind stays messy.

The second week is a bit of a mixed bag, but nothing screams "go time." Around the 13th and 14th of July, we get another pulse of 6ft to 7ft swell from the WNW, but the period is short (8 seconds), and the wind is cross-onshore or onshore. The energy is moderate to strong (502 to 783), but the conditions are just too choppy for a good time. The 15th of July is probably the best of a bad bunch – 5ft from the NW, light cross-onshore breeze, and the only score that hits a 2 in the whole run. It’s not a standout, it’s just the least bad.

After that, the 16th through the 19th sees the swell drop back to 3ft to 3ft, with long periods (16 to 19 seconds) from the WNW. That long period means the waves will have some shape, but the cross-onshore wind is going to mess up the surface. The energy is moderate to strong (559 to 887), but the conditions are just not clean enough to make it a good call.

Honestly, if you’re desperate, the 15th of July is your best bet – 5ft from the NW, light cross-onshore breeze, and the only score that hits a 2 in the whole run. It’s not a standout, it’s just the least bad. For the rest, you’re better off waiting for a better forecast. This is one of those stretches where the ocean just isn’t cooperating.

Rusty.

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