Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's on the table for our local stretch. It's a mixed bag, but there's a flicker of something special way down the line if you've got the patience.

First up, I gotta tell you, the next week or so is looking pretty average. We're looking at a long stretch of so-so conditions. Most days the wind is coming from the east-northeast, light to moderate, which puts a cross-shore or cross-onshore chop on everything. The swell is small, mostly under 5 ft, with short periods under 10 seconds, so it's lacking any real punch. The wave energy is weak to moderate, with readings mostly in the hundreds.

Saturday 12th September kicks it off with a tiny 2 ft swell from the ENE in the morning, bumping up to 4 ft in the afternoon. But it's all wrapped up in a cross-shore wind that's making it choppy. Water temp is a very pleasant 80°F, which is bang on average for this time of year. The rest of that week and into the next just looks poor or marginal, with similar wind and small, weak swell.

There's a slight bump on Thursday 17th September where the swell pushes up to 7 ft and the energy jumps into the 800s, but the wind is howling at 16 mph from the east, making it a choppy, cross-shore mess. It's really only going to interest the kite crew, to be honest.

The real standout, the one that gets a bloke excited, is way out at the end of the forecast window. On Sunday 27th September, things get interesting. Check this out: the swell direction swings around to the NNW with a very long period of 19 seconds in the morning and 18 seconds in the afternoon. That's a proper groundswell, and the energy readings are massive – hitting 920 and then 1506, so strong to very strong. The swell heights are a manageable 3 ft and 5 ft, which will be perfect for a point or reef setup like Baldwin Beach Park itself.

But there's a big caveat. This is a very long-period groundswell. At a beach break, it might break too straight and be tricky, but at a reef and point set-up like Baldwin, it could be absolutely magic. The wind is still a moderate cross-shore from the ENE, which isn't perfect but it's clean enough to work with. This is a promising long-range call, but like I said, it's two weeks out, so keep an eye on it. It's by far the best chance of some really memorable surf in this 16-day run. Crowds are likely at this spot, and it's a very consistent break, so you'll have company if it comes together.

Signing off,
Rusty.

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