Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next couple of weeks.

The first half of this run is a real mixed bag—some decent swell energy rolling in, but the wind is gonna be a bugger for most of it. The real standout, the one you want to circle on the calendar, is Wednesday, July 29th. The rest of the time? It’s a fight. There’s a long stretch from Saturday, July 25th through Tuesday, July 28th where the surf is just plain poor. Then we get a little glimmer of hope, followed by a whole lot of average.

Let’s break it down. The main event is Baldwin Beach Park (reef and point). The water temp is sitting at 80°F, which is about average for the time of year.

The first few days—Saturday and Sunday the 25th and 26th—are a write-off. We’ve got a moderate breeze blowing from the ENE, making for a cross-shore chop on a 6ft to 4ft, short-period swell (8 to 15 seconds). The combined energy is moderate (434 to 939), but it’s all messy. The surf is just junk.

Monday the 27th is more of the same: cross-onshore winds, 4ft to 5ft swell, with moderate energy (839 to 972). The “poor surf conditions” tag says it all. Tuesday the 28th gets bigger, with a 7ft to 8ft, long-period swell (13 seconds) from the east. The combined energy jumps to strong levels (1596 to 2519). But the wind is still cross-onshore, and there’s a risk of thunderstorms. This one is marginal at best—only for the experienced crew, and even then, it’s a gamble.

Here’s your chance. Wednesday, July 29th. That’s the day. The wind swings light from the ESE, going cross-offshore, and the sky is clear. The swell drops to a clean 6ft to 7ft from the NE, with a shorter period of 10 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (486 to 766). The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the best window. It’s clean, it’s the best shape of the week. The break is very consistent, and while it can get crowded, it’s worth it for this one.

After that, from Thursday the 30th all the way through the weekend of August 9th, the wind turns back to a cross-shore mess from the east and ENE. The swell drops back to 3ft to 5ft, and the period is often short (8 seconds or less) with weak to moderate energy (144 to 1048). The water stays warm, but the conditions are just “poor” or “marginal” for days on end. The surf is on offer, but it’s not gonna be pretty. Stick to the morning of July 29th if you want a proper session.

Rusty.

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