Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s coming down the line for this spot. It’s a bit of a tough stretch ahead, to be honest.

We’re looking at Baldwin Beach Park, a reef and point break that’s very consistent. The water temp is sitting at 79°F with a 0.9°F anomaly, so it’s pretty average for the time of year. Right now, the surf is not cooperating at all. The combined swell energy is moderate, around 371 (moderate wave energy) but the wind is a solid 16 mph cross-on from the ENE, and that’s just wrecking any chance of a clean wave.

From Monday afternoon, the 6th of July, all the way through to the morning of Sunday the 19th, it’s a straight run of poor surf conditions. Every single session is scored as poor. There’s no break in that stretch. The swell hangs around 4 ft to 6 ft from the ENE, but the cross-shore wind (12 to 16 mph) keeps everything choppy and unrideable. Thursday the 16th through Saturday the 18th sees the swell drop to about 3 ft, but the period also drops to a short 6 to 8 seconds, so even with less wind, it’s not doing anything worthwhile.

Now, there’s a couple of flickers of hope right at the very end of the forecast window. On Sunday morning, the 19th of July, we see the swell size at 5 ft from the E with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 576 (moderate wave energy). The wind is still cross-shore at 12 mph, but the forecast calls it “marginal” rather than poor. It’s not a standout by any stretch, but it’s a hint things might start to shift.

Then, on Monday the 20th of July, the swell direction shifts to east with a very long period of 18-19 seconds. The energy kicks up strong, hitting 720 and 753 (strong wave energy). The problem is the swell height drops to only 2 ft to 3 ft. That’s a lot of energy for very small waves. The wind is still cross-shore at 12 mph, so it’s clean-ish, but it’s going to be tiny, long-period groundswell. For a point and reef break like Baldwin, that long period could actually shape up a nice little wave if it can wrap in, but it’s going to be a gamble. Again, it’s marginal.

Tuesday the 21st of July drops off again. The period is still long (15-16 seconds), but the swell is down to 3 ft-3 ft and the energy drops to 333-486, with cross-shore winds. It’s just not enough to get excited about.

So, summing it up: there is no good surf on offer within the first two weeks. The entire period from the 6th to the 18th of July is a write-off. The only faint glimmers come around the 19th and 20th of July, but those are long-range and highly marginal. If you’re desperate, the tiny long-period swell on the 20th might offer a few clean, weak waves for a very mellow longboard session, but don’t hold your breath. Otherwise, it’s a blank run. For this area, with this kind of consistent exposure, it’s unusual for it to stay this poor for so long, so the odds are it will turn around eventually.

Stay patient.

Rusty.

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