Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey, Rusty here. Let’s be honest – the next couple of weeks at Baldwin Beach Park are looking tough. It’s the only spot we’ve got on the list, and this reef-and-point break is usually consistent, but the weather and swell just aren’t cooperating for a good paddle.

For the first week, starting Tuesday the 21st, it’s a real mess. Light rain, a weak 4ft swell from the east-northeast with a short 7-second period, and a moderate cross-shore wind blowing at 12 mph. The combined wave energy is a paltry 178. The water is warm at 80°, which is about normal for this time of year. Honestly, it’s just poor surf – not worth dragging the board out.

Wednesday and Thursday are more of the same. The swell gets a little bigger, but it’s still short-period and choppy. Winds stay cross-shore and moderate. On Wednesday afternoon the 22nd, the period stretches to 12 seconds and combined energy hits 586 – that’s moderate – but the swell is only 5ft with a cross-shore wind, and the conditions are only marginal. Friday and Saturday the 24th and 25th? Same story: poor surf, cross-shore wind, short-period junk.

Now, Sunday the 26th offers a glimmer of hope, but you’ve gotta be smart. The swell drops a bit to 4ft, but the period shoots up to a very long 16 seconds from the east. The combined wave energy jumps to a strong 1122. That is serious power for a small-looking wave. This is a proper groundswell, and Baldwin being a reef and point is the right place for it. The wind is a moderate cross-shore at 16 mph, and conditions are still marginal. Morning is your best bet before it gets choppy in the afternoon. If you’re experienced and you get out early, you might grab some clean lines, but it’s not a sure thing.

The long-period energy sticks around Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th, with combined energy still over 1300 and 1200 – very strong. The wind eases to a gentle cross-onshore on Monday and a light cross-onshore Tuesday morning. The swell holds at about 6ft to 6ft from the east with 13 to 14-second periods. But it’s all cross-onshore or onshore, so it’s going to be bumpy. And the direction isn’t ideal – Baldwin likes north-northeast swell, not east.

After that, the energy fades. Wednesday the 29th still has moderate energy, but the swell is dropping and the period shortening, with the wind staying cross-onshore. By Thursday the 30th, we’re back to weak conditions.

There’s a quiet stretch until Sunday the 2nd of August. That morning, the swell picks back up to 7ft from the east-northeast with a 9-second period and combined energy of 739 – moderate. The wind is a moderate cross-shore, so it’s not awful, but the short period means a bumpy, crumbly wave. Not a standout.

If I had to pick one window, it’s Sunday morning the 26th. That very long-period groundswell will have real punch, and with a bit of luck on the wind, you might get a few good ones. The rest of the fortnight? Pretty much a bust for clean, quality waves at Baldwin.

Keep the wax on standby, but don’t hold your breath. Rusty out.

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