Carmel Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. Rusty here. We've got a couple weeks of ocean ahead of us, and it's a bit of a story. Starts off flat and messy, then a window opens up, and closes again. Let's break it down.

The first part of the week is a write-off. From the 3rd through the 8th, you're looking at weak, small surf with bumpy conditions. That onshore wind is going to have things chopped up. The wave energy is weak, in the low hundreds, and it's just not worth suiting up for. You'd be fighting for scraps.

Our first real chance comes on Sunday, the 9th. Swell bumps up to around 6ft, and the energy gets into the mid-800s. But, the wind is still not our friend, coming cross-onshore and making things lumpy. It's a better than nothing situation, but the afternoon is only marginally cleaner. Then Monday the 10th, the swell is similar, around 6ft, but the wind eases. That gives us a better shot at a few clean ones, especially later in the day.

The standout part of this whole run looks to be Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th. We're looking at solid 7ft surf with moderate energy building to almost 950. The wind on Tuesday morning is forecast to be light and offshore, which is what we want to hear. That's when Carmel Beach is going to have some real shape. It's a sandbar, so it can be fickle, but with that 7ft of west-northwest swell and a 9-second period, there should be some fun waves. This spot is usually forgiving, but at this size, the more experienced crew will be rewarded. It might get a bit crowded, so paddle out early.

Then it gets messy again. From the 13th and 14th, the wind shifts and makes things poor. Following that, on the 15th and 16th, we get a very long period swell (16 seconds), but from the south-southwest, which is all wrong for this break. The size drops right off, so those long period lines won't have any push. Not worth the paddle.

For the final days, the 17th and 18th, the models show a bigger swell, around 7ft, but the period drops to a short 8 seconds. That's a key detail. Short period swell at a beach break is going to be a mess, with waves closing out. The energy will be strong, but the quality will be low. The morning of the 17th has a little bit of offshore wind, which might give it a chance, but it's a gamble at this point.

So, here's the plan: don't bother this week. Your best days are the 11th and 12th, with Tuesday the 11th looking the cleanest. The long-range forecast has size, but it's too messy to call. This pattern is frustrating, but there are waves out there if you're willing to chase them.

Rusty, signing off.

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