Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. It’s pretty quiet out there for a while, so don’t be in a rush. For the first solid week, the wind and swell just aren’t playing nice together, so we’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf conditions. The first real glimmer of hope doesn’t show up until Monday the 17th of August with a 6ft swell from the ENE, but even then it’s only a marginal call. The wind stays cross-shore most of the time, and the wave energy is moderate (517) but it’s not clean enough to get excited about. The pick of the whole 16-day window is Baldwin Beach Park (Maui). It’s a very consistent reef and point setup, so it’s usually reliable, but the wind is the problem. The water temp is about 80°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. The swell direction is coming from the ENE, and this spot loves a NNE swell, so it’s not quite hitting the optimum angle. Most days the swell is between 4ft and 5ft, with periods of just 5 to 9 seconds – that’s short-period, wind-driven stuff, not the kind of groundswell that gets your heart racing. The crowds are “often” here, so expect company. Honestly, the best conditions we see are on the 20th of August, Thursday morning, when the wind drops to a gentle 9 mph cross-shore, and the swell is 6ft. The energy is moderate (329) and the surf is still “marginal,” but it’s the closest thing to a clean window we get. Even then, it’s not a standout. The 15th and 16th of August see swell pushing 7ft to 7ft, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, making it lumpy and choppy. That size is getting into the "experts only" territory, especially with the wind messing it up. It’s a real shame because the energy is strong (735 on the 15th), but without the wind, it’s a write-off. This is a beach-and-reef setup, and with that much cross-shore wind and chop, you’d be better off kiting than paddling out on most days. There’s a solid 12-day gap from the start where nothing is worth mentioning, so don’t hold your breath. The 17th is the first day where you might get a fun, messy wave, but it’s not a guarantee. The 20th is your best bet, but it’s still not a classic. Hang tight, the forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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