Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righteo, let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for Baldwin Beach Park. I’ll be straight with you, mate – this forecast is a tough one. The whole 16-day window is pretty grim, with next to nothing worth paddling out for. The first week and a half is constant poor surf conditions, with that moderate breeze either cross-shore or cross-onshore, making everything messy. From the morning of 25 August all the way through to the 3rd of September, it’s a write-off. The swell is coming from the east and east-northeast, mostly around 4 to 5 feet, but the period is short – between 6 and 8 seconds – so it’s weak and unshaped. The water is sitting at a warm 80°, which is pretty normal for the time of year. The wind is never clean enough to do us any favours.

There’s a bit of a shift starting on 4 September. The swell period jumps to 13 seconds on that Friday, which is a proper groundswell, and the combined energy climbs to over 500. But it’s still small – only 3 feet – and the wind stays cross-onshore or cross, so it’s messy. That’s a shame, because a long-period swell from the east at this reef and point setup could be lovely, but the wind spoils it. Then on the 5th and 6th of September, we get the best we’re likely to see: the swell picks up a little to 5 to 6 feet, still with a long period of 12 to 13 seconds, and the combined energy hits 824 on the Saturday morning. It’s still only marginal, and the wind is still cross-shore, but the energy is there. The trouble is, the swell is coming from the east-northeast, and this spot really wants a north-northeast swell to fire properly. So it’s a bit of a mismatch. The crowd here can be a factor – it’s listed as “often” crowded – but with conditions this average, I wouldn’t stress about it.

Honestly, the standout window is the morning of 5 September (Saturday) through to the afternoon of 6 September (Sunday). The swell has got some grunt, with that 12-13 second period, making it a proper groundswell. The point and reef setup will handle that long period better than a beach break would. But don’t expect perfection. The wind won’t be offshore, it’ll be cross, and the conditions will be “slight cross-chop” at best. For a surfer who’s keen for something, it’s the only semi-rideable window. If you’re a beginner, the swell is just over 5 feet at times, and with that long period, it might feel a bit pushy for you. For the experienced crew, it’s not too big, but the lack of clean wind will limit the fun. If the wind was glassy or offshore, we’d be laughing.

After that, 7 September onwards sees it drop right off again, with fresh cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions, plus the risk of thunderstorms. Not worth the drive.

So, there you have it. A long dry spell with one brief, marginal chance over the first weekend of September. It’s one of those forecasts where you keep an eye on the charts and hope the wind shifts in our favour.

Rusty.

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