Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's coming down the line.

Straight up, I'm not gonna sugarcoat it: the first couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. We've got a long stretch of poor surf conditions from now all the way through to the 25th of July. The wind is mostly cross or cross-onshore, the swell is short-period, and the energy is just not there. You'll see a lot of "poor surf conditions" in the notes, and that's exactly what it is. The combined swell energy is consistently weak, mostly in the 100-300 range, which is just not enough to get excited about. Don't bother waxing up for that period unless you're desperate for a paddle and a chop.

The real glimmer of hope, and the standout here, is the window around the 27th and 28th of July. We finally see a shift. The swell direction comes around to the east, and the period jumps up to 12-15 seconds. That's a proper groundswell. The combined energy climbs into the 650-1100 range, which is moderate to strong, and that's what we've been waiting for. The catch is the wind is still cross-on from the ENE, so it won't be glassy, but it's light, so the surface will be a lot cleaner than what we've been dealing with.

The best bet on offer is Baldwin Beach Park on the morning of July 28th. You're looking at a 6 ft swell from the east with a 12-second period. That's a solid, fun size for a point and reef setup, and it's very consistent here. The water temp is sitting at 79°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The energy is strong (1019), and while the wind is a light cross, it's much better than the 15 mph trash we've had. This is the one to aim for. The afternoon on the 28th pushes 6 ft, but the wind gets a little more cross-on, so the morning is the cleaner pick.

To be honest, the 27th is also a shout, but the swell is a bit smaller and the period is very long (15 seconds). That long period groundswell can make a beach break close out, but at a reef and point like Baldwin, it should handle it fine. Just expect longer waits between sets.

So, to sum it up: suffer through the next two weeks of chop, or save your energy for that last weekend of July. The 28th is the one to circle on the calendar. Don't blow it out.

- Rusty

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