Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. This whole stretch is looking pretty bleak for surf for a long time. We’re talking about a dry spell that runs from now, right through until the middle of next week. The only break on the radar is Baldwin Beach Park, a reef and point setup that’s very consistent, but even with that consistency, it’s just not working for us.

The water is sitting at 80°F which is about average for this time of year, so nothing to get excited about there.

From Tuesday the 11th all the way through to Saturday the 15th of August, it’s a total write-off. The wind is coming from the east and east-northeast, blowing cross-shore to cross-onshore at 12 to 19 mph, which is just ruining the surface. We’re looking at a messy chop, with combined swell energy that's weak to moderate (203 to 864). The swell is small, around 4ft to 8ft, and coming from the east-northeast, which is okay, but the period is a short, weak 7 to 10 seconds. It’s just not got any punch.

We get a bit of a pulse on the 16th, with swell height hitting 8ft to 8ft, and the energy jumps up to 1337 to 1401, but the wind is a disaster. On Sunday morning we’ve got a 25 mph cross-onshore, and by Sunday afternoon it’s a near gale from the east at 37 mph, creating a washing machine. That’s not surfable, that’s a survival mission.

Finally, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. On Monday the 17th of August, we see a shift. The swell is dropping a bit to 10ft from the northeast, with a period of 11 seconds, and the combined energy is a strong 2305. The morning wind turns to a cross-offshore from the east-southeast, which will clean things up nicely. The forecast notes "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions," but this is the only window that looks remotely interesting. However, at 10ft, this is a wave for experienced surfers only. The northeast direction is a good match for the optimum swell direction for this spot (NNE), so it has potential if the tide plays ball. The afternoon gets cross-shore again, so the morning is the only window.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. From Tuesday the 18th all the way through to Wednesday the 26th of August, the swell drops right back to less than 3ft, with weak, short-period energy and persistent cross-shore winds. It’s a long, flat stretch.

So, the best on offer is a very narrow window on Monday morning the 17th of August at Baldwin Beach Park. It’s not ideal, but it’s the only thing that’s got any size and a shot at clean conditions. For the rest of this 16-day stretch, and for most of the first week, it’s best to leave the board in the shed.

Rusty.

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