Baldwin Beach Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you about Baldwin Beach Park. Looking at this 16-day window, it's a pretty grim run for paddle surfing.

Right from the start on Thursday the 10th, we've got a 5ft ENE swell, but it's short-period at 7 seconds, and the 16 mph east wind is smacking it right across the face. The water temp is sitting at a fairly normal 80°, so nothing unusual there for this time of year. But the surf quality? It's just poor. That combined wave energy is weak at (359), and the whole setup is messy.

This pattern basically locks in for days. Through the 11th, 12th, and 13th, the swell dribbles down to under 3ft, still with cross and cross-onshore winds. Friday the 11th has a cleaner 11-second period, but the wind is still on it, keeping things choppy and uninviting. We're looking at a long, flat, and bumpy stretch right into the middle of the month.

Around the 16th and 17th of September, the swell tries to pick up a bit. On Thursday the 17th morning, we see a 7ft swell from the ENE with a 9-second period and moderate wave energy climbing to (617). But the wind is a solid 16 mph from the east, keeping it a messy, crumbly cross-shore. It's not clean, it's not organized. For most, it's a pass.

The only real flicker of hope shows up way down the line, on Tuesday the 22nd and Wednesday the 23rd of September. On the 22nd morning, the swell jumps up to 7ft from the east with a 10-second period and the combined wave energy hits a strong (1593). The wind drops to a more manageable 13 mph from the ENE, though still cross. Wednesday the 23rd morning has a 6ft east swell, period still around 10 seconds, with even lighter 9 mph ENE winds. The energy is still significant at (1137). This is the standout, but it's still a "marginal" call with that cross wind. The waves will have some push, but it'll be lumpy. For a reef and point break like Baldwin, the longer 10-second period could set up some better-shaped lines than the beachies, but it's still not the dream. If you're an experienced local and desperate, the 22nd might offer a session, but don't expect perfection.

To be blunt, this forecast is a long dry spell. The first real, even halfway decent-looking surf is not until the 22nd, which is nearly two weeks away. It's that kind of run where the kites might have a better time on the chop than a paddler will on the poor-quality waves. Keep your board in the car, but don't wake up early for this.

Stay patient,
Rusty

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