Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and sit down, because I’ve looked at the charts for our area and, to be honest, it’s a tough stretch for most of the next 16 days. The surf is going to be pretty grim for a long spell.

We start with the first real shot of anything surfable coming way late in the run. From now until the 13th of August, it’s a write-off. Cross-shore winds and weak, short-period swell just won’t produce anything worth paddling out for.

The first glimmer of hope arrives on Friday the 14th of August. Baldwin Beach Park (reef and point) will see a big jump in swell energy. The morning brings a powerful 10ft swell from the ENE, with a long 14-second period. The combined energy is a massive 2933 (moderate energy) and it builds further into the afternoon, with the swell hitting 12ft from the East. The period stays long at 14 seconds, giving the waves serious shape and punch. The water temp is sitting at 80°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The issue? The wind is a fresh cross-shore from the ENE, which will make conditions lumpy. For experienced surfers who can handle a bit of chop, this Friday afternoon could offer some solid, powerful lines. It’s not for beginners, though – 12ft is big. The point setup here will help channel that long-period energy, but the wind will keep it from being perfect. Crowds are likely, so get in early.

Saturday the 15th of August is a no-go. The swell gets huge, with 21ft on the cards in the morning and strong cross-shore winds. That’s expert-only, and honestly, with those winds, it’s probably more of a kite-surfing scene than a paddle session.

The real standout, if you can wait, is Sunday the 16th of August. The swell drops to a much more manageable 8ft from the East, with a 9-second period. The combined energy is 1954 (moderate energy), but the big news is the wind. We get a clean, cross-offshore breeze from the SE. That means smooth, groomed waves. For a reef and point break like Baldwin, that’s the best wind direction. It will be clean, hollow, and a lot of fun for intermediate to advanced surfers. This is the best session of the entire 16-day period by a mile. Just be aware that with those conditions, the crowds will likely be heavy.

After that brief highlight, it gets sloppy again. From the 17th of August onward, we’re back to messy, cross-shore winds and weak, short-period swell. The energy drops below 400, and the forecast just doesn’t have any other magic windows. The end of the run on the 23rd of August looks the same – small and choppy.

So, to sum it up: don’t bother until the 14th, and even then, Friday is for the brave and the big-wave crew. Circle Sunday the 16th on your calendar – that’s your best chance for clean, lined-up waves. The rest is a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more