Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

Alright, straight up, the first few days are a bit of a write-off. We’ve got some swell running, but the wind is just a mess. We’re looking at a stretch of poor conditions from Wednesday the 2nd right through the end of the first week. The wind is howling out of the east at 19 mph, turning the ocean into a lumpy, cross-choppy mess. The swell is there, around 6 ft to 7 ft, but it’s short-period windswell (7-8 seconds) and the cross-shore breeze is just ruining any chance of a decent wave face. You’d be paddling your heart out for nothing. The combined energy is moderate at best, around 456 (Friday morning) to 579, but it’s all just messy energy.

The wind eases a touch heading into the weekend of the 4th and 5th, but it’s still cross-onshore. The swell picks up a bit more size and period, hitting 7 ft to 7 ft with a period of 13-14 seconds from the ENE. The combined energy jumps into the strong range, hitting 1683 on Friday afternoon. But the wind is still dirty, keeping it in the marginal zone. It’s not totally hopeless, but it’s definitely not a priority.

The standout window, and the one I’m getting a little excited about, is actually a bit further out. Look at Tuesday the 8th. The wind swings around to the southeast, giving us a clean, cross-offshore breeze. The morning of the 8th, we’ve got a clean 6 ft of swell, and the combined energy is a moderate 833. Later in the day the swell drops, but the clean conditions are a real treat after the week of chop. This is the best session on offer, and it’s not even close. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

After that, we go back into a funk. From the 9th through the 12th, it’s back to poor conditions with cross-shore and cross-onshore winds, short-period ENE swell, and weak energy (272 to 528). The surf is just not cooperating.

There is a little flicker of hope on Sunday the 13th. The wind drops out, with a light breeze from the NE at 3-6 mph. The swell is 7 ft to 8 ft from the east, but it’s short-period (7 seconds) windswell with a moderate combined energy of 902. It’s still marginal, but with light wind, it might be a bit more fun than the raw numbers suggest. It’s a gamble.

The real long-range potential, and I mean *potential*, is on Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th. The swell comes from the east-southeast with a period of 10-12 seconds, and the wind is a gentle cross-shore. On Wednesday afternoon, we’re looking at 7 ft of swell with a combined energy of 1050. That’s a solid, strong signal. But it’s two weeks out, so treat it like a promise from a drunk surfer – nice to hear, but don’t book the day off work just yet. The conditions are still a bit messy, but it’s the best looking wave period in the second week.

All in all, it’s a tough forecast. The clean conditions are very hard to find. If you’ve got to get wet, make it Tuesday morning the 8th at Baldwin Beach Park. It’s a reef and point break, very consistent, and the cross-offshore wind will be a welcome change. The wave is 6 ft from the ENE, and with the clean conditions, it’ll be your best bet. Just be aware it can get busy, so get there early.

Rusty.

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