Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be honest with you – this is a rough stretch. We’re looking at Baldwin Beach Park, and for the first week, it’s a battle. We’ve got persistent cross-shore winds, mostly from the east and east-northeast, blowing at 12 to 16 mph, and that’s chopping up the surface something fierce. The swell is there, starting around 4 ft on Tuesday afternoon, building to 6 ft by the weekend, but the quality is just not there. The wave energy is moderate, hitting 229 (moderate) to 431 (moderate) through this period, but with that short period swell of 7 to 8 seconds and the constant wind, it’s a messy, bumpy wave. The finder is calling it poor surf conditions the whole way through Wednesday afternoon, July 22nd, we see a bump in period to 12 seconds and energy jumps to 586 (moderate), but it’s still cross-shore and the score is a 1 out of 10. Honestly, from Tuesday, July 21st through Saturday, July 25th, it’s a write-off for quality surfing.

Now, we’ve got a notable shift coming. Sunday, July 26th morning, the swell period stretches out to 16 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 992 (strong). The swell comes in at 4 ft from the east, but the wind is still cross-shore and the conditions are marginal. This is a tease. By Sunday afternoon, the energy is even higher at 1226 (strong), but the wave’s still 5 ft and the wind goes cross-onshore, so it’s choppy. The real standout window looks to be from Monday, July 27th, through Thursday, July 30th. Monday morning has 6 ft east swell with a 14-second period, and energy is massive at 1313 (very strong). The wind is cross-onshore from the NE at 12 mph, which is still not ideal, but the power is there. It’s only scoring a 1 out of 10 in the finder, so it’s marginal.

The best of the bunch, and the only one I’d get excited about, is Thursday morning, July 30th. For the first time in the forecast, we get an offshore wind – a light 6 mph from the NNW. The swell is 6 ft from the NE, with a 10-second period, and energy is 650 (strong). This is clean. The finder gives it a 2 out of 10, which is the highest score in the whole run. This is the one to circle. The wind will be light, the waves will have some shape, and for Baldwin Beach Park (a reef and point setup), an offshore wind like that is a golden ticket. The water temperature is sitting at 80°, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

After that, we slide back into the same old story. Friday, July 31st, through the end of the run on Wednesday, August 5th, it’s back to cross-shore winds, short period swell, and poor surf. The energy drops back to moderate levels (271 to 614), and the conditions are just not worthwhile. The last week of the forecast is a long, flat gap with nothing to recommend.

So, if you’re a punter looking for a wave, your best bet is that Thursday morning, July 30th. Get on it early, because the afternoon wind swings back east and spoils it. The rest of the time, you’re fighting the wind and the chop. It’s a tough outlook, but that one morning might just be worth the wait.

Stay safe out there.
Rusty.

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