Carmel Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into what’s coming up for Carmel Beach. The next sixteen days, mate, you’re gonna be working for it if you want a wave worth paddling for. There’s no real magic on the horizon right now – the wind is the main culprit, blowing cross-onshore nearly every day, and that’s keeping things messy.

We kick off Friday the 21st of August, and honestly, it’s a write-off. The swell is small, around 3 ft from the WNW, with a period of 11 seconds, but that NW wind at 12 mph has the place chopped up. Water temp is sitting at 61°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – just over a degree above average, so not a shock to the system.

Saturday the 22nd and Sunday the 23rd are much the same – tiny, weak, and bumpy. The most energy you’ll see over the weekend is about a moderate combined energy (289–293) on offer behind that messy wind. Periods start to vary – we get a long, sweet 19-second groundswell on Sunday morning from the SW, but it’s only 1 ft, so it’s not doing anything.

From Monday the 24th through to Wednesday evening on the 26th, the combined energy climbs into the three-digit range (359–711), but the wind stays cross-onshore, ruining any chance of clean lines. Still, late afternoon Wednesday the 26th gets a marginal nod – 3 ft from the S, 14-second period, gentle breeze – but it’s “marginal surf or questionable tide,” so don’t get excited.

Now, let me speak about the standouts, because there are two that are worth circling. Thursday the 27th of August starts to look a tad more interesting – odd afternoon gets a marginal rating (1 out of 10), with a 3 ft S swell at 13 seconds, combined energy of 555 – moderate, not huge – and the wind is still cross-onshore but very light. That’s the closest we get to clean, but it’s still far from perfect.

The other date to keep an eye on is Saturday the 29th of August. Morning has a 3 ft S swell, 18-second period – that’s a groundswell, and a long one at that – and combined energy jumps to a strong 1122. The downside: cross-onshore wind at 12 mph and choppy conditions. The afternoon sees 6 ft from the NW, but period drops to 8 seconds and it’s poor. With that setup, especially the afternoon, this looks more like a kite session than a paddle surfer’s dream.

From Sunday the 30th through to Tuesday the 1st of September, the swell gets bigger – up to 7 ft – but the wind stays cross-onshore and the period is short or mixed. Over 5 ft here with poor surf quality? That’s strictly for confident surfers or kite folks.

Then Wednesday the 2nd of September is the first time we get actual onshore wind flipping to light and onshore – that’s an improvement in consistency. We get a marginal rating (2 out of 10) on Wednesday morning: 5 ft from the NW, 9-second period, combined energy 738 – still moderate, but with that light WSW wind being onshore, it might actually be rideable. It’s not clean, but it’s the closest to decent we’ve seen in days.

Thursday the 3rd of September morning – 2 ft S swell, but the period is 19 seconds again, and light WNW onshore wind. That’s a tiny groundswell that would suit a point break, but this is a beach break. It’ll break straight and be hard to catch.

Friday the 4th sees the wind pick up again – 16 mph from the SW – and that’s it: game over for quality.

Overall, the first week is flat and messy, the second week has some pulse but the wind never fully clears up. If you are a true local who doesn’t mind choppy, onshore slop, you might get a wave, but there’s no standout session here, none of that glassy perfection we all crave. Keep your expectations low and your wetsuit zipped.

Rusty.

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