Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a seat and listen up. Rusty here.

First thing you need to know, we’re looking at a pretty bleak stretch ahead. The next week and a half is a write-off. The water temp is sitting around 79°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so that’s one small comfort, but it’s not going to help the waves.

The only spot on the menu is Baldwin Beach Park. It’s a reef and point setup, very consistent, and it likes the swell from the NNE. The problem is, for the next 11 days, the wind is a constant cross-shore or cross-onshore breeze, and the wave energy is weak. The combined energy of all swells is just in the 120 to 357 range, which is barely a ripple. Swell heights are small, mostly between 3 ft and 5 ft, and the period is short, between 6 and 8 seconds. That’s just wind chop, mate. The surf report calls it “poor” or “marginal” every single day. There’s nothing to recommend here.

Then, out of the blue, on Saturday, July 25th, the afternoon shows a tiny 2 ft swell but with a period of 14 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy jumps to 383. Still, the wind is a moderate cross-shore, so it’s a bit messy. The next day, Sunday July 26th, the morning looks a little more promising with a 3 ft swell from the east and a very long period of 16 seconds. The combined energy rockets up to 638. That’s a real pulse of energy. The wind is a moderate cross-shore, which is a bit of a bummer, but it’s not howling.

The real standout, though, is Monday, July 27th. The morning session has a 4 ft swell from the east, with that same very long 16-second period. The combined energy is a strong 816. The wind is a gentle cross-shore with only a slight cross-chop. That’s about as clean as it’s going to get. That long period groundswell is going to wrap into the point at Baldwin Beach Park, and with the lighter wind, it’ll be lined up. It’s a point break, so it handles that long-period energy well. The water is still warm, and the crowds are “often” here, so expect a few locals out. That Monday morning is the best bet in the entire 16-day window, but it’s a long way off, so keep an eye on the forecasts.

The rest of the month, from the 28th to the 29th, the energy drops back down to the 380-425 range, and the wind is light cross-onshore. It’s still not worth paddling out for.

Rusty.

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