Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I've got a look at what's on the cards for Baldwin Beach Park.

To be straight with you, this outlook is a tough one for the paddler. We’ve got a solid reef and point setup here that’s very consistent and handles a NNE swell perfectly, but the conditions are just not playing the game for a clean surf session for the vast majority of the next 16 days. The water is sitting at a pretty typical 81° for this time of year, so nothing to worry about there, but the wind and the quality of the surf are the real story.

Right from the get-go, Saturday the 29th of August, the wind is a cross-shore at 16 mph, and that remains the theme for the first full week. The swell is there, around 5 ft to 6 ft from the ENE with a short period of just 7-8 seconds, but the energy is low to moderate—280 to 466 in that combined energy reading. This is one of those setups that’s more wind-bump than proper surf. Real poor conditions with a chop.

We roll into the first week of September, and it’s more of the same. A bit more energy coming in, hitting 648 to 614 on the 4th, but the wind stays gnarly from the ENE, going cross-onshore and making it messy. It’s still short period, so the waves lack any real punch or shape. Honestly, for a beach-and-reef spot like this, with that strong cross-onshore wind and poor quality, the setup looks a fair bit more interesting for kite surfing than a paddle session.

Now, the real tease comes on the weekend of the 5th and 6th of September. The swell bumps up significantly. On Saturday the 5th afternoon, we see an 8 ft swell from the ENE, period jumps to 11 seconds, and the combined energy rockets to 1753—that’s moderate but pushing strong. Then Sunday the 6th morning, it hits 13 ft from the ENE with a 10-second period, and the energy value is 3231. That's a lot of water moving! But the wind is just a deal-breaker. Saturday is still a cross-shore chop, and Sunday the 6th afternoon it turns into a strong cross-onshore at 28 mph, making it downright messy. The morning of the 6th is a *marginal* call at best, but only for the most experienced chargers who don’t mind a battle. That 13 ft swell is expert-only territory, and with that wind, it’s going to be a washing machine.

After that pulse, it tapers off. The second week from the 7th onward sees the swell drop back to 5 ft to 7 ft with a short period again, and the energy falls back into the 300-500 range. The wind is still persistent from the ENE, keeping it cross-shore and choppy. The last few days from the 12th of September see the swell drop right off to under 3 ft, and there’s just nothing to get excited about.

So, the honest read is this: there are no true standouts for a clean surf. The only moment that even has potential is the morning of Sunday the 6th of September, but you need to be a local expert with a big board and a short fuse for frustration. If you're a beginner, don't even look at that 13 ft day. For everyone else, this is a 16-day window where the forecast is a blank run for Baldwin Beach Park. It’s frustrating, but it happens here. The consistency of the break means it won't be like this forever, and the forecast can change, so keep an eye on it.

Stay patient,
Rusty.

Read more