Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what we’ve got on the horizon. To be straight with you, this outlook is a mixed bag, so let’s dig into it.

The first sign of any real surf comes in on Monday the 27th, but it’s nothing to get excited about. We’ve got a 5ft swell rolling in from the east at Baldwin Beach Park (reef and point), with a solid 14-second period on the clock. The wave energy is moderate though, sitting at (955). The problem is the wind: a stiff 9 mph cross-onshore from the NE is going to mess things up, making it choppy and poor. The water temp is sitting right on 80°F, which is pretty much average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Tuesday the 28th brings a bigger pulse, with swell pushing up to 8ft to 8ft from the NNE/ENE, and the energy jumps right up (2335). Even with offshore winds from the NNE, the conditions are still marginal at best, and at that size, this is expert territory only.

Now, keep your eyes on Wednesday morning the 29th. That’s our standout moment. The swell drops back to a comfortable 6ft from the ENE, and the period is a shorter 9 seconds, but the real magic is the wind. We’re looking at glassy conditions with a 3 mph breeze from the ESE. That’s light air, and it’s going to clean the place right up. The wave energy is moderate (430), but for a few hours, Baldwin Beach Park should offer some clean, glassy lines. It won’t be huge, but for the paddle out and the smooth faces, this is the best on offer in the whole 16-day window.

After Wednesday, it’s a long, frustrating slog. From Thursday the 30th right through to Monday the 10th of August, we’re in a stretch of poor or marginal conditions. The swell sticks around, mostly between 4ft and 7ft from the east, but the wind doesn't let up. It’s a constant cross or cross-onshore breeze, from 12 to 22 mph, and for the most part the periods are short, around 8 seconds. The energy stays low to moderate, mostly under 800, and the wave comments are all “poor” or “marginal.” This is going to be choppy, lumpy, and generally uninviting for a regular paddle surfer. Honestly, with that much wind and a beach-and-reef setup, the conditions might be more interesting for a kite surfer than someone on a longboard.

There is a slight uptick on the 4th of August, where the period stretches back to 11-12 seconds, but it’s still with that cross-shore wind. The 7th and 8th of August also see some 7ft swell, but again, the wind spoils the party.

So, here’s the bottom line: if you want a surf, aim for Wednesday morning the 29th. For the rest of this period, you’re better off waiting for forecasts to change. We’ve got a long gap of poor conditions ahead, but that’s just the way it goes sometimes. Keep your eyes peeled.

Rusty.

Read more