Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight – the next couple of weeks are a tough watch for clean, quality waves. The whole 16-day window is a grind of cross-shore winds and choppy conditions, with nothing that’s really going to get the heart pumping. The only break on the radar is Baldwin Beach Park, and it’s a long, frustrating stretch before anything worth paddling out for even nudges into the “marginal” category.

From Tuesday, August 18th right through to Saturday, August 29th morning, it’s a write-off. Almost two weeks of poor surf, with the combined swell energy (147 to 816) mostly moderate at best, and that wind is stuck cross-onshore or cross-shore, making everything lumpy and messy. For a spot that’s a reef and point setup that usually loves an NNE swell, the incoming ENE to E swell and those onshore breezes just aren’t doing it any favours. The water temp is sitting at 80°F which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Look, the only time this forecast even whispers possibility is from Saturday, August 29th afternoon through to Tuesday, September 1st. The swell bumps up – we’re talking 7 ft to 10 ft from the E, with period lengthening to 8-10 seconds (that’s moderate groundswell energy) and the combined energy (576 to 1524) climbing from moderate to strong. Those bigger days – Sunday, August 30th especially, with 10 ft swell (1524 energy) – are solid, but here’s the rub: it’s all cross-shore wind, still choppy, and the wind state says moderate cross-shore with a cross-chop. For a reef and point break like Baldwin, that wind direction (E to ENE) is just off, making it messy rather than clean. And at 10 ft, that’s expert-only territory – beginners should stay well clear.

The first truly standout moment? Honestly, there isn’t one. If you’re desperate, the gentlest breezes on September 1st (Tuesday) with 9 mph cross-shore winds and swell around 7 ft give you a slight cross-chop, but it’s still just marginal. The best call is probably the early Tuesday, September 1st morning – 7 ft E swell, 8-second period (627 energy), with a gentle cross-shore breeze. It’s not glassy, but it’s the least offensive option in a grim run. Crowds at Baldwin Beach Park are listed as “often,” so expect company even on these average days.

In short, this is a long dry spell with no real highlights. The end of August into early September has size, but the wind is the enemy. If you’re a kiter, that cross-shore wind on the bigger days might be your jam – for paddle surfing, it’s a pass. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d save the wax.

Rusty

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