Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, it's Rusty. Let's be straight with you – this outlook for Baldwin Beach Park is a tough one. We're looking at a long stretch ahead, and the honest truth is there's nothing here to get excited about for a proper surf.

Right now and for the next week and a half, the pattern is just no good. From Monday 31 August right through to at least Monday 14 September, every session is either marked as poor or marginal, and that's being generous. The water's sitting at a warm 80°, which is pretty much normal for the time of year, but that's the only thing that's average here.

The first real sniff of anything comes on Friday 4 September afternoon, when a long-period groundswell shows up – 7 ft from the ENE with a period of 13 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1325 (strong to very strong wave energy). But here's the kicker: the wind is cross-shore at 16 mph with a lumpy cross-chop. It's only a "marginal" rating and honestly, it's not worth the paddle for how messy it'll look. Saturday 5 September morning is similar, with 7 ft at 13 seconds and cross-shore wind at 12 mph. Again, marginal. That long period (over 11 seconds) means the swell will have power, but at a beach-reef-point setup like this, a 13-second interval can make it break too straight, and with that cross-breeze, shape is going to be average.

Into Saturday 6 September morning, we get 7 ft ENE swell at 13 seconds, combined energy of 1576 (very strong), but wind swings back to cross-onshore at 12 mph, and it's "poor." Not the one.

Monday 7 September brings a brief window of hope: a morning with a risk of thunderstorms and a light 9 mph offshore wind from the NNE. Swell is 8 ft from the ENE, period 11 seconds, combined energy of 1259. That offshore breeze is a big positive – it'll clean things up. But the score is still only "marginal" and it's a risk tstm situation. That afternoon shifts to WNW 9 mph cross-shore with 7 ft NE swell – still marginal. That morning is probably the best of a bad bunch, but I can't call it a standout with confidence.

After that, from 8 September onward, it's all downhill. Swell drops below 3 ft by 14 September and the wind stays cross or cross-on. There's a notable gap from about 8 September to the end of the outlook where nothing is recommendable.

If I had to pick one moment, it's that Monday 7 September morning. Offshore wind, 8 ft ENE swell, decent period – but it's a gamble with the thunderstorms and only a marginal call. For experts only at that size (over 7 ft), and the crowd factor at Baldwin Beach Park is marked as "often," so you won't be alone if you gamble it.

This stretch is a blank run, plain and simple. For the area, it's not unusual to see a quiet spell like this, and forecasts can flip, but right now I'd say save your energy.

Rusty.

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