Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a good hard look at what Baldwin Beach Park has cooking for us over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – it’s gonna be a long wait for anything decent.

Right now, and for the next ten days or so, the surf is pretty much a write-off. We’ve got a moderate cross-shore breeze blowing, mostly from the ENE at around 12 to 16 mph, which is putting a nasty cross-chop on the surface. The swell is hanging around 4 to 6 ft, but the period is short, just 7 to 8 seconds, so it’s weak and disorganised. The combined energy is moderate at best (readings are in the 200s to 400s), but the conditions are just poor. The water temp is 79°, which is about average for this time of year, so that’s one small win for your toes. But for a paddle? Forget it. From Tuesday the 7th all the way through to Friday the 17th, the forecast is a flat “poor surf conditions” – that’s ten solid days of junk. It’s going to feel like a long stretch.

Now, there is a little glimmer of hope when we get to Saturday the 18th of July. The swell picks up to 6 to 7 ft, and the period finally stretches out to a much nicer 9 to 10 seconds. The combined energy jumps right up into the strong range (1142), so there’s some real push behind it. The wind is still cross-onshore, though, and the report calls it “marginal” – choppy and a bit of a mess. This is a reef and point set-up, so a long-period swell like this (over 8 seconds) should wrap in nicely and offer some shape, but the wind is going to spoil the party a bit. If you're desperate, this is the first sign of life.

Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th are a bit more promising, but still in that “marginal” zone. Swell sits around 7 to 7 ft, period drops back to 8 seconds, and the cross-shore winds are still moderate. The energy is still strong (over 500), but it’s not clean. For a beginner, anything over 5 ft starts to get challenging, and 7 ft+ is firmly in intermediate territory.

The real standout here, and I mean the *only* standout in the whole outlook, is Saturday morning the 18th of July. That’s the day with the most juice behind it (1142 combined energy) and the longest period (10 seconds). Even with the cross-onshore wind, if you can find a bank that’s working, there could be a few fun ones. But don’t expect perfection – this is a “might be alright if you’re keen” kind of day, not a “call in sick” kind of day. Crowds are listed as ‘often’, so expect company on the better waves.

For the rest of the window into the 22nd, it’s back to the same old story: middling swell and moderate cross-shore winds. Nothing to get excited about.

So, the bottom line: the first ten days are a total loss. Saturday the 18th is your best bet, but keep your expectations in check – the wind is going to be working against us. It’s a reef and point, so the long-period groundswell should give it some shape, but it’s not going to be glassy. Hold tight, and check back with me.

Rusty.

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