Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here with a look at what’s coming up for Baldwin Beach Park over the next couple of weeks.

First off, I gotta be straight with you—this is a tough stretch. The forecast is pretty grim for any proper surfing. From Sunday the 5th of July right through to Thursday the 17th of July, it’s a long run of poor conditions. The wind is stuck blowing from the east and east-northeast at 12 to 18 mph, which keeps the surface messy with a nasty cross to cross-on chop. Swell is coming from the east-northeast, mostly around 5 ft to 6 ft, but the periods are short—7 to 8 seconds—which means weak, wind-affected waves with no real punch. The combined energy of all swells directed here is mostly in the 200s to low 400s (moderate energy on paper), but the wind just ruins it. This is the kind of setup that would be more interesting for a kite surfer than a regular paddle surfer.

The water temperature is around average for this time of year, so nothing crazy there. Baldwin Beach Park itself (part of Maui) is a reef and point break that’s very consistent and usually good for beginners, but with the wind all over it and the swell coming from the wrong direction (the optimum is north-northeast), it’s just not working.

Now, looking toward the back half of the window, there’s a tiny glimmer. On Friday the 17th of July, we finally see the wind drop a little to 9 mph from the east-northeast in the morning. The swell is still small at 5 ft from the east, with a short 7-second period, and the combined energy is just 323 (still moderate). The wave comment changes from “poor” to “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” and the score moves to a 1 out of 10. This is the only time in the whole 16 days where anyone might even paddle out. It’s not good—definitely not a standout—but if you’re desperate and the tide lines up, you might find a rideable bump. After that, Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th slip back into poor conditions with similar onshore wind.

So, to sum it up: there’s a big gap of almost two weeks with no surf to get excited about. That Friday morning on the 17th is the only window that’s even close to doable, but it’s marginal at best. I’d keep an eye on the forecasts—surf can change, but right now, this is a rough run for the North Shore of Maui.

Rusty.

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