Carmel Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it—this next fortnight and a bit is a tough stretch for Carmel Beach. The pattern is pretty grim with onshore or cross-onshore wind nearly the entire time, which means most of the swell is gonna be chopped up and messy. There’s a lot of poor surf conditions flagged, so if you’re not desperate, you might want to give it a miss for now.

Right now, Wednesday morning the 22nd is up first with a small 3ft SSW swell, long period of 15 seconds, and a moderate wave energy (568). The wind’s onshore from the west at 9 mph, which is actually offshore for this break, and that’s a positive, but it’s only “marginal” with questionable tide conditions. You’d be scraping for something rideable. Come Wednesday arvo and the rest of the week, it’s all cross-onshore wind, choppy, and the swell stays small—2ft to 3ft—and those scores are flat zeros. Not worth paddling out.

Saturday morning the 25th sees a little spike: 3ft SSW swell, very long period of 21 seconds, and slightly stronger energy (1029). But again, cross-onshore NW wind at 12 mph kills it. That’s a “marginal” call too. The long period means the set gaps are big, but with the wind, it’s not going to shape up cleanly here at this beach break.

The end of July into early August brings some bigger swell—5ft to 6ft from the NW and WNW—but the period drops short, like 8 to 9 seconds, and the wind is still cross-onshore. That’s a choppy, short-period mess at 6ft on a beach break. Honestly, that setup looks way more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. For beginners, anything over 5ft is already too big, and with the conditions, steer clear. For experts, it’s not the clean power you’d want.

There’s a small window around Thursday morning, 6th August, where the wind might turn onshore (WNW at 6 mph) and the swell goes to 3ft from the south with a long 15-second period. Energy is moderate (551). That’s a “marginal” call too—still not great, but the glassy-ish wind could make it the least bad of the bunch. Not a standout by any stretch.

Overall, don’t get your hopes up. The wave energy bounces around from weak to moderate (173 to 1179), but the wind is the killer. There are long gaps of days with no real recommendations. Thursday morning 6th August is probably your best bet, but it’s still a gamble. For a spot that’s usually very consistent, this run is a rare dud. But forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it.

Stay frothy,
Rusty

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