Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about Baldwin Beach Park on Maui.

Right now, the outlook is pretty grim, and it stays that way for a long stretch. We've got a run of poor surf conditions that lasts all the way from the start of the forecast period through to the morning of Monday, July 20th. That's nearly a week and a half with nothing worth paddling out for. The wind is locked in from the east and east-northeast, blowing at a steady 12 to 16 mph, which is cross-shore or cross-onshore. That's keeping everything chopped up and messy. The swell is coming from the ENE with a short period, mostly around 7 to 8 seconds, which means weak, crumbly waves. The combined swell energy is in the moderate range, but it's not doing us any favors with that wind. The water temperature is about average for this time of year at 79°.

It's a pretty blank run for paddle surfing. To be honest, with that consistent cross-shore wind and the beach-break setup, this stretch looks more interesting for kite surfing than for paddling.

Now, things do get a little more interesting around the end of the forecast period. On Monday, July 20th, in the afternoon, there's a shift. We get a pulse of long-period groundswell from the east with a period of 18 seconds and a combined wave energy of 734. It's still a small wave, only 3 ft, and the conditions are still "marginal," but it's a very different kind of energy. It's a really long-period swell for a beach break, which tends to be a bit fat and straight, but at a point-and-reef spot like Baldwin Beach Park, it could actually shape up into something clean and walled. The wind is still a cross-shore from the ENE at 12 mph, but the break is well-suited to handle that direction. This continues into the morning of Tuesday, July 21st, with a 4 ft swell from the east at a 16-second period and even more energy at 774, but the wind starts shifting cross-onshore in the afternoon.

So, for the entire 16-day window, there are no true standouts. The best on offer is that brief window on Monday afternoon, July 20th, and Tuesday morning, July 21st, when that very long-period groundswell arrives. It’s a promising shift, but it's conditional on the wind staying manageable and those tides working out. After that, it fades back into weak, short-period junk.

Rusty.

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